GDT: Blue Jackets @ Sabres Feb 4, 2025 - 7:00PM, MSG 📺, WGR550 📻 🎙

[Pimlach]

9 hours ago, Mr Peabody said:

I was pretty cynical about the fight 3 seconds in but maybe the intent was to get it out of the way and let the rest of the team just play hockey?  Allow them to no worry about having to play a game we’re not well suited for?   Maybe.

Thoughts on our continuous 3rd period issues; is it our lack of strength on the boards or lack of puck carriers to exit the zone?  Or what?

The fight was a show to the league that we are a serious team. 😂 

The 3rd period is the way Lindy wants to play.  Rarely are two guys deep in the offensive zone, most of the shots are harmless, they back up into the neutral zone, than back into their zone, then back up around the goalie.  Then they fail to clear pucks, miss breakout opportunities, and ice the puck constantly.  After numerous lost defensive zone face offs they break down.  

They are among the worst in 3rd period scoring in the  league, and they have blown the lead more times than any other team.  

Lindy is teaching them how to “grind” (his words).  

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

In my opinion, he is the biggest disappointment on this roster.  Even more so than Power.  

Quinn looked like he had "arrived."  (Just as Cozens had.)  Just like Kulich is doing this season.  Both Quinn and Cozens took steps back after convincing us they were the real deal.

[mjd1001]

19 minutes ago, Broken Ankles said:

Better together, no.  Just pushing down the lineup.  Obviously they both perform better on a line with Tage/Tuch/JJP but would each would put a drag on the top two.  Point is moving them off a top six.  Based on Ice time deployment and the 7 D and mix and match lines Cozens is  already a bottom six forward.   

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481528&p2=8482097&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

 

That goals for vs goals allowed in there is telling and disappointing. Whenever neither of them are on the ice the team is a plus 15 in goal differential. When either of them or both of them, are on the ice they are a negative 10.

Basically, the team without Cozens and Quinn is actually pretty good. The moment either of them hit the ice they start 'losing'.

Defensively it is the most apparent. If you break down the stats per minute...the team is allowing 25% more goals per minute 5 on 5 and scoring 20% less 5 on 5 with either of them on the ice vs when anyone else is out there.  And this isn't a small sample size, this is for the entire year.

Last year I think the numbers weren't as bad as this year,  but still similar. When either of those 2 were on the ice the team had close to an even goal differential...when both were off the ice they were a positive 15.

Edited 8 hours ago by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

22 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

The fight was a show to the league that we are a serious team. 😂 

The 3rd period is the way Lindy wants to play.  Rarely are two guys deep in the offensive zone, most of the shots are harmless, they back up into the neutral zone, than back into their zone, then back up around the goalie.  Then they fail to clear pucks, miss breakout opportunities, and ice the puck constantly.  After numerous lost defensive zone face offs they break down.  

They are among the worst in 3rd period scoring in the  league, and they have blown the lead more times than any other team.  

Lindy is teaching them how to “grind” (his words).  

I know the stats have been mentioned before, but they are quite remarkable.

-Sabres have scored 60 goals in the first period...tops in the entire league.

-They are a +21 in goal differential in the 1st, tied for best in the league.

-They have scored the first goal of the game 34 times, again best in the league.

In the 3rd period it gets a LOT worse

-50 goals scored, 5th worst in the league

-Negative 19 in goal differential, 3rd worst in the league

If the games only lasted 20 minutes, this team would be in the running for the Presidents trophy right now.

[Doohicksie]

7 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Who is the #1 center on this team at the moment?

Tonight's game:

Cozens 15:15 ice time

Kulich 17:31 ice time

McLeod:  22:19 ice time

Why do you even show Cozens in this list when Krebs had 16:26 of ice time and actually didn't even have a line (with the Sabres playing 7D and Malenstyn being the only winger on his "line" and he only had 6:58 TOI).  Has Krebs passed Cozens on the depth chart?  TOI sez so, at least for this game.  Looks like Krebs was taking a lot of Cozens' faceoffs as well:

Kulich:  Took 17 (won 9 for 53%)
McLeod:  Took 14 (won only 5 for 36%)
Krebs:  Took 12 (won 7 for 58%)
Cozens:  Took only 7 (won 4 for 57%)

On a tangent, throw in Zucker and Tuch both going 1-for-1 on the dot and the Sabres won the faceoff battle 52% to 48%.  It seems that as the season goes on the team has improved.

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, Doohicksie said:

Why do you even show Cozens in this list when Krebs had 16:26 of ice time and actually didn't even have a line (with the Sabres playing 7D and Malenstyn being the only winger on his "line" and he only had 6:58 TOI).  Has Krebs passed Cozens on the depth chart?  TOI sez so, at least for this game.  Looks like Krebs was taking a lot of Cozens' faceoffs as well:

Kulich:  Took 17 (won 9 for 53%)
McLeod:  Took 14 (won only 5 for 36%)
Krebs:  Took 12 (won 7 for 58%)
Cozens:  Took only 7 (won 4 for 57%)

On a tangent, throw in Zucker and Tuch both going 1-for-1 on the dot and the Sabres won the faceoff battle 52% to 48%.  It seems that as the season goes on the team has improved.

