GDT: Sabres @ Senators, April 1, 2025 - 7:00PM, MSG 📺, WGR550 📻 🎙

[dudacek]

The issue with the forwards is not about the talent, it’s about the composition.

It’s not about the ceilings of Kulich, Benson and Quinn, it’s about having all of them in your top 6 at this point in their careers at the same time.

Its about applying the same thought process behind the McLeod trade to this roster a few more times. Fingers crossed Norris qualifies.

Its the Herb Brooks thing: I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the right players.

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This is not correct. He has been the best goal scorer which is not the same as best overall player. That distinction would fall to Benson. 

Kulich is running a -5.1 xGF and is primarily using his excellent shot while being, mediocre defensively. He scores at 1.1gp/60 and 1.6pt/60

Benson is running a +1.5xGF and is primarily being shuffled all over the lineup and into different roles while being above average defensively. He scores at .6gp/60 and 1.5pt/60.

So you get less goals but about the same offense with Benson while getting better overall play driving metrics. You are drastically overrating Kulich based on his great shot while missing out on his otherwise "just ok" play outside of that shot. 

That said, both Benson and Kulich will have to be better in all facets of the game. 

Of course its correct, no idea why you are making this more complicated than I meant it to be, as I was referring to him being the better scorer, which in part leads me to him being the better player (he is playing with better linemates, but the matchups he is facing are a lot worse than what Benson is facing).

Kulich has 15 goals in 54 games and is shooting over 12%

Benson has 10 goals in 67 games and is shooting in the single digits.

This year Kulich is the better goal scorer, and from what I see a player contributing to wins overall better than Benson.

 

Edited yesterday at 05:36 PM by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The issue with the forwards is not about the talent, it’s about the composition.

It’s not about the ceilings of Kulich, Benson and Quinn, it’s about having all of them in your top 6 at this point in their careers at the same time.

Its about applying the same thought process behind the McLeod trade to this roster a few more times. Fingers crossed Norris qualifies.

Its the Herb Brooks thing: I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the right players.

But they wouldn't be to start next season. Tage, Peterka, Tuch, Zucker, McLeod... one of those guys gets into the top 6 and the other 2 end up on your 3rd line until injuries happen. I agree we need another top 6 forward but it has more to do with depth than anything. 

Just now, mjd1001 said:

Of course its correct, no idea why you are making this more complicated than I meant it to be.

Kulich has 15 goals in 54 games and is shooting over 12%

Benson has 10 goals in 67 games and is shooting in the single digits.

This year Kulich is the better goal scorer.

 

That is not what you said. "But this year, among all the guys you listed (Even Cozens) I think he has clearly been the best overall player to me."

He has not been the best overall player, best goal scorer, yes. Best overall, no. 

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But they wouldn't be to start next season. Tage, Peterka, Tuch, Zucker, McLeod... one of those guys gets into the top 6 and the other 2 end up on your 3rd line until injuries happen. I agree we need another top 6 forward but it has more to do with depth than anything. 

That is not what you said. "But this year, among all the guys you listed (Even Cozens) I think he has clearly been the best overall player to me."

He has not been the best overall player, best goal scorer, yes. Best overall, no. 

As i explained in the above post, I do think he has been a better player than Benson.  And I think expected goals can be useful, but that is not the end-all-be-all of stats to show it.  His possession numbers may not be as good, but his production is much better, and at this point in their careers, they still have a chance to 'learn' the overall game, but I want to see production.

Benson's underlying metrics are pretty good, maybe really good for someone his age and the team he is on. I just see Kulich making plays and scoring goals to actively help this team win. I need to see more of that from Benson.

Edited yesterday at 05:40 PM by mjd1001

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The issue with the forwards is not about the talent, it’s about the composition.

It’s not about the ceilings of Kulich, Benson and Quinn, it’s about having all of them in your top 6 at this point in their careers at the same time.

Its about applying the same thought process behind the McLeod trade to this roster a few more times. Fingers crossed Norris qualifies.

