Peyton Krebs going forward

[mjd1001]

There has been a lot of talk about Krebs within some threads, but no recent threads about him or discussion of where he is with this team next year.

-Is he still that "13th forward" on the team? If they actually sign some vets in the offseason is he the 'odd man in/odd man out'?

-Is he the 4th line center?

-Is he a middle 6 player?

Since the Cozens trade (removing a Center from the team) and Norris not really playing (Norris not being available to fill the Center role that was vacated by Cozens), Krebs has stepped up his minutes and his play/production.  Norris played 3 games after the trade and has not played since.  Since Cozens has been gone and Norris has stopped playing, the team has played 12 games where Krebs has had the opportunity to 'step up' into a higher role.

In those 12 games, Krebs: 12 games, 4 goals, 5 assists, +7, 14:10 minutes per game (82 game pace 27 goals, 34 assists, +48...yeah, I know small sample size)

BEFORE those 12 games, Krebs: 63 gp, 5 goals, 12 assists, -7. 13:37 minutes per game (82 game pace 7 goals, 16 assists, -9)

Lets take it one step further.  For most of the year, even in the first few games after the trade deadline, Krebs was playing with the 'lesser' players on this roster, 4th line guys, Quinn, Brett Murray, Lafferty, etc).  7 games ago, Tuch was moved to Krebs line and they have been linemates for the last 7 games. (Zucker has been on the other wing most of the time, with Rosen and Kozak spending some time with them too)

In those 7 games with Tuch on his wing (give him a legit good player): 3 goals, 5 asissts 7 games, +8

Krebs hasn't dragged down Tuch either:  7 games with Krebs as his center: 6 goals, 5 assists, +6.

Now, their 'analytics' together aren't stellar (Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, expected goals, high danger chances, etc) are all either slightly above or slightly below average), but the results in terms of production has been there.

Ok, a lot of info above, it may mean something, or maybe its too small of a sample size.  The thing I'm thinking of...has Krebs 'turned a corner' into a legit middle 6 center when given the opportunity, minutes, and decent linemates? Or is it a mirage, only looking good based on a small sample size?

 

 

Edited April 7 by mjd1001

[dudacek]

Peyton Krebs also is 3/5/8/+8 during this 7-of-8 heater.

Easily the most productive stretch of his career and also the definition of a small sample blip.

 

[EM88]

Let us see if it continues with Krebs the rest of the year.  Another handful of games will make the very small sample size slightly larger and somewhat more meaningful to evaluate.

It appears Lindy finally got frustrated enough with Quinn so he took him off of McLeods line and put him with Krebs toward the end of the game.

If Krebs is stuck with Quinn the rest of the season, his numbers may not look so good going forward.

Edited April 7 by EM88

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, EM88 said:

Let us see if it continues with Krebs the rest of the year.  Another handful of games will make the very small sample size slightly larger and somewhat more meaningful to evaluate.

It appears Lindy finally got frustrated enough with Quinn so he took him off of McLeods line and put him with Krebs toward the end of the game.

If Krebs is stuck with Quinn the rest of the season, his numbers may not look so good going forward.

The Quinn factor may be an issue.....Krebs has 'momentum', if nothing else, Quinn is this years "momentum killer."  He drags down the analytics of anyone he is stuck with...

McLeod was one of the better players in tems of both possession and production per minute on this team.  For the greater part of the last 2 weeks, he ended up with Quinn on his wing and his analytics plummeted, they went from good without Quinn to really really bad with Quinn. 

Then last night, sometime in the first period, Ruff remoed Quinn from McLeod's line and guess what? McLeods analytics and possesson numbers skyrocketed immediately without Quinn on his line.

A note on Quinn....his analytics and possession numbers haven't always been bad.  2 years ago they were pretty decent.  Earlier this year they were OK (not great but at least not terrible), but as this year has gone on, some of them have gotten worse and worse.

Edited April 7 by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

I still don't know for sure. Krebs is either Biggs (wait, wait!) or Wedge (the unsung hero of the Rebellion). Either way, he helps the Sabres defeat the first, or both, Death Star Stanley Cups.

[Porous Five Hole]

[dudacek]

While I think his development has been incredibly frustrating at times and in no way should he be counted on above a bottom 6 role next year, I commend Krebs for turning himself into an NHL hockey player.

