Peterka’s next contract; trade, bridge or lock-up long-term?

[GASabresIUFAN]

He has been the Sabres best scoring forward the last 20 games.  He had 12g and 10a though his last 20 games including the 1st period today.  He has 54 points, including 22 goals in 64 games (assuming he doesn’t add more today against WPG.). He also had 28 goals and 50 pts last season.  70 points doesn’t look out of reach.  

Two way playing still isn’t great but is improving.  Ruff is skating him 20+ the last 8.

So what’s his next deal?  3 years at 5.75 mill, 7 years at 7?
 

 

[Pimlach]

Bridge. 

[bunomatic]

Calgary is going to offer sheet JJ or Byram. Book it.

[SABRES 0311]

If I’m Peterka I tell KA I want to get paid. I use Cozens and Power as examples. If he’s willing to give big contracts to players who mean/meant less on this team, he should be willing to give big money to one who actually helps.

[Porous Five Hole]

3 minutes ago, bunomatic said:

Calgary is going to offer sheet JJ or Byram. Book it.

Here are the most likely tiers and draft compensation:

$4,580,917 - $6,871,3741 1st-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick

$6,871,374 - $9,161,8341 1st-round pick, 1 2nd-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick

I think you instantly match anything for JJP in either tier.  Certainly match up to 6.8MM for Byram (especially if you buy out Muel for 700k a season). But if someone wants to pay Byram more than 7MM, I’m not so sure about that.  

[The Jokeman]

Bridge JJP, I love him but rather be smart.

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Here are the most likely tiers and draft compensation:

$4,580,917 - $6,871,3741 1st-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick

$6,871,374 - $9,161,8341 1st-round pick, 1 2nd-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick

I think you instantly match anything for JJP in either tier.  Certainly match up to 6.8MM for Byram (especially if you buy out Muel for 700k a season). But if someone wants to pay Byram more than 7MM, I’m not so sure about that.  

I’d first talk trade with CGY if they really want one or both. I want Weegar

[Carmel Corn]

What's interesting to me is what does JJP want in regards to term?  Does he favor a bridge that might enable him to get out of dodge or does he want a 7 year type deal?  How much does he love playing in Buffalo....whether it is a good team or terrible one?

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Here are the most likely tiers and draft compensation:

$4,580,917 - $6,871,3741 1st-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick

$6,871,374 - $9,161,8341 1st-round pick, 1 2nd-round pick, 1 3rd-round pick

I think you instantly match anything for JJP in either tier.  Certainly match up to 6.8MM for Byram (especially if you buy out Muel for 700k a season). But if someone wants to pay Byram more than 7MM, I’m not so sure about that.  

Adams likely wants offer sheets so that he can match and doesn't have to actually negotiate the next contract.  I agree with @thewookie1 that I'd try to trade Byram and getting some NHL talent in return for Byram.

[DarthEbriate]

I had this in the Peterka to NY thread --   if JJP wants to go, all he has to do is sign a 1-year offer sheet (and tell the offering team he's willing to sign long-term with them). $6.8M for JJP for one year - a late 1st and a 3rd if you're a competitive team for a scorer who is about to be in his prime and will have the post-Buffalo bonus? That's pretty tempting for a playoff-bound squad.

[thewookie1]

Ideally, Calgary would offersheet Peterka if he wants to leave. Let's say 5x8mil which would fall in the 1,2,3 value. Peterka doesn't make Calgary a surefire playoff team and the 1st in unprotected in the McKenna sweepstakes.

If we actually have a shot at the playoffs next year, you'd have the ability to offer the lower of 2 1sts for a rental

Meanwhile, if our pick this year drops below 5 OA; I'd look to make a trade with it either to acquire a player outright or trade down and get a player in compensation.

[PerreaultForever]

9 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

If I’m Peterka I tell KA I want to get paid. I use Cozens and Power as examples. If he’s willing to give big contracts to players who mean/meant less on this team, he should be willing to give big money to one who actually helps.

Yes, I suspect his agent will be asking for a lot. No idea what Adams will do as he is usually incompetent with these things. Would not be surprised if he was traded. Would not be surprised if Adams pays him a lot. Would not be surprised if he turns into the next Cozens either. 

[SABRES 0311]

1 hour ago, PerreaultForever said:

Yes, I suspect his agent will be asking for a lot. No idea what Adams will do as he is usually incompetent with these things. Would not be surprised if he was traded. Would not be surprised if Adams pays him a lot. Would not be surprised if he turns into the next Cozens either. 

I worry about KA trading him. He’ll pay a bust like Quinn and get a couple picks for Peterka.

[North Buffalo]

No Trades.... just No Trades

[Jorcus]

6 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

I had this in the Peterka to NY thread --   if JJP wants to go, all he has to do is sign a 1-year offer sheet (and tell the offering team he's willing to sign long-term with them). $6.8M for JJP for one year - a late 1st and a 3rd if you're a competitive team for a scorer who is about to be in his prime and will have the post-Buffalo bonus? That's pretty tempting for a playoff-bound squad.

I don't think that would work. A team would not give up a 1st and 3rd for 1 year and a promise that can be broken if the player does not like what's going on after the year is up. We could match 6.8 for one year without a problem.

[Doohicksie]

15 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

If I’m Peterka I tell KA I want to get paid. I use Cozens and Power as examples. If he’s willing to give big contracts to players who mean/meant less on this team, he should be willing to give big money to one who actually helps.