Its the Herb Brooks thing: I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the right players.

I'm not advocating for all the highlighted players to be on the top two lines. Benson may be more suitable as a third line player. Also, there is nothing wrong with having a high functioning third line with the ability of those players to move up the lines when the inevitable injuries happen. I have also advocated for the need to add another established second-line player to this roster. 

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

As i explained in the above post, I do think he has been a better player than Benson.  And I think expected goals can be useful, but that is not the end-all-be-all of stats to show it.  His possession numbers may not be as good, but his production is much better, and at this point in their careers, they still have a chance to 'learn' the overall game, but I want to see production.

No it isn't. His goal scorer is much better. Their production is about the exact same per 60mins of ice time. 1.6 Kulich and 1.5 Benson. 

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Kulich has 15 goals in 54 games and is shooting over 12%

Benson has 10 goals in 67 games and is shooting in the single digits.

Also I am calling this out for being deliberately misleading and the type of ***** we shouldn't do. 

"Is shooting single digits" acting like it is some type of massive gap and OMG! when in reality if you had used the actual numbers...

Kulich: 12.0%... not over, at. And he only has 14goals from everywhere I have looked so I think you accidently gave him an extra one.

Benson: 9.7%

They are 2.3% different in their sh% and you deliberately made it sound like a vast gulf. It was lazy and I dislike the subterfuge. It is a 2.7 goal difference for Kulich if he shot at Benson's level. 

Edited yesterday at 05:47 PM by LGR4GM

[SwampD]

3 hours ago, inkman said:

Alpert is garbage.  Please fire him and his perfectly quaffed hair. 

Shut your mouth.

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I'm not advocating for all the highlighted players to be on the top two lines. Benson may be more suitable as a third line player. Also, there is nothing wrong with having a high functioning third line with the ability of those players to move up the lines when the inevitable injuries happen. I have also advocated for the need to add another established second-line player to this roster. 

 

18 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

But they wouldn't be to start next season. Tage, Peterka, Tuch, Zucker, McLeod... one of those guys gets into the top 6 and the other 2 end up on your 3rd line until injuries happen. I agree we need another top 6 forward but it has more to do with depth than anything. 

Does everyone think we can count on Zucker and McLeod to produce like 2nd-liners next year?

On Norris and Greenway to play 70-plus games?

On at least 1 of Quinn/Benson/Kulich to graduate to the 50-point-and-a-plus-player plateau?

All at the same time?

Substitute a 60-point 2C Cozens for Norris and isn’t that pretty much what Adams did this year?

[Thorner]

6 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I don't have a problem with 65-point Tuch.  .8 PPG from a middle six player?  Yes please.

No one does. The point is you address the roster based on the full impressions of the player not the streak. The point of my post wasn’t that Tuch’s production the following year wasn’t good. 

[mjd1001]

36 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

No it isn't. His goal scorer is much better. Their production is about the exact same per 60mins of ice time. 1.6 Kulich and 1.5 Benson. 

Yes it is. Goal scoring to me is production.  Assists are secondary to goals, and secondary assists are often times 'statistical noise'.

 

33 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Also I am calling this out for being deliberately misleading and the type of ***** we shouldn't do. 

"Is shooting single digits" acting like it is some type of massive gap and OMG! when in reality if you had used the actual numbers...

Kulich: 12.0%... not over, at. And he only has 14goals from everywhere I have looked so I think you accidently gave him an extra one.

Benson: 9.7%

They are 2.3% different in their sh% and you deliberately made it sound like a vast gulf. It was lazy and I dislike the subterfuge. It is a 2.7 goal difference for Kulich if he shot at Benson's level. 

12.0 to 9.7% over a season, is a sizable difference to me.

You want to carry the water for Benson and be a schill for his gameplay fine. I'm not saying he is bad.

