Have Dylan Cozens & Mattias Samuelsson been stripped of their “A”s

[Jorcus]

3 hours ago, Pimlach said:

I don't blame the kid for the Sabres bad decisions.  Muel gets a big contract after 57 games, Power gets a big contract after 88 games, Cozens same thing - all of it is turning out to be too much too soon.   This falls on the GM.  

I am in Buffalo for a few weeks.  Was listening to WGR 550 this morning and Paul Hamilton commented on the negative reactions around the league to the Tage no response.   A lot of this falls Muel who wears the "A".  He said he does not see the A being removed this season, but he also does not see this kid recovering from this in Buffalo and will probably will be moved at some point.  

It is just more disfunction that reflects poorly on the franchise and makes it harder to rebuild.  

 

Just wondering if the the so called "league" is reacting the same way to Brady Tkachuk for not reacting for Hartman's assault on Tim Stuzle. He is the captain and he was standing right there.  Not that lets Sammy off the hook but I don't see the same outrage by the media over that.  

[PromoTheRobot]

2 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

 

Just wondering if the the so called "league" is reacting the same way to Brady Tkachuk for not reacting for Hartman's assault on Tim Stuzle. He is the captain and he was standing right there.  Not that lets Sammy off the hook but I don't see the same outrage by the media over that.  

Probably not.

[Brawndo]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

It appears that he got hurt after the failure to respond.  As far as a season ending injury, I don't know what to believe on that.  

To be fair, during the third period Alamo he may have got hurt blocking a shot.  He is credited with 7 blocked shots and 3 hits that game.  So he could have got hurt late in the game.  

 

 

 

[Pimlach]

15 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 

Just wondering if the the so called "league" is reacting the same way to Brady Tkachuk for not reacting for Hartman's assault on Tim Stuzle. He is the captain and he was standing right there.  Not that lets Sammy off the hook but I don't see the same outrage by the media over that.  

True,  and that Ottawa game had several scrums and a lot of tension.  
 

 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Happy Birthday Dylan !!

All of 24 today.

I hope the Sabres keep you long enough to hit your prime along with many others.

See you in 5 years when the Sabres are most likely to be in a position to seriously challenge for a cusp, if not an actual cup.

Hey, oh @Stoner

[JustOneParade]

Were the flaws in Cozens’ game there two years ago but masked (or perhaps ignored) by the 30 goals he scored?

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, JustOneParade said:

Were the flaws in Cozens’ game there two years ago but masked (or perhaps ignored) by the 30 goals he scored?

Most of the flaws were there.

In his 31 goal season:

-Despite his goals scored, he was on the ice for a lot Of goals against. He was a -3. Other top players on the same team that got similar usage and were used in similar situations? Thompson +4, Skinner +15, Tuch +14, Dahlin +11.

-If you are into advance stats, his Corsi% was negative. His Fenwick % was negative. Shots for vs allowed % was negative. Despite his 31 goals, his GF% was negative.  Expected goals was right at 50% (neutral). High danger chance % was negative, and high danger goal % was negative.

-When you compare Cozens in all of those areas compared to the rest of the team, its not just he was negative, he was negative compared to the rest of the team. The Teams Corsi was 2.2 points higher when he was off the ice compared to when he was on the ice.  Fenwick% 2.3 higher with him off the ice compared to on.  Shots for% .6 points higher without him.  Goals for% .8 points higher with him on the bench.  Scoring chance, high danger chances and high danger goals percentages  all about a full point higher with him off the ice compared to on the ice.

-That year the team allowed a goal every 20.27 minutes even strength when Cozens wasn't on the ice. When he was, it was a lot worse, allowing a goal every 17.6 minutes.  For reference, that is a 'pace' like a team allowing 242 goals over a season when he's not on the ice, while allowing a pace of 280 goals when he is on the ice (projected for a full season, playing all minutes)

-He was on just about every single powerplay, averaging almost 3 minutes of PP ice time per game, helping his raw stats.

-He had one of the higher offensive zone start percentages on the team, which in theory should help both his offensive and defensive numbers, yet, he was still a negative player.  He had 26% more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts.

-As a team, they were credited with 34 game winning goals across the roster.  He had one. Tuch had 9, Tage had 7, Even Olofsson had 5. Cozens just with 1. He didn't exactly produce in close games when needed in a season where they missed the playoffs by a single point.

