Simple Plan

[Rayzor32]

I know that a GM's job is a lot tougher than it appears, and that for the most part, Darcy's done solid work..however, all the hand-wringing and whining over Briere's salary is foolish. We have a small core of players that we must keep and pay a premium to do so. The rest are interchangable parts - they say this is the "Patriots model" and that we're following that blueprint for success. Therefore, our untouchable core is as follows:

 

Miller

 

Drury

Briere

Hecht

Vanek

 

Tallinder

Campbell

Spacek

 

All the rest are all replaceable for cheaper/younger talent - they may be good players, but they're not essential. Therefore, before crying about $5MM going to Briere, you can make room as follows:

 

1) Trade Biron for a cheap backup and high draft pick = savings of $1.5 MM

2) Dump Dumont and replace with Paille or Stafford = savings of $1 MM

3) As painful as it is, sign and trade Connolly for prospects and hope that Novotny can hold his own until Zagrapan is ready = savings of likely $2 MM (assuming an arbitator will only double Timmy's salary)

 

Suddenly, Briere's $3MM raise isn't that big a deal, we keep the face of our franchise and arguably our best offensive player. We have lots of good young talent waiting in the wings to replace the "good but not great" players on this roster -- it's the key cogs that must be kept together.

[shrader]

One thing that I think is worth pointing out: I don't think it was a coincidence that our offense disappeared after Connolly got hurt in Ottawa.

[BetweenThePipes00]

I know that a GM's job is a lot tougher than it appears, and that for the most part, Darcy's done solid work..however, all the hand-wringing and whining over Briere's salary is foolish. We have a small core of players that we must keep and pay a premium to do so. The rest are interchangable parts - they say this is the "Patriots model" and that we're following that blueprint for success. Therefore, our untouchable core is as follows:

 

Miller

 

Drury

Briere

Hecht

Vanek

 

Tallinder

Campbell

Spacek

 

All the rest are all replaceable for cheaper/younger talent - they may be good players, but they're not essential. Therefore, before crying about $5MM going to Briere, you can make room as follows:

 

1) Trade Biron for a cheap backup and high draft pick = savings of $1.5 MM

2) Dump Dumont and replace with Paille or Stafford = savings of $1 MM

3) As painful as it is, sign and trade Connolly for prospects and hope that Novotny can hold his own until Zagrapan is ready = savings of likely $2 MM (assuming an arbitator will only double Timmy's salary)

 

Suddenly, Briere's $3MM raise isn't that big a deal, we keep the face of our franchise and arguably our best offensive player. We have lots of good young talent waiting in the wings to replace the "good but not great" players on this roster -- it's the key cogs that must be kept together.

 

Your theory is OK but the execution is a little flawed ... who exactly would give value for Connolly with the history of concussions? You don't mention Afinogenov, but I'd rather roll the dice on Connolly because you can get more dealing Afinogenov at this point.

 

anyway, like I said your theory is OK, there are a bunch of different ways to make it work, although many will argue that puting paille/stafford/novotny/Zagrapan in is a huge drop-off ... the real problem is not so much for this season, they could give Briere his $5 million and still keep most of it together ... it's just that the price of all these guys will keep going up and up and up ... people are hand-wringing because the cost of doing business isn't really being held down much by the new CBA like everyone expected.

[apuszczalowski]

The only reason for letting Connolly go would be for concerns over his health and weither every hit he takes will put him out for a couple games. Concussions only ge worse the more you have and after missing a year do to one, I don't think he will be able to bounce back so easily from others. Its a shame to see this considering he was starting to become a great player this year, but its a risk sigining himlong term or to a large deal.

 

The only player I see on your list of untouchables that I might disagree with is Vanek. He has only played one year so far and spent time in the press box due to his play. He may become a great player, or another Satan (shows up and scores when he wants to) but its still a little early to call him untouchable. I would place Roy or Pomminstein ahead of him at this point in time.

