Sabres Trade Dylan Cozens/Dennis Gilbert and 2026 2nd Round Pick to Ottawa for Josh Norris and Bernard Docker

[Pimlach]

11 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

And Bernard Docker. For a throw-in he's been a revelation at defense. He's smart and physical. Just what or backline needed. As for Norris, let him heal and see what we have next year.

I like Bernard Docker but a revelation at defense?  Just what they needed?    Your standards are pretty low. 

He has been solid and steady so far.  Has a more physical game than Jokiharju and Bryson, but that is not saying much  He projects as a 5/6/7 type of defenseman, but on this team he can break top 4.  

[That Aud Smell]

21 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

I saw this, looked at it, looked at it again. I'm still not sure what's being presented. What does the card on the left represent? What does the card on the right represent? Also, both cards are a 3-year weighted average? If so, how does (can) a small sample size in Ottawa affect the overall numbers?

[PromoTheRobot]

49 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

I like Bernard Docker but a revelation at defense?  Just what they needed?    Your standards are pretty low. 

He has been solid and steady so far.  Has a more physical game than Jokiharju and Bryson, but that is not saying much  He projects as a 5/6/7 type of defenseman, but on this team he can break top 4.  

I think you must be getting a drink or in the bathroom when B-D is erasing players. You gloss over his physical play when it's exactly what the Sabres needed more of.

Edited Wednesday at 02:18 PM by PromoTheRobot

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

I like Bernard Docker but a revelation at defense?  Just what they needed?    Your standards are pretty low. 

He has been solid and steady so far.  Has a more physical game than Jokiharju and Bryson, but that is not saying much  He projects as a 5/6/7 type of defenseman, but on this team he can break top 4.  

Ok, I'm not upset with his play, but I have yet to see him be much more than an average 3rd pair guy.  I'm looking, and I'm hoping, but I just don't see enough signs that he is anything more than that yet.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, That Aud Smell said:

I saw this, looked at it, looked at it again. I'm still not sure what's being presented. What does the card on the left represent? What does the card on the right represent? Also, both cards are a 3-year weighted average? If so, how does (can) a small sample size in Ottawa affect the overall numbers?

The percentages are percentiles for those categories. The weighted average, I believe, gives more weight to the more recent games, so you are somewhat right, that we don't have a big enough sample. I think the important part though is how bad Cozens was for the Sabres. His EV defensive impact was atrocious. I also think it shows he is a league average shooter, he isn't a sniper at all. 

[DarthEbriate]

47 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I think you must be getting a drink or in the bathroom when B-D is erasing players. You gloss over his physical play when it's exactly what the Sabres needed more of.

Bernard-Docker is a pretty good shot blocker, as advertised pre-trade. What he does do better than Jokiharju is a bit of stick 'um. He holds with the opponent longer and ties them up just a fraction longer on dump-ins. That's important for a bottom pair guy who isn't going to get PP time. The issue with Joki is that he was good-not-great defensively, and his "puck-moving" side was exceeded by three top-4 picks on the team so he wouldn't be able to showcase that with any partner. He wasn't the right fit and that's on Adams for not trading him as soon as Byram was acquired.

But is JBD all-around more physical? No. This season, JBD has fewer hits per 60 minutes than Joker. Joki throws 3.072 hits/60 minutes to JBD's 2.1. And JBD hasn't registered a hit in the last 6 games. He does have the one sturdy hit/tackle that resulted in a fight --- but 9 times out of ten there's no fight there. Dewar was a recently-acquired-via-trade energy 4th liner getting hit in a 7-2 game and trying to make something happen.

(For their careers Joki is 3.462 hits/60 to JBD's 3.386 hits/60 -- so it's closer, but the edge is still to Joker.)

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I saw this, looked at it, looked at it again. I'm still not sure what's being presented. What does the card on the left represent? What does the card on the right represent? Also, both cards are a 3-year weighted average? If so, how does (can) a small sample size in Ottawa affect the overall numbers?

I agree it wasn't presented well, I tried to figure out the same thing.  My guess is that, after a hot start, Dylan Cozens is basically playing the same way/just as effective in Ottawa as in Buffalo.

Looking at his analytics (50 being 'even', anything above 50 good, below 50 bad...)