Even with his 31 goals, the team was worse when he was on the ice then vs when he was on the bench by almost every stat, advanced and basic.

Finally, when you look at that season, his 31 goal season, it wasn't a great season. He he one single great stretch of about 20 games.

-From the middle of January that year until early March, he had a single 19 game stretch where he had 11 goals in 19 games and shot 21.5%. That 19 game stretch is what many are defining his career one. Yes, he did it, yes it counts, but it hasn't been repeated since.

-When you 'back out' that single stretch, even the rest of his season that year was not great, much closer to his career averages. 62 games. 20 goals. 12.5% shooting. -9 on plus/minus.

For whatever reasons, luck, playing a string of backup goalies, competition, random chance, He was a very good stretch of 19 games in one year...19 games out of a career of 335 games. And even then he was well below average defensively. To me personally, it seems that fans who are holding out hope that he will be a useful, 30 goal scorer are basing that by totally ignoring his defensive play over his entire career, and holding onto his production that happend over a period in one season, 19 games, 6.5 weeks of a single season.

 

Edited February 9 by mjd1001

[steveoath]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Most of the flaws were there.

In his 31 goal season:

-Despite his goals scored, he was on the ice for a lot Of goals against. He was a -3. Other top players on the same team that got similar usage and were used in similar situations? Thompson +4, Skinner +15, Tuch +14, Dahlin +11.

-If you are into advance stats, his Corsi% was negative. His Fenwick % was negative. Shots for vs allowed % was negative. Despite his 31 goals, his GF% was negative.  Expected goals was right at 50% (neutral). High danger chance % was negative, and high danger goal % was negative.

-When you compare Cozens in all of those areas compared to the rest of the team, its not just he was negative, he was negative compared to the rest of the team. The Teams Corsi was 2.2 points higher when he was off the ice compared to when he was on the ice.  Fenwick% 2.3 higher with him off the ice compared to on.  Shots for% .6 points higher without him.  Goals for% .8 points higher with him on the bench.  Scoring chance, high danger chances and high danger goals percentages  all about a full point higher with him off the ice compared to on the ice.

-That year the team allowed a goal every 20.27 minutes even strength when Cozens wasn't on the ice. When he was, it was a lot worse, allowing a goal every 17.6 minutes.  For reference, that is a 'pace' like a team allowing 242 goals over a season when he's not on the ice, while allowing a pace of 280 goals when he is on the ice (projected for a full season, playing all minutes)

-He was on just about every single powerplay, averaging almost 3 minutes of PP ice time per game, helping his raw stats.

-As a team, they were credited with 34 game winning goals across the roster.  He had one. Tuch had 9, Tage had 7, Even Olofsson had 5. Cozens just with 1. He didn't exactly produce in close games when needed in a season where they missed the playoffs by a single point.

Even with his 31 goals, the team was worse when he was on the ice then vs when he was on the bench by almost every stat, advanced and basic.

 

There’s no way he’s going to be the centrepiece of a deal is there? Unless there’s a GM worse than Adams. 

[EM88]

31 minutes ago, steveoath said:

There’s no way he’s going to be the centrepiece of a deal is there? Unless there’s a GM worse than Adams. 

If a trade were available involving Dylan Cozens for a player of similar skill and production to McLeod, that would make the team better than it is now. Not because McLeod type players are game changes, but rather a player like him brings only a fraction of the negatives that Dylan Cozens does.

If you take raw emotion out of the equation, then Adams is not a bad person to be making roster moves.  The last big trade he made looks darn good right now, in the Mittlestadt for Byram move.  Offseason acquisitions have been hit and miss like most teams, but there are some good ones in there.

A handful of other posters point out that the issue with Adams is he does not make enough moves. It is not that he makes bad moves.  His record does seem to show if he makes a move with Cozens there is probably an equal chance it will or will not be a good move for the team in the long run.  The indictment of Adams is that move has not been made yet, and that indictment will be justified even further if no move is made with him at all.

When people say they do not want Adams making a move because he is bad at moves, that criticism is misplaced to me. It is not the quality of the moves he makes, it is the lack of moves or waiting too long to make those moves.

Edited February 9 by EM88

[Rasmus_]

Samuelsson has turned into the next round of, we signed the guy, and he becomes a brittle bag of compost.  The guy gets injured lifting a tea bag. 

