GDT: Lightning @ Sabres, April 5, 2025 - 7:00PM, MSG 📺, WGR550 📻 🎙

[mjd1001]

43 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Not necessarily. Maybe he will be relegated to the bench when those players return next year. But the scenario you described is what we want to happen i.e. competing for roster spots and roles. That's a good thing, not something to lament. (I'm aware that you are not saying that.) For too long, this regime has worked under the system that young players were bestowed their roster spots and roles. That era is over with. Ruff is right in playing players who are outperforming their teammates. The goalie position is a good example of that. Samuelsson has been dispatched to the "suite" for inadequate play. Now he seems to be playing at a consistently good level. Both Quinn and JJP have watched games from the "suite" instead of being on the bench. And that sterner evaluation of play has seemed to have worked. 

The Sabres are at a stage where they have built up some depth to the point that when injuries happen the drop off isn't as noticeable with the replacements. Players like Quinn, UPL, Samuelsson etc. are now going to be pushed instead of always feeling comfortable that their spot in the lineup is guaranteed. I find that encouraging. 

 

Not to keep falling back on analytics, as others have said (and I personally DO believe myself) analytics don't tell the whole story. But they do tell SOME of the story....

I looked at Quinn this year to see where his numbers are good and where they are bad, mostly with who he plays best with as his center.  His numbers are decent with Tage, but most players are good with Tage.   So what about everyone else he has spent time with?

He's the best with Krebs, by a pretty good amount. They have played 200+ minutes together. Not a ton, but certainly not insignificant.

With Krebs as his center, Quinn's Corsi is almost 7 points higher than with everyone else combined besides Krebs (including Tage in that mix). Fenwick over 5 points higher. Shots 4 points higher. Expected goals almost 10 points higher. High danger chances 7 points higher, and actual high danger goals for vs against 14 points higher.

I don't think this proves that he should immediately go back with Krebs and his problems are solved.  But, he looks lost without the puck playing with McLeod, so I'd like to see him play a few more games with Krebs before the year ends.

[JohnC]

8 minutes ago, SwampD said:

 

I enjoyed the win. It means nothing towards next year. I can’t believe people are getting sucked in once again.

 

 

That's my point. Enjoy the win. Next year is next year. The Sabres played a good game last night. When the games are played next season, I'll judge those games when they happen. If anyone is going to be agitated about these concluding seasonal games, then don't watch them. Self-flagellation is painful, and also unnecessary right now. 

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Not to keep falling back on analytics, as others have said (and I personally DO believe myself) analytics don't tell the whole story. But they do tell SOME of the story....

I looked at Quinn this year to see where his numbers are good and where they are bad, mostly with who he plays best with as his center.  His numbers are decent with Tage, but most players are good with Tage.   So what about everyone else he has spent time with?

He's the best with Krebs, by a pretty good amount. They have played 200+ minutes together. Not a ton, but certainly not insignificant.

With Krebs as his center, Quinn's Corsi is almost 7 points higher than with everyone else combined besides Krebs (including Tage in that mix). Fenwick over 5 points higher. Shots 4 points higher. Expected goals almost 10 points higher. High danger chances 7 points higher, and actual high danger goals for vs against 14 points higher.

I don't think this proves that he should immediately go back with Krebs and his problems are solved.  But, he looks lost without the puck playing with McLeod, so I'd like to see him play a few more games with Krebs before the year ends.

You are making good analytical arguments as to not only how best to use this particular player but also all players. Who fits where and with whom. These puzzle pieces are constantly shifting with changing rosters due to new players and injuries. In some respect you are reinforcing my main point about Quinn: That he has offensive skills and some defensive liabilities. The question becomes: Where do we play him and with whom do we play him with? Those are tough coaching decisions that need to be made about him and other players as well. What I'm strenuously arguing not to do is be premature in assessing him and dealing him off. 

[SwampD]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

You are making good analytical arguments as to not only how best to use this particular player but also all players. Who fits where and with whom. These puzzle pieces are constantly shifting with changing rosters due to new players and injuries. In some respect you are reinforcing my main point about Quinn: That he has offensive skills and some defensive liabilities. The question becomes: Where do we play him and with whom do we play him with? Those are tough coaching decisions that need to be made about him and other players as well. What I'm strenuously arguing not to do is be premature in assessing him and dealing him off. 

The only reason for this is his injury. For me, the real question is and has been, is he an actual NHL player. He definitely has some NHL skills, but that doesn’t mean he is an actual NHL player. I would always trade away potential for actual,… even before 14 years…

[bob_sauve28]

I had a really fun time at the game. Very happy they won, and really I was just expecting them to win even after they fell behind twice. They looked like the better team most of the night. 

