GDT: Sabres @ Senators, April 1, 2025 - 7:00PM, MSG 📺, WGR550 📻 🎙

[Thorner]

 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Deliberatley obfuscated the numbers? Really, c'mon now, I NEVER type in a bad number unless its by mistake. I typed 15 goals instead of 14 goals, ands that is the point you are going to make? that is deliberately obvuscating the numbers? Thats a joke.  Its called a MISTAKE and it was by one goal and STILL did not change the results of my argument.

You want to keep telling me I'm wrong, or saying ONE mistake I made by ONE goal is DELIBERATELY OBFUSCATING the numbers? You bet I'll call you a schill for your argument and probably a lot more.

You throwing out numbers that you choose does not make you correct.  Its also a joke that since I value different numbers, you come at me and just say what I say is "incorrect".  

And the teammate argument?  I can say, and somewhat believe that the 3rd line is the EASIEST line to play on.  Kulich playing with Tage usually means he is playing against the other teams best shutdown guys.  The lines Benson is on...usually means he is NOT given the 4th line assignment of shutting down the opposing teams top line, but neither is he facing the other teams top shut down guys.

Again, You may disagree with me thats fine. But its a bit juvenile coming back at someone and jumping all over a 1 goal error or saying its incorrect or wrong because I am judging people on using different metrics than you.  I'm ALL for using advanced stats to support an argument, but I never use them as the end-all-be-all of winning my argument, apparently you do.  Whatever I guess. 

You think Benson is a better player right now. I think Kulich is. Fine, just stop escalating your rhetoric at me about it...we disagree, get over it.

No I'm saying using "single digits" and "over 12%" was a deliberate attempt to obfuscate the numbers. I generally feel typing 15 instead of 14 is just a mistake. 

[LGR4GM]

44 minutes ago, Thorner said:

 

Yea, the team isn't good enough. I think we need to be open to moving a top 6 forward and 2 defenders or we're gonna be outside again looking in.

[Thorner]

The shooting percentage thing is extremely observable even without looking at the stats. When they wind up right now it has the “feeling” it’s gonna go in

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Thorner said:

The shooting percentage thing is extremely observable even without looking at the stats. When they wind up right now it has the “feeling” it’s gonna go in

Sadly, the Sabres front office ignores inconvenient information. 

[Pimlach]

8 hours ago, Thorner said:

 

@Thorner, I give this thumbs downs, not because of you, but because of the message from Go Bills.  The Sabres are playing better and they are getting great goaltending - hence the 5-1. 

I’m not saying they are a good team either, they are a work in progress, but they deserved to win the games they won. 

This XGF, HDCF, FF% analytic stuff is fine buts it’s not everything.  One game out of the 5 wins was because Reimer stood on his head.  Other than that they outplayed their opponents.  These guys that count xGF and xGA metrics, are they standardized NHL beancounters?   

Edited 12 hours ago by Pimlach

[JohnC]

17 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

@Thorner, I give this thumbs downs, not because of you, but because of the message from Go Bills.  The Sabres are playing better and they are getting great goaltending - hence the 5-1. 

Im not say they are good either, they are a work in progress, but they deserved to win the games they won. 

This XGF, HDCF, FF% analytic stuff is fine buts it’s not everything.  One game out of the 5 wins was because Reimer stood on his head.  Other than that they outplayed their opponents.  These guys that count xGF and xGA metrics, are they standardized NHL beancounters?   

What I'm seeing is not matching up with the analytics that many here are citing. As an example, I do see an uptick in Quinn's recent play since the benching due to being late for a team meeting. Some posters here are suggesting otherwise, most notably @mjd1001.  And it should be noted that in the recent games many of them/victories were against good teams and teams vying for playoff spots. While I'm not going to over interpret the recent preponderance of wins, I will draw some cautious encouragement from this end of season play.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, JohnC said:

What I'm seeing is not matching up with the analytics that many here are citing. As an example, I do see an uptick in Quinn's recent play since the benching due to being late for a team meeting. Some posters here are suggesting otherwise, most notably @mjd1001.  And it should be noted that in the recent games many of them/victories were against good teams and teams vying for playoff spots. While I'm not going to over interpret the recent preponderance of wins, I will draw some cautious encouragement from this end of season play.

I'm not sure this is allowed, but I commend the effort. There is talent on the team, and just fixating on the doom spiral isn't any better than KA hoping against hope that the young core will magically mature into a well-constructed roster.

I'm not spending hours contemplating what I have no control over, but my rough sense is they thought they were going to drive play with puck moving defense, with Dahlin, Power, and Byram being the strength of the team. This now appears a risible hope, and if there was another GM in place, I'd expect at least one of Power or Byram to be part of a package to bring in a strong, defense first top 4 D. 

Do that, and bring in a steady, competent goalie, and you might at least plausibly entertain a better future.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

What I'm seeing is not matching up with the analytics that many here are citing.

