What is Ryan McLeod worth to you?

[LGR4GM]

What are you paying McLeod and where should he play? He's a RFA and he's been pretty good at a 200ft game all year. He's fairly consistent with a limited arsenal that is still an effective one. 

McLeod currently has 17g and 42pts in 66 games. Those are career highs for him and he is shooting at 22.1% on a career avg of 14.2% so scoring regression is a real concern. 

 

Edited Monday at 03:53 PM by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

I’d give up Matt Savoie

[inkman]

Without knowing much at all I’d peg him around $5-6 mill per. 

[mjd1001]

16 minutes ago, inkman said:

Without knowing much at all I’d peg him around $5-6 mill per. 

I'd say about $5m per year with the current cap. With the cap going up, getting signed to $5m per year a year or two ago will be equal to $6m per year next year and the few years after.

As for is this a 'career year' or is this a legit step forward with more opportunity?  The analytics dept and the pro scouts know more than I do, I'll leave that up to them.

I would say I think you can make the case for him being the 4th best player on the team this year...after Tuch, Thompson, Dahlin (put in him the battle for 4th with Zucker)

Also, I dont' worry too much about 'overpaying' him. When you go back to the Tage and Cozens contracts, they were paid about 8.6% of the cap the year they were signed. It looks like a good signing for Tage, bad one for Cozens for the Sabres. A 'comparable' contract (same percentage of cap) starting next year would be about $8.2m per year.  I don't think he is getting that. If they give him $7.5+ or over, yeah, come back to me and I'll question it, but I don't think things will be in that range.

I'm not saying to overpay him just because you can....but if you worry he'll be another 'Cozens', well, then you are never going to pay anyone anymore.

Edited Monday at 04:54 PM by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

Age 25 season with the Sabres:

5-on-5 only

11-14-25 Pts   36 blocks; 20 hits;  58.0 FO%  ;   54.5 % D-Zone starts; 

11-21-32 Pts   20 blocks; 14 hits;  53.1 FO%  ;  57.5 % D-Zone starts

 

One of these Ryans is McLeod and the other is O'Reilly.

I'm purposely not including the PP numbers because ROR had 208 minutes of PP time that season while McLeod has had 26 minutes (so far.)

[Mr Peabody]

Per above I also compare him to an O’Reilly type and I’d put him between Tage and Zucker for the remaining games to see how he does.  His D would complement Tage.  I’d separate Tage and Norris based on their goals / assists numbers. Put Norris with Tuch and JJ.  Let Kulich center Geeenway and Benson. 

[Thorner]

Very good 3C, “hey MAYBE we can make the playoffs with him as the 2C” type money.

We know where Adams slots him 

[mjd1001]

One more positive to look at McLeods game.  He does what he does without having Dahlin on the ice with him.

There are a few people here who still don't hold Dahlin in that high of regard, but to many of us, he is the best player on the ice.  Almost EVERYONE has better numbers, better metrics, better goal differential when playing with Dahlin compared to anyone else on defense.

McLeod has only 31.3% of his ice time with Dahlin).  McLeods analytics are worse (obviously) without Dahlin with him...but if you just give him a bit more time with Dahlin, his numbers would be much better.

For comparison, Tage has almost 44% of his time (even strength) with Dahlin backstopping the team behind him. 31.3% vs almost 44% is a pretty big difference.  When you add to that the fact McLeod doesn't get much PP time, the numbers are even bigger considering that.

So in the grand scheme of things, does it mean a lot? Maybe not. But if most of the board think the 3rd pair, Samuelsson and Power have been pretty bad defensively....Well, McLeod plays more time with those guys behind him and less with Dahlin.

Edited Monday at 05:31 PM by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I’d give up Matt Savoie

Savoie, 0g, 1a, -4 in 4 NHL games this season. 

[Thorner]

32 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

One more positive to look at McLeods game.  He does what he does without having Dahlin on the ice with him.

There are a few people here who still don't hold Dahlin in that high of regard, but to many of us, he is the best player on the ice.  Almost EVERYONE has better numbers, better metrics, better goal differential when playing with Dahlin compared to anyone else on defense.

McLeod has only 31.3% of his ice time with Dahlin).  McLeods analytics are worse (obviously) without Dahlin with him...but if you just give him a bit more time with Dahlin, his numbers would be much better.

For comparison, Tage has almost 44% of his time (even strength) with Dahlin backstopping the team behind him. 31.3% vs almost 44% is a pretty big difference.  When you add to that the fact McLeod doesn't get much PP time, the numbers are even bigger considering that.

So in the grand scheme of things, does it mean a lot? Maybe not. But if most of the board think the 3rd pair, Samuelsson and Power have been pretty bad defensively....Well, McLeod plays more time with those guys behind him and less with Dahlin.

