Now What?

[dudacek]

24 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

To get Marner you are looking at $13+ million. He is a UFA and will be the top UFA if he goes to market.

He has elite hockey sense. He makes Matthews go. I’d staple him to Tage and watch Tage explode. He is great defensively and on the PK.

He would consider Buffalo for the geography he would not consider them for the giant dumpster fire the organization is.

One gets the sense that he will consider any organization that properly feeds his ego.

 

[mjd1001]

I have been reading a lot of posts in a lot of threads the last 2 days and there is so much I agree with and so much i disagree with.  Yeah, Mitch Marner would help this teams top 2 lines and make them better, but I don't think that is where this team needs the most help (Yeah, I still want him here though)

For me, where has this team gone wrong this year?  There are probably 20+ things that can be pointed out but can I narrow it down in my opinion to the top 5 or 6 things?

 

1.) Quinn and Cozens not only drastically underperforming, but actually hurting the team with their play while getting a good number of minutes

2.) Bryam only being effective when playing with Dahlin.  I think a guy with his pedigree as a top pick, and a guy you traded your previous #2 center for, needs to be able to at least be decent when paired with anyone but Dahlin. He hasn't especially as the year has gone on.

3.) Substandard Goaltending.  I know some posters say its not UPL's fault for the team he plays behind, but even with that, he has played a lot worse than last year and worse than even an average goaltender.

4.) The 4th line. It was retooled, Many of us thought it was going to be better.  I thought, great, a new 4th line, but it doesn't matter much because that line doesn't really help or hurt you much. Well, nope, not true, they have been probably the worst 4th line I can remember this team having for years.

 Malenstyn and Laffterty are a combined -23, and Kubel is in the minors.  I think we got 'spoiled' with a 4th line of Okposo and Zemgus the last few years. They didn't get scored on much..and while they could not score that well themselves (but they weren't awful), they were good at keeping the puck in the opponents zone. Not what we have now.

5.) Power not taking a noticable step foward, and Samuelsson playing but not even taking a half-step back to what he was 2 years ago.

I like many of Adams moves in the past 12 months, but I think one thing that has hurt this team is he totally missed (with or without the help/suggestions of Lindy) on retooling the 4th line.

 

Overall, I'm happy with the trade. I'm happy with the first line. Happy overall with the play of Tuch and Thompson and Dahlin.  McLeod and Peterka don't carry the team but they have been 'good enough'. Whoever they roll out there as a 3rd pair (Clifton, Bryson, Gilbert), to me they have been 'equal' to most 3rd pair guys around the league. Some parts of this team 'kinda' work. 

I really think it is those 5 things listed above that are most of the issue.

They took care of part of the 1st one by trading Cozens.  I'm not sure if they recognize the other ones, if they think the other ones actually are a problem, or if they are willing or able to do anything about them.

 

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

Just to add to my post above but with some data on the 4th line for those who like analytics. I looked the combo of Malenstyn and Lafferty this year (The most used 4th line guys) vs Zemgus and Okposo's time on the ice together the previous 2 years:

Over the last 2 previous seasons, Okposo and Zemgus on the ice together allowed 1 even strength goal every 33.8 minutes.  Malenstyn and Lafferty this year are allowing an even strenth goal ever 22 minute. HUGE difference for a 4th line.

Zemgus and Okposo playing together on the 4th line had 4 points better Corsi (Corsi for vs against as a percentage 50.4 to 46.4), 3 points better Fenwick%, 1 point better shots for vs against, almost 10 points better goals for (41.2 vs 33.3, probably the most important of all the analytics for comparing), more than 5 points better expected goals ratio, 6 points better scoring chances for vs against, 4 points better high danger, 14 points better high danger goals for vs against...

So  yeah, those are BIG time numbers. This 4th line has been bad, really really bad.  A 4th line doesn't really help you win, you just want them to not help you lose. In the past 2-3 years, the Sabres had a 4th line that didn't really hurt them. This year, the 4th line IS hurting them.

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[thewookie1]

I’d love to somehow magically make our defensive play better while maintaining our ridiculously solid 5v5 scoring rates

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, thewookie1 said:

I’d love to somehow magically make our defensive play better while maintaining our ridiculously solid 5v5 scoring rates

If you could do that, this is a playoff team.

