Sabres have done it! No longer last in Eastern Conference

[Mr. Allen]

40 minutes ago, Demoted said:

You think they would grab the right guy even with a higher pick?

Yes.  If we were 4th as opposed to 7.  I do. 

[LGR4GM]

28 minutes ago, Mr. Allen said:

Yes.  If we were 4th as opposed to 7.  I do. 

I suppose we're talking Martone versus... everyone not named Desnoyers and Frondell? So there is a good list. 

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

You know how I know you're a Bruins fan?

I've never denied they are my second team and have carried me through dark Sabres times. I told my full story on this site. SFW?

I am merely relaying things from the Bruins forum that I thought might amuse. For the first time in over a decade they are cheering losing/tanking. It's quite funny to me. 

Want to hear something else funny? They are starting to hate on Mittelstadt. 

[Brawndo]

35 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I've never denied they are my second team and have carried me through dark Sabres times. I told my full story on this site. SFW?

I am merely relaying things from the Bruins forum that I thought might amuse. For the first time in over a decade they are cheering losing/tanking. It's quite funny to me. 

Want to hear something else funny? They are starting to hate on Mittelstadt. 

I am looking forward to Boston bottoming out, rebuilding and making the playoffs before the Sabres do 

[LGR4GM]

15 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I am looking forward to Boston bottoming out, rebuilding and making the playoffs before the Sabres do 

They'll win the lottery this year or next. 

[Brawndo]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

They'll win the lottery this year or next. 

Probably this year, Pittsburgh will win the Gavin McKenna Lottery next year 

[Mr. Allen]

2 hours ago, Demoted said:

You think they would grab the right guy even with a higher pick?

And I actually think the Sabres have done a pretty good job in the draft the last couple of years.  Especially in the 1st.  
I didn’t like the Power/Rosen draft.  But after that they’ve drafted well. 
 

[PerreaultForever]

38 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I am looking forward to Boston bottoming out, rebuilding and making the playoffs before the Sabres do 

This off season is certainly a strange one for them. I can see a scenario where they get right back in it quickly but like with most teams a lot of things would have to go right. Number one Swayman has to get his mojo back. If he doesn't they will be in the McKenna lottery. 

21 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Probably this year, Pittsburgh will win the Gavin McKenna Lottery next year 

Sadly this is quite possible. 

[Big Guava]

2 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Yes.  If we were 4th as opposed to 7.  I do. 

I don't see this team having any issue drafting players. They have drafted numerous good players no matter where they have been in the draft.

[Brawndo]

 

[Drag0nDan]

37 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

They've definitely been outshot in every one of those games considerably so the corsi makes sense.  I'm not sure exactly how xGF% is calculated but i know being closer to the net tends to result in a higher xGF%, and i'd imagine more shots in general tilts that statistic.  

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

They've definitely been outshot in every one of those games considerably so the corsi makes sense.  I'm not sure exactly how xGF% is calculated but i know being closer to the net tends to result in a higher xGF%, and i'd imagine more shots in general tilts that statistic.  

xGF% is the division of xgf and xga. To answer your question, yes more shots against would raise the xGA and since Buffalo is not shooting as much you get that discrepancy. The way expected goals work, is each spot on the ice has a sh% more or less. So what is the average sh% from this spot in the ice over the entire league. This, as has been debated here, doesn't take individual skill into account so Thompson shooting from 10ft out is the same as Benson in the metrics. It helps to normalize and adjust for shots. The better models look at shot type, speed, and they are starting to examine pre-puck movement. 

xGF is basically better corsi because it doesn't treat all shots the same. Teams that are -xGF% (so they are below 50%) are the teams that don't make the playoffs and lose more games. That is the general correlation and takeaway. 

[dudacek]

My perception of the sabres relative to other teams is that they score a higher percentage of their goals by 'snipes'.

They aren't a high-volume 'shoot from everywhere 'team, or a 'crash the net for rebounds and deflections' team.

