Do we really want to mess with success?

[PromoTheRobot]

Do any of you remember watching Let's Make A Deal on TV? The guy dressed like a banana has $1,000 in his hand, but can trade it for what's in the box. He does it, only to discover he traded a grand for pile of dog doo.

 

The threads about Biron remind me of that. Some people are convinced the unknown is always better than what you have. Now if you are having a season like the Bills, you figure what do you have to lose? But the Sabres are on an incredible roll, in a pretty incredible season. Why would you want to mess with that?

 

I know the arguements...Biron won't be this good forever...his trade value is high...Miller is our goalie of the future...But all these are based on the premise that a trade will make the Sabres better. How much better can you get? If you have a Full House in poker, do you go for 4 of a kind?

 

I think these posters ignore the odds...trading a hot goalie...busting up a winning combination...will more likely hurt the team than help it.

 

PTR

[hopeleslyobvious]

As being one of Miller's bigger advocates, I guess I should reply.

 

Once again I can say Miller is the better goalie and you can say Biron is the better goalie until we're blue in the face, and you know what, at the end I'm still going to say deal Biron, and you're going to say why mess with the winning streak, but here's still some thoughts.

 

The Sabres are having a great run right now, but Miller was also on a roll and the team won 6 of the first 8. Plus I think we might not have seen him at his best yet.

 

I'd also like to point to the Tampa game. Miller convinced me in that game, he's at his best when the pressure is on. He made some great saves on some odd man rushes, at least one breakaway, and was perfect in the shootout. IMO Biron is much weaker in that department.

 

So, you don't think a trade is going to make the team better? I think there are a few areas on this team where we are weak...such as Defense, so if we can bring in a good defenseman, then we need to make a deal. I also think we need to make a deal because we can't hold on to three goalies forever. I also think we need to make a deal for Biron, because this is when we are going to get the most for him. I don't think anyone is pushing to trade Biron for someone who is not going to make the team better.

 

How much better can we get? We can beat Ottawa for starters. If we want to go far in the playoffs we have to be able to beat Ottawa. Sure maybe they will choke again this year, but do you really want to take that chance?

 

I'm not ignoring the odds. If the odds tell us anything it's just a matter of time before Marty's back to his usual self.

 

And who's to say that they won't be an even better team with Miller back in net?

[Guest Amazing Grant]

What makes this a difficult situation is that the Sabres simply can't hold onto 3 goalies forever. Someone has to go, and the best time to trade is when their value is high.

 

I agree that the Sabres are playing hot right now and we shouldn't try to tinker with what's working. But if Miller, who has already shown that he can be at least as capable as Biron if not more so, can play at the same level and the team's play doesn't drop off, why not deal Biron?

 

Biron's play lately doesn't prove anything that we don't know. He's streakier than a four year old's underpants. Remember the past few seasons when Biron would play awful for the middle parts of the season and then light it up toward the end when the Sabres were already out of the playoff race?

 

On the other hand, Miller has shown evidence of more consistency and he's still improving.

 

If we wait too long, Biron's value will drop and we'll have missed our chance. The delicate part is whether or not we can keep the confidence of the team as high as it is now with Miller in goal.

[shrader]

The problem with Miller is that there is a very limited amount of games where he has supposedly proven his consistency. His stats were not all that great this year. You may say that he's got the one thing that does matter, wins, but can't we say the same about Marty?

 

One trend in Marty's game that people seem to be ignoring is that he gets better later in the year. He did this on bad teams over the last few years. How will he look if he does the same with a good team playing in front of him?

[Taro T]

...

So, you don't think a trade is going to make the team better?  I think there are a few areas on this team where we are weak...such as Defense, so if we can bring in a good defenseman, then we need to make a deal.  I also think we need to make a deal because we can't hold on to three goalies forever.  I also think we need to make a deal for Biron, because this is when we are going to get the most for him.  I don't think anyone is pushing to trade Biron for someone who is not going to make the team better.

 

How much better can we get?  We can beat Ottawa for starters.  If we want to go far in the playoffs we have to be able to beat Ottawa.  Sure maybe they will choke again this year, but do you really want to take that chance?

