How would you retool this team this summer?

[dudacek]

It’s always a good idea to look at the numbers, what changed and why:

• Points: 84 last year (22nd overall) dropped to 79 (26th)
• Goals for: 244 (23rd) improved to 265 (10th)
• Goals against: 243 (11th) dropped to 287 (30th)
• Power play: 16.6% (29th) improved to 18.8% (24th)
• Penalty killing; 79.8% (13th) dropped to 76.4% (23rd)
• Shots for: 30.9 (15th) dropped to 27.8 (20th)
• Shots against: 29.3 (9th) dropped* to 28.9 (21st)
• Shooting %: 8.85% (14th) improved to 10.6 (2nd)
• Save %: 91.4% (14th) dropped to 89.9% (29th)
• xG%: 47.4% (24th) stayed the same* at 48.1 (24th)
• Shot differential: +1.6 (14th) dropped to -1.1 (21st)
• SAT%: 50.7% (16th) improved* to 49.8 (15th)
• Faceoffs: 45% (32) improved to 47.8 (26th)
• Hits: 1,786 (21st) improved* to 1,736 (16th)
• Blocked shots: 1,201 (27th) improved* to 1,190 (24th)
• Net penalties: -14 (24th) improved* to -16 (22nd)

This year, the were good at exactly one thing: shooting to score.

They improved in scoring. Their PK declined and their save % dropped significantly.

But my overriding takeaway is that their rankings were mediocre to poor in virtually every category and despite the new coach, very little changed.

 

Edited Sunday at 03:17 PM by dudacek

[Stoner]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s always a good idea to look at the numbers, what changed and why:

• Points: 84 last year (22nd overall) dropped to 79 (26th)
• Goals for: 244 (23rd) improved to 265 (10th)
• Goals against: 243 (11th) dropped to 287 (30th)
• Power play: 16.6% (29th) improved to 18.8% (24th)
• Penalty killing; 79.8% (13th) dropped to 76.4% (23rd)
• Shots for: 30.9 (15th) dropped to 27.8 (20th)
• Shots against: 29.3 (9th) dropped* to 28.9 (21st)
• Shooting %: 8.85% (14th) improved to 10.6 (2nd)
• Save %: 91.4% (14th) dropped to 89.9% (29th)
• xG%: 47.4% (24th) stayed the same* at 48.1 (24th)
• Shot differential: +1.6 (14th) dropped to -1.1 (21st)
• SAT%: 50.7% (16th) improved* to 49.8 (15th)
• Faceoffs: 45% (32) improved to 47.8 (26th)
• Hits: 1,786 (21st) improved* to 1,736 (16th)
• Blocked shots: 1,201 (27th) improved* to 1,190 (24th)
• Net penalties: -14 (24th) improved* to -16 (22nd)

This year, the were good at exactly one thing: shooting to score.

They improved in scoring. Their PK declined and their save % dropped significantly.

But my overriding takeaway is that their rankings were mediocre to poor in virtually every category and despite the new coach, very little changed.

 

Looks like good/bad puck luck to me. Would Adams (argh) be wrong to not improve the forward ranks and make some desperate move in goal?

Just curious... what do the asterisks indicate?

And God love ya for putting in the work.

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, Stoner said:

Looks like good/bad puck luck to me. Would Adams (argh) be wrong to not improve the forward ranks and make some desperate move in goal?

Just curious... what do the asterisks indicate?

And God love ya for putting in the work.

The *'s mean the stat improved/decreased in actual count but decreased/improved in overall rank.  (e.g., fewer total shots blocked but moved from 27th in the league up to 24th in the league.)

[Stoner]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

The *'s mean the stat improved/decreased in actual count but decreased/improved in overall rank.  (e.g., fewer total shots blocked but moved from 27th in the league up to 24th in the league.)

You still got it! Glad to see you're back.