I think Kevyn could point at Dylan's contract year, and the following years, as a reason why he shouldn't give JJ a long deal.  A breakout year needs to be sustained for more than a year before it's rewarded.  Of course maybe Kevyn hasn't learned this lesson yet.

On the other hand, what are the odds that Kevyn won't be heading up negotiations this summer?

[GASabresIUFAN]

33 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

I think Kevyn could point at Dylan's contract year, and the following years, as a reason why he shouldn't give JJ a long deal.  A breakout year needs to be sustained for more than a year before it's rewarded.  Of course maybe Kevyn hasn't learned this lesson yet.

On the other hand, what are the odds that Kevyn won't be heading up negotiations this summer?

There is a major difference.  Cozens 31 goals came in his 3rd season, but he only had 13g and 38pts the season prior.

JJP is also in his 3rd season, but unlike Cozens, he proved he was a capable scorer the year prior when he had 28g and 50 pts.  This season he has still scoring, but has improved his playmaking to go along with it.  

[LGR4GM]

JJ Peterka's 15% shooting isn't abnormal so he could maintain something similar. His career is 12.4% so he's within a deviation easily. Peterka isn't great or bad defensively, he's fairly middle of the road. He's not overly physical or overly passive. His puck carrying is fine. He really excels at using his handling to buy time and space to uncork his shot and he's fairly clever with his passing and offensive zone play. A direct style of forward that is effective if not remarkable. He's a great example of a 2nd line winger with potential for upside. 

I wouldn't go longer than 4yrs. I think if he does get way better, you're happy to pay him in 4yrs anyways. If he gets worse, you are out from under him. I know that walks him to UFA but if he is unhappy it might get him signed for some time so things can get fixed in Buffalo (lol, not with Terry as owner) and then you can figure out what you want to do in the meantime. 8yrs for just about anyone not named Dahlin is a mistake in my mind. 7yrs for Samuelsson was dumb, and Power looks to be an overpay too. UPL got 5 years but I hate giving unproven goalies that much term and here we are. I like Peterka, he has been good this year. He has a great shot, is durable, isn't awful defensively. Is he a 60pt player or an 80pt player? My gut leans towards 60 as I don't think there is a way for him to drastically increase goals or assists. 2-4yrs (5 if you really wanna push it) and then see where you are at. What's that worth? probably in that 7million dollar range. 

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is a major difference.  Cozens 31 goals came in his 3rd season, but he only had 13g and 38pts the season prior.

JJP is also in his 3rd season, but unlike Cozens, he proved he was a capable scorer the year prior when he had 28g and 50 pts.  This season he has still scoring, but has improved his playmaking to go along with it.  

Has he? Or did he go from playing with Cozens (who cannot shoot for *****) and Quinn (who can and was decent last year) to primarily playing with Tage and Tuch. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Has he? Or did he go from playing with Cozens (who cannot shoot for *****) and Quinn (who can and was decent last year) to primarily playing with Tage and Tuch. 

Playing with better players always helps with the counting stats, but the eye test shows a more complete player even when not playing with TnT or Tuch. 
 

The bottom line is that this isn’t a surprise breakout year like Cozens, but the continued development on a top 6 forward who has improved every season in the NHL.  

Edited Monday at 01:37 PM by GASabresIUFAN

[Ctaeth]

I think I remember seeing a stat that with Tuch.. other teams were scoring once every 33ish minutes while JJ is on the ice.  Without Tuch, it was like once every 13 minutes while JJ is on the ice.  I don't remember the source, so there's a chance I might be misremembering that.  

Edited Monday at 01:58 PM by Ctaeth

[Jorcus]

16 hours ago, bunomatic said:

Calgary is going to offer sheet JJ or Byram. Book it.

 

I really hope the Sabres have some back up plans in case this happens. My guess is Byram would attract a higher price on the open market. It's a harder position to fill than a wing and If Calgary is going to to do it I think Byram is the target. The last thing the Sabres need right now is a bunch of middle round picks in 2026. They have to have some trades to counter act the move. JJ might draw interest but giving him a large long term deal seems to carry more risk. Our "pipeline" may be able to recover from losing him if the price gets too high but it will hurt in the short term. McCloud is going to be of interest as well. He could certainly get a mid tier offer sheet. This offer sheet system sucks because the NHL does not differentiate the difference between the 1st pick in the draft and the 32nd pick in the draft. They have to find a better way to compensate teams for losing players.   

Edited Monday at 01:47 PM by Jorcus

[bob_sauve28]

Lock him up long term. He's an awesome hockey player. 

 

Should have locked up Samson long term 

[shrader]

14 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Lock him up long term. He's an awesome hockey player. 

 

Should have locked up Samson long term 

The only thing locking Reinhart long term would have done was draw a bigger return from the future trade. He was going to want out either way. He’ll, even Florida didn’t lock him up long term right away, starting off on a 3 year deal. 

[Doohicksie]

55 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Playing with better players always helps with the counting stats, but the eye test shows a more complete player even when not playing with TnT or Tuch. 
 

The bottom line is that this isn’t a surprise breakout year like Cozens, but the continued development on a top 6 forward who has improved every season in the NHL.  

I actually agree with that.  He's still shoot-first, but if the shot isn't there he's been better at executing the next pass to an open linemate.

[CallawaySabres]

Buffalo will not offer long term because they have already ruined the next 5 years of this organization by offering it too early to others. Peterka will not want to stay, I mean, why would he. The offer sheet will come and he will happily sign it while Buffalo gets more draft picks that won't see the ice for 3-5 years. Buffalo is in a can't-win situation with any player that is worth keeping right now (and is unsigned).