GDT: Rangers @ Sabres, Feb 22, 2025 - 5:30PM, MSG 📺, WGR550 📻 🎙

[LGR4GM]

 

 

Sabres need to trust their analytics team more.

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, Big Guava said:

How do you subtract a 13 game losing streak as if it never happened?

Somehow... Sheevyn the 13-game losing streak returned!

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't think the original poster wanted to say to subtract it...as a matter of fact he referenced it.  He said something like...play close to .500 hockey, then go into a bit tailspin, then play .500 after it.

If they had gone 6-6-1 instead of 0-10-3, they'd be one point out of a playoff spot.

If 6-6-1 in 13 good? Nope, it's an 82-point pace. But it's the difference between selling off Zucker and Greenway (and Jokiharju) at the deadline and promoting Amerks vs. buying at the deadline and going for it. None of the teams at 62-61 points in the standings now should be afraid of each other (DET, OTT, BOS, CBJ). Buy at the deadline and go get that playoff experience. The Sabres should be there, but when they hit the skids early in their "playoffs or bust" year, their GM did nothing.

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

-Greenway AND Zucker being in the lineup.

-Tage and Dahlin both looking healthy and their play/production being at all-pro/all-star levels.

-Cozens ice time the last 6 games being below his season average, and McLeod starting to get more ice time.

Now, it looks like if you get those things this team plays a lot better. The questions of course:

--If good veteran play is so important, why didn't they bring in another one when they have the money?

--If Dahlin getting hurt can derail the entire team so badly, why not use that money to bring in another Vet d-man?

--Why does it take every coaching staff so long to realize Cozen's limitations...and even they why is he the first one get 'gets minutes back' when someone is hurt?

 

I have made the point (and so have many others) that making a few more judicial moves in the offseason that brought it would have made a significant difference that would have sustained this team when facing turbulence. Instead of losing confidence when facing adversity, as they did in that ignominious non-winning streak, the team would have had enough maturity to deal with setbacks. 

The GM felt that the youngster laden roster was on an upward trajectory. So he was complacent in addressing the roster misconstruction. What is well known in all sports is that there is not always a smooth and even trajectory for young players. There are advances and setbacks. That's the norm.  Was it a money consideration or miscalculation on his part? Probably both factors came into play. And what irritates me to no end is that what was needed to be added was very attainable and manageable to do. 

separate note: I have a much different view on Cozens than you do. There is a good chance that he will be dealt. And it wouldn't surprise me that when wearing another uniform he would perform much better. He needs to be on the wing with a good center. He's being mishandled here. 

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Somehow... Sheevyn the 13-game losing streak returned!

If they had gone 6-6-1 instead of 0-10-3, they'd be one point out of a playoff spot.

If 6-6-1 in 13 good? Nope, it's an 82-point pace. But it's the difference between selling off Zucker and Greenway (and Jokiharju) at the deadline and promoting Amerks vs. buying at the deadline and going for it. None of the teams at 62-61 points in the standings now should be afraid of each other (DET, OTT, BOS, CBJ). Buy at the deadline and go get that playoff experience. The Sabres should be there, but when they hit the skids early in their "playoffs or bust" year, their GM did nothing.

I wouldn't sell those players, I'd extend them. 

[DarthEbriate]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I wouldn't sell those players, I'd extend them. 

I would, too. They both should've been extended by New Year's Day.

But if I'm those players, I only have one more good contract in my career (Greenway because of the shoulder; Zucker because of age) and I'm looking forward to UFA in a surging cap era the next few seasons. And the team in Buffalo is still operating under EEE, so the likelihood that I sign here is reduced. (And I can take a bit less to go to a contender in the short term.)

[triumph_communes]

Greenway is back and everything gets better. And y’all mocked me

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

The data from the past few years agrees.  Lindy says he is teaching them how to “close a game”, but they sacrifice O-Zone possession time, they back away too soon and too much.  

They play 3rd period Alamo when it should be 3rd period “pour it on”, especially against back up goalies.  

Another wasted season. 

Except they are now winning those games we used to lose in the third. We have held off teams late now the last few games. The difference is the effort put into attacking the other team in our end. We used to fall back into a box hoping to keep everything to the perimeter. But that gave teams all the time in the world to set up. Now we go after them and pressure them into making a play out a turnover. 

