What is Ryan McLeod worth to you?

[shrader]

23 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And yet you didn't feel this way about Cozens. McLeod isn't a 4th line player, no matter how you spin it or the production you ignore. 

I just wish I knew what people’s expectations were at this point. Is it a point a game or bust? I wish I could remember who it was years ago who thee out the “if you take away the games where Drew Stafford scores, he never scores” argument. We’re starting to approach that. 

[SABRES 0311]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

I just wish I knew what people’s expectations were at this point. Is it a point a game or bust? I wish I could remember who it was years ago who thee out the “if you take away the games where Drew Stafford scores, he never scores” argument. We’re starting to approach that. 

2C needs to put up 20g and 35-40a

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

And yet you didn't feel this way about Cozens. McLeod isn't a 4th line player, no matter how you spin it or the production you ignore. 

I did.  I felt Cozens should have traded over the summer and I criticized the contract the day it was signed because of the shooting %. 

[mjd1001]

12 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

2C needs to put up 20g and 35-40a

You are saying 20G and 55-60 points. That isn't just what most 2nd line centers/players get around the league.  One guy who did a lot of research came up with 2nd line guys getting no more than 50 points over a full 82 game season..and if an average guy misses a handful of games, that total is under 50:  https://www.arcticicehockey.com/review-of-production-based-on-time-on-ice/.  The 2nd line in his study gets .61 points per game (McLeod is currently at .64) Over the season so far, Mcleod is averaging about 20 seconds less per game ice time compared to a typical 2nd liner (mostly due to his reduced ice time earlier in the season), so if you break that down to points per 60 minutes, his numbers are even more ahead of the league average guy (slightly).

As for the conversation of 2nd line vs 3rd line....Your typical 3rd line forward/Center across the league averages about 35 points over a full 82 game season. McLeod is going to be way ahead of that.

No reference I can site but to add to it some may remember between games last year on HNIC they talked about this (near the trade deadline) and said that over the last few years the average goal total of a 2nd line player was just under 20 goals.

A quick search on the internet shows (with references sited) that typical 2nd line players get from 40-55 points total in a full season, but that some of them who are better defensively maintain 2nd line minutes with less points than that. (see screenshot below).

So, the average team in the NHL seems to have 2nd line players that get about 20 goals and 20-25 assists.  If McLeod gives you that, and is above average defensively, then that is one position you are at or better than league average at.

A little somewhat-scientific research.  I looked at last year (the last full season) and looked at the top 4 teams in the regular season (obviously all playoff teams) and wanted to see what their 4th,5th, and 6th best forwards scored on average:

-Rangers (Presidents trophy last year): averaged 22 goals (with a good number of PP minutes for those guys)

-Dallas (2nd overall last year): averaged 25.6 goals (again, A LOT of PP time and PP goals)

-Carolina (3rd overall): averaged 19 goals 

-Winnipeg (4th overall) averaged 19.6 goals

Those are the top 4 teams last year....the league average across the entire league for the 2nd line guys last year was just under 20 goals.

So again, 18-20 goals and 24-25 assists, last year, was close to both the league average and median for those 2nd line guys.

McLeod looks to have better offensive numbers than that this year. He would be an 'above average' 2nd line guy in terms or production this year. Even if he regresses a little, he is still in 2nd line territory. 

I realize this is a bit non-scientific, but lets look at this year.  Just to keep things simple, there are 32 teams and 3 spots on each line. So scoring guys #1-96 are first line guys. Guys 97-192 in scoring are 2nd line guys. The middle/median of that 2nd line group this year in goals is currently 16 goals.  The median in terms of points is 38 total points. Right now McLeod is at 17 goals (1 above the median of the leaders in guys 97-160) and 42 points (4 above the median in that group), and he is doing that with less average ice time/opportunities.   I would submit as my personal opinion he is pretty darn good defensively away from the puck (one of the better forwards on the Sabres)...so again, he can regress a little bit from this years level and still be a pretty good 2c.