 

I'm not ignoring the odds.  If the odds tell us anything it's just a matter of time before Marty's back to his usual self.

...

Hopeless, nice post. You stole most of my points.

 

One thing to add to all this is, no matter how much some of us want to see a trade or not see a trade, Darcy will not make a trade until he is convinced he is getting the best value possible. I am certain he is working the phones now, but I am not certain that we will see any movement before February.

 

Right now it's fun to consider what the next moves for the Sabres should be and what (if anything) can be done to make them a legitimate SC contender (if not this year, then in the next couple of years). As long as Ottawa is around, the Sabres, as currently built, are not legitimate contenders (even with an improved D I don't see them as legitimate contenders, but if they get it they are a heck of a lot closer to being legit). They are in the playoff hunt, and as such, are darkhorse contenders. It's a heck of a lot more fun to be discussing what the Sabres should do to improve (and due to the youth of the team, standing pat is not completely out of the question if the determination is such that the Sabres cannot get good enough this year to legitimately challenge for the SC, though I for one want to see them convert Marty (in a package if necessary) into an improved defense) when they are playing well than it was the last few years.

[hopeleslyobvious]

The problem with Miller is that there is a very limited amount of games where he has supposedly proven his consistency. His stats were not all that great this year. You may say that he's got the one thing that does matter, wins, but can't we say the same about Marty?

 

One trend in Marty's game that people seem to be ignoring is that he gets better later in the year. He did this on bad teams over the last few years. How will he look if he does the same with a good team playing in front of him?

Yes his stats aren't the best...but I know in the past you have liked to take the Ottawa games out of Biron's stats (At least I think it was you, if it's someone else I'm sorry). Do the same for Miller.

[Taro T]

The problem with Miller is that there is a very limited amount of games where he has supposedly proven his consistency.  His stats were not all that great this year.  You may say that he's got the one thing that does matter, wins, but  can't we say the same about Marty?

 

One trend in Marty's game that people seem to be ignoring is that he gets better later in the year.  He did this on bad teams over the last few years.  How will he look if he does the same with a good team playing in front of him?

Marty has played better in the 2nd half of the last 2 seasons, but in '01-'02 he started fairly well, tailed off in December and then finished fairly well. Right now IMHO he is playing as well as he has ever played. As such, I don't expect to see him play much better, although I do hope he does.

 

I don't expect to see him take his game up another level, he is currently doing what I had hoped he would this year - play like it's March in the 1st half of the season.

 

One question to consider on Marty is, is he a RFA or an UFA this off-season? He turns 29 in August. I don't know what date the cutoff is in the CBA, but 29 year olds with 4 seasons in the NHL will be unrestricted for '06-'07. This may be one more reason to put him on the trading block now.

[shrader]

Marty has played better in the 2nd half of the last 2 seasons, but in '01-'02 he started fairly well, tailed off in December and then finished fairly well. Right now IMHO he is playing as well as he has ever played. As such, I don't expect to see him play much better, although I do hope he does.

 

I don't expect to see him take his game up another level, he is currently doing what I had hoped he would this year - play like it's March in the 1st half of the season.

 

One question to consider on Marty is, is he a RFA or an UFA this off-season? He turns 29 in August. I don't know what date the cutoff is in the CBA, but 29 year olds with 4 seasons in the NHL will be unrestricted for '06-'07. This may be one more reason to put him on the trading block now.

He doesn't tail off going into the second half of the season. That's the important part. Honestly, I don't think that past carries all that much weight here right now. I just bring it up because it's as valid of a point as mentioning past streaky play.

 

His free agency status is an interesting question. I'm sure someone will dig that up at some point (probably you, dave).

[Allan in MD]

Right now (and I truly mean right now) you can quite possibly obtain a number 2 or 3 defenseman for Marty. The luxury of this is that you are probably not going to hurt yourself appreciably in goal if you do this. Marty's run, great as it is, should not lead to the perception that Miller and Mika are diminished commodities. They can probably carry this team a long way given their respective skills and the fact that that their performances should only improve as they gain more experience.