He’s committed to the team and to his teammates. His production (tied for 234th among NHL forwards) is that of an average 3rd liner. He’s 86th among NHL forwards in hits. His +/- is even and his FO% a tad above 50%. He used to constantly turn the puck over, but his giveaway per 60 rate has improved just behind Benson and Thompson for 4th on the club among forwards - 112th among the 358 NHL forwards who have played 50 games.

He seems to enjoy contact and has improved in terms of winning battles. He’s conscientious about picking up his man and skates hard on the backcheck and the forecheck. We’ve seen signs that his muffin of a shot has improved. He brings energy most nights, and has just enough skill to fill in with skill guys if needed. He’s kinda become that Swiss Army knife #10/11 you plug and play where needed.

That James Patrick quote really resonates when I think about Krebs: “the league tells you what kind of player you are”. It seems to me that Peyton started off with the wrong idea, but he has listened and worked hard to transform himself into that player.

Is he important? No, but he is useful and one of the few Sabres who has improved this year.

Edited April 7 by dudacek

[Jorcus]

39 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

There has been a lot of talk about Krebs within some threads, but thread about him or discussion of where he is with this team next year.

-Is he still that "13th forward" on the team? If they actually sign some vets in the offseason is he the 'odd man in/odd man out'?

-Is he the 4th line center?

-Is he a middle 6 player?

Since the Cozens trade (removing a Center from the team) and Norris not really playing (Norris not being available to fill the Center role that was vacated by Cozens), Krebs has stepped up his minutes and his play/production.  Norris played 3 games after the trade and has not played since.  Since Cozens has been gone and Norris has stopped playing, the team has played 12 games where Krebs has had the opportunity to 'step up' into a higher role.

In those 12 games, Krebs: 12 games, 4 goals, 5 assists, +7, 14:10 minutes per game (82 game pace 27 goals, 34 assists, +48...yeah, I know small sample size)

BEFORE those 12 games, Krebs: 63 gp, 5 goals, 12 assists, -7. 13:37 minutes per game (82 game pace 7 goals, 16 assists, -9)

Lets take it one step further.  For most of the year, even in the first few games after the trade deadline, Krebs was playing with the 'lesser' players on this roster, 4th line guys, Quinn, Brett Murray, Lafferty, etc).  7 games ago, Tuch was moved to Krebs line and they have been linemates for the last 7 games. (Zucker has been on the other wing most of the time, with Rosen and Kozak spending some time with them too)

In those 7 games with Tuch on his wing (give him a legit good player): 3 goals, 5 asissts 7 games, +8

Krebs hasn't dragged down Tuch either:  7 games with Krebs as his center: 6 goals, 5 assists, +6.

Now, their 'analytics' together aren't stellar (Corsi, Fenwick, Shots, expected goals, high danger chances, etc) are all either slightly above or slightly below average), but the results in terms of production has been there.

Ok, a lot of info above, it may mean something, or maybe its too small of a sample size.  The thing I'm thinking of...has Krebs 'turned a corner' into a legit middle 6 center when given the opportunity, minutes, and decent linemates? Or is it a mirage, only looking good based on a small sample size?

 

 

 

One thing to keep in mind is how Lindy has restructured everything as of late and has seemed to find a winning combination. Instead of focusing the best talent on the top line and having a top defensive pair he has spread the talent though the line up. In the beginning of the year it was Thompson, Tuch and Peterka who were on a very good number one line. Dahlin and Byram got put together to be a very effective D pair. Now the talent is spread throughout the line up and it has seemed to lift up most of the players. Tuch, Thompson and Peterka are on 3 different lines. Dahlin, Byram and Power are on 3 different pairs. Think about who tells the other players what to do on a line. If Krebs is playing with Tuch it's Tuch telling Krebs what to do. When he is with Zucker and Tuch he is no longer the line driver like he had to be on the third and 4th lines. At times he was playing with very young line mates and he is just not in position to do that well. 

I don't really see Krebs as a 2nd line center because I don't think he is good enough to drive a line at this point. His passing is often off the mark or he is not in sync with others on the ice. 3rd and 4th lines playing mostly a defensive roll seems to be ok and getting better.  

 

 

[Archie Lee]

Krebs is one of the few forwards that we have, along with Benson, who has high-level passing/play-making skills.  As others have said, he needed to get to a point in his career where he realized he could not always make the high risk / high reward pass. It doesn't surprise me, given his age and work-ethic, that he is having a productive stretch playing with good veteran players.

