The Sabres need to move on from Mattias Samuelsson

[DarthEbriate]

If he'd continued to play like he did in his first year, and they won 70% of all games he dressed in, and he'd stay healthy, it would've been the best deal in the world once the cap gets over $100M. Alas, LT to Muel and bridge-to-UFA for Reinhart was some poor decidery from up top.

Also, let's get a new D coach, because Muel's game was strong and steady when he arrived from Rochester.

[JohnC]

59 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I agree. Its not a good contract right now, but its not something that is preventing you from making other moves.  You keep the contract, and if you can't trade him you keep the player. You have an overplay for basically a 3rd pair D-man or even a 7th D-man if it doesn't work out that well.

The owner hired an unqualified GM with the intention that he would save him money by keeping the costs down. So what does his inexplicable hire do? He gives out bad contracts. The problematic issue regarding the Samuelsson contract is its length. 

I agree with you that Samuelsson is turning out to be a third pair defenseman. And what is evident is that the GM's miscalculation with this contract rebounds to hurt him because it's an outsized contract that makes his trade market value less appealing. 

Right now, I would prefer to keep him and hope that he will become a good third pairing player. What's making that less likely is the durability issue. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

The owner hired an unqualified GM with the intention that he would save him money by keeping the costs down. So what does his inexplicable hire do? He gives out bad contracts. The problematic issue regarding the Samuelsson contract is its length. 

I agree with you that Samuelsson is turning out to be a third pair defenseman. And what is evident is that the GM's miscalculation with this contract rebounds to hurt him because it's an outsized contract that makes his trade market value less appealing. 

Right now, I would prefer to keep him and hope that he will become a good third pairing player. What's making that less likely is the durability issue. 

I think he is GOOD on the PK most of the time.  He has the height and reach to be able to disrupt things a bit without getting too out of position.

So, if he can be your #1 or #2 D-man on the PK, and give you 12 minutes of ice time on the 3rd pair, I don't think that is the worst thing.  His contract in a year or two will actually not be bad compared to the cap.

The issue, as you say, is durability. You can have a defined, useful role on the team, but if you can't play 25%+ of the games each year, then you become a liability just for that.

[JohnC]

29 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I think he is GOOD on the PK most of the time.  He has the height and reach to be able to disrupt things a bit without getting too out of position.

So, if he can be your #1 or #2 D-man on the PK, and give you 12 minutes of ice time on the 3rd pair, I don't think that is the worst thing.  His contract in a year or two will actually not be bad compared to the cap.

The issue, as you say, is durability. You can have a defined, useful role on the team, but if you can't play 25%+ of the games each year, then you become a liability just for that.

I'm not as harsh in my assessment of Samuelsson as many others are. If he can stay healthy and become a good third pairing player, then he has utility. He also has value when needed he can move up to the higher pairing as the complementary player when called upon. And as you point out, he is a good on the PK. A big part of the frustration about him is his fragility. Can he become more durable? I'm not sure???  Candidly, I expected more from him this season, as I did with Cozens and Quinn. 

[JP51]

4 hours ago, CallawaySabres said:

It's getting difficult to figure out which contract is the worst on the Sabres right now, there are so many to choose from. Between trade returns and contracts, Adams has to be labeled as the worst GM in Buffalo sports history. 

I would take out Buffalo Sports and just leave it history... he is an epic failure... why he is still here is amazing in and of its self. 

as for Samuelsson... what an absolute waste of a roster space for that money.. I agree.... 

[HumanSlinky39]

He showed promise early on. Don't know what happened. Maybe his propensity for getting injured has caused him to alter his play? Whatever it is, he isn't good. That contract was given too soon. A lot of players, particularly D-men show promise early in their career then never really advance beyond that, or regress and disappear. This seems to be one of those cases.

Edited February 5 by HumanSlinky39

[inkman]

Just now, HumanSlinky39 said:

He showed promise early on. Don't know what happened. Maybe his propensity for getting injured has caused him to alter his play? Whatever it is, he isn't good. That contract was given too soon. A lot of players, particularly D-men show promise early in career then never really advance beyond that, or regress and disappear. This seems to be one of those cases.

He played with Dahlin.  End of story. He’s not good on his own. Pair him with one of the best players in the world and he suddenly looks mildly competent. 

