Dahlin anchors NHL’s 5th-best first pairing

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Now, I’m not saying Dahlin and Byram are Makar and Toews. But when Colorado put Makar and Toews together and realized they had something special, they didn’t then spend a lot of time splitting them up to see if they were as good with, or if they could lift the games of, other players. They locked them up, kept them together, considered themselves blessed to have the best d-pairing in hockey, and figured out who their 2nd and 3rd pairings are.  The Sabres, on the other hand, break up their top pairing to see if they can get Samuelsson going. 

The Sabres obsession with Samuelsson is mind boggling

[Crusader1969]

Woe.  Power's perfect on the tape pass to JJP leads to Minnys 3rd goal

weak 

[Archie Lee]

42 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I don't know, UPL looks like the UPL of old so I'm not sure Ruff is at fault for that he seems to not make the big save when we need him to. I like Reimer's play alot and I was thinking what might have been had we switched Reimer with UPL in many of those games, probably the same result but I think Reimer has played really well.

Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Ruff coaches a good structure, and every starting goalie just happens to have a down year when they play for him. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, kas23 said:

It’s interesting, the first line and top D pairing playing a fairly big chunk of the game. It’s far from an even distribution. So, the remainder of the lines and D pairings must be well below average (ie barely NHL players) to bring the team down the standings to the bottom 5 worse teams. Are they truly this bad? Imagine if the rest of the team was just plain average. We’d be fighting for a playoff spot. 

The 4th line this year has been awful.  At least in terms of production and goals allowed. As much as people complained about Girgensons and Okposo, for the last few years they were even, sometimes a bit positive, sometimes a bit negative. But this 4th line has been bad.  Lafftert, Malenstyn and whoever else is with them on a line are a -18 goal differential through this part of the season...on pace for about a -25 goal differential for the season.  The 4th line the last 2 years COMBINED is about a -5 goal differential.

The Cozens line (usually with Quinn) has always been an issue also. We have gone over it on this board before, Every single forward has better numbers without Cozens than with, even when you take a deep dive into analytics like Corsi, Fenwick, shots allowed, scoring chances, expected goals, etc.  But just this year, Cozens, Quinn, or when the 2 of them together, they are/were a collective -22 goal differential.

When Tuch, Thompson, or both are on the ice, the team is a collective +14 in goal differential (not counting PP, even strength only)

McLeod's line (various teammates) is a +4.

So yeah....as far as forwards go, the 4th line and the Cozens/Quinn lines have sunk this team.  Tage, Tuch, and the Mcleod lines (with various teamates) are a +18 combined in goal differential. The 4th line and Cozens/Quinn combined for a -47.

In terms of D-men, Dahlin carries everyone he is with. He's probably best with Byram, but not as drastically as many think.

When Bryam is on the ice without Dahlin, the teams goal differential is -11. Clifton without Dahlin -6. Bryson without Dahline -3. Samuelsson without Dahlin -1, Power without Dahlin -9.

Of all the D-men, Jokiharju has the best deep analytics and the best goal differntial with or without Dahlin.  He was positive with Dahlin, positive without Dahlin, and his deeper stats like Fenwich, x goals, corsi were positive with Dahlin and close to even without him.

Of course...these numbers alone do not prove who is good and who is bad, but they are a starting point.  And while not proof alone, they do tend to 'verify' what many of us see with out eyes when we watch the games.

Edited Saturday at 08:26 PM by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Ruff coaches a good structure, and every starting goalie just happens to have a down year when they play for him. 

Except Vanacek had better save percentage/numbers in the 2 years under Ruff in New Jesey compared to what he has done since then. Niemi and Lehtonen where his 2 goalies most used in Dallas and they were about the same, or slightly worse after Ruff left.

I'm not saying Ruff may have a more complicated, or worse system for D-men to master and that it may or may not hurt goalies. The overall numbers for many goalies, especially in NJ are a bit worse under Ruff, But saying every starting goalie under him has down years..just not true.

Edited Saturday at 08:35 PM by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

Bowen Byram also deserves credit for excelling in a supporting role as Dahlin’s partner for most of the season

Good on Ruff for playing Samuelsson and Dahlin together since the trade deadline then.

[Archie Lee]

28 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Except Vanacek had better save percentage/numbers in the 2 years under Ruff in New Jesey compared to what he has done since then. Niemi and Lehtonen where his 2 goalies most used in Dallas and they were about the same, or slightly worse after Ruff left.

I'm not saying Ruff may have a more complicated, or worse system for D-men to master and that it may or may not hurt goalies. The overall numbers for many goalies, especially in NJ are a bit worse under Ruff, But saying every starting goalie under him has down years..just not true.

You mean in the 1/2 year in San Jose?  Vanecek imploded to .890 in year two under Ruff. You are right though that his save % got even worse this year with San Jose. Ruff can hang his hat on his system being better than the worst team in the league. Though, Blackwood’s save % tanked under Ruff and then got a lot better in San Jose…so maybe not. 

Edited Saturday at 09:02 PM by Archie Lee

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, Sidc3000 said:

Absolutely. I would love to see both him and Thompson go to contenders. They both deserve it and will never see it here 

I don't see the same level of compete from Thompson as I do for Dahlin. Dahlin makes mistakes, but he is always trying. Thompson is off and on. Always has been and likely always will be. 