[bob_sauve28]

I know that a GM's job is a lot tougher than it appears, and that for the most part, Darcy's done solid work..however, all the hand-wringing and whining over Briere's salary is foolish. We have a small core of players that we must keep and pay a premium to do so. The rest are interchangable parts - they say this is the "Patriots model" and that we're following that blueprint for success. Therefore, our untouchable core is as follows:

 

Miller

 

Drury

Briere

Hecht

Vanek

 

Tallinder

Campbell

Spacek

 

All the rest are all replaceable for cheaper/younger talent - they may be good players, but they're not essential. Therefore, before crying about $5MM going to Briere, you can make room as follows:

 

1) Trade Biron for a cheap backup and high draft pick = savings of $1.5 MM

2) Dump Dumont and replace with Paille or Stafford = savings of $1 MM

3) As painful as it is, sign and trade Connolly for prospects and hope that Novotny can hold his own until Zagrapan is ready = savings of likely $2 MM (assuming an arbitator will only double Timmy's salary)

 

Suddenly, Briere's $3MM raise isn't that big a deal, we keep the face of our franchise and arguably our best offensive player. We have lots of good young talent waiting in the wings to replace the "good but not great" players on this roster -- it's the key cogs that must be kept together.

I'm going to add Roy, Lydman, Pominville and even Kalinen to that list. Yes Kalinen. I'm not giving up on him. Max Afg. showed he was expendable with his poor playoffs. Hope we can keep him, but I just don't see it.

[Stoner]

One thing that I think is worth pointing out: I don't think it was a coincidence that our offense disappeared after Connolly got hurt in Ottawa.

 

Whoot, there it is. Bingo. I will always say it wasn't defensive injuries that cost us the Cup, it was the loss of Connolly. Rayzor, have you forgotten how absolutely brilliant Connolly was? If healthy, he has to be considered part of the core. A big if. Has anyone heard anything on Tim?

[Rayzor32]

Timmah had a great season and was outstanding in the playoffs -- BUT with limited payroll $$ can we risk paying a guy $2 MM a season when he is a significant health risk? Unfortuantely, I don't think we can take that risk. The Toronto's and New York's of the league can pay a guy top $$, and if he gets injured, replace him with a comparable player - we simply can't, especially when arbitrators are giving our guys HUGE rasies. We have some depth at center, and as much as I was amazed by Connolly's play, I think we'd be Ok with Drury, Briere and Roy as our top 3 centers this season (with Gaustad/Mair/Novotny splitting time as our 4th line centers)..

[Fronz1103]

Definetly agree on the suggestion that Timmy should be considered part of the core. This guy is becoming something great, unfortunatly he in repeatedly in the wrong spot at the wrong time. As frequent as he scores a highlight-reel goal he seems to have an injury. Which after stating that I also understand where people come from when they don't include him in their list of core guys. unfortunatly I haven't heard an update on his status as of late...however, if this guy IS ready by October, I would be extremely surprized

[nfreeman]

Good post. I largely agree -- the "Patriots model" only works if Brady and a couple other core guys are locked up (e.g. that defensive end, whose name escapes me), which the pats spent big money on.

 

However, Connolly is part of the core, injury history and all. PAFan is absolutely right about the O disappearing in the playoffs immediately after he got hurt. If I could fire up my magic wand and heal one of the guys we lost, it would've been Connolly. A couple of PP goals here and there and we would've won the cup.

 

Max is awfully close to being part of the core too, but if we have to lose one of him, Connolly or Briere, it has to be Max.

 

I certainly want to keep Vanek and Hecht too, but since neither of them is a FA this year, there isn't as much urgency in resolving their situations.

 

I'm cautiously hopeful/scared that we're going to figure out a way to keep Briere and test PAFan's theory of "if you build it they will come (and thus avert the financial ruin you risked by building it)".

 

Go Sabres.

[apuszczalowski]

Well, I don't think anyone will argue that Timmay is part of the core if Healthy, but he is one of those guys that they are really going to have to be very cautious with when resigning (Why did you not learn to keep your head up Timmy?)

 

Right now,I would be leaning a little closer to keeping Max over Timmy just because of injury history, but at 100% healthy, Timmy would be my choice over Max

[X. Benedict]

Timmy would be my choice over Max

 

Timmy, one could argue, became a complete player. PP, PK, etc. he was doing it all.