[HumanSlinky39]

Just now, inkman said:

He played with Dahlin.  End of story. He’s not good on his own. Pair him with one of the best players in the world and he suddenly looks mildly competent. 

That might be part of it, sure. But I recall him playing a good, responsible game and actually being more physical and disruptive early on. Now I see him making boneheaded plays, being recklessly out of position, and regularly chasing guys from behind because of his poor positioning. That's when he's not hurt. I don't know. He certainly showed some promise, but that looks like it all evaporated.

[tom webster]

I think people are going to be surprised at the return they get for Sammy. There are still old school people running teams throughout the league and his name comes up often.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

4 hours ago, Stoner said:

I've said it before. This place is full of the smartest dumb ***** you'll ever read.

There are dozens of threads like this. One of our resident geniuses was arguing for Asplund to get a LT deal.

That people continue to post with certainty, with total amnesia about how many times they've been wrong, is amazing.

I just stick to Terry sucks and the Sabres suck and have no regrets.

It's already happenning again with:

Quinn = Asplund

Peterka = Mittelstadt

If either of these guys get any sort of multi-year high $ deal in the off season I'm going to quit this team.  Anyone not named Zucker hasn't earned anything this season.  

For the record I like Quinn more than Asplund and Peterka more than Mittelstadt, but neither earned the bag this year

[mjd1001]

Ok, I know there is alot more than the raw numbers here (game situation, who is on the ice with you, usage etc.) but some numbers on goals allowed when on ice:

-The Sabres as a team this year allow 1 goal for every 19.2 minutes played even strength.

The guys on defense ranked, from 'best' to 'worst' of how often goals are scored against when they are on the ice:

-Jokiharju, one goal every 28.28 minutes

-Connor Clifton, one goal every 23.28 minutes

-Bowen Byrum, one goal every 21.59 minutes

-Rasmus Dahlin, one goal every 20.44 minutes

-Bryson, one goal every 20.00 minutes

-Samuelsson, one goal every 18.89 minutes

-Ryan Johnson, one goal every 17.66 minutes

-Owen Power, one goal every 16.21 minutes

-Denis Gilbert, one goal every 13.38 minutes

 

 

 

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, Hawerchuk said:

I had really high hopes for him, but he just cannot stay healthy, like ever!

We kinda said the same thing about Jake McCabe, innit?

15 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, I know there is alot more than the raw numbers here (game situation, who is on the ice with you, usage etc.) but some numbers on goals allowed when on ice:

-The Sabres as a team this year allow 1 goal for every 19.2 minutes played even strength.

The guys on defense ranked, from 'best' to 'worst' of how often goals are scored against when they are on the ice:

-Jokiharju, one goal every 28.28 minutes

-Connor Clifton, one goal every 23.28 minutes

-Bowen Byrum, one goal every 21.59 minutes

-Rasmus Dahlin, one goal every 20.44 minutes

-Bryson, one goal every 20.00 minutes

-Samuelsson, one goal every 18.89 minutes

-Ryan Johnson, one goal every 17.66 minutes

-Owen Power, one goal every 16.21 minutes

-Denis Gilbert, one goal every 13.38 minutes

 

 

 

So Joki isn't the boat anchor everyone say he is?

[LGR4GM]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

McCabe played 77, 76, 53, and 59 games in his first 4 years. 3 of those years would be more games than Samuelsson has ever played in any season. 

 

20 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

We kinda said the same thing about Jake McCabe, innit?

So Joki isn't the boat anchor everyone say he is?

Not really, no. 

Samuelsson made 55 games once in his last 4 years. 

[inkman]

27 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

We kinda said the same thing about Jake McCabe, innit?

So Joki isn't the boat anchor everyone say he is?

Hey boat anchor!  Be still my beating heart. 

[mjd1001]

40 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

We kinda said the same thing about Jake McCabe, innit?

So Joki isn't the boat anchor everyone say he is?

Well, stats can't take everything into consideration, but the interesting thing....as far as goals allowed his numbers were similar last year:

2023-2024:

Sabres goals allowed even strength as a team: 1 goal every 22.39 minutes

Jokiharju goals allowed even strength:  1 goal every 26.86 minutes.

So yeah, whether it is who he is out there with, where he starts his shifts, or just him playing smarter than we think...the team simply allows less goals per minute, a LOT less goals per minute, when Jokiharju is out there compared to anyone else, both this year and last year.

