What is JJ Peterka worth and what are you signing for?

[LGR4GM]

He's an RFA. Had the 2nd most points on the team with 68, 3rd for goals at 27, and 2nd for assists at 41. -1.9xgf, not a lot of blocks or hits.

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

He was also 48th among NHL forwards in overall scoring and tied for 56th in goals.  He had the same number of goals as Boldy with 100 less shots.  

Only Wyatt Johnson (71 pts 33g), Tim Stutzle (79 pts, 24g) and Lucas Raymond (80 pts, 27g) had more pts for players in their age 22 or younger seasons.  JJP had more EV goals (21) and more EV assists (29) than the other 3 players mentioned above.  Stutzle was second with 19EV goals and 27 EV assists.

 Unlike the other guys Adams handed out long-term deals, JJP has steadily improved each season in the NHL.  He still has work to do on the defensive end, but unlike the Skinners of the world, he actually is improving there as well.

[SabreFinn]

6 years 7 milj. AAV. I think he might get 7,5 and 7 years from Adams, if KA is GM

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm thinking more like 5 years @ 6.5 per season.  We need to save a few $ for cap space to improve the D.

[dudacek]

Potential recent comparables:

• Lucas Raymond 8 years, $8.1M coming off 31 goals and 72 points
• Seth Jarvis 8 years, $7.4M, coming off 33 goals and 67 points
• Dylan Cozens 7 years, $7.1M during 31 goal, 67 point season
• Trevor Zegras 3 years, $5.7M coming off 23 goals, 65 points
• Matthew Boldy 7 years, $7M, during 31 goal, 63 point season
• Cole Caufield 8 years, $7.8M coming off 26 goals, 36 points (in 46 games)
• Alexis Lafreniere 7 years, $7.45M coming off 28 goals 57 points (3rd contract)
• Quinton Byfield 5 years, $6.25 of 20 goals, 55 points

Edited 4 hours ago by dudacek

[quill]

Peterka is worth whatever it will take to keep him here.

[dudacek]

If they want 7 or 8 years, it’s going to cost them around $8M.

Market for bridge hasn’t really been set, but I’m going to say around $6M?

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He was also 48th among NHL forwards in overall scoring and tied for 56th in goals.  He had the same number of goals as Boldy with 100 less shots.  

Only Wyatt Johnson (71 pts 33g), Tim Stutzle (79 pts, 24g) and Lucas Raymond (80 pts, 27g) had more pts for players in their age 22 or younger seasons.  JJP had more EV goals (21) and more EV assists (29) than the other 3 players mentioned above.  Stutzle was second with 19EV goals and 27 EV assists.

 Unlike the other guys Adams handed out long-term deals, JJP has steadily improved each season in the NHL.  He still has work to do on the defensive end, but unlike the Skinners of the world, he actually is improving there as well.

Fully agree. Do we bridge him for a year or 2, or just go 6-8yrs considering the history. 

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Potential recent comparables:

• Lucas Raymond 8 years, $8.1M coming off 31 goals and 72 points
• Seth Jarvis 8 years, $7.4M, coming off 33 goals and 67 points
• Dylan Cozens 7 years, $7.1M during 31 goal, 67 point season
• Trevor Zegras 3 years, $5.7M coming off 23 goals, 65 points
• Matthew Boldy 7 years, $7M, during 31 goal, 63 point season
• Cole Caufield 8 years, $7.8M coming off 26 goals, 36 points (in 46 games)
• Alexis Lafreniere 7 years, $7.45M coming off 28 goals 57 points (3rd contract)
• Quinton Byfield 5 years, $6.25 of 20 goals, 55 points

So 7.5 x 7ish

Capwages puts him at 6.6 x 6 as his estimate. I think we'll need to go a bit over that. 

Edited 4 hours ago by LGR4GM

[DarthEbriate]

The Capwages site's AFP Analytics estimates either 6 x $6.627M or  2 x $4.221M. I feel both of those are a touch low, without even including the palm trees and income taxes.

Anything in the 7-or 8-year range has to be with a floor of $7.5M.

Wyatt Johnson is the most recent forward signing of note with a 5 x $8.4M (coming off a 65-point season and in the midst of this year's 33-38-71).

 

Edit: Bah. @LGR4GM beat me to the Capwages estimate.

Edited 4 hours ago by DarthEbriate

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The Capwages site's AFP Analytics estimates either 6 x $6.627M or  2 x $4.221M. I feel both of those are a touch low, without even including the palm trees and income taxes.

Anything in the 7-or 8-year range has to be with a floor of $7.5M.

Wyatt Johnson is the most recent forward signing of note with a 5 x $8.4M (coming off a 65-point season and in the midst of this year's 33-38-71).

 

Edit: Bah. @LGR4GM beat me to the Capwages estimate.