[Archie Lee]

39 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It’s always a good idea to look at the numbers, what changed and why:

• Points: 84 last year (22nd overall) dropped to 79 (26th)
• Goals for: 244 (23rd) improved to 265 (10th)
• Goals against: 243 (11th) dropped to 287 (30th)
• Power play: 16.6% (29th) improved to 18.8% (24th)
• Penalty killing; 79.8% (13th) dropped to 76.4% (23rd)
• Shots for: 30.9 (15th) dropped to 27.8 (20th)
• Shots against: 29.3 (9th) dropped* to 28.9 (21st)
• Shooting %: 8.85% (14th) improved to 10.6 (2nd)
• Save %: 91.4% (14th) dropped to 89.9% (29th)
• xG%: 47.4% (24th) stayed the same* at 48.1 (24th)
• Shot differential: +1.6 (14th) dropped to -1.1 (21st)
• SAT%: 50.7% (16th) improved* to 49.8 (15th)
• Faceoffs: 45% (32) improved to 47.8 (26th)
• Hits: 1,786 (21st) improved* to 1,736 (16th)
• Blocked shots: 1,201 (27th) improved* to 1,190 (24th)
• Net penalties: -14 (24th) improved* to -16 (22nd)

This year, the were good at exactly one thing: shooting to score.

They improved in scoring. Their PK declined and their save % dropped significantly.

But my overriding takeaway is that their rankings were mediocre to poor in virtually every category and despite the new coach, very little changed.

 

Not making changes at GM and HC this off-season is just delaying the inevitable. 

Adams is now in quite dubious company when it comes to post-expansion GM's who went 5 straight seasons out of the playoffs, from the start of their tenure with a team.  If he goes on to have a long successful career as the Sabres's GM, he will be the first GM in league history to have such a poor start with a team, only to then have long-term success with the same team. 

Ruff is the oldest coach in the league. He has had two winning seasons (better than DeLuca .500) in his last 11 as a head coach.  He made the playoffs 3x in that stretch. You have to go back to 2011 to find a season where Ruff coached a team to the playoffs in consecutive years.  His teams are consistently near the bottom of the league in goals against. He once missed the playoffs in Dallas with the league's 2nd highest scoring team. 

Rolling these two men back in their respective roles and expecting success is the opposite of what any major league franchise that has any degree of self-respect, let alone expectation of winning, would do. Could Adams and Ruff find a mix of players that gets into the playoffs in 2026?  Sure, it's not an impossible to imagine scenario. But there is zero reason to think these men are going to get it done.  It's not personal.  Adams seems like a good man and I think he has done as well as a person with his limited experience could probably be expected to do.  Ruff is a coaching legend and there is no question there was a time in his career when he was among the league's best. But they are not the future of the franchise. 

At the very least, replacing Adams with a new GM (even an internal promotion, like Karmanos), positions the team to be flexible when it comes to a coaching change. What if DeBoer or Bednar or Knoblach don't survive first round playoff losses? What if Pittsburgh moves on from Sullivan.  Should we be considering Laviolette (who has made the playoffs in 8 of his last 11 seasons). What about Todd Nelson in Hershey, who just wins, and wins, and wins, and seems to coach a repeatable structured system. What about the league's best young assistants who will be looking to move into head coaching roles?  With Adams as a lame-duck GM, none of these are even options.

If you have had the same GM for 5 years and you are headed into the final year of their contract and you are not prepared to give them an extension, then it is time to move on.  I am hoping that Pegula is capable of recognizing the obvious.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Stoner said:

Looks like good/bad puck luck to me. 

This.

I’ve always thought the chaos of hockey translates +/- 10 points over a season.

They sacrificed some offence for defence that may or may not have been due to bounces, sniping or crappy goaltending, but they were pretty much the same team they were the previous year.

Edited Sunday at 04:44 PM by dudacek

[Stoner]

How about de-tooling. They clearly have a bunch of guys who don't have the winning stuff. Get some winning personalities in here. Zucker was a good move in that direction.

And yeah that goes all the way to the top of the lineup. What good is elite talent if you can't win?

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, Stoner said:

How about de-tooling. They clearly have a bunch of guys who don't have the winning stuff. Get some winning personalities in here. Zucker was a good move in that direction.

And yeah that goes all the way to the top of the lineup. What good is elite talent if you can't win?

It was a dumb idea to run with all young talent and it's still a dumb idea. Kids are not forced to earn spots, they are just given spots. The leadership is supposed to come from guys who have never been around NHL winners. The system is ever changing and non functional. I have never understood what it is we are actually trying to do. The team has no identity other than being perceived as "soft". It's just stupid. 

 

[Night Train]

The stupid 7 year contracts handed out like Halloween candy.  Bridge deals be damned. 