Krebs is 17 months and one draft year, younger than Ryan McLeod. He is having a similar season production-wise, to what McLeod was having a year ago.  If Krebs played for a different team and we were looking to add another McLeod-like centre (not in style, but in age, pedigree, production), Krebs would be a good candidate.

Here is the problem.  Adams, completing his 5th year as GM, has built a team with 3 players who can be fully relied on to be the player we need them to be:  Dahlin, Thompson, and Tuch.  Peterka and Benson are maybe the closest to working their way into this group. After that we have veterans who we can't necessarily count on to be productive or healthy (Zucker, Greenway, Norris), and veterans who are 4th line, 3rd pair, back-ups (Malenstyn, Lafferty, Clifton, Reimer), and younger guys who we can't be sure are going to take another step (Quinn, Krebs, Kulich, Byram, Power, UPL. Levi).

Norris, Krebs, McLeod, Kulich, and Kozak, in some combination, might be a centre spine that gets us to the playoffs. But who wants to bet year 15 on it?   

[Doohickie]

Krebs is a 3/4C.  He's an energy line center.  That's good.  We need that.  To me any scoring we get out of him is gravy.  He's there to disrupt the other team, get them off their game and prevent goals.

If Kozak is on the team that probably means Krebs is 3C because I don't see Kozak slotting higher than 4 line.  If it's Östlund, Krebs is 4C (once Östlund gets used to NHL speed).  At this point he needs to provide a veteran example to the younger guys like Östlund, Kulich and Kozak.

Edited April 7 by Doohickie

[pastajoe]

If he finishes strong then Adams should use him in a trade package to acquire a top 4 defensive defenseman. They have McLeod and Kozak to fill the bottom 2 center positions, with Norris and Kulick in top 2. And who knows if Östlund will push for a spot.

[Thorny]

8 minutes ago, pastajoe said:

If he finishes strong then Adams should use him in a trade package to acquire a top 4 defensive defenseman. They have McLeod and Kozak to fill the bottom 2 center positions, with Norris and Kulick in top 2. And who knows if Östlund will push for a spot.

Kulich Kozak and Norris played a total of 80 games combined for the Sabres this season, not an egregiously reassuring total for 3/4 of the most important position in hockey 

If that’s the sort of unit we want to pencil in for next year 

Who’s the stable presence? I see bets placed on Norris, Kozak, Kulich all stacked on top of eachother. Good gamblers mentality

McLeod, I guess? That’s your reward for pleasantly surprising in your role I guess “we can’t have that, here’s more responsibility”

Edited April 7 by Thorner

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Thorner said:

Kulich Kozak and Norris played a total of 80 games combined for the Sabres this season, not an egregiously reassuring total for 3/4 of the most important position in hockey 

That’s a little bit disingenuous.  Kozak and Kulich were callups and Norris was a deadline acquisition (who admittedly promptly got hurt).  That said Kozak, Kulich and Norris have played 168 games this season between the NHL and AHL. 

I have zero issue with the idea of Kozak being a 4th liner next season, Kulich in the top 6 and Norris giving us 60 games.  We have enough other “centers” with Krebs, Lafferty and Thompson plus McLeod to have flexibility when injuries occur.   In fact, this flexibility reminds me of Hecht, Drury, Connolly, Roy, Briere and Gaustad, who all could play center or wing as needed (although Gaustad was pretty much only a center). In 2005/06 Gaustad and Roy were moving up from the AHL.  Roy had 49 games of NHL experience and Gaustad 1. Hecht, Drury, Connolly and Briere were all trade acquisitions like TNT, McLeod, Norris and Krebs.

In 2005/6 - Connolly, Briere, and Hecht all missed significant time with injury.  The biggest differences between that team and this one is 05/06 had Miller (an NHL rookie) in net and McKee, Tallinder and Lydman (an off-season acquisition) on defense.  

 

Edited April 7 by GASabresIUFAN

[Archie Lee]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s a little bit disingenuous.  Kozak and Kulich were callups and Norris was a deadline acquisition (who admittedly promptly got hurt).  That said Kozak, Kulich and Norris have played 168 games this season between the NHL and AHL. 