So what is my point with all of the above?  That a 2C for a typical team, and a typical team often is good enough to make the playoffs, doesn't need to put up 20 goals. They can be in the 15-20 goal range (the lower end if they are good defensively) and if you get those 15-20 goals, most 2nd line (certainly the average/median) guys are NOT even reaching 30 assists, let alone 35-40.

Of course teams all would want a 2nd line guy that gives you a guaranteed 20 goals and 55-60 points. But the reality is that many teams, many playoff teams have 2nd line players and 2nd line centers that produce less than that.

 

 

Edited 15 hours ago by mjd1001

[Doohicksie]

10 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’d give up Matt Savoie

[PerreaultForever]

This is 2 years old so give it an inflationary bump and a rising cap bump but there's where all your numbers should be for a balanced roster. 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/4583624/2023/06/06/nhl-free-agency-contract-guide/

So, McLeod, who is a 3C not a 2C regardless of whatever it is the Sabres think they're doing should be making 3-4 million and the 4 is really generous. So no palm trees and taxes 4x4 seems right. 

If he gets any sort of no move clause it should be one of the backwards ones. He can have full NMC in the first year, limited in the next two and no protection in year 4. Given where and what we are all contracts should avoid trade protection as much as possible and definitely in the last year(s).  

[dudacek]

43 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

You are saying 20G and 55-60 points. That isn't just what most 2nd line centers/players get around the league.  One guy who did a lot of research came up with 2nd line guys getting no more than 50 points over a full 82 game season..and if an average guy misses a handful of games, that total is under 50:  https://www.arcticicehockey.com/review-of-production-based-on-time-on-ice/.  The 2nd line in his study gets .61 points per game (McLeod is currently at .64) Over the season so far, Mcleod is averaging about 20 seconds less per game ice time compared to a typical 2nd liner (mostly due to his reduced ice time earlier in the season), so if you break that down to points per 60 minutes, his numbers are even more ahead of the league average guy.

Your typical 3rd line forward/Center across the league averages about 35 points over a full 82 game season. McLeod is going to be way ahead of that.

No reference I can site but to add to it some may remember between games last year on HNIC they talked about this (near the trade deadline) and said that over the last few years the average goal total of a 2nd line player was just under 20 goals.

A quick search on the internet shows (with references sited) that typical 2nd line players get from 40-55 points total in a full season, but that some of them who are better defensively maintain 2nd line minutes with less points than that. (see screenshot below).

So, the average team in the NHL seems to have 2nd line players that get about 20 goals and 20-25 assists.  If McLeod gives you that, and is above average defensively, then that is one position you are at or better than league average at.

A little somewhat-scientific research.  I looked at last year (the last full season) and looked at the top 4 teams in the regular season (obviously all playoff teams) and wanted to see what their 4th,5th, and 6th best forwards scored on average:

-Rangers (Presidents trophy last year): averaged 22 goals (with a good number of PP minutes for those guys)

-Dallas (2nd overall last year): averaged 25.6 goals (again, A LOT of PP time and PP goals)

-Carolina (3rd overall): averaged 19 goals 

-Winnipeg (4th overall) averaged 19.6 goals

Those are the top 4 teams last year....the league average across the entire league for the 2nd line guys last year was just under 20 goals.

So again, 18-20 goals and 24-25 assists, last year, was close to both the league average and median for those 2nd line guys.

McLeod looks to have better offensive numbers than that this year. He would be an 'above average' 2nd line guy in terms or production this year. Even if he regresses a little, he is still in 2nd line territory. 

I realize this is a bit non-scientific, but lets look at this year.  Just to keep things simple, there are 32 teams and 3 spots on each line. So scoring guys #1-96 are first line guys. Guys 97-192 in scoring are 2nd line guys. The middle/median of that 2nd line group this year in goals is currently 16 goals.  The median in terms of points is 38 total points. Right now McLeod is at 17 goals (1 above the median of the leaders in guys 97-160) and 42 points (4 above the median in that group), and he is doing that with less average ice time/opportunities.   I would submit as my personal opinion he is pretty darn good defensively away from the puck (one of the better forwards on the Sabres)...so again, he can regress a little bit from this years level and still be a pretty good 2c.