[mjd1001]

32 minutes ago, JohnC said:

 

separate note: I have a much different view on Cozens than you do. There is a good chance that he will be dealt. And it wouldn't surprise me that when wearing another uniform he would perform much better. He needs to be on the wing with a good center. He's being mishandled here. 

Actually, our view is not that different then. I have said previously I think he can be an average, maybe well above average as a winger.  He WANTS to chase the puck into the corners and hit guys. He wants to take shots when the puck is on his stick. He wants to play the puck on the boards and in the corner in the defensive zone,doing all that by reacting, not thinking.  Those are qualities that I WANT in my winger, but for him they are negatives at center.

I think Cozens can be/would be an excellent forchecker (maybe 2nd best on the team only behind Tuch), but he needs to be a winger to do that. As a center, he can't just chase guys into the corner and hound the puck, he needs to be aware of the entire ice.  As a winger he doesn't have to worry about that and can just do what he wants to do, and is probably pretty good at.

If the Sabres had a press conference and said "We aren't trading Dylan Cozens but he is being permanently moved to wing" I would be 100% happy at that moment.

My problem is he is bad, really bad at Center right now. And for the last 2+ seasons the flaws in his game have been apparent at Center. His mistakes without the puck are a result of him playing Center.   The good parts and bad parts, game after game, for all to see, are not so bad at wing and terrible at Center. Yet the team...the coach? The GM? The owner? totally refuse to put him at wing. As a matter of fact, when Tage got hurt and couldn't take faceoffs for a few games, Cozens was PROMOTED to center between him and Tuch (and Tage and Tuch proceeeded to have their worst game of the year with him at center, I think they were both a -4 for the game with Cozens).

So yeah, it would be great to have him at wing. But someone in the organization (I'm guessing a much higher up) won't allow it. So if they will not play him at wing, then move him.

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[Crusader1969]

47 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

-Greenway AND Zucker being in the lineup.

-Tage and Dahlin both looking healthy and their play/production being at all-pro/all-star levels.

-Cozens ice time the last 6 games being below his season average, and McLeod starting to get more ice time.

Now, it looks like if you get those things this team plays a lot better. The questions of course:

--If good veteran play is so important, why didn't they bring in another one when they have the money?

--If Dahlin getting hurt can derail the entire team so badly, why not use that money to bring in another Vet d-man?

--Why does it take every coaching staff so long to realize Cozen's limitations...and even they why is he the first one get 'gets minutes back' when someone is hurt?

 

That is about the same time Tage was playing though his arm/wrist/shoulder (whatever it was) injury too, I think?

2 of the last 3 seasons , you can put blame directly on the GM for not making the playoffs. 
 

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Greenway is back and everything gets better. And y’all mocked me

We did? 

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Any news on Tuch?

[mjd1001]

19 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Greenway is back and everything gets better. And y’all mocked me

No mocking from me. I didn't read much mocking from anyone else either?????

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

Actually, our view is not that different then. I have said previously I think he can be an average, maybe a good winger.  He WANTS to chase the puck into the corners and hit guys. He wants to take shots when the puck is on his stick. He wants to play the puck on the boards and in the corner in the defensive zone,doing all that by reacting, not thinking.  Those are qualities that I WANT in my winger, but for him they are negatives at center.

If the Sabres had a press conference and said "We aren't trading Dylan Cozens but he is being permanently moved to wing" I would be 100% happy at that moment.

My problem is he is bad, really bad at Center right now.

I agree that our views are mostly in sync. I slightly disagree with you in that I have a higher estimation of his play as a winger. He's has more of a grittier makeup than a visual player that a center should have. Or another way of saying it is that he's the type of physical player that many people are screaming for to add to this roster. 

I don't need this organization to declare that Cozens will be moved to the wing where he is more suited. What we need is bringing a suitable 2C center so that he can be moved to the wing position. I believe that Sabres do have an asset in Cozens that is being squandered because this organization lacks the wisdom and imagination to fit players in the right position to maximize their talents. 

Powers is a no touch/trade player for me. However, although I like Byram, if we could get the caliber of center we need to move Cozens to the wing, then I would make that trade. My sense is that Cozens is going to be dealt; and my sense is that he will thrive in a better managed organization. 

