GDT: Lightning @ Sabres, April 5, 2025 - 7:00PM, MSG 📺, WGR550 📻 🎙

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

These are exceptions.  Historically, the higher the pick in the first rd the better the player, especially in the top 15. 

It's not really about 'the higher the pick, the better the odds' though. Math says that's self-evident.

What the math doesn't account for is the actual picks in a very specific sample size: scouts having the foresight to choose Makar at 2, or Suzuki at 8, instead of letting them slip 4 and 13, respectively.

Or the odds that you're going to avoid the Cody Glass and Lias Andersson type picks in the top 10.

What is doesn't show is that in any given draft, the odds of getting a true difference-maker between 4 and 10 aren't that great and they aren't really a function of where in that range you pick.

In the 2010s, these are the "stars" picked in that range:

• 2010: the best player taken was Jeff Skinner at 8
• 2011: Zibanejad, Schiefele, Couturier and Hamilton went 6, 7, 8, 9
• 2012: Morgan Rielly and Hampus Lindholm at 5 and 6
• 2013: Jones, E. Lindholm, Monahan, Nurse, Risto, Horvat and Nichushkin 4-10
• 2014: Nylander at 8 probably the first actual star taken in that range so far this decade. Next two that year are probably Ehlers at 9 or Bennett at 4.
• 2015: Marner at 4, Werenski at 8 and Rantanen at 10 were the cream
• 2016; Tkachuk and Keller at 6-7 were the cream here
• 2017: with Makar and Pettersson at 4-5 we have our first examples of a team actually benefiting from being at the top of this stretch
• 2018: Hughes at 7 and Tkachuk at 4 are the studs.
• 2019: Seider at 6 is the guy and one of only 2 studs taken in the entire top 10.

I'm sorry, but historically it's a bit of a dart board.

And that doesn't even account for the cultural questions created by a team "trying to lose", particularly one as infested with losing as this one.

Nope,  learned my lesson. I'll take the wins. even in garbage time.

Edited April 6 by dudacek

[LGR4GM]

48 minutes ago, JohnC said:

We simply disagree on this issue. However, do you believe that our sycophantic GM is more likely to follow your approach or mine leaning toward patience? 

I think our gm is a moron. You're not preaching patience, you're preaching complacency. 

Also you're preaching fear. What if Quinn becomes really good! I'm more worried about a franchise that can't win than worrying if in 2-3 more years Quinn figures it out. 

Edited April 6 by LGR4GM

[JohnC]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

I think our gm is a moron. You're not preaching patience, you're preaching complacency. 

If you believe that I have a high regard for our GM, you are grotesquely wrong. I'm far from taking a complacent attitude towards improving the team. You are distorting what I have said regarding Quinn to make a case on your behalf. We simply disagree on what the upside is for this particular young player. That's okay. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out with this player. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you believe that I have a high regard for our GM, you are grotesquely wrong. I'm far from taking a complacent attitude towards improving the team. You are distorting what I have said regarding Quinn to make a case on your behalf. We simply disagree on what the upside is for this particular young player. That's okay. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out with this player. 

No I haven't. I think you're complacent, and willing, to sit around and see what happens with Jack Quinn. I haven't distorted anything you've said, I simply shared my view. 

You brought the gm into the conversation, not me. I've yet to say anything comparing you to Adams. Your first statement is just fake news. 

Edited April 6 by LGR4GM

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

No I haven't. I think you're complacent, and willing, to sit around and see what happens. I haven't distorted anything you've said, I simply shared my view. 

You are a legend in your own mind. Congratulations on your copious pomposity. What is intoxicating for some is insufferable for others. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JohnC said:

You are a legend in your own mind. Congratulations on your copious pomposity. What is intoxicating for some is insufferable for others. 

No, I just can keep conversations straight. Notice how you don't refute my response, because you can't. I didn't compare you to the GM. Your attitude on Quinn, in my opinion, is complacent. I said why. Now you're going into personal attacks, good luck with that. 

Feel free to block me.  

[SwampD]

10 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you believe that I have a high regard for our GM, you are grotesquely wrong. I'm far from taking a complacent attitude towards improving the team. You are distorting what I have said regarding Quinn to make a case on your behalf. We simply disagree on what the upside is for this particular young player. That's okay. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out with this player. 

Wait,… Wuh?!

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No, I just can keep conversations straight. Notice how you don't refute my response, because you can't. I didn't compare you to the GM. Your attitude on Quinn, in my opinion, is complacent. I said why. Now you're going into personal attacks, good luck with that. 

Feel free to block me.  

Sometimes you don't recognize how obnoxious you can be. You are giving an opinion just as I am. It's not about refuting you or me as it is expressing different opinions. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Sometimes you don't recognize how obnoxious you can be. You are giving an opinion just as I am. It's not about refuting you or me as it is expressing different opinions. 

You lied about what I said, twice. You can't refute that, and back off the personal attacks. I won't take it a 3rd time.

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, SwampD said:

Wait,… Wuh?!