Just don't go and tell me what the 'truths' are of who is better or more productive based on YOUR definition of it.  In no world of mine is the goals Benson has equal to the 'production' of Kulich.  Not even mentioning the fact that Kulich has a few multi-goal games and/or game winners. Meaning I have some memory of some of his goals being important with respect to winning games.  I don't have that with Benson yet.

Edited yesterday at 06:17 PM by mjd1001

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think you missed the part where I said you can not rely on 1 player to make or break your season  

 

No, I led off with “and” because it was a supplement to your post not in disagreement. Thought that would be caught 

6 minutes ago, Thorner said:

No one does. The point is you address the roster based on the full impressions of the player not the streak. The point of my post wasn’t that Tuch’s production the following year wasn’t good. 

Is it me? Am I ridiculously unclear all too often? 

[Thorner]

4 hours ago, SwampD said:

There is nothing to take away from these games other than the immediate satisfaction of having won the individual game we watched. Period.

Anyone making assessments for next year really need to take a step back. Imo.

Until Quinn made that play behind the net on the Dahlin goal, I have questioned whether his recent surge was real or yet another artifact of meaningless late season games. I really hope that that type of play continues, but his defense on Ottawa’s first goal was just awful. That goal was on him.

 

 

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

This is something that the board still hasn’t quite wrapped its collective head around.

None of Quinn, Cozens, Benson and Kulich performed like good top 9 performers this year or provided good value for their role. I know I’ll get pushback on this, but generally speaking, their contributions have been roughly on a tier with those of Peyton Krebs. Look at the numbers.

We’ve replaced one of them.

Sure they’re young enough to get better, but how many of them, and by how much?

Are you willing to take that bet? Again?

After this year, I can’t fathom the number of Sabrespacers who seem OK with our forwards.

 

It’s the whole online world lol 

[LGR4GM]

20 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Yes it is. Goal scoring to me is production.  Assists are secondary to goals, and secondary assists are often times 'statistical noise'.

 

12.0 to 9.7% over a season, is a sizable difference to me.

You want to carry the water for Benson and be a schill for his gameplay fine. I'm not saying he is bad.

Just don't go and tell me what the 'truths' are of who is better or more productive based on YOUR definition of it.  In no world of mine is the goals Benson has equal to the 'production' of Kulich.  Not even mentioning the fact that Kulich has a few multi-goal games and/or game winners. Meaning I have some memory of some of his goals being important with respect to winning games.  I don't have that with Benson yet.

Why didn't use the actual numbers? Why did you make it sound vastly different? Don't call me a schill when you deliberately obfuscated the numbers in order to attempt at strengthening your point. 

Zach Benson has .7 primary assists per 60 compared to .2 2nd assists. Kulich is .3 and .2 in the same categories all while playing with better linemates much of the year. Lets take out 2nd assists. That would put Kulich at 1.4pts/60 and Benson at 1.3pts/60. 

Kulich's most TOI: Thompson and Peterka at 137 and Thompson and Benson at 58

Benson's most TOI: Krebs and Quinn at 87 and Cozens and Quinn at 63.. followed closely by Kulich and Thompson

Kulich has 3 gwg to Benson's 0. I didn't look at all the GWG to see if Benson had any fun assists in there. 

FTR, I don't think Benson is worlds better than Kulich. Kulich could 100% end up the better player long term. 

Edited yesterday at 06:32 PM by LGR4GM

[Thorner]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The issue with the forwards is not about the talent, it’s about the composition.

It’s not about the ceilings of Kulich, Benson and Quinn, it’s about having all of them in your top 6 at this point in their careers at the same time.

Its about applying the same thought process behind the McLeod trade to this roster a few more times. Fingers crossed Norris qualifies.

Its the Herb Brooks thing: I’m not looking for the best players, I’m looking for the right players.

