Alex Tuch

[JohnC]

37 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

You're not far off but I can't exactly say we lost both trades.

I would certainly say we haven't won either trade but I can't go to the level of a loss.

What has been the team’s record since the trades? The other teams made deals that helped each of the teams to win the Cup. What happened to the Sabre’s post trades? The Sabres continued to wallow in the muck of mediocrity. There is a simple and understandable scorecard in sports: your re record. It is what it is.

[DarthEbriate]

Per the OP: Tuch is a 1W or 2W on just about every roster in the league (FLA being the notable exception with Reinhart/Tkachuk). He will get Selke votes this year. He's streaky, but much more consistent than a Stafford-type with "2 great weeks each season".

Now...  are you ready to make him the another $7-$8M forward on the team for 7 years? Because if he gets to UFA, he could get significant interest from contenders and an escalated cap. $8M would be possible, depending on if the suitor team has a 1W or not.

---- 

Per win/lost trades. Eichel is a loss because the goals of VGK was met short- and long-term; likewise FLA with Reinhart. The ROR trade... the long-term and "best" player could quite easily still be won by the Sabres when Thompson's career ends. The short-term (next season Cup/Smythe) was clearly a STL victory.

[shrader]

7 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think time and the teams also matter for these trades. We are 4 years removed now from them and both teams won cups. Both players have really elevated their game into their primes and had lots of individual success. Tage has been good. Tuch has been good. The rest we hope for goodness. But those 4 years of betterness IMPO matter. 

Most* trades are made between a one team trading for today and the other trading for tomorrow. You’re pretty much always going to have that first side getting those better years up front. 4 is probably excessive, I have a hard time giving much of any weight towards that initial bump. Of course they’re better up front, that’s the whole point of the trade. 
 

For the tomorrows team, no single trade is going to get them into the playoffs in the short term, particularly when the organization as a whole is pure garbage (I’m trying to talk generally here about trades, but you know exactly who I’m talking about with that description). Sometimes that team needs about 85 trades before they wind up back on the right track. 
 

*”Most” might be a bit strong, but there’s definitely a lot of those trades. 

[pastajoe]

1 hour ago, Jorcus said:

The thing about that statement is in the timing. In the near term it's one thing in the long term it's another. Like getting Tage for Ryan O'Reilly. Who would you rather have then? Who would you rather have now? Right now I would still rather have Eichel but he is off the ice again. Maybe it's getting closer in value. Next year who knows.

I’d rather have had O’Reilly, and a GM and coach who surrounded him with players who knew how to win a Stanley Cup, and his Conn Smythe trophy, as was the case in St Louis. For all his accomplishments Tage hasn’t gotten the Sabres any closer to the playoffs.

[Palm Trees And Taxes]

4 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

And leads the league in SHG. Him and McLeod look to be a great fit together.

What does a contract extension look like?

 

Thinking 4X8M AAV. What does everyone else think?

[Drag0nDan]

3 hours ago, Cascade Youth said:

It’s interesting - the players they netted from the Eichel and O’Reilly trades ended up being really good, and if Levi pans out, the same can be said for the Reinhardt trade.  Not saying those were the right trades at the right times but still.

Kulich aint even 21 yet either so there's potential there as well.  

[Huckleberry]

1 hour ago, Palm Trees And Taxes said:

 

Thinking 4X8M AAV. What does everyone else think?

6x7 AAV , not taking more than Thompson.

[Drag0nDan]

Just now, Huckleberry said:

6x7 AAV , not taking more than Thompson.

Thompson being underpaid shouldn't have anything to do with Tuch.  Thompson was also an RFA when he signed, and wasn't a projected UFA until after the 24-25 season.  Buying out his RFA years gets him money up front, guaranteed money, and buffalo gets a discount on the UFA years.  

Escalating cap situation but some comparables (Not all were UFA's when signed and not all were signed in the last year or two, some are centers etc.)

Guentzel - 9M AAV

Wilson - 6.5M AAV

Scheifele - 8.5M AAV

Reinhart - 8.625M AAV

Hertl - 8.1375M AAV

Kadri - 7M AAV

Forsberg - 8.5M AAV

Toffoli - 6M AAV

Stamkos - 8M AAV

Horvat - 8.5M AAV

I'd expect he pushes for 8 plus with term.  

[Palm Trees And Taxes]

37 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

6x7 AAV , not taking more than Thompson.

Fair point but Im ok with paying more AAV for less years.

 

[HumanSlinky39]

He's probably my favorite current Sabre and a throwback to those really good mid-late 2000's Sabres teams.

[LGR4GM]

58 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

6x7 AAV , not taking more than Thompson.

Thompson signed his contract 3 years ago coming off a season where he got 8.55% of the cap. They will have almost identical scoring numbers, so 8.15million is roughly the equivalent to the 8.55% cap hit. 

Thompson 2022: 38g, 30a, 78games

Tuch 2025: 34g, 29a, 77games

[thewookie1]

I'd imagine he signs for something akin to 5x7.5 or 8mil

[Thorner]

 

Look at the freaking map.