I have zero issue with the idea of Kozak being a 4th liner next season, Kulich in the top 6 and Norris giving us 60 games.  We have enough other “centers” with Krebs, Lafferty and Thompson plus McLeod to have flexibility when injuries occur.   In fact, this flexibility reminds me of Hecht, Drury, Connolly, Roy, Briere and Gaustad, who all could play center or wing as needed (although Gaustad was pretty much only a center). In 2005/06 Gaustad and Roy were moving up from the AHL.  Roy had 49 games of NHL experience and Gaustad 1. Hecht, Drury, Connolly and Briere were all trade acquisitions like TNT, McLeod, Norris and Krebs.

In 2005/6 - Connolly, Briere, and Hecht all missed significant time with injury.  The biggest differences between that team and this one is 05/06 had Miller (an NHL rookie) in net and McKee, Tallinder and Lydman (an off-season acquisition) on defense.  

 

I don’t think there was anything disingenuous about @Thorner’s note. He was just identifing correctly that Kulich and Kozak are rookies without a lot of NHL experience and Norris is oft-injured. 

I think we could get by with the centres you list. Thompson, Tuch, Peterka, and Benson, could be line-drivers on the wing. But, if we go into next year with a centre spine of Norris, McLeod, Kulich, Krebs, Kozak, no expert or model will be predicting playoffs. That doesn’t mean it can’t work, but it would be a big risk for a GM in year 6 with no playoff seasons. 

[triumph_communes]

He’s not longer a turnover machine like he started his career. Worth keeping, but not over spending on. 

[SwampD]

The concept of Krebs.

[Thorny]

57 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s a little bit disingenuous.  Kozak and Kulich were callups and Norris was a deadline acquisition (who admittedly promptly got hurt).  That said Kozak, Kulich and Norris have played 168 games this season between the NHL and AHL. 

I have zero issue with the idea of Kozak being a 4th liner next season, Kulich in the top 6 and Norris giving us 60 games.  We have enough other “centers” with Krebs, Lafferty and Thompson plus McLeod to have flexibility when injuries occur.   In fact, this flexibility reminds me of Hecht, Drury, Connolly, Roy, Briere and Gaustad, who all could play center or wing as needed (although Gaustad was pretty much only a center). In 2005/06 Gaustad and Roy were moving up from the AHL.  Roy had 49 games of NHL experience and Gaustad 1. Hecht, Drury, Connolly and Briere were all trade acquisitions like TNT, McLeod, Norris and Krebs.

In 2005/6 - Connolly, Briere, and Hecht all missed significant time with injury.  The biggest differences between that team and this one is 05/06 had Miller (an NHL rookie) in net and McKee, Tallinder and Lydman (an off-season acquisition) on defense.  

 

“That’s disingenuous, they were call ups”

what? That’s my point lol. Young. Inexperienced. 

57 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

That’s a little bit disingenuous.  Kozak and Kulich were callups and Norris was a deadline acquisition (who admittedly promptly got hurt).  That said Kozak, Kulich and Norris have played 168 games this season between the NHL and AHL. 

I have zero issue with the idea of Kozak being a 4th liner next season, Kulich in the top 6 and Norris giving us 60 games.  We have enough other “centers” with Krebs, Lafferty and Thompson plus McLeod to have flexibility when injuries occur.   In fact, this flexibility reminds me of Hecht, Drury, Connolly, Roy, Briere and Gaustad, who all could play center or wing as needed (although Gaustad was pretty much only a center). In 2005/06 Gaustad and Roy were moving up from the AHL.  Roy had 49 games of NHL experience and Gaustad 1. Hecht, Drury, Connolly and Briere were all trade acquisitions like TNT, McLeod, Norris and Krebs.

In 2005/6 - Connolly, Briere, and Hecht all missed significant time with injury.  The biggest differences between that team and this one is 05/06 had Miller (an NHL rookie) in net and McKee, Tallinder and Lydman (an off-season acquisition) on defense.  

 

lol and then the comparison to 2006 

i can’t 

Honestly 

Howdy doody is the man. Forwards are a masterclass. The bottom 10 finish is entirely reflective of the one or two players you want replaced and not the 95% majority. As we’ve seen with hockey, one or two players carry teams to playoffs or tank teams single-handedly 

Edited April 7 by Thorner

[Thorny]

30 minutes ago, SwampD said:

The concept of Krebs.

The concept of every year the sabres being “2006 again!”

but oh ya fire the GM 

[Pimlach]

Norris, McLeod, Kulich, Krebs, Kozak  - We have a lot of mediocrity and questions marks at center (assuming Thompson stays at wing and not counting the potential promise of Östlund or Helenius). 