Cozens, Muel after 50 games..Power after 1 year. .beyond stupid.  Sabres 3rd highest in paying D-men and Byram needs a deal ?  Does it ever end ?  

Non physical tin men everywhere. 

I guess they can work on upgrading the arena even during games, with all the empty seats.  

Change or vanish. 

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Not making changes at GM and HC this off-season is just delaying the inevitable. 

Adams is now in quite dubious company when it comes to post-expansion GM's who went 5 straight seasons out of the playoffs, from the start of their tenure with a team.  If he goes on to have a long successful career as the Sabres's GM, he will be the first GM in league history to have such a poor start with a team, only to then have long-term success with the same team. 

Ruff is the oldest coach in the league. He has had two winning seasons (better than DeLuca .500) in his last 11 as a head coach.  He made the playoffs 3x in that stretch. You have to go back to 2011 to find a season where Ruff coached a team to the playoffs in consecutive years.  His teams are consistently near the bottom of the league in goals against. He once missed the playoffs in Dallas with the league's 2nd highest scoring team. 

Rolling these two men back in their respective roles and expecting success is the opposite of what any major league franchise that has any degree of self-respect, let alone expectation of winning, would do. Could Adams and Ruff find a mix of players that gets into the playoffs in 2026?  Sure, it's not an impossible to imagine scenario. But there is zero reason to think these men are going to get it done.  It's not personal.  Adams seems like a good man and I think he has done as well as a person with his limited experience could probably be expected to do.  Ruff is a coaching legend and there is no question there was a time in his career when he was among the league's best. But they are not the future of the franchise. 

At the very least, replacing Adams with a new GM (even an internal promotion, like Karmanos), positions the team to be flexible when it comes to a coaching change. What if DeBoer or Bednar or Knoblach don't survive first round playoff losses? What if Pittsburgh moves on from Sullivan.  Should we be considering Laviolette (who has made the playoffs in 8 of his last 11 seasons). What about Todd Nelson in Hershey, who just wins, and wins, and wins, and seems to coach a repeatable structured system. What about the league's best young assistants who will be looking to move into head coaching roles?  With Adams as a lame-duck GM, none of these are even options.

If you have had the same GM for 5 years and you are headed into the final year of their contract and you are not prepared to give them an extension, then it is time to move on.  I am hoping that Pegula is capable of recognizing the obvious.

[Pimlach]

Thinking of Pegula’s past practice, he could move on from Adams and keep Lindy, and ask Lindy to help him find a POHO/GM. 

Unconventional, and similar to his hiring McD first, and then Beane.  

I think they both should be replaced but just pondering what Terry might do next.  He needs someone to help him.  

[spndnchz]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Thinking of Pegula’s past practice, he could move on from Adams and keep Lindy, and ask Lindy to help him find a POHO/GM. 

Unconventional, and similar to his hiring McD first, and then Beane.  

I think they both should be replaced but just pondering what Terry might do next.  He needs someone to help him.  

I think you’re on to something here

[Believer]

18 hours ago, dudacek said:

But my overriding takeaway is that their rankings were mediocre to poor in virtually every category and despite the new coach, very little changed.

Thanks, @dudacek for the YOY comparisons. Tells the sorry story.

Ruff said he spent the season getting to know his team. Perhaps he depended too heavily on the Assistant Coaches he inherited to do the teaching. Same old, same old.

As you proved, “despite the new coach, very little changed.”

Pegula needs to replace both Adams and Ruff, imo.

Edited yesterday at 10:04 AM by Believer

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Thinking of Pegula’s past practice, he could move on from Adams and keep Lindy, and ask Lindy to help him find a POHO/GM. 

Unconventional, and similar to his hiring McD first, and then Beane.  

I think they both should be replaced but just pondering what Terry might do next.  He needs someone to help him.  

You hit on the source of the problem that has plagued this franchise under his ownership: His unwillingness to seek out the right people to help him. This billionaire fellow is stubborn about how he operates. It's a closed system with him as the decider. It's not a surprise that this franchise continues to go in the same failed circle without an ability to break out of it to take a better course. 

Until a more competent group of people is brought in to run the hockey operation, the mediocre results will not change. I'm not saying anything that is very illuminating because it is so basic that even a dullard can understand. I simply don't understand why the owner can't realize that the people he selected have failed him and that they are not the solution to the problems they have created. This is basic stuff!