[Saber61]

Well marty has turned me into a believer... i was a fan of his back when he first took over the reigns from Hasek and then lost touch but like all band wagon jumpers (and yea ill admit to it) he's swayed me back... he's played excellent and some of the saves i saw tonight against dallas were incredible... either it was pure skill or pure luck... i think skill had alot to do with it though... if he can keep this going then all the power to him... if not then miller it is... either way we have something to fall back on in the goaltending dept.

[Kristian]

The problem with Miller is that there is a very limited amount of games where he has supposedly proven his consistency. His stats were not all that great this year. You may say that he's got the one thing that does matter, wins, but can't we say the same about Marty?

 

One trend in Marty's game that people seem to be ignoring is that he gets better later in the year. He did this on bad teams over the last few years. How will he look if he does the same with a good team playing in front of him?

For once you and I agree on something about Marty, hence my other post about him learning that the season starts in October, not late January.

 

I've wondered before if this late season surge is something he'll be going through yet again, and whether or not such a surge could actually carry through into a playoff series.

 

If so, look out.

[apuszczalowski]

Everyone says we cannot keep 3 goalies. Why not?

 

Is it a money issue? cause if people have forgotten were atleast 10 mil below the salary cap.

 

Is it becuase we are going to hurt one of the goalies feelings if he doesn't get to play? BooHoo, they are all grown men, learn to deal with it.

 

The only reason I can think of is trade bait. We have an abundance of goalies so if we need to get someone for another position, we have something we can dangle out in front of other teams to make a deal with.

 

Either way, I am not opposed to trading a goalie if the right deal comes along, as long as it helps improve the sabres in the end.

[shrader]

Everyone says we cannot keep 3 goalies. Why not?

 

Is it a money issue? cause if people have forgotten were atleast 10 mil below the salary cap.

 

Is it becuase we are going to hurt one of the goalies feelings if he doesn't get to play? BooHoo, they are all grown men, learn to deal with it.

 

The only reason I can think of is trade bait. We have an abundance of goalies so if we need to get someone for another position, we have something we can dangle out in front of other teams to make a deal with.

 

Either way, I am not opposed to trading a goalie if the right deal comes along, as long as it helps improve the sabres in the end.

The main problem with carrying 3 goalies is that it thins out the roster depth a bit. Look at the team right now. We have one extra forward (Peters). On top of that, with the Kalinen finger injury, we don't have an extra defensemen. What happens if the team is out on the west coast and someone gets injured in a morning skate like Miller did? Do they have enough time to fly a guy across the country for a game? Why fill up a roster spot with a guy you know is never going to play?

[Taro T]

The main problem with carrying 3 goalies is that it thins out the roster depth a bit.  Look at the team right now.  We have one extra forward (Peters).  On top of that, with the Kalinen finger injury, we don't have an extra defensemen.  What happens if the team is out on the west coast and someone gets injured in a morning skate like Miller did?  Do they have enough time to fly a guy across the country for a game?  Why fill up a roster spot with a guy you know is never going to play?

One additional problem that hasn't reared its head yet but could down the line is: the #3 guy (Mika at this point) will likely end up at some point creating distractions for the rest of the team intentionally or, more likely, unintentionally. 1/3 of the Sabres D-corp is Finn and they have 2 more Europeans there. Any thoughts on how it will affect team chemistry if these guys get upset that Mika is basically wasting away? The guy has shown he can play at the NHL level (as have the other 2) and he seems to be well liked by his teammates. Eventually when the Sabres hit the inevitable low week or 2, does his treatment create distractions?

 

I am not saying that it WILL create distractions, but it definitely could create distractions. That is one of the biggest problems with carrying 3 goalies. Mika has been a good soldier to this point from all appearances and maybe he has the temperament to keep from becoming a distraction, let's hope he does.