[mjd1001]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I agree that our views are mostly in sync. I slightly disagree with you in that I have a higher estimation of his play as a winger. He's has more of a grittier makeup than a visual player that a center should have. Or another way of saying it is that he's the type of physical player that many people are screaming for to add to this roster. 

I don't need this organization to declare that Cozens will be moved to the wing where he is more suited. What we need is bringing a suitable 2C center so that he can be moved to the wing position. I believe that Sabres do have an asset in Cozens that is being squandered because this organization lacks the wisdom and imagination to fit players in the right position to maximize their talents. 

Powers is a no touch/trade player for me. However, although I like Byram, if we could get the caliber of center we need to move Cozens to the wing, then I would make that trade. My sense is that Cozens is going to be dealt; and my sense is that he will thrive in a better managed organization. 

I'd give Cozens a wing spot on a line with Krebs.  Are you making the most of him putting him with Krebs? Probably not. But right now, that will allow Cozens to play wing, to show how he fits there, to forcheck, hit guys, make things happen.   Put another guy who can score on that line with them (maybe Zucker) and see how it goes.

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd give Cozens a wing spot on a line with Krebs.  Are you making the most of him putting him with Krebs? Probably not. But right now, that will allow Cozens to play wing, to show how he fits there, to forcheck, hit guys, make things happen.   Put another guy who can score on that line with them (maybe Zucker) and see how it goes.

Those are reasonable suggestions. On the other hand, I do like the Zucker, McCleud and Tuch line. That is a manly line that can also score. That line also embodies a tougher brand of play that this team needs more of on a consistent basis. A few smart moves can reverberate positively throughout the lineup. That was evident with the return of Greenway last night. 

[Big Guava]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

The only sense I make out of it is the blown leads.   Looking at the team scoring by period, they lose a lot of close games by falling into a defensive shell and getting dominated in the 3rd.  

Ironically, this worked tremendously well under Granato and they virtually never lost in regulation when leading going into the 3rd for 2 years.

[shrader]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Greenway is back and everything gets better. And y’all mocked me

They’ve won 5 of 6. There’s a bit more than just a Greenway effect here. But yeah, his injury definitely hurt. 

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Greenway is back and everything gets better. And y’all mocked me

I like Greenway and want to keep him, but they played one game and the Rangers goalie sucked. 

[kas23]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

Bown is a terrific name. It's somewhat unique yet not so exotic that a bearer of that name will have to be subjected to school yard ridicule. What makes it appealing is that there is a meaningful cultural history behind it. That's in contrast to my name John whose history relates to a toilet and excrement. 😄

Don’t forget a hooker’s client. 

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Yes, they do fall into a defensive shell, it appears they rest too far back.   I'd say that is most of it.

But at the same time, they haven't had as good of goaltending this year as last.  UPL has been better the past month it seems, and so is their record. When they were blowing a lot of late game leads, part of it was a a lot of soft-ish goals getting let in.

UPL's numbers are "OK", but when you break them down, its not just his save percentage is lower because he is seeing more high quality shots this year. But most metrics I can find, he is seeing 'about' the same number of shots per game as last year, and even 'about' the same number of high danger chances. The difference is this year his 'high danger' save percentage is almost 50 points lower than it was last year.

Actually, when I look at the numbers, he faced slightly MORE high danger chances last year than he is this year. Even all high danger chances aren't the same....I get that, but in terms of shots faced from the slot, the team is doing SLIGHTLY better this year limiting those than last year.

Again, not his fault totally, the team in front of him needs to get better, but if he would be allowing less soft goals this year, playing more like he did last year, this team would have a number of additional wins.

This is not a UPL problem.  It’s just not.   He is usually under a complete barrage in the 3rd period.  The team gives up on offensive zone possession time and the team turtles into a timid defensive shell.   If UPL gives up an “unexpected goal” every now and then it’s because he is completely overworked and overwhelmed in the 3rd period.  I give UPL the benefit of a doubt on most of the 3rd period collapsing   

Ruff and his coaches own this.  They cut off of the offense and they turtle.  The team does not have enough players to keep the slot clear, they don’t win key faceoffs, they lose puck battles and fail to execute simple breakouts , they ice the puck way too much, they panic at every turn.  