Dahlin signed a big money contract long term to be here. If he didn't want it he shouldn't have signed it so I have no respect for wanting out if he actually does. Demanding change, telling the owner to fire the useless GM sure, but asking for an exit? no. You signed it you honor it. 

[LGR4GM]

8 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Ruff coaches a good structure, and every starting goalie just happens to have a down year when they play for him. 

And maybe scallops will fly out of me underpants 

4 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I don't see the same level of compete from Thompson as I do for Dahlin. Dahlin makes mistakes, but he is always trying. Thompson is off and on. Always has been and likely always will be. 

Dahlin signed a big money contract long term to be here. If he didn't want it he shouldn't have signed it so I have no respect for wanting out if he actually does. Demanding change, telling the owner to fire the useless GM sure, but asking for an exit? no. You signed it you honor it. 

Honor goes both ways. If someone neglects their end, leave. Don't waste your life working for ppl who can't be bothered. 

[PerreaultForever]

19 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

And maybe scallops will fly out of me underpants 

Honor goes both ways. If someone neglects their end, leave. Don't waste your life working for ppl who can't be bothered. 

I suppose so but that only holds if you were promised something. Did Adams promise him something different? He might have but idk. I just know the bs Adams spews in his limited pressers. 

One could argue that Dahlin is stupid if he expected something to change or be different. They're all stupid believing it, and so are we. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

I wonder what Dahlin would look like on a Winnepg or Washington or Colorado, All the accolades. Sucks that he's the only 1st round pick in all these years that seems to be doing anything. He probbaly misses the blondes and Fika in Sweden. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Maybe it’s just a coincidence. Ruff coaches a good structure, and every starting goalie just happens to have a down year when they play for him. 

You mean besides Hasek, Biron, Miller, Vanacek, and Lehtonen.  In fact, Vanacek and Biron had their career best seasons with Ruff as the coach.  

[Jorcus]

20 hours ago, Thorner said:

Dahlin’s pair is going to be at that level if his partner is above replacement level  

We know this because that’s the surface Byram eclipses while removed 

The thing most keeping Dahlin and Byram from being Makar and Toews is the gap between Toews and Byram

id take Dahlin and toews over Makar and Byram 

 

Comparing Dahlin to Makar is like comparing Messier to Gretzky. Both great but in different ways. Dahlin has more power and 2 way play. He will fight you and throw you on the ice. Makar is better with his stick. He is quicker and handles the puck with speed. Both exceptional talents.

I think most people around here under rate Byram. He is only 23 years old and has played 232 NHL games. Dahlin started earlier but he really started to blossom after he played 200 games. Byram is fast, He carries the puck well, he is a very good passer. Considering he is on the 2nd power play unit he plays a lot of minutes. 

At 30 years old you could say Devon Towes is better than Byram right now. Towes never even started playing in the NHL hockey until he was 24 years old. He is about as good as he will ever be. In the long run If Byram stays healthy he will have a way better career. 

I am pretty convinced we are going to lose Byram. Adams or whomever better get something really good in return. We can't give him up for draft picks. He is worth a lot. 

Edited Sunday at 01:52 PM by Jorcus

[Archie Lee]

12 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You mean besides Hasek, Biron, Miller, Vanacek, and Lehtonen.  In fact, Vanacek and Biron had their career best seasons with Ruff as the coach.  

If you want to hang your hat on what Miller did under Ruff over a decade ago, Biron nearly 20 years ago, and Hasek a quarter century ago, have at it.

Lehtonen:  Was a .911 to .921 goalie (.906 as a rookie) his entire career pre-Ruff.  He was .919 his first year under Ruff.  He then dropped to .903, .906, .902. When Ruff left Dallas, Lehtonen then rebounded to .912 under Hitchcock, before retiring.

Niemi: Was a .912 to .920 goalie his entire career.  Then under Ruff he fell to .905 and then .892.  He bounced around for one year after he left Dallas, but posted a .917 in 19 games with Montreal, before finishing his career with a bad .887.

Blackwood: was .918 and .915 in his first two NHL seasons. Under Ruff he fell to .902, .892, .893. Last year in San Jose he was .899 but bounced back this year to .911 in San Jose and .917 in Colorado. 

Vanecek:  Was a .908 goalie pre-Ruff.  Was .911 in his first year under Ruff, the season NJ had 112 points (credit to everyone there, most certainly including Ruff).  He then dropped to .890 in year two under Ruff.  He has not had a positive bounce back this year in San Jose or yet in Florida.

I'm sure there were multiple factors in each goalie's case. I'm not saying Ruff is solely responsible for the decline in performance of these goalies or UPL this year. But, there is zero evidence that a Lindy Ruff coached hockey team consistently executes a repeatable, structured, effective, defensive system that helps them limit chances, keep goals down, and win hockey games. Ignore this if you like. Replacing Granato with Ruff in order to ensure accountability and structure was and is a farce on the same level as Malenstyn/Lafferty/Aube-Kubel will be an ice-flipping, shut-down, game-changing, 4th line that plays 3rd line minutes. The sooner we dump the GM selling this stuff, the better. 

Edited Sunday at 06:59 PM by Archie Lee

[Brawndo]

17 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

I wonder what Dahlin would look like on a Winnepg or Washington or Colorado, All the accolades. Sucks that he's the only 1st round pick in all these years that seems to be doing anything. He probbaly misses the blondes and Fika in Sweden. 

He would be a Norris Winner