Re-Signing Alert: Tim Connolly

[MBD]

I'll predict $7.75 - $8.25 million total for the 3 years.

Good call. B-)

[shrader]

maybe there is something in the CBA where if he can't play he doesn't count against the cap ... although they'd still have to pay him, and I can't imagine anyone insuring that contract with his head ...

Dave_b, where are you? What loophole are we missing?

 

Players out due to injury do not count against the cap. The perfect example of this was New Jersey this year. Elias was out for most of the season and did not count against the Devils cap. The same will happen next season in Philly with Forsberg. I'm not sure if they have to be out for a certain amount of time for this rule to kick in though.

[LabattBlue]

Players out due to injury do not count against the cap. The perfect example of this was New Jersey this year. Elias was out for most of the season and did not count against the Devils cap. The same will happen next season in Philly with Forsberg. I'm not sure if they have to be out for a certain amount of time for this rule to kick in though.

They may not count against the cap, but the contracts are guaranteed. Therefore, I believe if Connolly can't play, but refuses to retire, he will continue to collect paychecks even if he is waived.

[Taro T]

maybe there is something in the CBA where if he can't play he doesn't count against the cap ... although they'd still have to pay him, and I can't imagine anyone insuring that contract with his head ...

Dave_b, where are you? What loophole are we missing?

Players on long term (10 games or 24 calendar days) IR do not count against the salary cap.

 

If Timmy's concussions are career ending, the Sabres would be on the hook for the full value of the contract. So Tom is taking a risk with regards to his pocketbook and the team's budget, but he is not taking a risk with regards to the team having an effective lower salary cap than everyone else. (It's how the Devils were over the $39MM when Elias was recovering from hepatitis.)

 

Darcy said in the WGR interview today that Timmy's injury is "uninsurable". I took this to mean that any insurance company that would cover him (above the league's standard policies) would charge at least 50% of his salary due so it isn't worth getting.

 

As near as I can figure, the "loophole" you're missing is that the Sabres are reasonably confident that he will play professional hockey for at least the next 3 years and were very afraid that they would not be able to afford him after next year if they didn't lock him into a 3 year deal. IMHO, as long as he got less than $9MM and plays for at least 2 years the way he did last year, then the Sabres got a bargain because Timmy could very easily be worth $4.5MM/year if he's healthy. (EDIT: Wow, what a difference a year makes. Who here, that isn't stoned, would have thought ANYONE other than Timmy's mom would ever be able to make that last statement with a straight face?)

[KansasPat]

From the AP:

 

The Buffalo Sabres and Tim Connolly avoided salary arbitration, agreeing to a three-year, $8.9 million contract Friday.

The deal represents a hefty raise for Connolly, who made $1.03 million last season while registering a career-high 55 points. He will make $2.2 million next year, $3.2 million the following season and $3.5 million in 2008-09.

[syr6987]

8.7

[nfreeman]

Listen for yourself...

 

http://www.wgr550.com/ondemand.php

 

You are right. he did say he couldn't guarantee anything. However, I think if you listen to the entire interview, he sounds very confident that timmy will be back at 100% this year and probably at the beginning of the year. He said a number of times that the medical advice they had received from the specialists made them very comfortable.

 

Yes, it's certainly a risk. As another poster mentioned, Darcy said this contract is not insurable. If Connolly goes down this year with another concussion this year, we're all going to feel sick about it. But is it that much greater of a risk than any other player would be? The concussions were almost 3 full years apart -- it's not like he's getting them every 6 months. Briere missed more games than Timmy did this year, but no one is saying he shouldn't get a big contract b/c of injury history.

 

I'll also point out that even though the contract wouldn't count against the cap if he gets hurt again, this doesn't really matter from the Sabres' perspective. They will still be on the hook for the $3 million per year and it will still count against their internal payroll budget. But that is even more reason to be optimistic about his health -- ie the guys who are really on the line on this got comfortable with the risk. To me, this is great news because the guys who really know what the story is felt confident enough to invest a lot of money in Timmy for 3 years.

 

Come on Danny. There's a dynasty in the making here. If we and you get off to a good start, Darcy will offer you $20 million for 4 years. Sign on the dotted line. You can be a star here and lead this team to a cup.

 

Go Sabres!!

[BetweenThePipes00]

Well taking all that into account (that is everything between my last post and now), no one can ever say Golisano and Regier are cheap. They might get stuck holding the bag but they took a shot on a guy with huge upside who is one of "our" guys in an effort to win. I'm sure the same people who rip them for being cheap will rip them for spending foolishly if Connolly goes down, but that's the nature of the business.

Still very interested to hear the breakdown and if it is backloaded like Tallinder and Pomminstein's deals are, I would think it has to be.

EDIT: Just saw the other thread ... $2.2 this season ... very manageable ...

[Bmwolf21]

You are right. he did say he couldn't guarantee anything. However, I think if you listen to the entire interview, he sounds very confident that timmy will be back at 100% this year and probably at the beginning of the year. He said a number of times that the medical advice they had received from the specialists made them very comfortable.

 

Yes, it's certainly a risk. As another poster mentioned, Darcy said this contract is not insurable. If Connolly goes down this year with another concussion this year, we're all going to feel sick about it. But is it that much greater of a risk than any other player would be? The concussions were almost 3 full years apart -- it's not like he's getting them every 6 months. Briere missed more games than Timmy did this year, but no one is saying he shouldn't get a big contract b/c of injury history.