[Archie Lee]

20 hours ago, EM88 said:

If a trade were available involving Dylan Cozens for a player of similar skill and production to McLeod, that would make the team better than it is now. Not because McLeod type players are game changes, but rather a player like him brings only a fraction of the negatives that Dylan Cozens does.

If you take raw emotion out of the equation, then Adams is not a bad person to be making roster moves.  The last big trade he made looks darn good right now, in the Mittlestadt for Byram move.  Offseason acquisitions have been hit and miss like most teams, but there are some good ones in there.

A handful of other posters point out that the issue with Adams is he does not make enough moves. It is not that he makes bad moves.  His record does seem to show if he makes a move with Cozens there is probably an equal chance it will or will not be a good move for the team in the long run.  The indictment of Adams is that move has not been made yet, and that indictment will be justified even further if no move is made with him at all.

When people say they do not want Adams making a move because he is bad at moves, that criticism is misplaced to me. It is not the quality of the moves he makes, it is the lack of moves or waiting too long to make those moves.

I think on balance he makes bad decisions.  Post-tear-down, the caution he has shown in making trades and signing UFAs has shown mildly positive results for individual players, but has not had a positive overall impact in the standings (quite the opposite). I think it would be flawed to expect that if he becomes more aggressive in these areas that the results would be good. His aggressive contract extensions for young players have not gone well. His aggressive pursuit of Ruff, ignoring many good alternatives, has been a disaster. There is just no reason to think a more aggressive Kevyn Adams in the areas of trading or signing UFAs, would yield positive results. 

[JustOneParade]

23 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Most of the flaws were there.

In his 31 goal season:

-Despite his goals scored, he was on the ice for a lot Of goals against. He was a -3. Other top players on the same team that got similar usage and were used in similar situations? Thompson +4, Skinner +15, Tuch +14, Dahlin +11.

-If you are into advance stats, his Corsi% was negative. His Fenwick % was negative. Shots for vs allowed % was negative. Despite his 31 goals, his GF% was negative.  Expected goals was right at 50% (neutral). High danger chance % was negative, and high danger goal % was negative.

-When you compare Cozens in all of those areas compared to the rest of the team, its not just he was negative, he was negative compared to the rest of the team. The Teams Corsi was 2.2 points higher when he was off the ice compared to when he was on the ice.  Fenwick% 2.3 higher with him off the ice compared to on.  Shots for% .6 points higher without him.  Goals for% .8 points higher with him on the bench.  Scoring chance, high danger chances and high danger goals percentages  all about a full point higher with him off the ice compared to on the ice.

-That year the team allowed a goal every 20.27 minutes even strength when Cozens wasn't on the ice. When he was, it was a lot worse, allowing a goal every 17.6 minutes.  For reference, that is a 'pace' like a team allowing 242 goals over a season when he's not on the ice, while allowing a pace of 280 goals when he is on the ice (projected for a full season, playing all minutes)

-He was on just about every single powerplay, averaging almost 3 minutes of PP ice time per game, helping his raw stats.

-He had one of the higher offensive zone start percentages on the team, which in theory should help both his offensive and defensive numbers, yet, he was still a negative player.  He had 26% more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts.

-As a team, they were credited with 34 game winning goals across the roster.  He had one. Tuch had 9, Tage had 7, Even Olofsson had 5. Cozens just with 1. He didn't exactly produce in close games when needed in a season where they missed the playoffs by a single point.

Even with his 31 goals, the team was worse when he was on the ice then vs when he was on the bench by almost every stat, advanced and basic.

Finally, when you look at that season, his 31 goal season, it wasn't a great season. He he one single great stretch of about 20 games.

-From the middle of January that year until early March, he had a single 19 game stretch where he had 11 goals in 19 games and shot 21.5%. That 19 game stretch is what many are defining his career one. Yes, he did it, yes it counts, but it hasn't been repeated since.

-When you 'back out' that single stretch, even the rest of his season that year was not great, much closer to his career averages. 62 games. 20 goals. 12.5% shooting. -9 on plus/minus.