I showed Cozens for 2 reasons:  He is accepted by some as, without Tage, the defacto 'best' center on the team (or should be based on his salary and the "A")

2nd, I could swear watching the game that all of Krebs ice time was not at center.  He was out there for a few shifts (at least) with McLeod and Krebs to me was obviously playing wing based on both of their positioning on the ice.

[Doohicksie]

31 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

The 3rd period is the way Lindy wants to play.  Rarely are two guys deep in the offensive zone, most of the shots are harmless, they back up into the neutral zone, than back into their zone, then back up around the goalie.  Then they fail to clear pucks, miss breakout opportunities, and ice the puck constantly.  After numerous lost defensive zone face offs they break down.  

It would all work if they didn't "fail to clear pucks" imo.  Of course I'd like to see them grinding it out down at the other end of the rink but that's just me I guess.

[Doohicksie]

10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Krebs ice time was not at center.  He was out there for a few shifts (at least) with McLeod and Krebs to me was obviously playing wing based on both of their positioning on the ice.

While I can't argue with you there, he did take a lot of faceoffs for a "winger."  It would be interesting to dig into the stats and see which forwards were on ice for every faceoff, this game being a little weird due to 11 forwards dressed.

I've said things along these lines before, but this team has 99 problems, but Peyton Krebs ain't one.  He's not a $7 million dollar player either, but he fills a useful niche.  Thanks to Donny Meatballs for training him for that assignment.

Edited 8 hours ago by Doohicksie

[That Aud Smell]

15 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I think I'm even more angry about the organ-eye-zayshun giving Samuelsson the cover of an injury designation for tonight's scratch than I am about anything else surrounding the Tage Thompson non-response.

That's the root of the rot right there.

And I'd bet dollars to donuts that Opie was involved in thusly sheltering his chosen, foundational steady d-man.

53 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Why would UPL do that?  Why do you think players get involved in those type of transactions?  

My apologies for the confusion.

I said Opie.

Not Upie (sp?).

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

While I can't argue with you there, he did take a lot of faceoffs for a "winger."  It would be interesting to dig into the stats and see which forwards were on ice for every faceoff, this game being a little weird due to 11 forwards dressed.

I've said things along these lines before, but this team has 99 problems, but Peyton Krebs ain't one.  He's not a $7 million dollar player either, but he fills a useful niche.  Thanks to Donny Meatballs for training him for that assignment.

Oh, I have been pleasantly surprised with Krebs play this year.  He's not a top 6 guy, but I honestly think all year long he has performed better then Cozens when taking everything into consideration.

Last year, there were 2 players I thought were awful and wanted gone. Krebs and Cozens. I probably actually complained about Krebs more than Cozens last year.

I thought both of them brought little positive to the team, and when they were on the ice the negatives made the team worse. I did not want Krebs re-signed, and if he was brought back I said as long as it's only for 1 year at the minimum contract AND he would likely spend time in Rochester. I thought I saw enough of Krebs and didn't see any signs of him getting better.

Well, I was wrong on him.  I agree he's not going to be a guy that gets you 60 points and anchors your 2nd line for years to come. But I think he has found a role on this team and has more good games than bad ones.

And as far as the 99 problems...well, yeah, they aren't perfect.  But I think there are only 3-4 problems keeping this team out of the playoffs this year:  1.) Cozens and Quinn's play (the single biggest problem), 2.)UPL having a bad start to the year, and 3.) the lack of a well-balanced veteran D-man for 2nd pair minutes.

As of this moment, if those above 3 things did not exist this year (or were 'fixed'), I think the play of the rest of the team is good enough to have them in a playoff spot right now, and with a somewhat weaker division, maybe even some fans eyeing more than just a 'wildcard' spot.

Edited 8 hours ago by mjd1001

[Doohicksie]

6 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

As of this moment, if those above 3 things did not exist this year (or were 'fixed'), I think the play of the rest of the team is good enough to have them in a playoff spot right now.

Earlier in the season, the style of play of the Sabres recent opponents (high pressure, contest every puck, disrupt the rush, etc.) would have meant doom.  Those teams aren't necessarily great teams, but the Sabres style did not match up well against teams that continually pressure.  We've only seen "typical" Sabres play in the first game of the streak against Boston- high power offense slicing through the other team.  The other three were more workman-like, giving up little defensively while capitalizing on limited offensive opportunities.

If the Sabres are ever going to be competitive in the NHL, they need to know how to play the latter style.  This is what Lindy is referring to as "grinding it out."

[caseydean]

17 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Sure, cause there was no time left on the clock afterwards was there. None of them were on the ice ever again. How utterly stupid and lame. 

There might be but I expect more likely is Olivier runs somebody early and laughs in their faces. 