Cozens with Buffalo this year: 50.8 Corsi, 49.2 Fenwick, 49.7 shots, 47.5 expected goals, 48.9 scoring chances, 44.2 high danger chances, 41.7 high danger goals.

Cozens so far with Ottawa: 44.5 Corsi, 44.8 Fenwick, 45.9 shots, 40.4 expected goals, 41.3 scoring chances, 45.1 high danger chances, 50 high danger goals.

Those analytics are pretty close, mostly negative with both teams.

In terms of his individual production (82 game pace for comparison:

-With Buffalo 82 game pace this year: 15 goals, 27 assists, -17,  7.9% shooting percentage.

-With Ottawa 82 game pace this year:  14 goals, 33 assists, -9,  7.7% shooting percentage.

Since the trade and he left Buffalo and joined Ottawa: Sabres: 11w-5L (112.75 point pace).  Senators: 11w-6L (106 point pace)

His 17 games with Ottawa are a very small sample size in the grand scheme of things.  One good game makes his 'projected' numbers look a lot better. One bad game makes them look a lot worse...but....

As of now...He is who he is. He is in Ottawa who he was in Buffalo.  His numbers are close. He has 'average' statistical giveaways but they are often very costly ones with both teams. One team has not benefited more than the other (if anything, they both got better but Buffalo has gotten "more better" than Ottawa, especially considering Norris hasn't played).  Maybe he'll have a great playoffs, or will change his game with an offseason in Ottawa. But as of now, not much has changed with his play to this moment.

Edited Wednesday at 03:38 PM by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

The Sabres traded their supposed #2 center and somehow are better even though the 2c they traded for isn't even playing. What a strange world hockey is. 

[mjd1001]

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres traded their supposed #2 center and somehow are better even though the 2c they traded for isn't even playing. What a strange world hockey is. 

As many of us have said, Cozens was a net negative on the team.  He caused more goals against and he got his linemates less involve/engaged than an average #2/#3 center.

His skating, his hitting, his aggressive forcheck....it wasn't enough to even 'even out' his negatives.

Since he has been gone what happened with his ice time?  Kulich, McLeod, and Krebs have gotten more.  I would say the his 16 or so minutes are being 'played better' by those 3 guys than by him.

Edited Wednesday at 03:46 PM by mjd1001

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

I think you must be getting a drink or in the bathroom when B-D is erasing players. You gloss over his physical play when it's exactly what the Sabres needed more of.

Agree that the Sabres defense needs more physical play and he is helping a bit in that area.   

I am watching closely and right now he looks like he will be a good 3rd pair guy.   Is his ceiling that of a solid second pair guy?  Maybe.  He is a first rounder after all.  He is young enough to earn the opportunity.  

If he someday becomes a stud top 4 then we win the Cozens trades no matter what Norris does.  I am not ready to anoint him that just yet.  

 

Edited Wednesday at 03:45 PM by Pimlach

[Pimlach]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres traded their supposed #2 center and somehow are better even though the 2c they traded for isn't even playing. What a strange world hockey is. 

Classic addition by subtraction.   McLeod, Kulich, and Krebs are all performing better with the minutes that Cozens was getting.  

[Thorner]

15 hours ago, dudacek said:

It is different, because my point still stands at 1 goal 5 assists and -7 and theirs still does not.

 

I don’t think so. It’s pretty close to 22-23 cozens considering how wonky plus minus is 

you arbitrarily chose the 11 game framing to begin with. 

 

17gp 3G 7A 10P -2 

Is not far from 22-23 cozens to my eye. Granted he’d need more like 13 points instead of 10. But considering sample size i see their framing as generous but not egregious 

Edited Wednesday at 07:54 PM by Thorner

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Classic addition by subtraction.   McLeod, Kulich, and Krebs are all performing better with the minutes that Cozens was getting.  

Classic! Classic sabres 

Always outsmarting other teams and adding by subtracting 

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, I'm not upset with his play, but I have yet to see him be much more than an average 3rd pair guy.  I'm looking, and I'm hoping, but I just don't see enough signs that he is anything more than that yet.

You accurately described where he should be pegged as a player. He's a third or even a fourth pairing player. Is he an upgrade from Joki or Bryson? Yes.  

