Let's talk Zach Benson....

[dudacek]

The line combo tool on Moneypuck is fun to play with but sure drove home to me how much time I've wasted arguing about depth charts and debating line combos.

The Sabres played close to 5,000 minutes of hockey this year. Their most common line combo (Tuch Thompson Peterka) played 188 minutes together.

I don't think I've ever once seen a Krebs/Benson line combo pitched, yet Peyton is one of Zach's most frequent linemates.

Once the puck drops, those charts might as well be tossed out the window. They certainly don't reflect what actually happens over the course of a season.

Just another reminder of what a chaotic game hockey is.

[DarthEbriate]

Yup. Your lines truly matter when you can catch a team after an icing and get your rested top line out against a winded 3rd line and get immediate pressure, or, when Sundin comes over the boards in the playoffs and you get Rasmussen-Zinger-Primeau off the ice after a 10-second shift and get Ward-Peca-Varada back out there to neutralize the threat (and then score against it).

[Pimlach]

Benson needs to develop a shot. 

Expected goals are not real,  he has to score more actual goals.  The only thing missing is the shot of a finisher.  

 

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, JP51 said:

I think Zucker is the baseline bar... clearly if you want to improve the team you are going to need that level at minimum... I wonder though how we get that done... I totally agree that they should not be expected to carry the heavy mail... I think of Peterka and Benson like the Roy/Pomenville and Vanek 3rd line in the good years... With Briere and Drury leading the first two lines they we allowed to acclimate and kind of gel together...   

I agree about Zucker.

I think Sabres have to do it mostly by trades. The McLeod trade was a good one (even if eventually Savoie is better). We need more like that and even bigger for even better. 

[LGR4GM]

7 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Benson needs to develop a shot. 

Expected goals are not real,  he has to score more actual goals.  The only thing missing is the shot of a finisher.  

 

That's not Benson's game. In fact I don't want him to be a shoot 1st finisher. 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

That's not Benson's game. In fact I don't want him to be a shoot 1st finisher. 

His doesn’t have to be a shoot first finisher necessarily, but a stronger shot will keep him in the top 6.  Shooting is the part of his games that is lacking.  Slow to release, and lacking speed.  

[JP51]

18 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I agree about Zucker.

I think Sabres have to do it mostly by trades. The McLeod trade was a good one (even if eventually Savoie is better). We need more like that and even bigger for even better. 

Indeed... I keep saying we need to make trades where we are getting the best player currently in the deal... 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, JP51 said:

Indeed... I keep saying we need to make trades where we are getting the best player currently in the deal... 

Which is the nice part about having too many prospects to be able to bring all to the big squad.  (Darn shame so few seem to be absolute home run can't miss guys; but still they have a bunch that could be 2nd liners or 2nd pairing with seasoning and maybe Östlund, or Helenius, or Poltopov should he ever come to NA, or Wahlberg, or one of the 2 really big Russian D-men or or will surprise.)

A good enough prospect or 2 can help sell the slight downgrade in top end guy the other team is getting by going for quantity over quality.  There's always somebody ready to take a small step back.

[LGR4GM]

20 hours ago, Pimlach said:

His doesn’t have to be a shoot first finisher necessarily, but a stronger shot will keep him in the top 6.  Shooting is the part of his games that is lacking.  Slow to release, and lacking speed.  

I'd definitely argue against the idea that Benson has a slow release. 

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, JP51 said:

Indeed... I keep saying we need to make trades where we are getting the best player currently in the deal... 

Yes, for too long the thinking has been down the road, build for the future and development. The thinking of "win now" should have started when we missed by 1 point but since it didn't, it's definitely what has to be the full thought process now. 

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Which is the nice part about having too many prospects to be able to bring all to the big squad.  (Darn shame so few seem to be absolute home run can't miss guys; but still they have a bunch that could be 2nd liners or 2nd pairing with seasoning and maybe Östlund, or Helenius, or Poltopov should he ever come to NA, or Wahlberg, or one of the 2 really big Russian D-men or or will surprise.)

A good enough prospect or 2 can help sell the slight downgrade in top end guy the other team is getting by going for quantity over quality.  There's always somebody ready to take a small step back.

Yes, you don't need this many prospects. You are still drafting more every year as well. You can easily package some of them up without getting anywhere near any idea of selling off the "future" for the present like Murray tried. 