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Fully agree. Do we bridge him for a year or 2, or just go 6-8yrs considering the history. 

So 7.5 x 7ish

Capwages puts him at 6.6 x 6 as his estimate. I think we'll need to go a bit over that. 

We’ve got the capflation that’s been confirmed since those comparables were signed, we’ve got the “Terry’s favourite” factor, we’ve got the whispers of not loving the city factor, and we’ve got the “his agent is Allen Walsh, who is already planting the offer sheet seed factor”.

I will be very surprised if it’s as low as $7.5M on term.

[Freeezo]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He was also 48th among NHL forwards in overall scoring and tied for 56th in goals.  He had the same number of goals as Boldy with 100 less shots.  

Only Wyatt Johnson (71 pts 33g), Tim Stutzle (79 pts, 24g) and Lucas Raymond (80 pts, 27g) had more pts for players in their age 22 or younger seasons.  JJP had more EV goals (21) and more EV assists (29) than the other 3 players mentioned above.  Stutzle was second with 19EV goals and 27 EV assists.

 Unlike the other guys Adams handed out long-term deals, JJP has steadily improved each season in the NHL.  He still has work to do on the defensive end, but unlike the Skinners of the world, he actually is improving there as well.

And a big reason our pp sucks is the guy can't enter the zone without turning the puck over or getting knocked off the puck

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Freeezo said:

And a big reason our pp sucks is the guy can't enter the zone without turning the puck over or getting knocked off the puck

Isn't entering the zone of the PP TNT and Dahlin's job?

[Freeezo]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Isn't entering the zone of the PP TNT and Dahlin's job?

I don't disagree with you of course. But you have watched the games. He gets his share

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Freeezo said:

I don't disagree with you of course. But you have watched the games. He gets his share

He's 22 and one of the best EV scoring forwards in the NHL.  He will continue to get stronger and smarter and likely improve his PP numbers.   By that time he'll be a pt a game player.  

[Archie Lee]

I was just thinking the other day:  What exactly is JJ Peterka.  He is going into the season where he will turn 24.  Perhaps interestingly, that was the age that Panarin and Kaprizov were when they first arrived in the NHL.  Peterka is coming off a 68 point NHL season (77 games), which is at least as impressive as the 62 point seasons that Panarin and Kaprizov had in their final KHL years (in 54 and 57 games respectively). In the trade deadline speculation re: Peterka to the Rangers, it was stated that Peca, who coached Peterka in Rochester, thought he could be a 100 point NHL player.  Does Peterka have that level of game-changing, impact ability?

 

 

[DarthEbriate]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

We’ve got the capflation that’s been confirmed since those comparables were signed, we’ve got the “Terry’s favourite” factor, we’ve got the whispers of not loving the city factor, and we’ve got the “his agent is Allen Walsh, who is already planting the offer sheet seed factor”.

I will be very surprised if it’s as low as $7.5M on term.

7.5 is the floor, for sure. 8M is likely, and that means Tuch can ask 8 as well on his extension.

 

If you're an opposing GM, $6.872M--$9.1M is a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd in the 2026 draft. If you're expecting to be a lottery team, then you probably don't offer up your 2026 1st. 

Here are the teams who currently have their picks that could try to poach him (they can always trade to reacquire their 2026 pick[s]):

BUF, CHI, DET, MTL, NSH, NYI, PHI, UTA

Of those, Philly, Utah, Montreal are probably the teams that I anticipate not being in the top 10 of the draft next season.

I include PHI because they have $26M in cap, plus seven picks in the 1st and 2nd round this year, they can easily move a couple of those to acquire players for next season so that Michkov and Konecny aren't alone. However, if Philly was to target a Sabre, I think McLeod would be a better fit for their roster.

[DarthEbriate]

4 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I was just thinking the other day:  What exactly is JJ Peterka.  He is going into the season where he will turn 24.  Perhaps interestingly, that was the age that Panarin and Kaprizov were when they first arrived in the NHL.  Peterka is coming off a 68 point NHL season (77 games), which is at least as impressive as the 62 point seasons that Panarin and Kaprizov had in their final KHL years (in 54 and 57 games respectively). In the trade deadline speculation re: Peterka to the Rangers, it was stated that Peca, who coached Peterka in Rochester, thought he could be a 100 point NHL player.  Does Peterka have that level of game-changing, impact ability?

With the correct center, yes, he could. But that pool of correct centers is about 8 players and none of them are on the Sabres or in their system.

[Archie Lee]

Just now, DarthEbriate said:

With the correct center, yes, he could. But that pool of correct centers is about 8 players and none of them are on the Sabres or in their system.

Well, then I think the answer is that he is not that level of a player.  Panarin and Kaprizov were/are game changing players without having a top-centre.