Sabres have the 6th-best 1st line in the NHL

[dudacek]

I’ve been thinking that lost in this painful season has been the fact that Tage Thompson has been having a fine year.

Apparently it’s been better than I thought.

The Athletic has published a piece ranking the NHL’s best first lines based on 5-on-5 goals for and against differential over 60.

As the thread says, Buffalo ranks 6th.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6160282/2025/02/27/nhl-top-lines-2024-2025-analysis/

Buffalo Sabres

It is almost hard to believe the Sabres rank this high and are still nowhere close to the playoff race.

Buffalo’s first line has piled up 3.91 goals for per 60, which is the second-highest rate among all top lines. Tage Thompson’s huge bounce-back has been the main driver — he leads the NHL with 22 five-on-five goals despite having played several fewer games than the players right behind him.

Thompson’s linemates have fluctuated — Alex Tuch, JJ Peterka, Jason Zucker and Jiri Kulich have all gotten looks — but most have supported him well.

The Sabres’ underwhelming second line (Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn have had miserable years), woeful 27th-ranked power play, poor defensive play, subpar goaltending and below-average penalty kill are some of the reasons the club is so far out of the playoff conversation despite its top line clicking at a strong level.

 

Edited February 27 by dudacek

[inkman]

This and $5 will get you a nice coffee 

[bunomatic]

The sixth best first line in hockey is nothing to sneeze at but there’s the problem. It takes so much more to build a team.

Edited February 27 by bunomatic

[inkman]

1 minute ago, bunomatic said:

The sixth best first line in hockey is nothing to sneeze at but there’s the problem. It takes so much more to build a team.

[Slack_in_MA]

[mjd1001]

Not too surprising to me at all.

I posted this yesterday about Tage, but he is the best in the league in even strength goals per 60.  Tops. No one is more dangerous goal scoring even strength than him. And that is even with him missing a few games and playing a few coming back from an injury.

The issue with this team is the production/lack of defense so far this year form Cozens and Quinn. That is most of it.

The rest of the team minus those 2, they are positive in goal differential, their low level and high level metrics are mostly positive. 

When Cozens DOES play even a little better (the last few weeks) the team has won 5 of 6.

Tage is an elite goal scorer.  This team IS a playoff level team when Cozens doesn't play, or if/when Cozens actually plays with his head on straight.

[DarthEbriate]

I'd be curious to see how the top 10 first lines compare in PP%. One-line teams can make it to the playoffs regularly, but that top line is probably also dangerous with the man advantage.

[Doohicksie]

46 minutes ago, inkman said:

This and $5 will get you a nice coffee 

Have you been to a Starbucks lately?

[inkman]

7 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

Have you been to a Starbucks lately?

No I make my coffee at home like a grown ass man 

[Archie Lee]

Tage is our Kaprizov. Dahlin is a stud. There are lots of good pieces here. 

The Minnesota Wild have almost $15 million in dead cap. They are currently tied for 7th overall. Marcus Johansson is a middle-6 winger for them.  

It cannot be overstated how badly our GM misfired on his roster construction and coaching decisions this past off-season. 

[DarthEbriate]

4 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Tage is our Kaprizov. Dahlin is a stud. There are lots of good pieces here. 

The Minnesota Wild have almost $15 million in dead cap. They are currently tied for 7th overall. Marcus Johansson is a middle-6 winger for them.  

It cannot be overstated how badly our GM misfired on his roster construction and coaching decisions this past off-season. 

Minnesota is an odd case. Yes, the Parise/Suter buyouts destroyed the cap, but they're still a veteran team and all their kids are hitting this season.

• Boldy is finally playing consistent and looks like a 1W (his contract kicked in this season). It'd be like if Cozens' breakout season had been the start of an upward trend instead of any regression.
• Rossi has reached his potential as a top-6 center while on his ELC (for comparison, this would be like Kulich playing his best hockey and in the top 6 from day one this season).
• And Faber...  Faber was on the top pairing for Team USA by ice-time with Slavin in both games against Canada (his contract doesn't kick in until next season when he'll make slightly more than Power). And that ice-time was warranted and mirrors his play on the Wild all season.

Beyond Faber, their defense is very mature and don't forget Spurgeon's return to the lineup this season.

[PerreaultForever]

What is our "top line"? Is that with Kulich or Tuch? Is Thompson center or winger? 