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, Thorner said:

Classic! Classic sabres 

Always outsmarting other teams and adding by subtracting 

Your comments make no sense at all.  

Why all the negative emojis related to pretty much any comment on Cozens comments?   Rather than denigrating or laughing at other people comments, what is your opinion of Cozens?  Tell us what you think.  

Edited Wednesday at 09:03 PM by Pimlach

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Yuo comments make no sense at all.  

Why all the negative emojis related to pretty much any comment on Cozens comments?   Rather than denigrating or laughing at other people comments, what is your opinion of Cozens?  Tell us what you think.  

I’ve said it a million times. The last time I went on about a topic wookie told me to leave the board (in fact I’m frequently frequently told I’m posting too much) - have you seen my post count? Who’s around here is higher? I don’t think your premise is very accurate 

the emojis can speak too, it’s what they are there for, no? 

Edited Wednesday at 07:31 PM by Thorner

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, Thorner said:

I’ve said it a million times. The last time I went on about a topic wookie told me to leave the board - have you seen my post count? Who’s around here is higher? I don’t think your premise is very accurate 

Post count....oh brother. 🙄

[Thorner]

10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Post count....oh brother. 🙄

Do you understand context? 

He’s telling me to post more. I said I post enough 

you can’t even process the fact im taking a shot at my OWN post count. Like, you think I’m pumping my own tires - that’s what you take from it 

why interject yourself? Because you don’t like the fact i give your posts emojis sometimes? We both know that’s why. I commend the fact your average post length is a literal novel (not an insult) but I’m not responding in kind with a deep dive every time, over the same old data. sorry)

Edited Wednesday at 07:41 PM by Thorner

[mjd1001]

8 minutes ago, Thorner said:

Do you understand context? 

He’s telling me to post more. I said I post enough 

you can’t even process the fact im taking a shot at my OWN post count. Like, you think I’m pumping my own tires - that’s what you take from it 

why interject yourself? Because you don’t like the fact i give your posts emojis sometimes? We both know that’s why 

Because I agree with him.  I have posts where I share my opinions on Cozens, many times replying and engaging due to replying to others comments, and yet I'm curious as to the downpost emojis from you.  I do what to know, what is your opinion of Cozens? What kind of player do you think he is, was it wrong for the Sabres to give up on him?  I keep seeing the 'dislikes', but I haven't seen you put your stake in the ground definitevely. I'd like to know, when someone disagrees with me or anyone else, where they actually stand?

Its a lot easier to disagree with someone, while leaving saracastic posts or ones that are often vague.  Thats fine, its a message board, but if you are going to disagree with me or someone else on a topic, I'd just like to know the specific opinion where the differences lie.  

Edited Wednesday at 07:40 PM by mjd1001

[Thorner]

8 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Because I agree with him.  I have posts where I share my opinions on Cozens, many times replying and engaging due to replying to others comments, and yet I'm curious as to the downpost emojis from you.  I do what to know, what is your opinion of Cozens? What kind of player do you think he is, was it wrong for the Sabres to give up on him?  I keep seeing the 'dislikes', but I haven't seen you put your stake in the ground definitevely. I'd like to know, when someone disagrees with me or anyone else, where they actually stand?

Its a lot easier to disagree with someone, while leaving saracastic posts or ones that are often vague.  Thats fine, its a message board, but if you are going to disagree with me or someone else on a topic, I'd just like to know the specific opinion where the differences lie.  

I guess you guys are just losing me with the premise. You are such a thorough poster I’m surprised you don’t already know my opinion on this? 

have I posted about it in length a billion times: yes 

am i now frequently also resorting to emojis when I see points I have already responded to (that’s the key): also yes 

You already know what I am gojng to say 

It’s short form 

I understand you like to lay it all out, long form, every time, re-iterated: I do that too sometimes. But when it’s been said a million times the search function works too. This is why I mentioned post count so you’d know I wasn’t being disingenuous: i do in fact post my feelings out a lot it was a fact not a brag of supposed quality. I ACTUALLY have posted about it a zillion times I’m not being difficult 

Edited Wednesday at 07:48 PM by Thorner

[mjd1001]

13 minutes ago, Thorner said:

I guess you guys are just losing me with the premise. You are such a thorough poster I’m surprised you don’t already know my opinion on this? 