I want to support you on this. 
 

In his recent run, Reimer has 29 goals against and 5 goals saved above expected good for 12th out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s pretty good.

Most recently, UPL has 41 goals against and -10 goals saved above expected good for 71st out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s really bad.

The Sabres should not put too much stock into their players “learning how to win” during these late meaningless games when the only thing that’s really changed is that their goalie is playing well. 

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I want to support you on this. 
 

In his recent run, Reimer has 29 goals against and 5 goals saved above expected good for 12th out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s pretty good.

Most recently, UPL has 41 goals against and -10 goals saved above expected good for 71st out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s really bad.

The Sabres should not put too much stock into their players “learning how to win” during these late meaningless games when the only thing that’s really changed is that their goalie is playing well. 

I have said it numerous times that I'm not going to over-interpret what our recent good record means. However, that doesn't mean that these games aren't meaningful for the opposing teams. During this short positive segment we have beaten upper echelon teams and teams vying for a playoff spot. So let's not suggest that other teams are folding because they are playing an out of contention team. 

The point is often made that the Sabres are winning primarily because of the recent good of Reimer. Well hallelujah, that's exactly what I and others have pointed out. Getting good goalie play uplifts for the team. That's what I and other have noted needs to be addressed in the offseason i.e. the goalie position. 

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm not sure this is allowed, but I commend the effort. There is talent on the team, and just fixating on the doom spiral isn't any better than KA hoping against hope that the young core will magically mature into a well-constructed roster.

I'm not spending hours contemplating what I have no control over, but my rough sense is they thought they were going to drive play with puck moving defense, with Dahlin, Power, and Byram being the strength of the team. This now appears a risible hope, and if there was another GM in place, I'd expect at least one of Power or Byram to be part of a package to bring in a strong, defense first top 4 D. 

Do that, and bring in a steady, competent goalie, and you might at least plausibly entertain a better future.

As you point out, and has often been noted by many, there is a need to add a quality rugged defensive blueliner to get a better mix on that unit. Does that mean that Byram should be moved? Not necessarily, but I'm open to it. As far as moving Power, I'm adamantly opposed to dealing him off. End of the discussion! Can enough roster adjustment being made this offseason to put this team back into the relevancy category? Maybe. My hesitancy is based on what I believe to be the caliber of our GM. Sad to say.  

[Archie Lee]

9 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I want to support you on this. 
 

In his recent run, Reimer has 29 goals against and 5 goals saved above expected good for 12th out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s pretty good.

Most recently, UPL has 41 goals against and -10 goals saved above expected good for 71st out of 72 qualifying goaltenders. That’s really bad.

The Sabres should not put too much stock into their players “learning how to win” during these late meaningless games when the only thing that’s really changed is that their goalie is playing well. 

It’s not just goaltending. In the 13 games we played since the deadline, we are scoring on a 300 goal per 82 game pace. That’s back to where we were two seasons ago. On average in the last 5 full NHL seasons, two teams do that per year. 

During the 13 game losing streak, we scored at a 175 goal pace. We would not have gone 0-10-3 if we had been scoring at a 300 goal pace then. It isn’t just goaltending. Of course, there is no reason to think the post trade deadline scoring pace is sustainable. 

[LGR4GM]

I firmly believe this board as delved more greedily and more deeply into the Sabres issues and remedies than the Sabres own front office has. 

[Believer]

10 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

if there was another GM in place, I'd expect at least one of Power or Byram to be part of a package to bring in a strong, defense first top 4 D. 

Agree. Neither will ever be a strong top 4 D.

Doesn’t mean both couldn’t contribute as bottom 4 D.

Just means the Sabres need stronger and more physical top 4 D.

Trading one or both in a package to get the top 4 D we covet makes great sense to me. 

Also agree unlikely KA has the ability to do it.

[DarthEbriate]

Oh my. I forgot, I forgot.  With the win...

Grand Ruff: The Senators will no longer be of any concern to us. I've just overseen the destruction of their team permanently... this season. The last remnants of their roster and Cozens have been swept away.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

It’s not just goaltending. In the 13 games we played since the deadline, we are scoring on a 300 goal per 82 game pace. That’s back to where we were two seasons ago. On average in the last 5 full NHL seasons, two teams do that per year. 

During the 13 game losing streak, we scored at a 175 goal pace. We would not have gone 0-10-3 if we had been scoring at a 300 goal pace then. It isn’t just goaltending. Of course, there is no reason to think the post trade deadline scoring pace is sustainable. 

You’re right, it’s both. In this five wins in six game run, the Sabres PDO (shooting percentage plus save percentage) is third in NHL in that span, 1.090. That came from a Sabre Report tweet. 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I firmly believe this board as delved more greedily and more deeply into the Sabres issues and remedies than the Sabres own front office has. 

You know what they awoke in the darkness