For whatever reasons, luck, playing a string of backup goalies, competition, random chance, He was a very good stretch of 19 games in one year...19 games out of a career of 335 games. And even then he was well below average defensively. To me personally, it seems that fans who are holding out hope that he will be a useful, 30 goal scorer are basing that by totally ignoring his defensive play over his entire career, and holding onto his production that happend over a period in one season, 19 games, 6.5 weeks of a single season.

 

You put a lot of work into that. Greatly appreciate you for doing so.

[inkman]

12 hours ago, Rasmus_ said:

Samuelsson has turned into the next round of, we signed the guy, and he becomes a brittle bag of compost.  The guy gets injured lifting a tea bag. 

Casey Mittelstadt was a hell of a tea bagger

[Stoner]

1 minute ago, inkman said:

Casey Mittelstadt was a hell of a tea bagger

I been workin on the railroad...

I pray that ear worm infects all.

[Jorcus]

On 2/9/2025 at 12:03 PM, mjd1001 said:

Most of the flaws were there.

In his 31 goal season:

-Despite his goals scored, he was on the ice for a lot Of goals against. He was a -3. Other top players on the same team that got similar usage and were used in similar situations? Thompson +4, Skinner +15, Tuch +14, Dahlin +11.

-If you are into advance stats, his Corsi% was negative. His Fenwick % was negative. Shots for vs allowed % was negative. Despite his 31 goals, his GF% was negative.  Expected goals was right at 50% (neutral). High danger chance % was negative, and high danger goal % was negative.

-When you compare Cozens in all of those areas compared to the rest of the team, its not just he was negative, he was negative compared to the rest of the team. The Teams Corsi was 2.2 points higher when he was off the ice compared to when he was on the ice.  Fenwick% 2.3 higher with him off the ice compared to on.  Shots for% .6 points higher without him.  Goals for% .8 points higher with him on the bench.  Scoring chance, high danger chances and high danger goals percentages  all about a full point higher with him off the ice compared to on the ice.

-That year the team allowed a goal every 20.27 minutes even strength when Cozens wasn't on the ice. When he was, it was a lot worse, allowing a goal every 17.6 minutes.  For reference, that is a 'pace' like a team allowing 242 goals over a season when he's not on the ice, while allowing a pace of 280 goals when he is on the ice (projected for a full season, playing all minutes)

-He was on just about every single powerplay, averaging almost 3 minutes of PP ice time per game, helping his raw stats.

-He had one of the higher offensive zone start percentages on the team, which in theory should help both his offensive and defensive numbers, yet, he was still a negative player.  He had 26% more offensive zone starts than defensive zone starts.

-As a team, they were credited with 34 game winning goals across the roster.  He had one. Tuch had 9, Tage had 7, Even Olofsson had 5. Cozens just with 1. He didn't exactly produce in close games when needed in a season where they missed the playoffs by a single point.

Even with his 31 goals, the team was worse when he was on the ice then vs when he was on the bench by almost every stat, advanced and basic.

Finally, when you look at that season, his 31 goal season, it wasn't a great season. He he one single great stretch of about 20 games.

-From the middle of January that year until early March, he had a single 19 game stretch where he had 11 goals in 19 games and shot 21.5%. That 19 game stretch is what many are defining his career one. Yes, he did it, yes it counts, but it hasn't been repeated since.

-When you 'back out' that single stretch, even the rest of his season that year was not great, much closer to his career averages. 62 games. 20 goals. 12.5% shooting. -9 on plus/minus.

For whatever reasons, luck, playing a string of backup goalies, competition, random chance, He was a very good stretch of 19 games in one year...19 games out of a career of 335 games. And even then he was well below average defensively. To me personally, it seems that fans who are holding out hope that he will be a useful, 30 goal scorer are basing that by totally ignoring his defensive play over his entire career, and holding onto his production that happend over a period in one season, 19 games, 6.5 weeks of a single season.

 

 

The thing about that season though is he was 20-21 years old when it happened. So it was natural to expect some growth in his play. I honestly think there is more to him than what we are seeing and that is why there is so much interest in an overpaid center with bad current play and numbers. We often gush on Benson or Kulich but will either of them put up 30 next season? Benson with the benefit of 2 full years of NHL experience under his belt? It could happen and I know he is a good defensive player but it's hard to score goals in the NHL and the guys that can do it get paid. In retrospect the Cozens contract was rushed but I do think there is some circumstances behind the numbers in this season and last. 