 

I'll also point out that even though the contract wouldn't count against the cap if he gets hurt again, this doesn't really matter from the Sabres' perspective. They will still be on the hook for the $3 million per year and it will still count against their internal payroll budget. But that is even more reason to be optimistic about his health -- ie the guys who are really on the line on this got comfortable with the risk. To me, this is great news because the guys who really know what the story is felt confident enough to invest a lot of money in Timmy for 3 years.

 

Come on Danny. There's a dynasty in the making here. If we and you get off to a good start, Darcy will offer you $20 million for 4 years. Sign on the dotted line. You can be a star here and lead this team to a cup.

 

Go Sabres!!

 

First, regarding Darcy's comments about whether Timmy will be back for training camp and the regular season - I think it was a case of Darcy talking out both sides of his mouth - he never really reveals anything in his interviews without a ton of caveats, warnings, and more.

 

My initial reaction was, wow - that's a big contract for someone with a history of concussion problems. From what I have read about concussions, their effects are cumulative, so it doesn't really matter if their six months or a year apart - they effect gets progressively worse. That being said, I am confident that the guys in charge of the team's payroll - those cheap SOBs TG, Darcy & Larry - wouldn't have taken a flier on Timmy without verifying that there is a reasonable chance that they'll get three years' worth of play from Timmy.

 

I'm glad to see Darcy continuing to knock out the RFA contracts, one by one - I'd like to see Guastad signed next, followed by a nice long-term deal for Ryan Miller. Get it done, Darcy...keep burning up the phone lines, and get them signed!

[bob_sauve28]

I don't know if I've ever done a 180 so quickly on a signing, but on WGR this afternoon Darcy said that Connolly is not even exercising yet, can't guarantee that he will be ready for training camp or even the regular season. If that is still the case 3 months after being injured, why sign him to a 3 year deal worth almost 3 million per year? Seems like a big risk and overpayment for a guy not even recovered from a concussion.

Well I sure if he can't play he won't collect the money. I would hope its a non-binding agreement where most of the money is in the last two years

[Taro T]

Well I sure if he can't play he won't collect the money. I would hope its a non-binding agreement where most of the money is in the last two years

You can hope whatever you want. This is an NHL 1 way contract. If Timmy can't play due to an injury, he will be owed the $'s remaining on his contract.

[SabresOnTheWarpath]

5 mil for a team leader that could put in 90-100 points next year in a full season

 

or

 

5 mil for a guy who already missed one full year after getting a concussion and could miss significantly more time

 

Guys, I have found someone that made me prefer having Darcy as the GM

 

Briere is not a 100 point scorer. He is a good player, who God love him, hit the jackpot in arbitration. If the Sabres want to overpay him, so be it. All I'm saying is that Connolly changes the dynamic of this team. He WAS our powerplay, and he developed into a true number one center who plays both ways last year. The Sabres without Connolly will not go very far. As seen in the Carolina series, without Connolly our PP was awful, and overall the offense struggled. Briere dissapeared against Carolina, and his huge game 6 OT goal was a lucky floater from the point that found its way to the back of the net. Yes I'd love to have Briere on the team next year, but it would have been a MUCH bigger loss if Connolly was gone.

 

As far as concussion concerns, you have to believe that if they were willing to committ that much money to timmy he must be OK.

[LabattBlue]

You are right. he did say he couldn't guarantee anything. However, I think if you listen to the entire interview, he sounds very confident that timmy will be back at 100% this year and probably at the beginning of the year. He said a number of times that the medical advice they had received from the specialists made them very comfortable.

 

I did listen to the entire interview. I heard him say that Connolly will be back this year, but you can't dispute the fact that 3 months later, Connolly can't even exercise. Keep in mind that a couple of weeks from now he can go for a ride on the bike, get dizzy and then be set back 3 more months.

 

I hope for the best because TC seems to have turned his game around, but Keith Primeau just keeps coming to mind.

[apuszczalowski]

Briere is not a 100 point scorer. He is a good player, who God love him, hit the jackpot in arbitration.

Given a full season this year he would have came damn close to 100, thats why I said he could be a 100 point scorer.

 

Connolly is a key piece to this team, but is a liability due to his concussions. Each hit he takes could easily end his career, so they are really taking a chance giving him a long term deal.

 

I'm glad they took the chance, and hopefully Briere will also be back and a longer term deal is signed in January

[Kristian]

EDIT: Wow, what a difference a year makes. Who here, that isn't stoned, would have thought ANYONE other than Timmy's mom would ever be able to make that last statement with a straight face?)

 

I was thinking exactly the same :)

[X. Benedict]

Just keep that head up Tim.

 

I think giving him a three year guaranteed contract shows the

organization isn't lacking in class.

[Bmwolf21]

Given a full season this year he would have came damn close to 100, thats why I said he could be a 100 point scorer.

 

Not singling you out, apus, but I think people should stop referring to Briere as a 100-point scorer. Sure, he was on pace to finish around 90-100 points, but given another 32 games, there's no telling whether he maintains that pace, goes into an extended slump, whatever, and finishes with 60-75 points (just above his career average.) Point is, there is no way to know if he maintains a 1.2 PPG pace.

 

I am curious, though - all the guys banging the drum to bring him back @ $5M+ -- would you also carry the torch for his re-signing if he did, in fact end up with around 75 points, like Max?

 

Look, I like Briere as much as anyone (well maybe a little more than DeLuca ;)) and I hope we can bring Danny back, but $5M does seem awfully high for a one-dimensional player that has never cracked 65 pts for a single season. We can talk about the would've, should've, could've all we want, but the fact remains that he didn't stay healthy enough to get it done last year, so all we can do is speculate on what might have been (I say full year, he finishes around 80-83 points, which is not worth $5M in my book.