Best is always a point of argument. When Boston had the perfection line (Bergeron-Marchand-Pasternak) it was "perfection" because they could score AND defend. So in this ranking I'd be interested to see how these lines perform when they go strength against strength and how well they keep pucks out of the net as well as scoring goals. 

There's no doubting this team has offensive talent. The questions are always about roster construction. 

[EM88]

4 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Tage is our Kaprizov. Dahlin is a stud. There are lots of good pieces here. 

The Minnesota Wild have almost $15 million in dead cap. They are currently tied for 7th overall. Marcus Johansson is a middle-6 winger for them.  

It cannot be overstated how badly our GM misfired on his roster construction and coaching decisions this past off-season. 

They do not have 2 players like Quinn and Cozens that have literally sunk the team by themselves.  It is amazing to me how the current Sabres are a different, and much better team when those 2 are not on the ice compared to when they are.  Buffalo more often than not outplays, and for sure outscores opponents when it is the other 21 players and not those 2 on the ice this year.

[PickaPecaPickles]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I’ve been thinking that lost in this painful season has been the fact that Tage Thompson has been having a fine year.

Apparently it’s been better than I thought.

The Athletic has published a piece ranking the NHL’s best first lines based on 5-on-5 goals for and against differential over 60.

As the thread says, Buffalo ranks 6th.

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6160282/2025/02/27/nhl-top-lines-2024-2025-analysis/

Buffalo Sabres

It is almost hard to believe the Sabres rank this high and are still nowhere close to the playoff race.

Buffalo’s first line has piled up 3.91 goals for per 60, which is the second-highest rate among all top lines. Tage Thompson’s huge bounce-back has been the main driver — he leads the NHL with 22 five-on-five goals despite having played several fewer games than the players right behind him.

Thompson’s linemates have fluctuated — Alex Tuch, JJ Peterka, Jason Zucker and Jiri Kulich have all gotten looks — but most have supported him well.

The Sabres’ underwhelming second line (Dylan Cozens and Jack Quinn have had miserable years), woeful 27th-ranked power play, poor defensive play, subpar goaltending and below-average penalty kill are some of the reasons the club is so far out of the playoff conversation despite its top line clicking at a strong level.

 

I mentioned in a game thread some weeks ago that I was impressed with his all-around game now--he's becoming a complete player.

[dudacek]

13 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

What is our "top line"? Is that with Kulich or Tuch? Is Thompson center or winger? 

Best is always a point of argument. When Boston had the perfection line (Bergeron-Marchand-Pasternak) it was "perfection" because they could score AND defend. So in this ranking I'd be interested to see how these lines perform when they go strength against strength and how well they keep pucks out of the net as well as scoring goals. 

There's no doubting this team has offensive talent. The questions are always about roster construction. 

It's a statistical evaluation built around the team's linchpin forward. From the article:

We’ll begin by identifying every team’s No. 1 center as a proxy for the first line and then examining the results when that player is on the ice. There will be exceptions for teams whose top center has moved up and down the lineup, as opposed to staying fixed on the first line, or has missed significant time with injury. In those cases, we chose a winger to represent his team’s top-line minutes (e.g. Kirill Marchenko for Columbus, Mitch Marner for Toronto, David Pastrnak for Boston, etc).

To measure performance, we’ll look at the goals for and against differential when that first line is deployed at five-on-five. As an example, it means we’re looking at how many goals Edmonton scores and how many it allows with Connor McDavid on the ice at even strength.

So both offence and defence. It's 'best' in terms of how much the line has outscored the opposition on a per 60 basis.

There's a built-in assumption that these are the lines the opposing coach is most concerned about and generally trying to match up against.

 

[dudacek]

[ska-T Palmtown]

5 minutes ago, dudacek said:

23-25 bring me an enormous amount of joy

This also makes it official, right? Tage Thompson is the #6 center in the league. Done. 😉 

Edited February 27 by ska-T Palmtown

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, PickaPecaPickles said:

I mentioned in a game thread some weeks ago that I was impressed with his all-around game now--he's becoming a complete player.

There are some fans who are a little late to acknowledge that. He isn't perfect, but when he does make a mistake they'll jump all over him "Look! he's bad defensively!"

Very few players make no mistakes. But honestly, he is at least average in terms of not makign mistakes, but his size disrupts passing lanes and causes issues for other teams in the neutral zone in ways we don't always notice.

Overall, Tage is average-to-good without the puck, and with the puck he is an elite NHL scorer.  At $7m per yer, IF he can stay relatively healthy, one of the best bargains in the league.