I don't understand the point you are attempting to make. I believe that a particular young player has more upside. There are others that see this particular player with less upside. I'm willing to wait on him a little longer. That has little to do with complacency as it does with evaluation of a player. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd give him 15 games. Metrics look the same, trade him. 

 

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

We simply disagree on this issue. However, do you believe that our sycophantic GM is more likely to follow your approach or mine leaning toward patience? 

 

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think our gm is a moron. You're not preaching patience, you're preaching complacency. 

Also you're preaching fear. What if Quinn becomes really good! I'm more worried about a franchise that can't win than worrying if in 2-3 more years Quinn figures it out. 

See here, I give my opinion of our gm based on you asking. Then I say that you're preaching complacency in regards to Quinn. I even added that I see it as fear too. 

17 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you believe that I have a high regard for our GM, you are grotesquely wrong. I'm far from taking a complacent attitude towards improving the team. You are distorting what I have said regarding Quinn to make a case on your behalf. We simply disagree on what the upside is for this particular young player. That's okay. We'll just have to wait and see how things play out with this player. 

All of this is not what I said. I literally started saying give him 15 games and see how he does. I'm not making a case at all. I'm sharing my philosophy. 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You lied about what I said, twice. You can't refute that, and back off the personal attacks. I won't take it a 3rd time.

Give it a freaking rest! 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I don't understand the point you are attempting to make. I believe that a particular young player has more upside. There are others that see this particular player with less upside. I'm willing to wait on him a little longer. That has little to do with complacency as it does with evaluation of a player. 

Fine. I view your tone differently. 

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

I don't understand the point you are attempting to make. I believe that a particular young player has more upside. There are others that see this particular player with less upside. I'm willing to wait on him a little longer. That has little to do with complacency as it does with evaluation of a player. 

The fact that you don’t see my point is exactly the point LGR is trying to make. 

[JohnC]

Just now, LGR4GM said:

Fine. I view your tone differently. 

And I view your haughty tone as irritating. 

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JohnC said:

And I view your haughty tone as irritating. 

Oddly enough this is how I see your responses. 

Good day. 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, SwampD said:

The fact that you don’t see my point is exactly the point LGR is trying to make. 

I know exactly the point LGR is making. I simply disagree with it. If it's not understood, then so be it. I can handle a difference of opinion. 

[SwampD]

Just now, JohnC said:

I know exactly the point LGR is making. I simply disagree with it. If it's not understood, then so be it. I can handle a difference of opinion. 

But didn’t he even say give him 15 games? Isn’t that enough evaluation? Hope is not a plan. If you can make the team better immediately by trading Quinn, you do it. You disagree. I think you’re wrong. I’m sick of waiting for guys to get good. 

[LGR4GM]

Oddly enough, I like Jack Quinn. He's gotta show up though, we can't have another season of waiting 60ish games for guys to get going. 

[JohnC]

9 minutes ago, SwampD said:

But didn’t he even say give him 15 games? Isn’t that enough evaluation? Hope is not a plan. If you can make the team better immediately by trading Quinn, you do it. You disagree. I think you’re wrong. I’m sick of waiting for guys to get good. 

He did say 15 games. I would give him a longer period of time. Not an unlimited period of time just more than he would. We have different opinions on the time frame on that issue. Big freaking deal. As I said before: TBD. 

Edited April 6 by JohnC

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, EM88 said:

Jack Quinn in the past 2 years has not shown that he is willing or that he has the ability to do the things that make up a complete hockey player.

I am saying nothing that others have not said here. As you mentioned he is a very good sniper when he has open ice. 

He does not backcheck very hard. He does not seem to be able to carry the puck around the offensive zone and find his own shooting seam. He does not win battles, nor often even engage in battles for loose pucks.  When I watch him play, it seems like he is doing everything at 60% maximum speed.

I am glad he is scoring lately. But other than his shot he seems to be a minor league level player out there.

You might not be old enough to remember this but he reminds me of Jacques Richard. All the skills to potentially be great, but generally just floated and underachieved. He had one good year in Quebec but otherwise a disappointing career. 

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

If you can’t acknowledge good play when it happens, then why bother to watch or follow them?

Of course, I’m disappointed at how this season transpired, but what do you want the team at this stage of the season to do? Just give up and not give effort?

Oh please. Don't go down that road of measuring fandom. 

All I'm saying is I've seen this before and it means nothing for the future. You've seen it before. It's not a measure of what we will see next year. Not in any way.

[kas23]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd give him 15 games. Metrics look the same, trade him. 

I wouldn’t even give him the 15 games. Quinn is probably at his highest value since being injured. Giving an extra 15 games would be a gamble unless he has a much different offseason than last summer. Trade him for a defensively-sound top 6 forward. We also have prospects coming out our ears who could probably replace at the same production, minus the injury concern overhang. 

[Brawndo]

18 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Hoping they are playing for themselves and their coach.  That would be better. It’s really up to the guys in the room to set a standard. 

I loved growing up in Ken Ton.  Started on the west side of Buffalo.  Loved that too.  

I’m lucky my kids got to play in the same backyards that my wife and I did growing up. 
 

 

[inkman]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Oh please. Don't go down that road of measuring fandom. 

My fandom is huge