Dahlin anchors NHL’s 5th-best first pairing

[dudacek]

Athletic look based mostly on 5-on-5 goal differential.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6217351/2025/03/22/nhl-top-defense-pairs-rankings/

It’s a shame that the Sabres are clouded in negative storylines because Rasmus Dahlin’s ascension as a superstar defenseman probably deserves more league-wide recognition.

Buffalo’s top pair is crushing opponents, controlling nearly 56 percent of shot attempts and 57 percent of goals. Dahlin is clicking at a near point-per-game rate while also driving high-end defensive numbers, which is impressive considering the club’s overall defensive struggles.

Bowen Byram also deserves credit for excelling in a supporting role as Dahlin’s partner for most of the season

Edited Saturday at 04:33 PM by dudacek

[Sidc3000]

And people refuse to believe he wants out. He knows he’s being wasted on the Sabres 

Edited Saturday at 04:40 PM by Sidc3000

[LGR4GM]

14 minutes ago, Sidc3000 said:

And people refuse to believe he wants out. He knows he’s being wasted on the Sabres 

I'd support him if he left. Adams is a failed GM and Terry is the worst NA sports owner. 

[Sidc3000]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd support him if he left. Adams is a failed GM and Terry is the worst NA sports owner. 

Absolutely. I would love to see both him and Thompson go to contenders. They both deserve it and will never see it here 

[tom webster]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'd support him if he left. Adams is a failed GM and Terry is the worst NA sports owner. 

Terry isn’t far from the bottom but Woody Johnson is worst.

[GoPuckYourself]

Yeah now our goaltending is back down to dumpster fire. Had we had the 2nd half version of UPL last season we be in the playoff hunt yet there is always something with this team and Adams literally doing nothing why we losing 13 in a row is just mind boggling to say the least.

[jad1]

2 minutes ago, Sidc3000 said:

Absolutely. I would love to see both him and Thompson go to contenders. They both deserve it and will never see it here 

Me too.  Late in the Utah game, as I watched Dahlin feklessly chase down Thompson's ill-advised pass before it made it's way into the Sabres net, I thought to myself, 'these guys would be steller on a contending team.' ;)

[bunomatic]

According to Dreger Calgary may offer sheet Byram this offseason.

[Thorner]

It hurts a lot to see what we are letting slip by unutilized 

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Athletic look based mostly on 5-on-5 goal differential.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6217351/2025/03/22/nhl-top-defense-pairs-rankings/

It’s a shame that the Sabres are clouded in negative storylines because Rasmus Dahlin’s ascension as a superstar defenseman probably deserves more league-wide recognition.

Buffalo’s top pair is crushing opponents, controlling nearly 56 percent of shot attempts and 57 percent of goals. Dahlin is clicking at a near point-per-game rate while also driving high-end defensive numbers, which is impressive considering the club’s overall defensive struggles.

Bowen Byram also deserves credit for excelling in a supporting role as Dahlin’s partner for most of the season

Now, I’m not saying Dahlin and Byram are Makar and Toews. But when Colorado put Makar and Toews together and realized they had something special, they didn’t then spend a lot of time splitting them up to see if they were as good with, or if they could lift the games of, other players. They locked them up, kept them together, considered themselves blessed to have the best d-pairing in hockey, and figured out who their 2nd and 3rd pairings are.  The Sabres, on the other hand, break up their top pairing to see if they can get Samuelsson going. 

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Now, I’m not saying Dahlin and Byram are Makar and Toews. But when Colorado put Makar and Toews together and realized they had something special, they didn’t then spend a lot of time splitting them up to see if they were as good with, or if they could lift the games of, other players. They locked them up, kept them together, considered themselves blessed to have the best d-pairing in hockey, and figured out who their 2nd and 3rd pairings are.  The Sabres, on the other hand, break up their top pairing to see if they can get Samuelsson going. 

Dahlin’s pair is going to be at that level if his partner is above replacement level  

We know this because that’s the surface Byram eclipses while removed 

The thing most keeping Dahlin and Byram from being Makar and Toews is the gap between Toews and Byram

id take Dahlin and toews over Makar and Byram 

Edited Saturday at 05:47 PM by Thorner

[Archie Lee]

Just now, Thorner said:

Dahlin’s pair is going to be at that level of his partner is above replacement level  

We know this because that’s the surface Byram eclipses while removed 

To a degree. Yes, Byram is not as good without Dahlin. But not everyone is as good with Dahlin as Byram. 

[Thorner]

4 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

To a degree. Yes, Byram is not as good without Dahlin. But not everyone is as good with Dahlin as Byram. 

That extra advantage is something i’d capitalize on to the tune of a bridge deal, unless we can get someone to make a trade for him thinking he’s responsible for more of that top pair value than the value he’s providing on that pair relative to who he’s replacing. Consider how little of it he’s providing relative to Dahlin, im not sure that’s too unlikely a scenario 

likely there’s a value evaluation gap we can utilize if we want 

Edited Saturday at 05:52 PM by Thorner

[mjd1001]

11 minutes ago, Thorner said:

Dahlin’s pair is going to be at that level if his partner is above replacement level  

We know this because that’s the surface Byram eclipses while removed 

Yeah.