And I think more valuable than Max.

[nfreeman]

Well, I don't think anyone will argue that Timmay is part of the core if Healthy, but he is one of those guys that they are really going to have to be very cautious with when resigning (Why did you not learn to keep your head up Timmy?)

 

Right now,I would be leaning a little closer to keeping Max over Timmy just because of injury history, but at 100% healthy, Timmy would be my choice over Max

 

 

Fair enough, but I think we all when playing GM have to make this decision based on the info available to us. I'm willing to roll the dice and keep Timmy over Max notwithstanding the very real risks you identify. Is that a foolish move? Quite possibly. I guess I'm hoping that between a better helmet/mouthguard, him being more careful and maybe the league cracking down on head shots, this won't be a recurring thing.

 

It's likely I'm kidding myself, but I'll confess to all that he's my favorite player on the team and the thought of unloading him because of playing the percentages on injuries really depresses me.

[apuszczalowski]

Timmy, one could argue, became a complete player. PP, PK, etc. he was doing it all.

And I think more valuable than Max.

True, but he is going to be able to be much help if he is on the IR

[X. Benedict]

True, but he is going to be able to be much help if he is on the IR

Well, there is that.

[apuszczalowski]

Well, there is that.

Thats the point I was trying to make, if he is healthy, you keep timmy over Max, if the concussions are getting worse, he is the guy you let go.

[nfreeman]

Thats the point I was trying to make, if he is healthy, you keep timmy over Max, if the concussions are getting worse, he is the guy you let go.

 

 

It's also worth noting that Max missed about half a season before the lockout with a concussion. If he'd been the one who got creamed in game 2 vs. Ottawa and not Timmy, we'd be saying these things about him.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that it's too early to make the decision to dump Timmy based on concussions. Yes, the signs are there, but it could also go the other way and he could be a conn smythe winner for us next year.

[apuszczalowski]

It's also worth noting that Max missed about half a season before the lockout with a concussion. If he'd been the one who got creamed in game 2 vs. Ottawa and not Timmy, we'd be saying these things about him.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that it's too early to make the decision to dump Timmy based on concussions. Yes, the signs are there, but it could also go the other way and he could be a conn smythe winner for us next year.

The problem with that is Max did not have to miss an entire season to get over his last concussion. Timmy is getting to the point where he could miss alot of time everytime he suffers one. If that is the case, is it worth the risk to keep him and sign him to a raise? Concussions are a serious injury, and could end up ending his career shorter then it should. The only way you dump Timmy now due to concussions is if he starts to show signs that he is going to take long periods of time to come back from them which it seems like he has been.

[Bmwolf21]

Timmah had a great season and was outstanding in the playoffs -- BUT with limited payroll $$ can we risk paying a guy $2 MM a season when he is a significant health risk?

 

Maybe Dave can elaborate on this, but does the CBA prohibit us from signing Timmy to a base contract with a bunch of incentives? Like a $500K base with bonuses for goals, assists, games played, etc.

 

It's also worth noting that Max missed about half a season before the lockout with a concussion. If he'd been the one who got creamed in game 2 vs. Ottawa and not Timmy, we'd be saying these things about him.

 

FWIW, Max missed 47 games in 2002-03, but I don't remember if the concussion was responsible for all 47 games.

[Taro T]

Maybe Dave can elaborate on this, but does the CBA prohibit us from signing Timmy to a base contract with a bunch of incentives? Like a $500K base with bonuses for goals, assists, games played, etc.

FWIW, Max missed 47 games in 2002-03, but I don't remember if the concussion was responsible for all 47 games.

Yes, it does for this season. He doesn't meet the criteria to recieve a contract containing performance bonuses.

 

Depending upon how many games he misses next season, he may be eligible in '07-'08 for a contract with performance bonuses in the 1st year.

 

Hopefully, he won't qualify for one next year either.

 

Also, the concussion wasn't responsible for ALL 47 games Max missed, it was responsible for ONLY 46 of them. :P