It’s also about consciously raising the bar. The fascination with things being “ok” is not just odd it actively prevents the goals from being achieved. Are we not tired of rosters that “could” make it? Make one that “could” finish top 10: so when we fall short inevitably due to unforeseen circumstances that arise every year, we still make the playoffs 

is the goal to make the playoffs, or give us a chance to make the playoffs? The UTTER lack of urgency blows my mind. It’s like with goalies where no one seems to think it’s ok to expect them to make some saves that are “above the line”. There’s no rule your goalie just has to be average and the rest of the team has to pick up the slack. Any component of the roster can be improved to help facilitate a playoff berth 

we were “no stone unturned” two years ago.

the sabres are like 15th in ES differential , not first. It’s *conceivably* good enough to be a playoff team. We aren’t close to maxed out there lol. A goal added is still as valuable as one prevented: we aren’t close to a situation where we’d “lose value” from having too many scorers 

it’s so fascinating - people will argue BPA for the draft regardless of composition but can’t envision the roster in the same terms. *the sabres are not close to* being at the critical mass, anywhere 

Edited yesterday at 06:32 PM by Thorner

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

Does everyone think we can count on Zucker and McLeod to produce like 2nd-liners next year?

On Norris and Greenway to play 70-plus games?

On at least 1 of Quinn/Benson/Kulich to graduate to the 50-point-and-a-plus-player plateau?

All at the same time?

Substitute a 60-point 2C Cozens for Norris and isn’t that pretty much what Adams did this year?

There is no question that Adams made some premature assumptions about his players entering the season, mostly young players, that didn't materialize. That's why this season didn't come close to meeting our expectations. Given that disappointment, that doesn't mean that Quinn/Benso/Kulich/JJP/Power shouldn't be better players next year. I expect that to happen but also not assuming it. 

As far as Zucker and McLeod producing like 2nd lines, from a production standpoint I can't say definitely. However, what I can say about both player is that both of them will provide experience, adequate production and good examples to the younger players. I'm not going to complain if they become solid third line players. 

With respect to the injury factor for injury prone players such as Greenway and Norris that's an unavoidable fact of life in sports for all teams. No team is immune from that issue. It seems to me that this team is starting to build up with more depth on the roster and within the system. There are no guarantees and never will be. It's the nature of the physical business.

The Sabres wil not be a serious Cup contending team next year. I'm not delusional. But my expectation is that they should be a playoff qualifying team if our GM responds more wisely in his tasks than he has done in the past. (As you should well know, I'm not a fan of KA.) The owner has the say here. So you deal with what you got and go on whether you like it or not.  

 

[LGR4GM]

3 minutes ago, Thorner said:

It’s also about consciously raising the bar. The fascination with things being “ok” is not just odd it actively prevents the goals from being achieved. Are we not tired of rosters that “could” make it? Make one that “could” finish top 10: so when we fall short inevitably due to unforeseen circumstances that arise every year, we still make the playoffs 

is the goal to make the playoffs, or give us a chance to make the playoffs? The UTTER lack of urgency blows my mind. It’s like with goalies where no one seems to think it’s ok to expect them to make some saves that are “above the line”. There’s no rule your goalie just has to be average and the rest of the team has to pick up the slack. Any component of the roster can be improved to help facilitate a playoff berth 

we were “no stone unturned” two years ago.

the sabres are like 15th in ES differential , not first. It’s *conceivably* good enough to be a playoff team. We aren’t close to maxed out there lol. A goal added is still as valuable as one prevented: we aren’t close to a situation where we’d “lose value” from having too many scorers 

This bothers me a ton. The Sabres mantra is just "we should sneak into the playoffs" as opposed to "let's win the GD league"

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why didn't use the actual numbers? Why did you make it sound vastly different? Don't call me a schill when you deliberately obfuscated the numbers in order to attempt at strengthening your point. 

Zach Benson has .7 primary assists per 60 compared to .2 2nd assists. Kulich is .3 and .2 in the same categories all while playing with better linemates much of the year. Lets take out 2nd assists. That would put Kulich at 1.4pts/60 and Benson at 1.3pts/60. 