You can target several types of teams. Teams that have veterans and are cap squeezed. Take a  veteran contract off their hands for an ELC prospect. They can then sign the FA they want so everybody happy. And to be clear I don't mean a dead contract here I mean a player who can still play. An NHL veteran with gas in the tank.

You can also target teams looking to rebuild/retool and shift to more speed and skill (which has been our focus for draft picks). The Boston type teams that have realized they are too old and slow and are looking for a speed/skill shift. Or the teams in a rebuild that might want to go even further down that road by moving out veterans. 

primarily I'd want guys headed to RFA not UFA at the end of their contracts but that's all in the details.

Then if I'm GM I'm also going offer sheet crazy. We have cap space and we can do the St.Louis/Edmonton type moves. Get aggressive. Get creative. Team is a laughing stock now, I'd rather be hated than laughed at. 

The one thing we cannot do is stay the course and wait for development. We do that and I guarantee you Dahlin is gone and then maybe Thompson too. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, for too long the thinking has been down the road, build for the future and development. The thinking of "win now" should have started when we missed by 1 point but since it didn't, it's definitely what has to be the full thought process now. 

Yes, you don't need this many prospects. You are still drafting more every year as well. You can easily package some of them up without getting anywhere near any idea of selling off the "future" for the present like Murray tried. 

You can target several types of teams. Teams that have veterans and are cap squeezed. Take a  veteran contract off their hands for an ELC prospect. They can then sign the FA they want so everybody happy. And to be clear I don't mean a dead contract here I mean a player who can still play. An NHL veteran with gas in the tank.

You can also target teams looking to rebuild/retool and shift to more speed and skill (which has been our focus for draft picks). The Boston type teams that have realized they are too old and slow and are looking for a speed/skill shift. Or the teams in a rebuild that might want to go even further down that road by moving out veterans. 

primarily I'd want guys headed to RFA not UFA at the end of their contracts but that's all in the details.

Then if I'm GM I'm also going offer sheet crazy. We have cap space and we can do the St.Louis/Edmonton type moves. Get aggressive. Get creative. Team is a laughing stock now, I'd rather be hated than laughed at. 

The one thing we cannot do is stay the course and wait for development. We do that and I guarantee you Dahlin is gone and then maybe Thompson too. 

Agree with a lot of this.

The primary disagreement is, personally believe that Adams thought a year ago's team WOULD start winning as it was (it wouldn't contend that year, but it would likely make the dance); his thought / expectation was severely off.  And it was off even moreso this season.  He made more changes this past season, but not adjusting the coaching staff beyond just the HC and an overreliance on 3 key young(ish) players (Luukkonnen, Cozens, and Samuelsson were all part of the leadership of this team and they all spit the bit through large parts of the year) doomed this effort as well.

Hoping he's not the one trying to actually make this year's off-season moves because on a healthy squad we really shouldn't be seeing Benson and Kulich as Thompson's linemates.  In an ideal world they're on a 3rd line feasting on other teams matching up with the top 2 lines.

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Agree with a lot of this.

The primary disagreement is, personally believe that Adams thought a year ago's team WOULD start winning as it was (it wouldn't contend that year, but it would likely make the dance); his thought / expectation was severely off.  And it was off even moreso this season.  He made more changes this past season, but not adjusting the coaching staff beyond just the HC and an overreliance on 3 key young(ish) players (Luukkonnen, Cozens, and Samuelsson were all part of the leadership of this team and they all spit the bit through large parts of the year) doomed this effort as well.

Hoping he's not the one trying to actually make this year's off-season moves because on a healthy squad we really shouldn't be seeing Benson and Kulich as Thompson's linemates.  In an ideal world they're on a 3rd line feasting on other teams matching up with the top 2 lines.

Can I ask a question. How many minutes did Benson actually play with Thompson and Kulich?

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Can I ask a question. How many minutes did Benson actually play with Thompson and Kulich?

I posted it in another thread, but I think it was 113?

If I remember it correctly the were the 3rd most common Sabres combo this year?

[dudacek]

Wait, it was this thread, yes 3rd most common, but actually 159 minutes.