So what is my point with all of the above?  That a 2C for a typical team, and a typical team often is good enough to make the playoffs, doesn't need to put up 20 goals. They can be in the 15-20 goal range (the lower end if they are good defensively) and if you get those 15-20 goals, most 2nd line (certainly the average/median) guys are NOT even reaching 30 assists, let alone 35-40.

Of course teams all would want a 2nd line guy that gives you a guaranteed 20 goals and 55-60 points. But the reality is that many teams, many playoff teams have 2nd line players and 2nd line centers that produce less than that.

 

 

 

Been there. Done all that research, but you're fighting a losing battle.

My favourite is "Alex Tuch is a 3rd-liner on a good team." Alex Tuch is the 10th-highest scoring Right Wing in the NHL over the past 3 seasons.

Stanley Cup champion Florida's 7, 8, 9 forwards in scoring last year got 35, 27 and 15 points (Lundell, Luostarinen and Cousins) respectively.

None of that matters.

People think it's still a 21-team league and Stanley Cup winners have 3 20-goal scorers on their 3rd line.

Edited yesterday at 03:49 AM by dudacek

[SABRES 0311]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

You are saying 20G and 55-60 points. That isn't just what most 2nd line centers/players get around the league.  One guy who did a lot of research came up with 2nd line guys getting no more than 50 points over a full 82 game season..and if an average guy misses a handful of games, that total is under 50:  https://www.arcticicehockey.com/review-of-production-based-on-time-on-ice/.  The 2nd line in his study gets .61 points per game (McLeod is currently at .64) Over the season so far, Mcleod is averaging about 20 seconds less per game ice time compared to a typical 2nd liner (mostly due to his reduced ice time earlier in the season), so if you break that down to points per 60 minutes, his numbers are even more ahead of the league average guy.

Your typical 3rd line forward/Center across the league averages about 35 points over a full 82 game season. McLeod is going to be way ahead of that.

No reference I can site but to add to it some may remember between games last year on HNIC they talked about this (near the trade deadline) and said that over the last few years the average goal total of a 2nd line player was just under 20 goals.

A quick search on the internet shows (with references sited) that typical 2nd line players get from 40-55 points total in a full season, but that some of them who are better defensively maintain 2nd line minutes with less points than that. (see screenshot below).

So, the average team in the NHL seems to have 2nd line players that get about 20 goals and 20-25 assists.  If McLeod gives you that, and is above average defensively, then that is one position you are at or better than league average at.

A little somewhat-scientific research.  I looked at last year (the last full season) and looked at the top 4 teams in the regular season (obviously all playoff teams) and wanted to see what their 4th,5th, and 6th best forwards scored on average:

-Rangers (Presidents trophy last year): averaged 22 goals (with a good number of PP minutes for those guys)

-Dallas (2nd overall last year): averaged 25.6 goals (again, A LOT of PP time and PP goals)

-Carolina (3rd overall): averaged 19 goals 

-Winnipeg (4th overall) averaged 19.6 goals

Those are the top 4 teams last year....the league average across the entire league for the 2nd line guys last year was just under 20 goals.

So again, 18-20 goals and 24-25 assists, last year, was close to both the league average and median for those 2nd line guys.

McLeod looks to have better offensive numbers than that this year. He would be an 'above average' 2nd line guy in terms or production this year. Even if he regresses a little, he is still in 2nd line territory. 