 

Carrying 3 goalies also has a potential, albeit slight, to cause players outside the organization to look poorly on the Sabres. I know DeLuca and some others voiced concerns over how potential free agents viewed the Sabres as an organization. Does appearing to let 1 (or 2) NHL caliber goalies sit and rot on the bench or the press box send a good message to other players around the league? My guess is this is a small concern, but it is one other thing to consider when determining what to do with the goaltending.

 

These are intangibles that do factor into whether the 3 goalies have more value on this team or if they are more valuable to the team with one of them wearing a different uniform. When Darcy receives an offer for a goalie that he feels is more valuable to the Sabres than that goalie he will make a trade. History suggests that we have some time to continue this discussion before that occurs.

[Jim Bob]

The really tough part in this whole debate is that nobody here really knows what the Sabres could get for Biron, Noronen, or Miller right now.

 

Everybody has their opinions and guesses on what the Sabres could get. But, without really knowing, it's hard to have a really intelligent debate on the topic.

 

For instance, would it make sense to move Biron if nobody was offering up a player or player(s) that would help this team immediately and were merely offering up a package of consisting of futures (pick(s) and/or prospect(s))?

 

And don't forget the budget restraints both capwise and real dollarwise that Regier is obviously dealing with.

 

I'm sure St Louis would give up Tkachuk or Weight straight up for Biron. But, I'm also sure that Quinn and Golisano wouldn't want to add that much salary as well.

 

At first blush, I'd tend to fall on the side of "Don't mess with a streak".

 

But, once Miller is back, has gotten some NHL game action under his belt, and the team looks good with him in net, I'd always be open to a trade that makes the team better.

 

But, it would have to be a heck of a deal for me to want to roll the dice on moving forward this year with only Miller and Noronen.

[Peter]

It seems like most of you guys are really anxious to trade Marty.

 

I really don't understand that.

 

If we are going to have a discussion about trading one of the goalies, should Miller be off limits in that discussion?

 

I am not saying we should trade either guy. I am just saying that I sure would not trade Marty.

 

There is nothing wrong with keeping two good goaltenders. Unless some team offers us something that was so over the top that we could not turn it down, why make the trade. Some of you guys have been talking about trading Marty for a third line guy or second tier defenseman (I am not referring to Jovo).

 

It seems as though some of you just want to get Marty out of the way as quickly as possible and hand the job to Miller.

[shrader]

It seems like most of you guys are really anxious to trade Marty.

 

I really don't understand that.

 

If we are going to have a discussion about trading one of the goalies, should Miller be off limits in that discussion?

 

I am not saying we should trade either guy. I am just saying that I sure would not trade Marty.

 

There is nothing wrong with keeping two good goaltenders. Unless some team offers us something that was so over the top that we could not turn it down, why make the trade. Some of you guys have been talking about trading Marty for a third line guy or second tier defenseman (I am not referring to Jovo).

 

It seems as though some of you just want to get Marty out of the way as quickly as possible and hand the job to Miller.

What it all comes down to is what you want in return. If you want a player who can halp out this year, Marty is the one to move. If you only want a prospect or a draft pick, you move Mika or Miller.

 

Darcy's in a tough situation right now and needs to decide which move is best for the team. Has Marty turned the corner towards stardom or is he overachieving right now? Is Miller ready to step up right now and perform to the level Marty is playing at? These are tough questions and the most important thing is that Darcy does not rush to judgement.

 

 

A bit off topic: as I was typing this, I just realized that this situation reminds me of the San Diego Chargers QBs.

[Taro T]

It seems like most of you guys are really anxious to trade Marty.

 

I really don't understand that.

 

If we are going to have a discussion about trading one of the goalies, should Miller be off limits in that discussion?

 

I am not saying we should trade either guy.  I am just saying that I sure would not trade Marty.

 

There is nothing wrong with keeping two good goaltenders.  Unless some team offers us something that was so over the top that we could not turn it down, why make the trade.  Some of you guys have been talking about trading Marty for a third line guy or second tier defenseman (I am not referring to Jovo). 

 

It seems as though some of you just want to get Marty out of the way as quickly as possible and hand the job to Miller.