The fans were really into it. The place was fairly well packed, their was a vibrant atmosphere from the time we got down town all they way through and after. Must admit there were a lot of Lightening fans in attendance, too. The game being close contributed to everyone just having a good time. Lots of young kids in attendance having a ball and lots of adults laughing and drinking up. The stadium people do a good job getting the fans going and making everyone laugh, by like, showing people on the big screen stuffing their faces or just focusing in on young kids making them go wild with laughter. The players came over to the glass and were flipping pucks up to young kids who were thrilled to get them. I understand better now why they play better at home. They are comfortable there and seem to like the fans as much as the fans like them. During pre-game the two former Pens Guentzel and Zucker were yucking it up together at center ice, which was interesting to watch. It was great to see Zembus get honored by not only the fans, but players on both benches.  

As to the game, Benson just looked excellent. He had that great assist but just looks good even against really big players like Cernak who he battled all night. Mule looked really good also. I sure hope there is a plan to re-sign Reimer, he is a rock and I don't care how old he is,  he is our best goaltender. 

[inkman]

12 hours ago, Thorner said:

This team is indisputably back 

 

This dude is reckless. This team deserves no kudos or accolades.  What they deserve right now is scrutiny for not playing like this all season.  Was Cozens a major issue that was making everyone else around him worse?  It looks that way.  Is this team suddenly a Cup contender now that an aging goaltender is on a bender?  Eat a bag of ***** Mike Bundt. 

[Flashsabre]

Being a Sabres fan right now is very conflicting.

When I tune in to watch I want to see them win.

I don’t care about draft position even though these wins mean nothing. The draft is not that strong that I’m worried.

The problem is that this organization year after year falls into this false sense that end of year results when there is no pressure on will carry over to the following season and it never does.

Pegula will look at this run and say “Adams is on the right path here. Just a little more patience. Then that allows Adams to continue on and we all know where that leads.

This team is not that far away but real change needs to be made.

They need to figure out up front. Is Tage a centre or winger? They have to sign JJ. IDK what to think with Quinn. Where is Kulich’s long term fit? A guy like Östlund will be pushing next year and is the exact type of centre they need. Maybe not to start the season but at some point next year he will be up. What is the plan with Kozak and how does it effect Krebs future. Norris is a real wildcard. The forward version of Muel. What will his availability look like? Solid player when playing.

On the backend they need to figure out what they are doing. I think Byram needs to go. They seem to want to make Muel-Dahlin the thing again but Muel’s health is always an issue. Power on the second pair. JBD has looked solid. Clifton has one year left. I don’t know if Novikov is ready yet. Maybe sign a solid physical LHD for a year for the 3rd pairing.

In net, UPL has looked lost and lost the spot to a 37 year old. Levi has done what you want in Rochester but hasn’t set the world on fire in callups. That’s OK, Miller was like that too at the beginning.

And don’t get me started on the coaching staff. A decent PP and this team is sniffing playoffs this year. And the pieces are there to be a very good PP team.

Edited Sunday at 02:30 PM by Flashsabre

[steveoath]

47 minutes ago, Believer said:

Graves is an interesting idea. Looks like he doesn’t fit the Pens plans next year, and could be waived. Big guy, but not an enforcer, considered a positionally sound LHD man.

Ah. My bad. I thought he was a righty.  Offer muel? 

[dudacek]

Streaks are relevant.

Seasons are more relevant

Body of work is most relevant.

It’s true whether you are talking about James Reimer, Jack Quinn or Kevyn Adams.

If our decision-makers are basing major decisions mostly on the past 10 games at any point in the season, we’re lost anyway.

Edited Sunday at 02:36 PM by dudacek

[kas23]

I know this is what has happened the last 3 seasons in a row. And I know recency bias is strong here, but I don’t think I’m on board with blowing things up. Firing everyone will guarantee more losing seasons.
 

I don’t want them to run it back though. They need to go into this offseason with a different plan, starting with a structured conditioning program. Professionals enter the season ready to play. It takes the Sabres about 3-4 months to be ready to play. If Ruff wants to step aside, I’m fine with this. But, I want him picking the next HC, not KA or Terry. They also need a better plan for goaltending not named Levi. He needs another year in Rochester. 

[Believer]

6 minutes ago, steveoath said:

Ah. My bad. I thought he was a righty.  Offer muel? 

Even up? Think Samuelson is overrated, but has more value at his age than Graves. Have no problem trading Samuelson just would want something more than just Graves for him. A 2nd or 3rd round draft pick, perhaps.