Dahlin mvp 

[JohnC]

A couple of Savoie/McCleud deals in the offseason would be such a pleasant surprise. 

[triumph_communes]

He’s worth the vet premium alone. I don’t care if we overpay 

[GASabresIUFAN]

If Adams pays him on this year's numbers he is crazy.  The 22% shooting % is not sustainable and will lead to a dangerous overpay.  We also have to take into account that guys like Kulich, Östlund and Helenius are coming and at some point they are going to take McLeod's and others roster spot.  

That said, he has been better than advertised overall although the offense is terribly inconsistent.  He has been hot the last 9 games, but invisible the prior 8 as the graphic last night pointed out.  I'd sign him for 3 years and try to stay $5 mill or under.  I value his FO acumen and two way play, but I don't want to overpay for the offense.  

I was very critical of McLeod earlier in the season as he went through a major scoring drought and got demoted to the 4th line.  I worry that could happen again and I can also see him over the term of a new deal getting pushed down the lineup as more talented players take the 3rd line C job.  I don't want to be paying $5+ mill a season again for a 4th line player (see Okposo).

[matter2003]

been a good player, we should keep him.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If Adams pays him on this year's numbers he is crazy.  The 22% shooting % is not sustainable and will lead to a dangerous overpay.  We also have to take into account that guys like Kulich, Östlund and Helenius are coming and at some point they are going to take McLeod's and others roster spot.  

That said, he has been better than advertised overall although the offense is terribly inconsistent.  He has been hot the last 9 games, but invisible the prior 8 as the graphic last night pointed out.  I'd sign him for 3 years and try to stay $5 mill or under.  I value his FO acumen and two way play, but I don't want to overpay for the offense.  

I was very critical of McLeod earlier in the season as he went through a major scoring drought and got demoted to the 4th line.  I worry that could happen again and I can also see him over the term of a new deal getting pushed down the lineup as more talented players take the 3rd line C job.  I don't want to be paying $5+ mill a season again for a 4th line player (see Okposo).

The f##k we do! I am not going to worry about anyone taking McLeod's roster spot until they actually show up and take his spot. Good f-ing lord, we are not doing this again. We are not doing the "well what about *insert unproven prospect here* as any sort of justification for not paying McLeod. 

The sh% point is very valid. Calling McLeod a 4th line player has not and continues to not be in any way shape or form accurate. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The f##k we do! I am not going to worry about anyone taking McLeod's roster spot until they actually show up and take his spot. Good f-ing lord, we are not doing this again. We are not doing the "well what about *insert unproven prospect here* as any sort of justification for not paying McLeod. 

The sh% point is very valid. Calling McLeod a 4th line player has not and continues to not be in any way shape or form accurate. 

My point is I'm not giving McLeod a 5 year deal and either is Adams.  I know you are a fan, but you have to admit his offense has been all over the place this season.  Also it is a fact that Lindy demoted him to the 4th line this season when he wasn't contributing.   

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My point is I'm not giving McLeod a 5 year deal and either is Adams.  I know you are a fan, but you have to admit his offense has been all over the place this season.  Also it is a fact that Lindy demoted him to the 4th line this season when he wasn't contributing.   

Cozens spent months not contributing too but he wasn't sent to the 4th line. Maybe Ruff is just ***** at his job. Cozens offense was all over the place and he got prime PP time and prime linemates. In fact, while McLeod was not contributing offensively he was still the same solid defensive player, meanwhile if Cozens isn't contributing offensively he is just awful. Again, Ruff being a bad coach and spending 4 months not giving McLeod more playing time is more an indictment of Ruff and when we compare it to Cozens, who could do no wrong and was gifted opportunities while the team sank, it seems a little hollow. If Cozens is a 2nd line C than at minimum McLeod is a 3rd. You continually talking about him like a 4th line player is truthfully nuts. 4th line players don't put up 17g and 40+ pts. They put up 7g and about 15pts. Krebs is the perfect example of the difference between a 4th line player and McLeod. 

I actually will not admit his offense has been all over the place. I went and looked it up. From November 20 - December 12 (9 games) McLeod did not record a point. Then he scores a few assists and then has another 4 games where he doesn't score points ending on December 21st. Basically we have a month where McLeod had some scoring woes. Interestingly this is the time of the 13 game losing streak although it doesn't line up perfectly. Outside of that, I would characterize McLeod's points as steady. There are a couple of 3 game stretches but outside of that since January 9th, McLeod has 11g, 13a and 24pts. Maybe he finally settled into the new team or just got better, hard to say but I don't agree his offense has been all over the place. Not anymore than some others. Let's look at Tuch, from Dec 7th to Jan 4th, Tuch only got points in 2 out of 14 games. He had 4 total goals including 1 hat trick. Does that make Alex Tuch a 4th liner? Let's talk about Cozens again, he has 3 games total where he had more than 1 assist and 0 games where he had more than 1 goal. He doesn't have a prolonged period of nothing but he does have a massive stretch of 1a, then 2 games of nothing, 1g, a game with nothing, 1a, a game with nothing.