If you want to break it down:  Fix the PP, Fix the PK (that takes care of your non-5-on-5 play). The PK has been in the middle of the league. Without some really weak goaltending on it, their PK is probably average. The PP? That is another story.  Does making one change (getting rid of statistically the worst PP forward in the league (Cozens) for a pretty good one (Norris) help that long term?)

As for making your 5-on-5 defense better. Quinn, Cozens (taken care of), Adding ONE very good D-man, and the 4th line (as I just brought up above).

[FrenchConnection44]

The team never should’ve drafted Owen Power, number one.

What they need to do now is trade him. And hope they can get a first or high 2nd for him.
 

If we had a coach who came in and said to him, “look, you’re never gonna be a great hockey player until you get some toughness inside of you. I don’t know whether you have that or not but you better get it in a hurry. Hockey is not a game for 6’6 220 pound defenseman who won’t play tough, physical hockey,” maybe he could light a fire under him. But if he’s going to play like a girl then go play volleyball   

If you draft a guy number 1 over all who is a 6’6, 215 lb defensemen, you want him to aspire to be the next Chris Pronger or Victor Hedman. Just look at Pronger’s PIM  

 

Edited 3 hours ago by FrenchConnection44

[Archie Lee]

G

20 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I have been reading a lot of posts in a lot of threads the last 2 days and there is so much I agree with and so much i disagree with.  Yeah, Mitch Marner would help this teams top 2 lines and make them better, but I don't think that is where this team needs the most help (Yeah, I still want him here though)

For me, where has this team gone wrong this year?  There are probably 20+ things that can be pointed out but can I narrow it down in my opinion to the top 5 or 6 things?

 

1.) Quinn and Cozens not only drastically underperforming, but actually hurting the team with their play while getting a good number of minutes

2.) Bryam only being effective when playing with Dahlin.  I think a guy with his pedigree as a top pick, and a guy you traded your previous #2 center for, needs to be able to at least be decent when paired with anyone but Dahlin. He hasn't especially as the year has gone on.

3.) Substandard Goaltending.  I know some posters say its not UPL's fault for the team he plays behind, but even with that, he has played a lot worse than last year and worse than even an average goaltender.

4.) The 4th line. It was retooled, Many of us thought it was going to be better.  I thought, great, a new 4th line, but it doesn't matter much because that line doesn't really help or hurt you much. Well, nope, not true, they have been probably the worst 4th line I can remember this team having for years.

 Malenstyn and Laffterty are a combined -23, and Kubel is in the minors.  I think we got 'spoiled' with a 4th line of Okposo and Zemgus the last few years. They didn't get scored on much..and while they could not score that well themselves (but they weren't awful), they were good at keeping the puck in the opponents zone. Not what we have now.

5.) Power not taking a noticable step foward, and Samuelsson playing but not even taking a half-step back to what he was 2 years ago.

I like many of Adams moves in the past 12 months, but I think one thing that has hurt this team is he totally missed (with or without the help/suggestions of Lindy) on retooling the 4th line.

 

Overall, I'm happy with the trade. I'm happy with the first line. Happy overall with the play of Tuch and Thompson and Dahlin.  McLeod and Peterka don't carry the team but they have been 'good enough'. Whoever they roll out there as a 3rd pair (Clifton, Bryson, Gilbert), to me they have been 'equal' to most 3rd pair guys around the league. Some parts of this team 'kinda' work. 

I really think it is those 5 things listed above that are most of the issue.

They took care of part of the 1st one by trading Cozens.  I'm not sure if they recognize the other ones, if they think the other ones actually are a problem, or if they are willing or able to do anything about them.

 

Great post. Two comments.

1). I’ve been a defender of UPL’s, but I’m not letting him off the hook. He has to be better. No question his poor play has been a significant factor. 