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres have repeatedly shown under Kevyn Adams they do not understand sh% or how regression and outlier stretches or seasons impact it. Cozens contract, ditching Reinhart, this years current hot streak. The team does not and has not produced enough chances to be sustainable over a full season, it is like when Vancouver was hot for about 3 months and then washed out never to return to those heights again. Think that was either last year or the 1 before but it is the same thing. We need more offensive driving guys and we need more chances, we can't always rely on the secondary scorers shooting at career levels. Thankfully JJP looks like he is at his average but I we have to drive more chances. 

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Was talking about this last night. But if you look at who we got with those picks then the trades look even better. 

Eichel - Tuch, Krebs, Östlund

Samson - Levi, Kulich

What the heck would this place look like if we weren’t the worst nhl franchise of the last 15 years holy crap on a cracker!

I honestly respect it 

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think time and the teams also matter for these trades. We are 4 years removed now from them and both teams won cups. Both players have really elevated their game into their primes and had lots of individual success. Tage has been good. Tuch has been good. The rest we hope for goodness. But those 4 years of betterness IMPO matter. 

Nope time isn’t a valuable variable 

Edited Wednesday at 07:03 PM by Thorner

[Thorner]

7 hours ago, Palm Trees And Taxes said:

 

Thinking 4X8M AAV. What does everyone else think?

It’ll be a good test of how much Tuch actually “wants to be here”, if anyone does it’s him, right? 

im never the team discount guy but a “fair” deal to Tuch probably puts us in a bad position sooner or later: this is Tuch’s *1* big chance at a huge deal and he’s entering into his age 30 years 

peak “paying for past performance” deal

tread ridiculously carefully 

We’ve used his best years in the immediate aftermath of torpedoing the team for 5 years 

6 hours ago, Drag0nDan said:

Thompson being underpaid shouldn't have anything to do with Tuch.  Thompson was also an RFA when he signed, and wasn't a projected UFA until after the 24-25 season.  Buying out his RFA years gets him money up front, guaranteed money, and buffalo gets a discount on the UFA years.  

Escalating cap situation but some comparables (Not all were UFA's when signed and not all were signed in the last year or two, some are centers etc.)

Guentzel - 9M AAV

Wilson - 6.5M AAV

Scheifele - 8.5M AAV

Reinhart - 8.625M AAV

Hertl - 8.1375M AAV

Kadri - 7M AAV

Forsberg - 8.5M AAV

Toffoli - 6M AAV

Stamkos - 8M AAV

Horvat - 8.5M AAV

I'd expect he pushes for 8 plus with term.  

Yup 

Edited Wednesday at 11:30 PM by Thorner

[Night Train]

Pay him and stay on topic. He's a keeper going forward. 

[shrader]

33 minutes ago, Thorner said:

What the heck would this place look like if we weren’t the worst nhl franchise of the last 15 years holy crap on a cracker!

I honestly respect it 

I wonder how many people on here are left from when the team was good. I can’t keep up with all the name changes over the years. 

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

I wonder how many people on here are left from when the team was good. I can’t keep up with all the name changes over the years. 

A fair few I think 

Anyone STILL posting here after the worst dearth a pro hockey team has seen is made from some of the strongest stuff fans can be made from 

It’s a mix of stalwarts and yougins untainted by the tides of time I’d imagine 

[Doohickie]

45 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Pay him and stay on topic. He's a keeper going forward. 

Going forward how far?  Three years?  Sure.

Six years?  I would hope so, but..... he's probably heading into steady decline, but maybe not.  Who knows which players will age well and which won't?

[mjd1001]

Just now, Doohickie said:

Going forward how far?  Three years?  Sure.

Six years?  I would hope so, but..... he's probably heading into steady decline, but maybe not.  Who knows which players will age well and which won't?

That is the tough thing about Tuch.  He is very valuable. In my opinion, the 3rd best player on this team. But how do you deal with his next contract?

-3rd best player. Fan favorite. From the area. He has an A.

-His next contract will START when he is 29, going on 30.  Players, on average (not all the time but on average), peak right about the age he is now. He my very well be starting his 'production decline' as he starts a new deal.

How much do you pay him, for how long?

Give him a 3-4 year offer and he may balk at that, and have a lot of fans that say the offer is offensive.  Give him 6-7 and its ALMOST a certainty he will be overpaid for the majority of the deal.  I have no idea how this plays out.

[DarthEbriate]

Right now, the 2026 UFA list of forwards has big names on it (McDavid, Eichel, Kaprizov). But there's a high likelihood none of them reach UFA -- they'll extend or manage a sign-and-trade.

Of the next tier: Kyle Connor, Panarin, Kempe, Necas, Tuch...   One more all-around good season, maybe "lead" the Sabres to a playoff berth...  Tuch would be one of the top UFAs out there because a few of those guys get extended, too. Guentzel just signed for $9M. The projected cap in 2026 is $104M.

Live view of Tuch's agent...

Edited Wednesday at 08:28 PM by DarthEbriate

[Brawndo]

8 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Why is he never thought of for the Selke?  

As good as Tuch is at blocking shots and takeaways the rest of his defensive side of the game is not up with the elite defensive forwards.

Tuch does not even have the best forward defensive metrics on the Sabres. 

[Carmel Corn]

I'd be good with 5 x $8m....unless he simply doesn't want to be here after next season.