[MISabresFan]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

That's my point. Enjoy the win. Next year is next year. The Sabres played a good game last night. When the games are played next season, I'll judge those games when they happen. If anyone is going to be agitated about these concluding seasonal games, then don't watch them. Self-flagellation is painful, and also unnecessary right now. 

This team is only good when it doesn't matter, when they are out of the playoffs.  

[dudacek]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 No question on an NHL level, but organizationally would you rather take away from another failed season a top 4 pick or a top 10 pick?  All winning right now does is f’up our draft position and convince TP and Howdy Doody to run it back one more time. To make it even worse, the more counting stats the RFAs pick up, the bigger their next contract.  This is one time where winning hurt more than it helps.  

The draft just seems so ***** random anyway.

• #1 Nico Hischier
• #2 Nolan Patrick
• #3 Miro Heiskanen
• #4 Cale Makar
• #5 Elias Petterson
• #6 Cody Glass
• #7 Lias Andersson
• #8 Casey Mittelstadt 
• #9 Michael Rasmussen
• #10 Owen Tippett

Gabe Villardi, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris and Robert Thomas all went in the next 10 picks.

Mittelstadt is 10th most productive player from that draft. 

The top 9, in order, were picked: 5, 4, 1, 39, 20, 13, 12, 121 and 3.

• In 2018, it goes: 7, 4, 2, 1, 10, 12, 14, 141, 3, 49
• In 2016, it goes: 1, 6, 39, 7, 162, 2, 3, 66, 35

After what we’ve been through I am surprised anyone around here can still get themselves behind losing for high picks as a strategy.

Edited Sunday at 03:05 PM by dudacek

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

The fans were really into it. The place was fairly well packed, their was a vibrant atmosphere from the time we got down town all they way through and after. Must admit there were a lot of Lightening fans in attendance, too. The game being close contributed to everyone just having a good time. Lots of young kids in attendance having a ball and lots of adults laughing and drinking up. The stadium people do a good job getting the fans going and making everyone laugh, by like, showing people on the big screen stuffing their faces or just focusing in on young kids making them go wild with laughter. The players came over to the glass and were flipping pucks up to young kids who were thrilled to get them.

Whenever I get too down about the Sabres, I think about what you said above that is bolded.

As a Kid, sure, I wanted them to win, but it wasn't always 'playoffs or bust' or 'win the cup or bust'. Hockey was a game that was fun. I enjoyed the game in front of me.  The standings were secondary to seeing one individual good game. Playoff positioning? Spot you are drafting? LOL, worry about that later or not at all.....I just saw a goal and the loud horn went off and it was fun!

Edited Sunday at 03:22 PM by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The draft just seems so ***** random anyway.

• #1 Nico Hischier
• #2 Nolan Patrick
• #3 Miro Heiskanen
• #4 Cale Makar
• #5 Elias Petterson
• #6 Cody Glass
• #7 Lias Andersson
• #8 Casey Mittelstadt 
• #9 Michael Rasmussen
• #10 Owen Tippett

Gabe Villardi, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris and Robert Thomas all went in the next 10 picks.

Mittelstadt is 10th most productive player from that draft. 

The top 9, in order, were picked: 5, 4, 1, 39, 20, 13, 12, 121 and 3.

• In 2018, it goes: 7, 4, 2, 1, 10, 12, 14, 141, 3, 49
• In 2016, it goes: 1, 6, 39, 7, 162, 2, 3, 66, 35

After what we’ve been through I am surprised anyone around here can still get themselves behind losing for high picks as a strategy.

I always would rather have a higher draft pick, but there are times to 'go for that pick' and times not too, and most times are not worth it.

Your above example is good.  Another one to illustrate that development, and luck/random chance might be looking at Tage Thomnpson. He has turned into one of the elite goal scorers in the league.  He was drafted 26th overall. In that draft the Sabres drafted 8th and took Alex Nylander. Other top 10 picks that year included: Jesse Puljujarvi, Oli Juolevi, and Tyson Jost.

Thompson was drafted as center (listed as) and was the 9th taken overall.

Yeah, you can go to any draft and find someone good taken in the bottom of the first round who turned out better than someone taken in the top of the first round, but that is the point, isn't it?  You always would rather have the higher pick, but unless you are going #1 overall, is picking a couple spots higher worth losing?  Maybe, but also maybe not.

[Doohickie]

11 hours ago, Indabuff said:

I live in Hamburg now but I always tell people I'm from Cheektowaga. 

Central?  Maryvale?  Cleve Hill?

[Doohickie]

11 hours ago, pi2000 said:

harlem and maryvale iirc,  grew up less than 2 miles from there...