I think there are three main aspects to his game physical, mental, and positional. As you have well pointed out many times Cozens is not playing his position well. The question becomes does he know what he is supposed to be doing or is it all on him just ignoring instruction and free lancing to the point of failure? It's always hard to tell from an outside perspective but it is also something that can improve. You also have to trust who is on the ice with you to know they are doing what they are supposed to do so you can do what you are supposed to do. This kind of brings up the mental aspect of the game. Maybe he just can't process it well enough to do the things he is supposed to do. It's another element that is hard to see without being in the room and know how he is being coached. It is possible he can only play the game a certain way and if you try to make him into something else it is beyond his mental ability. 

When right I think the physical side of the game is what attracts people to him. The more I look at NHL players and try to determine who can play in this league or not few can play without the speed, strength, or shooting ability. Cozens does not have the hardest of shots but it is not the worst. When he is skating well he has the speed and when he is healthy he does have the strength to up end a D man. The problem is none of that is true right now. 

Just looking at this season in the first month of the year he was skating well and creating a lot of chances for himself. His shots were not going in but the open attempts were there. Numbers wise he was kind of treading water, not producing too much but not giving up a ton. He was that way through October and November, then sometime during the streak the wheels just came off. Was it an undisclosed injury? The constant line switching? Loss of focus? I have no idea but he has been really bad since mid to late December. He seems slower, his puck handling is bad, rarely wins battles on the wall among other things. I think in the last two games he may have started to come back around. Maybe it's physical and after 2 weeks of rest he comes back to at least something better than he is now. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.    

[mjd1001]

24 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

Just looking at this season in the first month of the year he was skating well and creating a lot of chances for himself. His shots were not going in but the open attempts were there. Numbers wise he was kind of treading water, not producing too much but not giving up a ton. He was that way through October and November, then sometime during the streak the wheels just came off. Was it an undisclosed injury? The constant line switching? Loss of focus? I have no idea but he has been really bad since mid to late December. He seems slower, his puck handling is bad, rarely wins battles on the wall among other things. I think in the last two games he may have started to come back around. Maybe it's physical and after 2 weeks of rest he comes back to at least something better than he is now. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.    

The one thing about Cozen is, his 'advanced numbers' in one way are usually pretty good. Expected goals for, as he DOES get to and goes to the slot and those high danger areas.

If there is one part of his game I think is good that is it, he is not afraid to skate in front of the net or the slot.  Now the issue is, first, his accuracy from there and 2nd, he seems to always shoot once he gets there and doesn't look to pass at all (makes his advanced stats look better but not his actual production).

My issue with him has always been 2 things:  1.) expectations....30+ goal scorer every year he is not. If we accept him as a 20 goal scorer, with the upside/ceiling (but not expectations) of getting 30, then he's good there. and 2.)  Him being at Center.  His weakness may be a strength at wing. Him wanting to chase the puck, him wanting to go to the boards. Him wanting to engage opposing players instead of just playing his 'zone'.  All of those things are weaknesses for someone who is 'patrolling' the center of the ice, but strengths for a winger.  When he forchecks, he likes to go deep and take guys to the boards or go ALL the way into the corner and finish checks....again, a GOOD thing for a winger, but my center needs to be more aware of everyone around him.

I'm not pretending to know more about hockey then Ruff, Granato, the scouting department, and all the assistants. There must be SOMETHING going on that we don't know or don't see.  Its just that everytime I see him make a mistake, or be out of position, almost everytime, I think to myself, "If he was on wing, that wouldn't be so bad" or "that is exactly what I WANT my wingers to do and NOT want the center to do, and look how it hurt him."  I don't get it.

I say over and over Cozens is an awful player, who hurts this team.  I think most of the time that is true. But he STILL can be an asset, IMO. They need to play him where his strengths are. They haven't done that with him for almost his entire time here.

[mjd1001]

Per my above post:   https://www.naturalstattrick.com/game.php?season=20242025&game=20885

I know I did see Cozens play a bit on the wing. I'm just not sure if he was supposed to be at center and just went to the boards, or if Krebs was the actual center.

Naturalstattrick shows him listed on their line tool as playing wing with Krebs and Quinn last game. Its only one game, but the advanced stats of that line were really, REALLY good, with Cozens showing at wing (and with it appearing Krebs and him did split center/wing duty)

Edited February 10 by mjd1001