I realize this is a bit non-scientific, but lets look at this year.  Just to keep things simple, there are 32 teams and 3 spots on each line. So scoring guys #1-96 are first line guys. Guys 97-192 in scoring are 2nd line guys. The middle/median of that 2nd line group this year in goals is currently 16 goals.  The median in terms of points is 38 total points. Right now McLeod is at 17 goals (1 above the median of the leaders in guys 97-160) and 42 points (4 above the median in that group), and he is doing that with less average ice time/opportunities.   I would submit as my personal opinion he is pretty darn good defensively away from the puck (one of the better forwards on the Sabres)...so again, he can regress a little bit from this years level and still be a pretty good 2c.

So what is my point with all of the above?  That a 2C for a typical team, and a typical team often is good enough to make the playoffs, doesn't need to put up 20 goals. They can be in the 15-20 goal range (the lower end if they are good defensively) and if you get those 15-20 goals, most 2nd line (certainly the average/median) guys are NOT even reaching 30 assists, let alone 35-40.

Of course teams all would want a 2nd line guy that gives you a guaranteed 20 goals and 55-60 points. But the reality is that many teams, many playoff teams have 2nd line players and 2nd line centers that produce less than that.

 

 

So my need of 55 points is on the higher end of what the numbers show for the league. My estimate was not based on as much data as you. I’m willing to go 20g 30a 50pts for a 2C on this team. It also depends on output from the wingers which I think we should look at. 

Assuming Thompson moves to RW we need to expend assets on a 1C. IMO, see ya later Quinn and something else. Based on what’s left I think we are looking at:

Zucker McLeod Tuch

In this case we need McLeod to hit that higher end. Unless you put Norris in for Zucker but then Norris has to stay healthy. 

[mjd1001]

6 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

So my need of 55 points is on the higher end of what the numbers show for the league. My estimate was not based on as much data as you. I’m willing to go 20g 30a 50pts for a 2C on this team. It also depends on output from the wingers which I think we should look at. 

Assuming Thompson moves to RW we need to expend assets on a 1C. IMO, see ya later Quinn and something else. Based on what’s left I think we are looking at:

Zucker McLeod Tuch

In this case we need McLeod to hit that higher end. Unless you put Norris in for Zucker but then Norris has to stay healthy. 

See,I'd be OK with Mcleod in that position seeing how I think he is pretty good defensively and away from the puck.

Now, if you sign him long term and he ends up being a 10 goal, 20 assist guy long term, then you have an issue. I admit that. I just don't think he'd revert to that level.

[Carmel Corn]

Casey got 3 years at $17+ million.  I can’t see McLeod settling for any less than that.

[Archie Lee]

If what we are getting from McLeod this year is what McLeod now is, then I think he can be and maybe is, a good 2nd line centre. That’s even with a regression in shooting %. Keep him with Tuch, who I think he has good chemistry with, and I think you have a really good matchup line. If he plays with good players, the shooting % may drop but perhaps the shots/chances increase. If Thompson returns to the middle effectively, or we add a 1st line centre (hard to imagine), Norris/McLeod at 2/3 is potentially very good centre depth (label them as you wish). 

3 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Casey got 3 years at $17+ million.  I can’t see McLeod settling for any less than that.

I think he is still at a point where his 3rd line history, lack of multiple productive offensive seasons, draft pedigree, etc. could be a drag on his value. 

[LGR4GM]

McLeod is an nhl player. The Sabres need more of those. I do worry about his sh% but if he makes up for with assists, great. The Sabres issue isn't 5v5 scoring. McLeod is good at what Buffalo isn't good at. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

McLeod’s shooting % in Edm was 11.9%.  He is shooting 22% this season and only has 17 goals.  

To pay up for a career shooting year is Cozens all over again.  

Someone brought up Casey’s deal.  His was based on two consecutive 55+ seasons.  McLeod has never had over 30 points in an NHL season prior to this season.  

Again paying up for a career year would be a mistake.  He is a solid two way 3C until he proves this season isn’t an aberration.  3 years at 4.75 max.   

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

McLeod’s shooting % in Edm was 11.9%.  He is shooting 22% this season and only has 17 goals.  

To pay up for a career shooting year is Cozens all over again.  