According to the 'fancy stats', Dahlin makes everyone better (including Bryam).  Bryam does not make Dahlin better, nor does Bryam make anyone else better.

For those who care about the deep dive numbers, Dahlin and Byram over the past 2 seasons playing together have a +3% relative corsi, +4% relative Fenwick, +6% relative shots for vs against, +12.7% relative goals for vs against, and a +1% relative scoring chances for vs against.

But ANYONE playing with Dahlin has that.  If you look at everyone else combined with Dahlin besides Byram, +5% relative corsi, +5% relative Fenwisk, +5.5% relative shots for vs against, -2% goals for vs against, +3.5% relative scoring chances for vs against.

As far as everyone else playing with Bryam without Dahlin (Bryam as the lead-guy on the pair): -4% relative corsi, -4.5% relative Fenwick, -4% relative shots for vs against, -3% relative goals for vs against, and -7% scoring chances for vs against.

So, Byram with Dahlin has a much better relative goals for, a slightly better relative shots for....but is actually worse in terms of Corsi, Fenwick, and scoring chances.  Looks like it kinda 'evens out' to me.

To me the eye test Dahlin makes everyone he plays with better.  The deep numbers pretty much say that also, and that him paired with Bryam isn't really much better than him paired with anyone else.

Edited Saturday at 05:58 PM by mjd1001

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Yeah.

For those who care about the deep dive numbers, Dahlin and Byram over the past 2 seasons playing together have a +3% relative corsi, +4% relative Fenwick, +6% relative shots for vs against, +12.7% relative goals for vs against, and a +1% relative scoring chances for vs against.

But ANYONE playing with Dahlin has that.  If you look at everyone else combined with Dahlin besides Byram, +5% relative corsi, +5% relative Fenwisk, +5.5% relative shots for vs against, -2% goals for vs against, +3.5% relative scoring chances for vs against.

So, Byram with Dahlin has a much better relative goals for, a slightly better relative shots for....but is actually worse in terms of Corsi, Fenwick, and scoring chances.  Looks like it kinda 'evens out' to me.

To me the eye test Dahlin makes everyone he plays with better.  The deep numbers pretty much say that also, and that him paired with Bryam isn't really much better than him paired with anyone else.

That’s what I mean. I think there’s some value there to be mined with him next to Dahlin, but that’s more less a last resort: you’d think we may be able to *easily* eclipse that value in a trade if there’s even a few GMs not properly evaluating the Dahlin situation 

Edited Saturday at 05:57 PM by Thorner

[Archie Lee]

46 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Yeah now our goaltending is back down to dumpster fire. Had we had the 2nd half version of UPL last season we be in the playoff hunt yet there is always something with this team and Adams literally doing nothing why we losing 13 in a row is just mind boggling to say the least.

Ruff’s post-Ryan Miller history as a head coach reveals that his teams are where goalie save percentages go to die. So I’m skeptical that any goalie we could have signed would thrive under Ruff. But, it was always going to be risky in a must win year,  to hand the net to a goalie with one good season under his belt and to have a kid and journeyman vet as the other options. The Sabres had the cap space to easily outbid Detroit for Talbot. Casey DeSmith, and Scott Wedgewood, might have been better options than Reimer, in the event we needed the back-up to play more games. The Sabres could easily have beat what the Capitals gave up to acquire Thompson (two 3rds). Adams is terrible. 

[kas23]

I just don’t get the disconnect. Dhalin anchors the 5th best pairing in the NHL, then why do we suck so much. We are 12th in GF/G. Offensively, we are not that bad. Do we really need a Dahlin for every defensive pair? Because our goaltending by GA/G and save% is garbage. We rank #1 in penalty minutes. Is this it? “Soft” teams like VGK, DAL, and EDM are at the bottom. 

[EM88]

Let us not forget how Byram did when Dahlin was hurt.

There were 8 games (7 and a 1/2 actually) where Dahlin was hurt and Bryam was given the chance to step up and lead the Defensive group without Dahlin. He was given almost all the power play time and over 25 minutes of ice time per game.

What did he do when Dahlin wasn't around?  8 games played, 0 goals, 4 assists, -7, and the team lost every game.

The losing streak was not all on him, but when given the chance to step up, he was given every chance, all the ice time he could handle, was a fixture on the first power play unit and he produced very very little.

He has talent.  It is just in a bit of last season and all of this season, he has not shown that he impacts this team in a positive way anymore than a typical, run-of-the-mill middle pair guy that can not even carry his own pairing.

Pay him big money on a long term contract at your own risk.

Edited Saturday at 06:17 PM by EM88

[Sidc3000]

1 minute ago, kas23 said:

I just don’t get the disconnect. Dhalin anchors the 5th best pairing in the NHL, then why do we suck so much. We are 12th in GF/G. Offensively, we are not that bad. Do we really need a Dahlin for every defensive pair? Because our goaltending by GA/G and save% is garbage. We rank #1 in penalty minutes. Is this it? “Soft” teams like VGK, DAL, and EDM are at the bottom. 