Cozens: 14g, 24a, 69games

McLeod: 17g, 25a, 66games

I would absolutely give McLeod a 5yr deal because I don't think it would be that expensive. Ryan McLeod is probably a very good 3rd line center or potentially a solid 2nd line center. His sh% is too high and he will regress, so he would need to up his shot totals to compensate. If he gets 20mins a night and pp time, he probably can still be a 20g player. 

[Archie Lee]

23 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

My point is I'm not giving McLeod a 5 year deal and either is Adams.  I know you are a fan, but you have to admit his offense has been all over the place this season.  Also it is a fact that Lindy demoted him to the 4th line this season when he wasn't contributing.   

It’s just my view, but Ruff demoting McLeod to line 4 because he went pointless during their 3 game win streak in California, was a small but, nonetheless, contributing factor to the 13 game losing streak. Ruff demoting McLeod is an indictment of Ruff, not McLeod. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

In McLeod's 1st 40 games as a Sabres he had 6 goals and 12 assists, with 4 of the 6 goals comings in the games 5-8.  That means just 2 goals in the other 36 games.  In the last 20 of those 40 games, McLeod had zero goals and only 6 assists.

In the last 26 games he's 11g and 12a assists, with 9 of these 23 points coming in the last 7 games.  

I'm sorry, but that's the farthest thing from consistent production.  

Spin it anyway you want, but I'm not paying up for that offense and if we sign him for more than 3 years we will regret it.

Edited Monday at 08:12 PM by GASabresIUFAN

[thewookie1]

4x4.5 is my max, he's a 3C who can spot play as a 2C.

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

One more positive to look at McLeods game.  He does what he does without having Dahlin on the ice with him.

There are a few people here who still don't hold Dahlin in that high of regard, but to many of us, he is the best player on the ice.  Almost EVERYONE has better numbers, better metrics, better goal differential when playing with Dahlin compared to anyone else on defense.

McLeod has only 31.3% of his ice time with Dahlin).  McLeods analytics are worse (obviously) without Dahlin with him...but if you just give him a bit more time with Dahlin, his numbers would be much better.

For comparison, Tage has almost 44% of his time (even strength) with Dahlin backstopping the team behind him. 31.3% vs almost 44% is a pretty big difference.  When you add to that the fact McLeod doesn't get much PP time, the numbers are even bigger considering that.

So in the grand scheme of things, does it mean a lot? Maybe not. But if most of the board think the 3rd pair, Samuelsson and Power have been pretty bad defensively....Well, McLeod plays more time with those guys behind him and less with Dahlin.

He also was one of, if not the only Edmonton Player who put up consistent offensive metrics away from McDavid

[Brawndo]

Looking at Evoling Hockey’s Model- McLeod has been consistently improving his offensive metrics season after season, all the while staying the the top 20% of the NHL for defensive metrics. 
 

I would not shy away from term with him 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In McLeod's 1st 40 games as a Sabres he had 6 goals and 12 assists, with 4 of the 6 goals comings in the games 5-8.  That means just 2 goals in the other 36 games.  In the last 20 of those 40 games, McLeod had zero goals and only 6 assists.

In the last 26 games he's 11g and 12a assists, with 9 of these 23 points coming in the last 7 games.  

I'm sorry, but that's the farthest thing from consistent production.  

Spin it anyway you want, but I'm not paying up for that offense and if we sign him for more than 3 years we will regret it.

And yet you didn't feel this way about Cozens. McLeod isn't a 4th line player, no matter how you spin it or the production you ignore. 

[dudacek]

50 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Looking at Evoling Hockey’s Model- McLeod has been consistently improving his offensive metrics season after season, all the while staying the the top 20% of the NHL for defensive metrics. 
 

I would not shy away from term with him 

It would seem to be the most Sabreish thing to play hardball with an unheralded player they watch emerging before their eyes while ignoring lack of same with their touted high picks.

Yet this is the same leadership that went all in on Tage Thompson, so perhaps that comment isn’t fair at all.

I just wish I had more reason to trust their judgement.

[SABRES 0311]

In another thread I was against McLeod being 2C. Looking back, a reason I gave against it is also a reason to do it. If Thompson is a winger and not a center, McLeod as 2C might be the way to go. There’s no way this GM can get a 1C, 2C, top four Dman, and goaltending upgrade in one offseason.

Then what do we do with Norris?

To answer the OP question he is worth 4x$5mil.

Edited Monday at 11:52 PM by SABRES 0311