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, Believer said:

Thanks, @dudacek for the YOY comparisons. Tells the sorry story.

Ruff said he spent the season getting to know his team. Perhaps he depended too heavily on the Assistant Coaches he inherited to do the teaching. Same old, same old.

As you proved, “despite the new coach, very little changed.”

Pegula needs to replace both Adams and Ruff, imo.

So you want Seth Appert as our HC?  Not me.  The problem is it feels like Pegula running the Sabres the way Ralph ran the Bills. Not suring what to do but let go of guys every few years and just hope something lands. The problem is we haven't found a bonafide #1 goalie since trading Miller. Also as mentioned giving bad contracts to bad players too early. I still shake my head at giving Samuelsson that contract I mean what justified it?  

[Believer]

7 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

So you want Seth Appert as our HC?  Not me

Not me either.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Until this team gets better D and goalies, it doesn’t matter who the coach is. 

 

Edited yesterday at 02:19 PM by GASabresIUFAN

[Stoner]

Is UPL young for a goalie? He just turned 26. Asking for a friend.

P.S. He has played in 155 games.

[Mr Peabody]

I’d take Zucker out on the yacht for a few days and see if I could get inside info on the team and coaching staff.  Some people are too nice to throw others under the bus so I’d stock up on some amarone to loosen up the conversation. In vino veritas.

[Mr Peabody]

44 minutes ago, Stoner said:

Is UPL young for a goalie? He just turned 26. Asking for a friend.

P.S. He has played in 155 games.

Not defending him but those 155 games were all in front of one of the worst team defenses I’ve seen.  KA wants a pack mentality??  Look at our d men and who fits the description?   Dahlin and Clifton?  That’s it.  I don’t think you can change the personality of the others into an aggressive wolf pack.   We need some big, nasty boys on D AND a 1a / 1B in goal.   To paraphrase Zucker, we can’t rely on “hope” UPL is the guy. 

[Porous Five Hole]

49 minutes ago, Mr Peabody said:

I’d take Zucker out on the yacht for a few days and see if I could get inside info on the team and coaching staff.  Some people are too nice to throw others under the bus so I’d stock up on some amarone to loosen up the conversation. In vino veritas.

You want to trap Zucker on a boat with you and get him drunk? Ooooookie dokie. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Mr Peabody said:

I’d take Zucker out on the yacht for a few days and see if I could get inside info on the team and coaching staff.  Some people are too nice to throw others under the bus so I’d stock up on some amarone to loosen up the conversation. In vino veritas.

If the owner hasn’t figured out what the main problem is after nearly a generation of ownership, then he is irretrievably hockey obtuse. If he wants to quickly figure out what the source of the problem is for his flailing franchise, he should go to the nearest mirror and see who it is. 

[French Collection]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

You want to trap Zucker on a boat with you and get him drunk? Ooooookie dokie. 

Might be a few more cuss words coming out than GMTM let loose.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Some quick T&O (Thoughts and Observations)

- We need a power forward that will go to the net every time we are in the zone!!! How many games have you watched and noticed they do not go to the net at all!!! It is like it was coached out of them! LOL

- We need a physical stay at home RHD that can clear the crease!! I love the new guy (JBD). Not flashy, he is physical when needed and plays a simple game! A decent 4-6 Dman! Get us a top 4 RHD!!!

- Need a real top line! Benson, Kulich and Thompson are not it.... and should never ever be considered one. 

- GM needs to go. We need a real GM with a real plan and vision. Just making the playoffs should never be the mission, but hell you need to at least get there!! This team needs to be in the playoffs next year, plain and simple! Another OUTSIDE person for GM needs to happen! 

- Special teams suck!!! Huge changes there!! PK needs to be aggressive all the time! PP needs everything! LOL Horrible!! 

- Goalie Carousel needs to go away! It is going to happen next season. Levi, 6K, and Reimer (Believe he wants to stay again!) Either leave Levi one more year and get a real #1 and get rid of 6K or let Levi play if he is ready and leave UPL as a back up. Personally both UPL and Levi have the talent to be in the NHL. I truly believe that. But it was not enough this year. Needs to be seriously fixed!! 

 

OK, a lot but my thoughts.... 

[Broken Ankles]

12 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

You want to trap Zucker on a boat with you and get him drunk? Ooooookie dokie. 

I think that’s a plot line on White Lotus.