On 4/24/2025 at 6:49 AM, dudacek said:

Here’s something I haven’t seen posted:

Benson/Thompson/Kulich was the 3rd most-common line combo used by the Sabres this year: 159.1 minutes. They scored 10 goals and allowed 8. Their xG% was 57.7 (4th on the team). And their Corsi was 50.9% (9th)

Benson’s next most common were:

• Krebs and Quinn 11th, 91 minutes 2 for, 2 against, xG% 67.7 (1st), Corsi 62.8% (1st)
• Cozens and Quinn 14th, 68.4 minutes, 2 for, 1 against, xG% 45.3 (12th), Corsi 53.4% (6th)
• Kulich and Krebs 16th, 57.7 minutes, 3 for, 2 against, xG% 61.2 (2nd), Corsi 58.1% (2nd)

One thing this doesn’t show you is the matchups. I’d bet good money he was playing against tougher opponents with Thompson than when he was with Krebs.

My biggest takeaway is that whatever line he’s on seems to win, regardless of what metric you use.

(I only used the 20 lines that played at least 50 minutes together, all numbers courtesy of Moneypuck)

 

[mjd1001]

On 4/24/2025 at 9:49 AM, dudacek said:

Here’s something I haven’t seen posted:

Benson/Thompson/Kulich was the 3rd most-common line combo used by the Sabres this year: 159.1 minutes. They scored 10 goals and allowed 8. Their xG% was 57.7 (4th on the team). And their Corsi was 50.9% (9th)

Benson’s next most common were:

• Krebs and Quinn 11th, 91 minutes 2 for, 2 against, xG% 67.7 (1st), Corsi 62.8% (1st)
• Cozens and Quinn 14th, 68.4 minutes, 2 for, 1 against, xG% 45.3 (12th), Corsi 53.4% (6th)
• Kulich and Krebs 16th, 57.7 minutes, 3 for, 2 against, xG% 61.2 (2nd), Corsi 58.1% (2nd)

One thing this doesn’t show you is the matchups. I’d bet good money he was playing against tougher opponents with Thompson than when he was with Krebs.

My biggest takeaway is that whatever line he’s on seems to win, regardless of what metric you use.

(I only used the 20 lines that played at least 50 minutes together, all numbers courtesy of Moneypuck)

When using the advanced analytics, you can look at it other ways also....that he performs BEST with middle-of-the Roster players or below (he 'brings their game up), and with Top of the roster players, those guys defensive production/goals allowed get worse (sometimes considerably) with Benson.

-Tage with Benson on his line was a +1 goal differential (goal allowed every 18.38 minutes). Tage without Benson was a +9. (goal allowed every 20.58 minutes)

-Tuch (in only a bit over 100 minutes with Benson) was a -1 differential (goal allowed every 14.79). Tuch without Benson was a +13. (goal allowed every 27.36 minutes, HUGE difference)

-Peterka was a -4 in only 63 minutes with Benson (goal allowed every 7.35 minutes). Without Benson he was a +15 (goal allowed every 19.42 minutes)

 

On the other hand:

-Krebs with Benson was a +4 (goal allowed every 31.33 minutes, those numbers are great), without Benson was a +1 in more minutes. (goal allowed every 25.89 minutes)

-Jack Quinn was a +3 with Benson (goal allowed every 43.4 minutes, great numbers again), without Benson he was a -10 without him (goal allowed every 16.87 minutes)

When digging into that part of the analytics....Benson defensively works best with middle-to-bottom forwards, not the top line guys.  Why? I don't know, it could be a statistical garbage...but that numbers are the numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8484145&p2=8482097&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

 

 

[LGR4GM]

23 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

When using the advanced analytics, you can look at it other ways also....that he performs BEST with middle-of-the Roster players or below (he 'brings their game up), and with Top of the roster players, those guys defensive production/goals allowed get worse (sometimes considerably) with Benson.

-Tage with Benson on his line was a +1 goal differential (goal allowed every 18.38 minutes). Tage without Benson was a +9. (goal allowed every 20.58 minutes)

-Tuch (in only a bit over 100 minutes with Benson) was a -1 differential (goal allowed every 14.79). Tuch without Benson was a +13. (goal allowed every 27.36 minutes, HUGE difference)

-Peterka was a -4 in only 63 minutes with Benson (goal allowed every 7.35 minutes). Without Benson he was a +15 (goal allowed every 19.42 minutes)

 

On the other hand:

-Krebs with Benson was a +4 (goal allowed every 31.33 minutes, those numbers are great), without Benson was a +1 in more minutes. (goal allowed every 25.89 minutes)