2). The one thing I would add to your list, is Ruff. The big selling points for Ruff (aside from the history), were accountability and structure. There have been no signs of increased accountability. For what it’s worth, I never really thought it was an issue. I think the team performed about as reasonably could be expected under Granato. The team’s failures under Granato, were related to their shortcomings (experience, grit, etc.) and not to a lack of commitment, caring or being accountable. As for structure, this was always a myth when it came to Ruff. Last year’s Devils were a great example. Yeah they had injuries and goaltending issues (all Ruff’s recent teams have goaltending issues), but if he had established anything close to the sort of “structure” that we have been told he establishes, the Devils would not have sunk from 3rd overall to 23rd. Teams with “structure” don’t implode in that fashion. 

[LGR4GM]

18 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

The team never should’ve drafted Owen Power, number one.

What they need to do now is trade him. And hope they can get a first or high 2nd for him.
 

If we had a coach who came in and said to him, “look, you’re never gonna be a great hockey player until you get some toughness inside of you. I don’t know whether you have that or not but you better get it in a hurry. Hockey is not a game for 6’6 220 pound defenseman who won’t play tough, physical hockey,” maybe he could light a fire under him. But if he’s going to play like a girl then go play volleyball   

If you draft a guy number 1 over all who is a 6’6, 215 lb defensemen, you want him to aspire to be the next Chris Pronger or Victor Hedman. Just look at Pronger’s PIM  

 

Owen power was never ever going to be Pronger. I ***** tried for months to explain it to this board but it was all "he's tall! We need tall guys!" 

Meanwhile Seth Jarvis, Marco Rossi, and Zach Benson continue to help their teams win hockey games. Eklund is gonna be really fun next year too. But hey! Owen Power is tall and you can't teach size!

If I sound pissed, it's because I am. 

[Jorcus]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Just to add to my post above but with some data on the 4th line for those who like analytics. I looked the combo of Malenstyn and Lafferty this year (The most used 4th line guys) vs Zemgus and Okposo's time on the ice together the previous 2 years:

Over the last 2 previous seasons, Okposo and Zemgus on the ice together allowed 1 even strength goal every 33.8 minutes.  Malenstyn and Lafferty this year are allowing an even strenth goal ever 22 minute. HUGE difference for a 4th line.

Zemgus and Okposo playing together on the 4th line had 4 points better Corsi (Corsi for vs against as a percentage 50.4 to 46.4), 3 points better Fenwick%, 1 point better shots for vs against, almost 10 points better goals for (41.2 vs 33.3, probably the most important of all the analytics for comparing), more than 5 points better expected goals ratio, 6 points better scoring chances for vs against, 4 points better high danger, 14 points better high danger goals for vs against...

So  yeah, those are BIG time numbers. This 4th line has been bad, really really bad.  A 4th line doesn't really help you win, you just want them to not help you lose. In the past 2-3 years, the Sabres had a 4th line that didn't really hurt them. This year, the 4th line IS hurting them.

 

I don't have the numbers but I think the dynamic of the 4th line must tilt more positive when Krebs is playing center. I can pick apart a lot of Krebs game but his best asset is the forcheck and when Malenstyn and Lafferty are on the ice with Krebs they seem to be effective. They do need to finish more chances but they often get the puck deep and at least force a save for a line change and a face off. In their own end they are about as bad as everyone else on the team. I think that is more about structure than talent. 

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Owen power was never ever going to be Pronger. I ***** tried for months to explain it to this board but it was all "he's tall! We need tall guys!" 

Meanwhile Seth Jarvis, Marco Rossi, and Zach Benson continue to help their teams win hockey games. Eklund is gonna be really fun next year too. But hey! Owen Power is tall and you can't teach size!

If I sound pissed, it's because I am. 

I don’t know man, I got 6 pages into this thread and didn’t see a single guy arguing with your takes, or touting him as some kind of thumper.

Not saying they weren’t out there at some point, but it wasn’t a widespread thing. Anyone paying attention knew he wasn’t Pronger. 🤷

 

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I don’t know man, I got 6 pages into this thread and didn’t see a single guy arguing with your takes, or touting him as some kind of thumper.

Not saying they weren’t out there at some point, but it wasn’t a widespread thing. Anyone paying attention knew he wasn’t Pronger. 🤷

 

Check the draft thread. I got a ton of push back saying he shouldn't be the 1 overall. And a ton of it was about how he's 6'6" and you can't teach size. 

Edited 1 hour ago by LGR4GM