Just because Cozens is my favorite whipping boy, I looked at the numbers (total goals for and allowed) over the last 2 years with him and Jokiharju on the ice at the same time vs not...

Cozens with Jokiharju:  +7 goals

Cozens without Jokiharju: -14 goals

Jokiharju without Cozens: +10

I mean...the numbers are the numbers.

Edited February 5 by mjd1001

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I think people are going to be surprised at the return they get for Sammy. There are still old school people running teams throughout the league and his name comes up often.

The issue isn't whether there is interest in him or not. The issue for the Sabres is what is his value on the market. It seems to me that because of his injury history and inconsistent play that right now the return wouldn't be much. As I stated in prior posts, I would rather keep him and hope that he can play more consistently. I'm with @mjd1001 on his assessment that he is a third pairing caliber defenseman who also is a capable PKer. 

[Pimlach]

6 hours ago, Stoner said:

I've said it before. This place is full of the smartest dumb ***** you'll ever read.

There are dozens of threads like this. One of our resident geniuses was arguing for Asplund to get a LT deal.

That people continue to post with certainty, with total amnesia about how many times they've been wrong, is amazing.

I just stick to Terry sucks and the Sabres suck and have no regrets.

My one comment in that one thread: 

Seems like a long term commitment for a player with 54 games under his belt.  

Hmmm   Not understanding why they couldn’t wait another season.  

 

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, inkman said:

I had to find my reaction in that thread.  Cautiously optimistic but certainly not overwhelmingly excited about it.  I guess more of us should have realized how much Rasmus was impacting his game.  It’s blatantly obvious at this point.  

Is this what you want, what you think will happen or do you have evidence indicating it is fact?  

Yes, you should have 

Edited February 5 by Thorner

[Crusader1969]

I think the "injury" is a cover.  I think he played his last game as a Sabre last week when he failed to do anything after the hit on Tage   

 

 

[Thorner]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

I'd remain patient, he's still young for a defenseman and has shown he's a solid defender when healthy.

Jake McCabe also had trouble staying healthy early in his career and yet he developed into a very reliable player over the past 4-5 seasons. 

If only Samuelsson was good at hockey when healthy! 

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

But we weren't paying McCabe 4.3 million a season. McCabe low contract cost during his development afforded the Sabres time to be patient.  We don't have that luxury now.  

Exactly, bad contract by the prism of the moment and even worse in retrospect 

[Slack_in_MA]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, I know there is alot more than the raw numbers here (game situation, who is on the ice with you, usage etc.) but some numbers on goals allowed when on ice:

-The Sabres as a team this year allow 1 goal for every 19.2 minutes played even strength.

The guys on defense ranked, from 'best' to 'worst' of how often goals are scored against when they are on the ice:

-Jokiharju, one goal every 28.28 minutes

-Connor Clifton, one goal every 23.28 minutes

-Bowen Byrum, one goal every 21.59 minutes

-Rasmus Dahlin, one goal every 20.44 minutes

-Bryson, one goal every 20.00 minutes

-Samuelsson, one goal every 18.89 minutes

-Ryan Johnson, one goal every 17.66 minutes

-Owen Power, one goal every 16.21 minutes

-Denis Gilbert, one goal every 13.38 minutes

 

 

 

Any data on what the numbers for the best in the NHL look like? I’m always leery of being too myopic with stats like these. 

[inkman]

6 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think the "injury" is a cover.  I think he played his last game as a Sabre last week when he failed to do anything after the hit on Tage   

 

 

Oft injured player, get injured again.  “Defiantly a trade in the works, what other explanation can there be.” 

Just now, inkman said:

Oft injured player, get injured again.  “Defiantly a trade in the works, what other explanation can there be.” 

It’s like a sickness with the affected lot of people who think this way 

[Brawndo]

26 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think the "injury" is a cover.  I think he played his last game as a Sabre last week when he failed to do anything after the hit on Tage   

 

 

The injury is real 

[Crusader1969]

15 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

The injury is real 

I trust you know.  Thanks! 
still think he may have played his last game.  Or last game with an A on his jersey?

[inkman]

36 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

I trust you know.  Thanks! 
still think he may have played his last game.  Or last game with an A on his jersey?

Please stop just making things up.  I want this season to end so badly.  Just put us down like ol’ yeller.   I’m tired of the nonsense. 

Edited February 6 by inkman