Ruff does not have enough of the right players to execute what he is are trying to do.  Better coaches adapt to the roster they have.  Granato did much better and he had UPL.  

This issue is on Lindy and his staff.  

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

This is not a UPL problem.  It’s just not.   He is usually under a complete barrage in the 3rd period.  The team gives up on offensive zone possession time and the team turtles into a timid defensive shell.   If UPL gives up an “unexpected goal” every now and then it’s because he is completely overworked and overwhelmed in the 3rd period.  I give UPL the benefit of a doubt on most of the 3rd period collapsing   

Ruff and his coaches own this.  They cut off of the offense and they turtle.  The team does not have enough players to keep the slot clear, they don’t win key faceoffs, they lose puck battles and fail to execute simple breakouts , they ice the puck way too much, they panic at every turn.  

Ruff does not have enough of the right players to execute what he is are trying to do.  Better coaches adapt to the roster they have.  Granato did much better and he had UPL.  

This issue is on Lindy and his staff.  

Disagree. He played better last year. He has a allowed a LOT more garbage goals this year than last. To me that is 100% true.

The numbers show that.

Earlier in the year, some of us, including myself commented directly on it. When they were still in a playoff spot before the losing streak, I said in the GDT's over and over, those are goals I NEED upl to stop from going in. Much more than last year.

You may want to put none of the blame on UPL, that is up to you, but he HAS allowed more soft goals than last year and that, FOR SURE, has impacted the number of wins this team has.  I do not know how someone can watch his play, watch the replays of his goals, and not think he has let in more soft goals than last year. 

Its not all his fault. To me it is more the fault of the how the forward group helps out in their own zone, it is mostly on them, with the Defense pairings and UPL having some responsiblity to. But if he played the way he did last year, even behind the group in front of them, they would be better/higher in the standings.

Edited 2 hours ago by mjd1001

[EM88]

6 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

This is not a UPL problem.  It’s just not.  

It is not all on Luukonen for sure. So I agree with you that it is not a UPL problem. But to say his decline in play from last year is not a contributing factor is deflecting. The team does not have a Luukonen problem, but his decline in play was an issue in the earlier part of the season.

His play has been worse this year.  He has allowed many questionable goals, especially earlier in the year, where there was not a total breakdown in front of him. For sure more than last year.

On the list of problems this team has had, he is not at the top of the list, or even near the top. But he is still on that list when you compare his play this year to last year.

[Ogelthorpe]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Nice win.  Sad they didn't have this kind of effort for most of the season.    They blocked shots, played hard until the final whistle.  A few guys even tried to stand up for teammates.  

This game showed why the US lost to Canada in the final game of the 4 Nations..... Too many Rangers.

Too many Leafs! Lol

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Disagree. He played better last year. He has a allowed a LOT more garbage goals this year than last. To me that is 100% true.

The numbers show that.

Earlier in the year, some of us, including myself commented directly on it. When they were still in a playoff spot before the losing streak, I said in the GDT's over and over, those are goals I NEED upl to stop from going in. Much more than last year.

You may want to put none of the blame on UPL, that is up to you, but he HAS allowed more soft goals than last year and that, FOR SURE, has impacted the number of wins this team has.  I do not know how someone can watch his play, watch the replays of his goals, and not think he has let in more soft goals than last year. 

Its not all his fault. To me it is more the fault of the how the forward group helps out in their own zone, it is mostly on them, with the Defense pairings and UPL having some responsiblity to. But if he played the way he did last year, even behind the group in front of them, they would be better/higher in the standings.

I think you are right that UPL has, objectively, not been as good as last year. I think, though, that you are also underplaying the impact that the team's poor play has had on UPL's poorer performance.  Unless I'm mistaken, a goalie who faces 10 shots from particular places on the ice, will have a specific xGA related to those shots, regardless of whether those 10 shots came over a game span of 25 minutes or 5 minutes. Too often we have put UPL in a position where he is under duress. 30 shot attempts, 20 shots, and 5 high-danger chances over 60 minutes is simply different than the same occurring over 20 minutes.    

Edited 57 minutes ago by Archie Lee

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

No mocking from me. I didn't read much mocking from anyone else either?????

The mocking was so subtle that only the special people could detect it. 

I'm very fortunate that when I get mocked it is so apparent that even a dullard like me can recognize it. 😁