I grew up near Union and Genesee, down the street from U-Crest firehall.  About two miles from there.

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

13 hours ago, Thorner said:

Adams will have a hard time finding anything to do this summer, tbh 

They are forcing Adams to stay his hand 

There’s not much he can do imo 

I have to thank you for your unyielding sarcasm. It’s magnificent. I have really enjoyed reading this with my morning coffee.

Sarcasm?  Whew.  For a minute there I thought @Thorner had flipped his wig.  It's been so consistent I started to read it as genuine.

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

The only reason for this is his injury. For me, the real question is and has been, is he an actual NHL player. He definitely has some NHL skills, but that doesn’t mean he is an actual NHL player. I would always trade away potential for actual,… even before 14 years…

With respect to Quinn I would rather be patient and get a better sense of what his potential is. The organization possesses plenty of other assets to possibly trade. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The draft just seems so ***** random anyway.

• #1 Nico Hischier
• #2 Nolan Patrick
• #3 Miro Heiskanen
• #4 Cale Makar
• #5 Elias Petterson
• #6 Cody Glass
• #7 Lias Andersson
• #8 Casey Mittelstadt 
• #9 Michael Rasmussen
• #10 Owen Tippett

Gabe Villardi, Martin Necas, Nick Suzuki, Josh Norris and Robert Thomas all went in the next 10 picks.

Mittelstadt is 10th most productive player from that draft. 

The top 9, in order, were picked: 5, 4, 1, 39, 20, 13, 12, 121 and 3.

• In 2018, it goes: 7, 4, 2, 1, 10, 12, 14, 141, 3, 49
• In 2016, it goes: 1, 6, 39, 7, 162, 2, 3, 66, 35

After what we’ve been through I am surprised anyone around here can still get themselves behind losing for high picks as a strategy.

These are exceptions.  Historically, the higher the pick in the first rd the better the player, especially in the top 15. 

Edited Sunday at 04:29 PM by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

42 minutes ago, JohnC said:

With respect to Quinn I would rather be patient and get a better sense of what his potential is. The organization possesses plenty of other assets to possibly trade. 

I'd give him 15 games. Metrics look the same, trade him. 

[JohnC]

29 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd give him 15 games. Metrics look the same, trade him. 

We simply disagree on this issue. However, do you believe that our sycophantic GM is more likely to follow your approach or mine leaning toward patience? 

Edited Sunday at 05:24 PM by JohnC

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

With respect to Quinn I would rather be patient and get a better sense of what his potential is. The organization possesses plenty of other assets to possibly trade. 

I don't think it has anything to do with patience.  No serious person is asking Adams, or whoever the GM is, to recklessly toss away young assets.  It is simply the case that you can't keep everyone and also add an additional veteran or two who helps us get into the playoffs.  The Sabres can't keep young players Quinn, Benson, Peterka, Kulich, and Kozak, stick with core players Tuch, Thompson, Greenway, Krebs, be glad they have some newer vets under contract in Zucker, McLeod, Malenstyyn and Norris, maybe add in a new kid like Rosen or Östlund, AND also add a middle-top-6 veteran or two. There will not be roster room or cap space for this. Players need to go out in order to bring in players who will make us better. It's ok to trade someone who goes on to have a great career, so long as they get back the player(s) needed to move the program forward.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 05:20 PM by Archie Lee

[JohnC]

Just now, Archie Lee said:

I don't think it has anything to do with patience.  No serious person is asking Adams, or whoever the GM is, to recklessly toss away young assets.  It is simply the case that you can't keep everyone and also add an additional veteran or two who helps us get into the playoffs.  The Sabres can't keep young players Quinn, Benson, Peterka, Kulich, and Kozak, stick with core players Tuch, Thompson, Greenway, Krebs, be glad they have some newer vets under contract in Zucker, McLeod, Malenstyyn and Norris, maybe add in a new kid like Rosen or Östlund, AND also add a middle-top-6 veteran or two. There will not be roster room or cap space for this. Players need to go out in order to bring in players who will make us better. It's ok if we trade someone and they go on to have a great career, so long as they get back the player(s) needed to move the program forward.

 

 

Quinn playing well doesn't diminish his value, it increases it. I'm not an ideologue/resistant to trading any young player with the exception of Power. I'm open to any deal that improves this team if it makes sense. What it comes down to is that I believe that Quinn has more upside than many others do. TBD. 

[Mr Peabody]

I’d like to see Quinn put on 20+ lbs lbs of muscle and I’m sure his D and board work would improve significantly.  Seeing him in T shirts in the locker room shows he needs some upper body work.