Kulich's most TOI: Thompson and Peterka at 137 and Thompson and Benson at 58

Benson's most TOI: Krebs and Quinn at 87 and Cozens and Quinn at 63.. followed closely by Kulich and Thompson

Kulich has 3 gwg to Benson's 0. I didn't look at all the GWG to see if Benson had any fun assists in there. 

Deliberatley obfuscated the numbers? Really, c'mon now, I NEVER type in a bad number unless its by mistake. I typed 15 goals instead of 14 goals, ands that is the point you are going to make? that is deliberately obvuscating the numbers? Thats a joke.  Its called a MISTAKE and it was by one goal and STILL did not change the results of my argument.

You want to keep telling me I'm wrong, or saying ONE mistake I made by ONE goal is DELIBERATELY OBFUSCATING the numbers? You bet I'll call you a schill for your argument and probably a lot more.

You throwing out numbers that you choose does not make you correct.  Its also a joke that since I value different numbers, you come at me and just say what I say is "incorrect".  

And the teammate argument?  I can say, and somewhat believe that the 3rd line is the EASIEST line to play on.  Kulich playing with Tage usually means he is playing against the other teams best shutdown guys.  The lines Benson is on...usually means he is NOT given the 4th line assignment of shutting down the opposing teams top line, but neither is he facing the other teams top shut down guys.

Again, You may disagree with me thats fine. But its a bit juvenile coming back at someone and jumping all over a 1 goal error or saying its incorrect or wrong because I am judging people on using different metrics than you.  I'm ALL for using advanced stats to support an argument, but I never use them as the end-all-be-all of winning my argument, apparently you do.  Whatever I guess. 

You think Benson is a better player right now. I think Kulich is. Fine, just stop escalating your rhetoric at me about it...we disagree, get over it.

Edited yesterday at 06:43 PM by mjd1001

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This bothers me a ton. The Sabres mantra is just "we should sneak into the playoffs" as opposed to "let's win the GD league"

It’s one of those things I SO would love to discuss with them in a quiet office with no windows and distractions, in a candid manner, face to face. I don’t quite understand and can’t wrap my mind around the disconnect. 

The stated mantra IS in fact “we don’t want to just be a playoff team, we want to be a cup contender”. But, to your point, they build the rosters to the tune of only just scratching a playoff berth in the now, if things go right 

I guess that’s it? They somehow view the prioritization of *ensuring* a playoff berth in the now as working in opposition to their long term contender goal 

i frequently argue the opposite: you have to lay the first brick. You stack contendership upon the shoulders of playoff bricks you’ve laid. Upon that respectability

its two fold: you’ve built a playoff roster (what a concept!), AND, the franchise surely had an easier time attracting players which facilitates the long term goal 

ie Adams is full of ***** 

He should know the attracting players concern would dissipate with respectability.  It’s not chicken and egg: we don’t need a cup team to attract players. We just need to be respectable 

[dudacek]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

This bothers me a ton. The Sabres mantra is just "we should sneak into the playoffs" as opposed to "let's win the GD league"

So much this.

What is fundamentally wrong with building a roster next year that should have no room for Jiri Kulich?

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, dudacek said:

So much this.

What is fundamentally wrong with building a roster next year that should have no room for Jiri Kulich?

But with Kulich we *might* make it - it’s not an absurd likelihood. If we can give ourselves a chance to make it while still making sure we are working towards the long term goal of developing a cup contender, that’s gotta be the best of both worlds 

Give the kid a shot, I say 

[ska-T Palmtown]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This is why Cozens isn't a good hockey player:

 

My absolute favorite part, and why I am so glad he will be back next year is Zucker standing on the bench with both arms raised looking happy AF. That man cares about the game and cares about his 'mates. He is always genuinely happy when the puck is the back of the opposing team's net. Good on him.

 

7 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Definitely gave him an opportunity and he's quickly growing into it.  I really think when the Sabres are competitive again, he might not be a "core piece" as such but will be a significant contributor.  If his snipe continues to improve he might actually be.... good?