Someone brought up Casey’s deal.  His was based on two consecutive 55+ seasons.  McLeod has never had over 30 points in an NHL season prior to this season.  

Again paying up for a career year would be a mistake.  He is a solid two way 3C until he proves this season isn’t an aberration.  3 years at 4.75 max.   

I'm good with that. His rate metrics show he's a bit better than last year so this could be his level (45ish pts) but I don't think breaking the bank on him is wise. 3 years sounds fine

[mjd1001]

I'll keep on going back to this..for those who think he is a 3rd line center.

An average/typical 3rd line guy in the NHL, if they play a full 82 games, gets 35 points.  Even with regression McLeod is showing it is likely (not definite, nothing is) but likely he is better than that.

Add to that the fact that he seems to play pretty well away from the puck, and he is a positive player...I'm not sure how anyone thinks entering his prime years you can 'get away' with paying him 3rd line money.

3rd line players, again, average 35 points.  3rd line players, even on 'good' teams,  are usually even players in goal differential or slightly positive.  He is way ahead of those productions number and he is a positive goal differential guy on THIS team, that says something.

I'm not saying to give him nearly 8.5% of the available cap next year (like you did to Cozens), but throwing out numbers that are only about 4%-5% of the cap I think are crazy low.

Edited 15 hours ago by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

I'll keep on going back to this..for those who think he is a 3rd line center.

An average/typical 3rd line guy in the NHL, if they play a full 82 games, gets 35 points.  Even with regression McLeod is showing it is likely (not definite, nothing is) but likely he is better than that.

Add to that the fact that he seems to play pretty well away from the puck, and he is a positive player...I'm not sure how anyone thinks entering his prime years you can 'get away' with paying him 3rd line money.

Last I looked Norris and TNT are ahead of him on the center depth chart.  Before this season he hadn't had over 30 points in a season.  Until he proves this season isn't an aberration, he's a 3C.  

[mjd1001]

Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

Last I looked Norris and TNT are ahead of him on the center depth chart.  Before this season he hadn't had over 30 points in a season.  Until he proves this season isn't an aberration, he's a 3C.  

The problem is you have to pay him this offseason.  A little projection is needed. If you don't trust Adams, that is why you have analytics depts.  If they could make a case to pay him only as a 3rd liner going forward, I'd like to see that case.  Very few people in this league get paid on their 'career averages', its based on what will you do for me going forward.

[DarthEbriate]

At the moment, McLeod is the 1C for every game Norris doesn't play through 2030 (unless Norris is moved before his NTC kicks in and say... Helenius... hits as a 1C).

-----

Re: the points discussion, what would we be thinking to offer McLeod if he and Cozens had had their PP roles reversed. McLeod likely has more points if he has 140 PP minutes this season, with the bulk of it on PP1. (Cozens only managed 2-2-4 in all those PP minutes.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

The problem is you have to pay him this offseason.  A little projection is needed. If you don't trust Adams, that is why you have analytics depts.  If they could make a case to pay him only as a 3rd liner going forward, I'd like to see that case.  Very few people in this league get paid on their 'career averages', its based on what will you do for me going forward.

If you read my prior post; 3 years 4.75.  

[mjd1001]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If you read my prior post; 3 years 4.75.  

I don't think that gets it done.

Mind you, I would love for him to accept that.  If he did I'd be happy. I just think, especially with the cap going up so much next year and projected for further pretty large increases, he will require a bit more. Thats about 5% of the cap.  I think they are going to have to go to about 6%.  Especially because the Sabres are sending him a message right now that not only is he not a #3 Center, he's a #2 for sure and currently is getting first line minutes.  Its going to be hard for them to offer him a short-ish deal as he enters the prime of his career for 5% of the cap when he is getting used as much as he is, and producing in that role.

I don't think hardly any team in the league gets away with 5% of the cap on a 3 year deal for a guy who is getting you close to 20 goals and 50 points in a season, who plays center, is one of your better 2-way guys, and is only 25 years old. 