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

It's a statistical evaluation built around the team's linchpin forward. From the article:

We’ll begin by identifying every team’s No. 1 center as a proxy for the first line and then examining the results when that player is on the ice. There will be exceptions for teams whose top center has moved up and down the lineup, as opposed to staying fixed on the first line, or has missed significant time with injury. In those cases, we chose a winger to represent his team’s top-line minutes (e.g. Kirill Marchenko for Columbus, Mitch Marner for Toronto, David Pastrnak for Boston, etc).

To measure performance, we’ll look at the goals for and against differential when that first line is deployed at five-on-five. As an example, it means we’re looking at how many goals Edmonton scores and how many it allows with Connor McDavid on the ice at even strength.

So both offence and defence. It's 'best' in terms of how much the line has outscored the opposition on a per 60 basis.

There's a built-in assumption that these are the lines the opposing coach is most concerned about and generally trying to match up against.

 

Or they could just simplify this and not call it the 'best lines' in the league based on one player...but just use the exact same metrics and rank the best players.

[EM88]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

To measure performance, we’ll look at the goals for and against differential when that first line is deployed at five-on-five. As an example, it means we’re looking at how many goals Edmonton scores and how many it allows with Connor McDavid on the ice at even strength.

So both offence and defence. It's 'best' in terms of how much the line has outscored the opposition on a per 60 basis.

 

Using those metrics 5 on 5 individually, from naturalstatrick.come up to today's date, the Sabres centers:

Tage Thompson: +10

Ryan McLeod:  +9

Dylan Cozens:  -11

Peyton Krebs:  -1

These are overall numbers, not adjusted per 60 as they did in the article. Just raw numbers.

Edited February 27 by EM88

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, EM88 said:

Using those metrics 5 on 5 individually, from naturalstatrick.come up to today's date, the Sabres centers:

Tage Thompson: +10

Ryan McLeod:  +9

Dylan Cozens:  -11

Peyton Krebs:  -1

These are overall numbers, not adjusted per 60 as they did in the article. Just raw numbers.

These numbers I think are some of the best 'single number' metrics that determine how much you contribute to your team winning games (positive number) or how much your play contributes to losses (negative number).  Of course, these are raw numbers...so situation isn't taken into consideration....but overall they provide a good snapshot as to who helps you win and who causes you to lose.

For this far into the season...+10 is a very good number,-11 is....terrible.

The Sabres have won 6 of the last 7, and in those games, Cozens was either even, or a plus in this category every single of those last 7 games.  The team is a good team simply when Cozens doesn't 'suck'.  If he can turn his game around, or if he is removed from the team entirely (traded), as much as it seems so simple....all evidence is the team is automatically a MUCH better team this year.

Edited February 27 by mjd1001

[Pimlach]

23 hours ago, Archie Lee said:

Tage is our Kaprizov. Dahlin is a stud. There are lots of good pieces here. 

The Minnesota Wild have almost $15 million in dead cap. They are currently tied for 7th overall. Marcus Johansson is a middle-6 winger for them.  

It cannot be overstated how badly our GM misfired on his roster construction and coaching decisions this past off-season. 

100%.  

Adam’s is very conservative, to the point of making no progress in the standings.   In 5 years he built a bottom 5 team.  His record should get him fired.  

[Pimlach]

23 hours ago, Doohicksie said:

Have you been to a Starbucks lately?

He said a nice coffee.  Starbucks is oily sweet sludge.  

[Doohicksie]

44 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

He said a nice coffee.  Starbucks is oily sweet sludge.  

Right, but any coffee shop is charging more than $5 for a coffee these days.  Even diners are charging $4 for a plain black coffee.

[Sidc3000]

On 2/27/2025 at 10:57 AM, Archie Lee said:

It cannot be overstated how badly our GM misfired on his roster construction and coaching decisions this past off-season. 

He didn’t misfire. This is his plan. He doesn’t care about how long it will take no matter what he says. It’s all about long term financials 

[gilbert11]

On 2/27/2025 at 12:49 PM, EM88 said:

They do not have 2 players like Quinn and Cozens that have literally sunk the team by themselves.  It is amazing to me how the current Sabres are a different, and much better team when those 2 are not on the ice compared to when they are.  Buffalo more often than not outplays, and for sure outscores opponents when it is the other 21 players and not those 2 on the ice this year.

The stats back this up. Cozens and Quinn have the worst +/- numbers on the team.