They are a 'find some open space from 30 feet and beat the goalie' team.

And because they have guys like Tage and JJ moving and shooting the puck, they're relatively successful at scoring goals that way.

I don't know how "attacking styles" affects xgf numbers, but they must.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

My perception of the sabres relative to other teams is that they score a higher percentage of their goals by 'snipes'.

They aren't a high-volume 'shoot from everywhere 'team, or a 'crash the net for rebounds and deflections' team.

They are a 'find some open space from 30 feet and beat the goalie' team.

And because they have guys like Tage and JJ moving and shooting the puck, they're relatively successful at scoring goals that way.

I don't know how "attacking styles" affects xgf numbers, but they must.

I think the issue is when Tage or JJP are getting stopped we don't have a backup way of scoring goals regularly. All shooters go through cold periods and we've seen that. Buffalo is a one dimension offensive team still. 

[matter2003]

3 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think the issue is when Tage or JJP are getting stopped we don't have a backup way of scoring goals regularly. All shooters go through cold periods and we've seen that. Buffalo is a one dimension offensive team still. 

 

Tuch has 32 goals

[Drag0nDan]

21 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think the issue is when Tage or JJP are getting stopped we don't have a backup way of scoring goals regularly. All shooters go through cold periods and we've seen that. Buffalo is a one dimension offensive team still. 

I'm liking seeing tuch and mcleod looking for tip ins more frequently.  If team's are forcing you to shoot from the perimeter then make it harder to see, get some tips and rebounds.  I feel like every line needs that, and every d-pair needs a shooter.  

[LGR4GM]

18 hours ago, matter2003 said:

 

Tuch has 32 goals

Dudacek specifically mentioned JJP and Tage, which is why I focused on them in my response. 

[Thorner]

22 hours ago, dudacek said:

My perception of the sabres relative to other teams is that they score a higher percentage of their goals by 'snipes'.

They aren't a high-volume 'shoot from everywhere 'team, or a 'crash the net for rebounds and deflections' team.

They are a 'find some open space from 30 feet and beat the goalie' team.

And because they have guys like Tage and JJ moving and shooting the puck, they're relatively successful at scoring goals that way.

I don't know how "attacking styles" affects xgf numbers, but they must.

They are exactly this, they draft players in the mold, and they are apparently encouraging it from Östlund, etc. I’m much more of an old school, play D and playmake type guy re: entertainment value, but.. kids these days 

Norris has one of the worst primary assist rates in the league. They like snipers 

[Big Guava]

1 hour ago, Thorner said:

They are exactly this, they draft players in the mold, and they are apparently encouraging it from Östlund, etc. I’m much more of an old school, play D and playmake type guy re: entertainment value, but.. kids these days 

Norris has one of the worst primary assist rates in the league. They like snipers 

But they are among the NHL's elite teams at scoring. They need to work on the D/Goaltending side of things.

Edited 4 hours ago by Big Guava

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorner said:

They are exactly this, they draft players in the mold, and they are apparently encouraging it from Östlund, etc. I’m much more of an old school, play D and playmake type guy re: entertainment value, but.. kids these days 

Norris has one of the worst primary assist rates in the league. They like snipers 

One would think that finding playmaking winger or two to take advantage of the way Tage, Kulich and Norris can shoot (and Quinn, Peterka and Tuch for that matter) should be an off-season focus.

I mean I guess I number of those guys can also pass, and that's also the hope for Benson, but its certainly skewed.

I'm again struck by what a perfect fit Mitch Marner would be be in the off-season.

[Thorner]

29 minutes ago, Big Guava said:

But they are among the NHL's elite teams at scoring. They need to work on the D/Goaltending side of things.

The question here is of style, that’s the framing: “sniping” is the style by which they achieve the high goal scoring for (and apparently at least some of the high goals against) rates 

Edited 4 hours ago by Thorner