have I posted about it in length a billion times: yes 

am i now frequently also resorting to emojis when I see points I have already responded to (that’s the key): also yes 

You already know what I am gojng to say 

It’s short form 

I understand you like to lay it all out, long form, every time, re-iterated: I do that too sometimes. But when it’s been said a million times the search function works too. This is why I mentioned post count so you’d know I wasn’t being disingenuous: i do in fact post my feelings out a lot it was a fact not a brag of supposed quality. I ACTUALLY have posted about it a zillion times I’m not being difficult 

Sorry, maybe my memory is short...or I read too much of this forum....but I sometimes have difficulty keeping opinions of some users differernt from others.  I respond to what is in front of me. If I search for the opinions of every user that I reply to...I'd be spending more time searching users and their opinions than I do at my job. 

 I know you don't like Adams and you think that the franchise moves forward when he is gone.  I know you think Bryam is over-rated by many users....and I agree with that.  I honestly do not know your exact opinion of Cozens as a player. And I stopped using the search function on here a long time ago....If a converstaion is currently happening I will re-iterate my point for those who may not know what it is...rather than forcing them to search, as that can be very time consuming.

Edited Wednesday at 07:57 PM by mjd1001

[That Aud Smell]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I sometimes have difficulty keeping opinions of some users differernt from others. 

man, i feel this. i almost never keep people's opinions straight (or recall them).

[Thorner]

No Eichel association? I’m surprised

Ya I have a pretty thorough indexing of poster thoughts, one of the downfalls of a near eidetic memory. I have no idea if the franchise moves forward once Adams is canned. My stance on Adams is rooted in the fact he should be fired because he demonstrably deserves to be fired. For performance. To me, I struggle to see why further justification would be needed: but we’ve had this discussion. You have mentioned it will only result in more of the same if the rest of the bones of the operation remain and I have reiterated multiple times that fact doesn’t dissuade me from making the right choice: two wrongs don’t make a right. I would take a level of satisfaction merely from Adams being held to appropriate standards 

having standards might seem trivial to some but we don’t have anything else. The team doesn’t win. They don’t care about the fans. I do. The fans deserve action 

12 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Sorry, maybe my memory is short...or I read too much of this forum....but I sometimes have difficulty keeping opinions of some users differernt from others.  I KNOW you don't like Adams and you think that the franchise moves forward when he is gone.  I KNOW you think Bryam is over-rated by many users....and I agree with that.  I honestly do not know your exact opinion of Cozens as a player. And I stopped using the search function on here a long time ago....If a converstaion is currently happening I will re-iterate my point for those who may not know what it is...rather than forcing them to search, as that can be very time consuming.

 

Edited Wednesday at 08:06 PM by Thorner

[Thorner]

On 4/8/2025 at 2:27 PM, Thorner said:

Whether or not the “pendulum has shifted” is far less relevant than their willingness to bet on it, in spite of countless evidence to the contrary. The critical error is acting like it’s not a manual transition and decision: the first time the pendulum swing will be real is when they approach the offseason as if it is not 

you can hope for the best but you can’t plan for it: if they address the roster reflective of statistical likelihoods that it hasn’t turned a corner, they’ll go a long way towards ensuring that it did

They shape the narrative from here: that’s the catch

whether or not the corner was turned is both Schrödinger’s cat, and paradoxical: it can be either, we haven’t chosen yet 

@mjd1001

As for cozens specifically I’ll just reiterate the above

The sabres have gone through very good stretches with cozens 

they have been through good stretches without 

the sabres couldn’t find a way to win without *mattias samuelsson* a couple seasons ago. Remember that stat? Small sample sizes are exceptionally volatile. Mostly what we are seeing is correlation and not causation and thinking we can properly ***** through that murkiness is a fools errand. The larger the sample size the better

the salient point: it’s not addition by subtraction. We aren’t better. We have the opportunity to be if we are aggressive in the offseason. almost all of my efforts on this board currently are centred around pushing back against the idea of approaching the roster in a way that hopes or assumes the best 

assume it’s all folly. Assume it’s a sham. Assume you need to do a lot to make the playoffs. What on earth is the benefit of doing the opposite 

Edited Wednesday at 08:18 PM by Thorner

[Thorner]

as*ess being blocked is funny