Edited 15 hours ago by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Last I looked Norris and TNT are ahead of him on the center depth chart.  Before this season he hadn't had over 30 points in a season.  Until he proves this season isn't an aberration, he's a 3C.  

Tage has taken 10 or more faceoffs only five times in the last 30 games. Kulich/Norris have been 1C and McLeod has been the 2C since 12/31/24.

Now, with a coaching change, maybe Tage shifts back to center, but Ruff has him skating on the wing this year.

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, DarthEbriate said:

Tage has taken 10 or more faceoffs only five times in the last 30 games. Kulich/Norris have been 1C and McLeod has been the 2C since 12/31/24.

Now, with a coaching change, maybe Tage shifts back to center, but Ruff has him skating on the wing this year.

I really think part of moving Tage to wing was to open up more ice time for McLeod and Kulich.  It was about the time Tage moved to Wing that McLeod started to get more ice time.

I know Lindy at one point earlier in the year criticized Cozens and Tage's play away from the puck at Center.

But since he has moved to wing, I don't see much of a difference in his play.  His play away from the puck. His production. His scoring chances.  Everything I see is he is pretty much the same. No better, no worse at either position. 

If that is true, that means you put him in a position that allows you to put OTHER guys where you want them. Tage is giving you the same at Wing or Center? Great, we can move him to wing and give McLeod and Kulich more time at Center then.

[LGR4GM]

Ryan McLeod's rate metrics per 60mins

2023: 0.6g/60, 0.9a/60, 0.8a1/60

2024: 0.9g/60, 1.4a/60, 0.7a1/60

His goals per 60 has gone up but that is partially explained by his sh%. Sam Reinhart is one of the few guys who shoots near 20% just you understand that doing it regularly is rare. We should assume that his goal total will regress unless he shoots more to make up for it. Oddly, his shots per 60 has dropped from 5.5 to 4.3 this year. He should probably have even more goals. 

Then we have his assists per 60 and that is up by quite a bit. The interesting thing is that it is being driven by a big jump in his secondary assists. he's up from .2 to .7 in terms of a2 (2nd assists) which does not necessarily mean anything bad. It probably has to do with him being a puck transporter who doesn't shoot a bunch. Either way, the assist number are fairly nice to see. Peterka for example has almost the same assist metrics, only being .1 better in both categories. He's only .2 better in terms of g/60. That should put McLeod's season in a bit of context. 

I think he's potentially coming into his own as a legit 2c type of player that can score, defend, and otherwise tilt the ice towards your teams favor. That said, we do not have enough evidence that this is sustainable. A sh% of 22.1 is certainly not. That said if he shot at his career avg of 14.2 he would have 11g instead of 17 which isn't a small difference. How good can he be with pp2 time and encouraging him to uncork his shot more? Hard to say but at a minimum, you have a higher end 3c with potential for a lot more. Considering he starts in the defensive zone a whopping 64.6% of the time, giving him more o-zone faceoffs could offset some things... but also, it tells us how good he has been defensively overall. 

[Thorner]

The 60th ranked C last year had 47 points

The 45th ranked C had 60 points. 

You are going to want your guy to be consistently above 50. McLeod has a great narrative when we were expecting 3C production and “hey look he might get 50!”. If we sign him long term and pencil him in for 2C, the narrative can flip pretty quickly to, “and look, he might not even hit 50!”

Edited 12 hours ago by Thorner

[LGR4GM]

52 minutes ago, Thorner said:

The 60th ranked C last year had 47 points

The 45th ranked C had 60 points. 

You are going to want your guy to be consistently above 50. McLeod has a great narrative when we were expecting 3C production and “hey look he might get 50!”. If we sign him long term and pencil him in for 2C, the narrative can flip pretty quickly to, “and look, he might not even hit 50!”

I think we should view more as a 3c+ where he can fill in for the 2c due to injury or other shenanigans. Issue is that leaves us without a 1c still as Norris is a 2c and also.. injured... again.