Norris is a talented but not at all reliable 2C/1C.  He being on the roster is a driver to keep a winger that can play top 2 line center, which brings me to Kulich.   

Kulich is looking good but we have seen young players have up and down seasons.  Adams should not count on Kulich and Norris alone as the 1C/2C combo to snap the drought next season.  Kulich can be a productive winger though and he can help at C too.  Lindy loves options.  

McLeod is a good 3C that can help top 6 when needed.  

I think that Krebs ceiling is McLeod, maybe, but I prefer McLeod. 

I think Krebs floor is the current Kozak.   

Kozak is a 4th liner that is still developing and improving.  He did the same quality job as Krebs at 4C, and probably even better defensively.  

Östlund and Helenius should start the season in Rochester.  

Krebs can be packaged in trade to help fill the holes needed to break the drought.  We just can't keep all of these guys. 

I would like an FO that can move something around here and think bigger.  

Next Year:

New Guy (vet in prime years) - 1C/2C

Norris 1C/2C

Kulich  - winger and possible center fill-in on top 6 to cover injuries

McLeod - 3C and possible help in 2C

Kozak -  4C 

Östlund - first call up.  

Krebs - I like him but I think he is tradable and worth something in a packaged "hockey trade".  

 

Edited April 7 by Pimlach

[GoPuckYourself]

He can 100% be upgraded and should be. I like that he is having a year but like so many on this team it’s all when the team has nothing on the line. I’d like to see what Kozak can do as we already know what Krebs brings to the table imo.

[Thorny]

Are we really thinking Tage doesn’t end up back at C? Isn’t he there right now?

[dudacek]

1 minute ago, Thorner said:

Are we really thinking Tage doesn’t end up back at C? Isn’t he there right now?

He's not and has been RW for 90 per cent of his shifts this calendar year. Could be a factor of what's best for Kulich, but I think RW is where Lindy wants him.

Now Tuch/Thompson might be the best RW combo in the league, but the idea of betting on 2 of Norris (1 season above 35 points) McLeod (1 season above 30 points) and Kulich (1 season, 22 points) seems, umm, a tad optimistic?

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He's not and has been RW for 90 per cent of his shifts this calendar year. Could be a factor of what's best for Kulich, but I think RW is where Lindy wants him.

Now Tuch/Thompson might be the best RW combo in the league, but the idea of betting on 2 of Norris (1 season above 35 points) McLeod (1 season above 30 points) and Kulich (1 season, 22 points) seems, umm, a tad optimistic?

Ya he was at C the game I was at live, I guess that was in the 10% lol

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, dudacek said:

He's not and has been RW for 90 per cent of his shifts this calendar year. Could be a factor of what's best for Kulich, but I think RW is where Lindy wants him.

Now Tuch/Thompson might be the best RW combo in the league, but the idea of betting on 2 of Norris (1 season above 35 points) McLeod (1 season above 30 points) and Kulich (1 season, 22 points) seems, umm, a tad optimistic?

Leafs have a better RW combo, that’s why we need Marner 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I don’t think there was anything disingenuous about @Thorner’s note. He was just identifing correctly that Kulich and Kozak are rookies without a lot of NHL experience and Norris is oft-injured. 

I think we could get by with the centres you list. Thompson, Tuch, Peterka, and Benson, could be line-drivers on the wing. But, if we go into next year with a centre spine of Norris, McLeod, Kulich, Krebs, Kozak, no expert or model will be predicting playoffs. That doesn’t mean it can’t work, but it would be a big risk for a GM in year 6 with no playoff seasons. 

What’s disingenuous is that there is no experience at the position.  Yes Kozak and Kulich have limited NHL experience, but TNT has 442 games, McLeod 292, Norris 239 and Krebs 290.  Lafferty has 343.   

We could have a spine of TNT, Norris, McLeod and Krebs of next year without utilizing Kulich or Kozak.  That’s plenty of experience.  

I’m sorry, we have the 9th best offense in the NHL.  Despite some of our forwards being mediocre or poor 2 way players, they aren’t the issue with this team.  The problems are the defense and goaltending.  I understand wanting Adams gone (I’m in that camp), but even a new GM isn’t going to delete the entire roster and start again.  Pegula isn’t going to hire someone who wants to try rebuild 4.0.  Dahlin and a top 10 offense is a good place to start building a competitive team.  Fix the defense and goaltending and create a competitive team.  Fire the coaching staff and hopefully the new staff fixes the special teams.