No Miller shouldn't be and isn't off-limits. However, he does appear to be the goaltender of the future for this team. It may turn out to be Mika or someone else, but since '03-'04 he has appeared to be the heir-apparent.

 

Since Ryan appears to be the future and his true value (high or average) won't be known until the future and there is risk inherent in waiting for that future, I would be very surprised if someone put an offer on the table that knocked Darcy's socks off now. I really have no good feel for what someone would offer for Ryan but I would be very surprised if the offer was as valuable as Darcy thinks Ryan is.

 

Mika right now would probably command a 2nd round pick or a young guy with a lot of potential. Trading Mika would not likely bring in a player that would clearly upgrade the team this year, although he could be included in a package to do that.

 

I think that Marty right now could either get Buffalo a player that would help now or could definitely be combined with some combination of the Sabres vast array of 2nd / 3rd liners (Peters and possibly Mair are the only non-3rd liner or better forwards on this team IMHO) to get a player that would help now.

 

Remember, Marty is the oldest of the bunch and most likely would remain a Sabres property for the shortest time of the 3. The fact that Marty will become an UFA much sooner than either of the other 2 should remain a factor in who stays and who goes. There are only 2 ways I see Marty not being the traded goalie when the inevitable trade occurs. 1 is if Lindy had gone to Darcy and said "I want Mika to be the guy that goes". 2 is if Mika commands a guy with a TON of potential who would very likely make future squads a SC contender assuming Ryan continues to develop or Marty plays out of his skull as the Sabres may realize that it will take more than a top D-man to make this team a legitimate contender THIS season.

 

You are correct that there is nothing wrong with keeping 2 good goalies, after Marty or Mika is traded away (or even Ryan for that matter) the Sabres will have 2 good goalies. Right now they have 3, and that can create problems.

[Allan in MD]

What it all comes down to is what you want in return.  If you want a player who can halp out this year, Marty is the one to move.  If you only want a prospect or a draft pick, you move Mika or Miller.

 

Darcy's in a tough situation right now and needs to decide which move is best for the team.  Has Marty turned the corner towards stardom or is he overachieving right now?  Is Miller ready to step up right now and perform to the level Marty is playing at?  These are tough questions and the most important thing is that Darcy does not rush to judgement.

 

 

A bit off topic: as I was typing this, I just realized that this situation reminds me of the San Diego Chargers QBs.

Good analogy. Biron/Brees Miller/Rivers works for me as long as the Sabres keep winning. But I would trade Marty while he's hot. We have alot of upside to fall back on in goal and could really solidify our D for the long haul.

[LabattBlue]

Do any of you remember watching Let's Make A Deal on TV? The guy dressed like a banana has $1,000 in his hand, but can trade it for what's in the box. He does it, only to discover he traded a grand for pile of dog doo.

 

The threads about Biron remind me of that. Some people are convinced the unknown is always better than what you have. Now if you are having a season like the Bills, you figure what do you have to lose? But the Sabres are on an incredible roll, in a pretty incredible season. Why would you want to mess with that?

 

I know the arguements...Biron won't be this good forever...his trade value is high...Miller is our goalie of the future...But all these are based on the premise that a trade will make the Sabres better. How much better can you get? If you have a Full House in poker, do you go for 4 of a kind?

 

I think these posters ignore the odds...trading a hot goalie...busting up a winning combination...will more likely hurt the team than help it.

 

PTR

I'm torn on whether to trade Biron along with a draft pick and/or prospect to get a quality blueliner in return. Here's why...

 

-Miller's meltdown at the beginning of the 03-04 season makes me wonder about his psyche.

 

-In the 10 games, Miller started at the beginning of the year he gave up 3 goals or more 7 times.

 

-Miller has yet to play a full season at the NHL level, therefore he is an unknown commodity.

 

 

That being said, I'm not sure Biron has really raised his play to another level. He has had hot streaks before(typically in the 2nd half of the year) and I'm not sure if this level of play is here to stay or not. Come playoff time, the Sabres are going to need another blueliner and if they could score a top 2 defensemanin atrade packaging Biron, that would really help.