-Jack Quinn was a +3 with Benson (goal allowed every 43.4 minutes, great numbers again), without Benson he was a -10 without him (goal allowed every 16.87 minutes)

When digging into that part of the analytics....Benson defensively works best with middle-to-bottom forwards, not the top line guys.  Why? I don't know, it could be a statistical garbage...but that numbers are the numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8484145&p2=8482097&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

 

 

Because Benson works better with more puck touches. Those get sucked away when he's tasked with funneling pucks to three goal scorers, 2 of which aren't great defensively. I think that's why McLeod works with Benson, McLeod doesn't need a bunch of handles. 

[Archie Lee]

Here are some wingers, who are currently playing "top-six" roles for Eastern Conference playoff teams:

Carolina: Jackson Blake, age 20. He had 34 points in 80 games this season.

Florida:  Mackie Samoskevich, age 21. He had 31 points in 72 games this season.

Tampa: Gage Goncalves.  20 points in 60 games.

Washington:  Anthony Beauvillier. 25 points in 81 games. 

Toronto: Pointus Holmberg:  19 points in 68 games.

NJ: Erik Haula. 21 points in 69 games.

I think Benson is more than capable of playing a top 6 role on a playoff team.  Thinking you can make the playoffs with Benson and Kulich both in your top 6, and on the same line no less, is likely very flawed and is repeating this year's mistakes.

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

When using the advanced analytics, you can look at it other ways also....that he performs BEST with middle-of-the Roster players or below (he 'brings their game up), and with Top of the roster players, those guys defensive production/goals allowed get worse (sometimes considerably) with Benson.

-Tage with Benson on his line was a +1 goal differential (goal allowed every 18.38 minutes). Tage without Benson was a +9. (goal allowed every 20.58 minutes)

-Tuch (in only a bit over 100 minutes with Benson) was a -1 differential (goal allowed every 14.79). Tuch without Benson was a +13. (goal allowed every 27.36 minutes, HUGE difference)

-Peterka was a -4 in only 63 minutes with Benson (goal allowed every 7.35 minutes). Without Benson he was a +15 (goal allowed every 19.42 minutes)

 

On the other hand:

-Krebs with Benson was a +4 (goal allowed every 31.33 minutes, those numbers are great), without Benson was a +1 in more minutes. (goal allowed every 25.89 minutes)

-Jack Quinn was a +3 with Benson (goal allowed every 43.4 minutes, great numbers again), without Benson he was a -10 without him (goal allowed every 16.87 minutes)

When digging into that part of the analytics....Benson defensively works best with middle-to-bottom forwards, not the top line guys.  Why? I don't know, it could be a statistical garbage...but that numbers are the numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8484145&p2=8482097&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

 

 

Don't know for sure why that is.  Would guess it's due in large part to lesser competition.

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Don't know for sure why that is.  Would guess it's due in large part to lesser competition.

I think it has more to do with sample size.

I mean in a lot of these case you are talking about 3 goals or 2 over a span of 70 minutes.

I was shocked to see how little time lines actually spend together.

[JP51]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think it has more to do with sample size.

I mean in a lot of these case you are talking about 3 goals or 2 over a span of 70 minutes.

I was shocked to see how little time lines actually spend together.

Agree here... I wonder if building consistency with linemates doesn't help him define a focus... question gonna be who are the best ones... 

[LGR4GM]

58 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

When using the advanced analytics, you can look at it other ways also....that he performs BEST with middle-of-the Roster players or below (he 'brings their game up), and with Top of the roster players, those guys defensive production/goals allowed get worse (sometimes considerably) with Benson.

-Tage with Benson on his line was a +1 goal differential (goal allowed every 18.38 minutes). Tage without Benson was a +9. (goal allowed every 20.58 minutes)

-Tuch (in only a bit over 100 minutes with Benson) was a -1 differential (goal allowed every 14.79). Tuch without Benson was a +13. (goal allowed every 27.36 minutes, HUGE difference)

-Peterka was a -4 in only 63 minutes with Benson (goal allowed every 7.35 minutes). Without Benson he was a +15 (goal allowed every 19.42 minutes)

 

On the other hand:

-Krebs with Benson was a +4 (goal allowed every 31.33 minutes, those numbers are great), without Benson was a +1 in more minutes. (goal allowed every 25.89 minutes)

-Jack Quinn was a +3 with Benson (goal allowed every 43.4 minutes, great numbers again), without Benson he was a -10 without him (goal allowed every 16.87 minutes)

When digging into that part of the analytics....Benson defensively works best with middle-to-bottom forwards, not the top line guys.  Why? I don't know, it could be a statistical garbage...but that numbers are the numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats

58 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

When using the advanced analytics, you can look at it other ways also....that he performs BEST with middle-of-the Roster players or below (he 'brings their game up), and with Top of the roster players, those guys defensive production/goals allowed get worse (sometimes considerably) with Benson.