I think Krebs would be solid 3rd/4th line addition to many of the playoff teams out there. He is the epitome (ok, maybe a little hyperbole) of the "effort guy" that inevitably ends up making some sort of key play for a real contender each year. He has been misused and surrounded by borderline garbage for much of his time in blue and gold. This is the reason we are generally left to lament how players not named Cozens go on to do better after the Sabres. They are decent players being played too high by Buffalo, but excel (mostly) when placed at that appropriate level with a competent hockey organization.

@Thorner - I had a quote, but there was so much back and forth on it, I just decided to start "fresh". RE: the forward group. My perspective is that the Sabres score enough goals ... they are 7th overall in GF (give or take a game or two in hand, etc). So no, I don't think they need more goal-scoring forwards. But seeing as how they have given up the 5th most GA - they need to improve team defense. And since there are THREE forwards and only TWO defensemen, my simpleton math leads me to believe that 60% of the players that should be playing "defense" are forwards. So, my opinion is that they need to address the forward group with more players like McLeod. Fast, responsible, and hungry. The forward group, overall, is good at scoring goals and not really very good at playing hockey.

[Archie Lee]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So much this.

What is fundamentally wrong with building a roster next year that should have no room for Jiri Kulich?

Exactly.  Or maybe Kulich is the piece that brings you the better player.  

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

When they play well...it doesn't surprise me. Its been the same issues (mostly) the entire year.

Thompson, Tuch, and Dahlin scored.  There are your 3 best players. They are all currently playing and don't look to be playing hurt. That is key #1.

You got decent-to-good goaltending.  You don't need a Vezina winner behind this team to make the playoffs, just decent-to-good. That is key #2.

A game by one single player by Cozens can lose a team a game, and the Sabres were fighting that most of the year with him here.  On the Tuch Goal, Cozens was right there, He was in position to either take out Tuch or clear the puck, he did neither, he kinda just stood there not knowing what to do or which way to look. In a big Scrum behind the Sabres net, Cozens skated the other way. And of course, the awful giveaway right onto Krebs stick for the goal.  Cozens had games like that for the Sabres quite a bit. You removed that player from your roster. (As much as people think Quinn turned the corner with his scoring lately, I am not convinced.  I still think he is invisible unless someone puts the puck on his stick for him, and he's almost as bad as Cozens without the puck)

Defense.  Its not as bad as it looks in front of the 'bad UPL', but still needs improvement.  Dahlin is fine. You would LIKE one more very, very good D-man. They don't have it yet.  Do you wait/can Power develop into it? Maybe, but hesnot here yet.  Is it Bryam? I don't think so. The more I watch Byram, the more I get the vibes of a "below average overall D-man who happens to skate well but that's it".

IF Tage and Tuch and Dahlin are healthy, and IF you get above average goaltending, and by removing  the forwards from this team that hurts you (Cozens and possibly Quinn), this Can be a playoff team.  The problem is, those are a lot of "IFs". You can't rely on all of them happening all the time.  

The win feels great after a pretty good week or two. I'm sure things will be different around here after the next 2 game losing streak. (Actually, kidding, the next time they lose a single game by 2+ goals things will be a lot different around here)

I'm not going to buy into the "if' scenarios. A lot of things can go wrong fast too. Things just are what they are. 

What I will say though is it is way past time for Adams (presumably) to stop having faith in what's happening and stop waiting for more prospects to develop and make the moves now needed to get over the hump. He should have got on this when we missed by 1 point before and he definitely should have gotten on this when they hired Ruff and started this season but if he doesn't make the big necessary moves now he's just shooting the whole thing in the foot. 

This team, as is, looking pretty good, so there's your immediate trade chip. TRADE NORRIS. TRADE THE TOP PICK. get that veteran goalie and that top 4 defensive D man. We have the assets to get it done. GET IT DONE.