Yes. The 13 game losing streak, when he was out, proved it. 

[Thorner]

3 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I just don’t get the disconnect. Dhalin anchors the 5th best pairing in the NHL, then why do we suck so much. We are 12th in GF/G. Offensively, we are not that bad. Do we really need a Dahlin for every defensive pair? Because our goaltending by GA/G and save% is garbage. We rank #1 in penalty minutes. Is this it? “Soft” teams like VGK, DAL, and EDM are at the bottom. 

Overall team D comes down to the aptitude of all 23. Better than goals for to evaluate the forwards and team is goal differential. 

Sabres are 25th. Dahlin is just one man among 23

Edited Saturday at 06:11 PM by Thorner

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, kas23 said:

I just don’t get the disconnect. Dhalin anchors the 5th best pairing in the NHL, then why do we suck so much. We are 12th in GF/G. Offensively, we are not that bad. Do we really need a Dahlin for every defensive pair? Because our goaltending by GA/G and save% is garbage. We rank #1 in penalty minutes. Is this it? “Soft” teams like VGK, DAL, and EDM are at the bottom. 

Not really a disconnect at all. Dahlin is close to a supertar level D-man no matter who he plays with.  The rest of the pairings, which account for 55%-65% of the ice time, are below average.

And the forwards. Tuch and Thompson anchor a top line that is also one of the best in the league (there was a discussion about that last week I think).  The 2nd line (or the 3rd...whichever one McLeod isn't on) and the 4th lines have performed near the bottom of the league.

Add to that well below league average goaltending metrics, and there you go.

Great first pair D-man with a very good-to-great first line....and everything else below average or even worse.

Edited Saturday at 06:12 PM by mjd1001

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Not really a disconnect at all. Dahlin is close to a supertar level D-man no matter who he plays with.  The rest of the pairings, which account for 55%-65% of the ice time, are below average.

And the forwards. Tuch and Thompson anchor a top line that is also on of the best in the league.  The 2nd line (or the 3rd...whichever one McLeod isn't on) and the 4th lines have performed near the bottom of the league.

Add to that well below league average goaltending metrics, and there you go.

Great first pair D-man with a very good-to-great first line....and everything else below average.

The numbers simply bare it out. Again, 25th in goal differential.

i keep telling people this not to be snarky but to genuinely try and help: you have been mislead. Even by the Smarts of sabres twitter. They pick isolated stats they like and prop them up irrespective of the full picture: ie rampant bias. The more you shrink the data you find you be “predictive”, the less representative of the macro the endeavour is 

In addition, the stat is always like “twelfth! See! That’s top 16, what’s wrong with us?” Meanwhile it’s the high water mark 

Our rosters are always configured in an, “if everything goes right we could be ok” fashion 

Edited Saturday at 06:17 PM by Thorner

[JoeSchmoe]

If Power could learn how to actually play D like Dahlin did we could solidify our 2nd pair.

Then, if we somehow get half-decent goaltending (Levi?), we'd be could be knocking on the door of being decent. Checking the advanced stats, our goaltending has given us about 16 less saves vs league median. 

Then if we could spend to the cap and get one or two more Zuckers...

But unfortunately none of this will happen.

[kas23]

14 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Not really a disconnect at all. Dahlin is close to a supertar level D-man no matter who he plays with.  The rest of the pairings, which account for 55%-65% of the ice time, are below average.

And the forwards. Tuch and Thompson anchor a top line that is also one of the best in the league (there was a discussion about that last week I think).  The 2nd line (or the 3rd...whichever one McLeod isn't on) and the 4th lines have performed near the bottom of the league.

Add to that well below league average goaltending metrics, and there you go.

Great first pair D-man with a very good-to-great first line....and everything else below average or even worse.

It’s interesting, the first line and top D pairing playing a fairly big chunk of the game. It’s far from an even distribution. So, the remainder of the lines and D pairings must be well below average (ie barely NHL players) to bring the team down the standings to the bottom 5 worse teams. Are they truly this bad? Imagine if the rest of the team was just plain average. We’d be fighting for a playoff spot. 

[GoPuckYourself]

33 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Ruff’s post-Ryan Miller history as a head coach reveals that his teams are where goalie save percentages go to die. So I’m skeptical that any goalie we could have signed would thrive under Ruff. But, it was always going to be risky in a must win year,  to hand the net to a goalie with one good season under his belt and to have a kid and journeyman vet as the other options. The Sabres had the cap space to easily outbid Detroit for Talbot. Casey DeSmith, and Scott Wedgewood, might have been better options than Reimer, in the event we needed the back-up to play more games. The Sabres could easily have beat what the Capitals gave up to acquire Thompson (two 3rds). Adams is terrible. 

I don't know, UPL looks like the UPL of old so I'm not sure Ruff is at fault for that he seems to not make the big save when we need him to. I like Reimer's play alot and I was thinking what might have been had we switched Reimer with UPL in many of those games, probably the same result but I think Reimer has played really well.