-Tage with Benson on his line was a +1 goal differential (goal allowed every 18.38 minutes). Tage without Benson was a +9. (goal allowed every 20.58 minutes)

-Tuch (in only a bit over 100 minutes with Benson) was a -1 differential (goal allowed every 14.79). Tuch without Benson was a +13. (goal allowed every 27.36 minutes, HUGE difference)

-Peterka was a -4 in only 63 minutes with Benson (goal allowed every 7.35 minutes). Without Benson he was a +15 (goal allowed every 19.42 minutes)

 

On the other hand:

-Krebs with Benson was a +4 (goal allowed every 31.33 minutes, those numbers are great), without Benson was a +1 in more minutes. (goal allowed every 25.89 minutes)

-Jack Quinn was a +3 with Benson (goal allowed every 43.4 minutes, great numbers again), without Benson he was a -10 without him (goal allowed every 16.87 minutes)

When digging into that part of the analytics....Benson defensively works best with middle-to-bottom forwards, not the top line guys.  Why? I don't know, it could be a statistical garbage...but that numbers are the numbers.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8484145&p2=8482097&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

 

 

.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8484145&p2=8482097&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

 

 

Tage with Benson: 55.39xgf%, 57.95hdcf%

Tage without: 51.05%x, 51.84%gd

 

Tuch with Benson: 50.33xgf%, 43.9%hdcf

Tuch without: 48.13%x, 49%hd

 

Peterka with Benson: 49.95xgf%, 50hdcf%

Peterka without: 45.93%x, 42.82%hd

[LGR4GM]

Benson with McLeod: 56.04%xgf. 54%hdcf

So looking this over, I think you want a line that's Peterka with Tuch. Another that's Benson with McLeod and another centered on Thompson. Issue is Tuch needs a center. 

Zucker - Kulich - Thompson 

Peterka - Norris - Tuch

Benson - McLeod - Quinn? Greenway?

Some samples are smallish but that's about the best looking lineup you can build. 

[Archie Lee]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Benson with McLeod: 56.04%xgf. 54%hdcf

So looking this over, I think you want a line that's Peterka with Tuch. Another that's Benson with McLeod and another centered on Thompson. Issue is Tuch needs a center. 

Zucker - Kulich - Thompson 

Peterka - Norris - Tuch

Benson - McLeod - Quinn? Greenway?

Some samples are smallish but that's about the best looking lineup you can build. 

I like those lines.  And game to game I'm not sure it's worth distinguishing which is line 1, 2, or 3.  Thompson's offensive prowess makes his line the default line 1, but I'm not sure it really matters.

The Quinn/Greenway spot is the most primed for a veteran upgrade. Cap-wise, it's not the easiest thing to accomplish without Greenway going the other way.  We can move on from Samuelsson and/or Clifton and/or Byram, but we would presumably be looking to bring in veteran upgrades on defense to replace any defenders who are leaving.  With Peterka and McLeod in line for big raises, I don't think we can add a $4+ million dollar forward without a forward on a similar salary going out.

[dudacek]

42 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Benson with McLeod: 56.04%xgf. 54%hdcf

So looking this over, I think you want a line that's Peterka with Tuch. Another that's Benson with McLeod and another centered on Thompson. Issue is Tuch needs a center. 

Zucker - Kulich - Thompson 

Peterka - Norris - Tuch

Benson - McLeod - Quinn? Greenway?

Some samples are smallish but that's about the best looking lineup you can build. 

It was interesting you talked about touches and who needs them.

Norris came with the scouting report of being able to make a difference with just quick touches.

[Thorny]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

It was interesting you talked about touches and who needs them.

Norris came with the scouting report of being able to make a difference with just quick touches.

Strikingly fitting considering his availability track record