So that was an interesting take.  By putting Olivier out to start the game--seemed unusual-- maybe the Jackets were saying we are going to run you out of the rink you bunch of pu*****.  And Gilbert recognized that and dropped the gloves to say "not tonight." Wishful thinking perhaps, but it kind of makes sense.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

The fight was a show to the league that we are a serious team. 😂 

The 3rd period is the way Lindy wants to play.  Rarely are two guys deep in the offensive zone, most of the shots are harmless, they back up into the neutral zone, than back into their zone, then back up around the goalie.  Then they fail to clear pucks, miss breakout opportunities, and ice the puck constantly.  After numerous lost defensive zone face offs they break down.  

They are among the worst in 3rd period scoring in the  league, and they have blown the lead more times than any other team.  

Lindy is teaching them how to “grind” (his words).  

Yeah.  Last night it worked, for the most part, because we were playing Columbus.  Had we been playing a better and healthier team, it may not have gone so well.  The Sabres wouldn't be the first team to play the "get a lead and then clog the neutral zone" style. There is some logic to them learning how to "grind" out points. But they don't seem built for this game. I assume Adams/Ruff imagined they would be getting more from Aube-Kubel and Lafferty and, of course, Greenway.  Weird to me though that the 13 game losing streak saw McLeod largely on line 4.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

That goals for vs goals allowed in there is telling and disappointing. Whenever neither of them are on the ice the team is a plus 15 in goal differential. When either of them or both of them, are on the ice they are a negative 10.

Basically, the team without Cozens and Quinn is actually pretty good. The moment either of them hit the ice they start 'losing'.

Defensively it is the most apparent. If you break down the stats per minute...the team is allowing 25% more goals per minute 5 on 5 and scoring 20% less 5 on 5 with either of them on the ice vs when anyone else is out there.  And this isn't a small sample size, this is for the entire year.

Last year I think the numbers weren't as bad as this year,  but still similar. When either of those 2 were on the ice the team had close to an even goal differential...when both were off the ice they were a positive 15.

Makes one wonder about the value of our analytics department.  Are they not doing their jobs or just not being listened to?  Cap space, especially on a team with an internal cap, has value.  Remove Cozens, Quinn, Samuelsson, and Joker from our line-up and that's over $15 million in cap space (more next season, with whatever raise Quinn will get). 

[PromoTheRobot]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Seriously????? You're going to move the goal post? "The Sabres reason for existence is to win the Stanley Cup." And you're happy about losing in the first round???

Keep trying. 😂

[Jorcus]

28 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Yeah.  Last night it worked, for the most part, because we were playing Columbus.  Had we been playing a better and healthier team, it may not have gone so well.  The Sabres wouldn't be the first team to play the "get a lead and then clog the neutral zone" style. There is some logic to them learning how to "grind" out points. But they don't seem built for this game. I assume Adams/Ruff imagined they would be getting more from Aube-Kubel and Lafferty and, of course, Greenway.  Weird to me though that the 13 game losing streak saw McLeod largely on line 4.

 

I don't see why this team can not play in third period defensive style. They pretty much did it the second half of last year. I thought they did a pretty fair job of it last night. It's more about puck puck possession and limiting chances. For most of the night they were making smart plays getting the pucks deep in the opposition corners then using speed to get to the puck. For the most part they only sent 1 forward deep in the 3rd. The last thing you want to do is run and gun with the Blue Jackets. 

I did feel there were some errors though. With 8 min left in the game Dahlin goes deep in the corner to fight for a puck. I think Peterka now has to cover the blue line. It's not ideal defense for that time and score. After the Blue Jackets scored on the next shift the Sabres did become more aggressive and Dahlin and Joker both made trips below the opponents goal line. There are only a few forwards on this team I trust to hold the blue line and when you are protecting a lead it becomes more important to think about plays like that. 

All in all they played a good game. Speed is the tool they have to use.

[Thorner]

For me, the line remains playoffs. Have always stuck with that. Now, that was never my line for praising the GM: making the playoffs once in 5 years would be the absolute bare minimum to simply avoid firing. We’ve averaged 76 points for the entirety of Adams’ tenure - the plan hasn’t gone well. But, as crazy as it seems since we are in 29th, if we make the playoffs*, if I was in charge I’d be a man of my word and retain Adams for next year.

*If the cutoff had stayed at like the 84 point mark it once was for a while and we had made it, you can call it goal post moving if you want but I would have been sorely tempted to renege on my statement due to the anomaly that type of qualifying would represent. But the Wings are pacing for 93 points now so that’s more less out the window 

if we make it, it’s full value, and as ever “we are what our record says”. And we’d be a playoff team. And Adams should get a 6th year 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But assuming we miss it’s tar AND OR feather 

Better go 22-7 and win the tiebreaker

[mjd1001]

51 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Makes one wonder about the value of our analytics department.  Are they not doing their jobs or just not being listened to?  Cap space, especially on a team with an internal cap, has value.  Remove Cozens, Quinn, Samuelsson, and Joker from our line-up and that's over $15 million in cap space (more next season, with whatever raise Quinn will get). 

I'll admit I do not like analytics all that much. There is value to it, but to me it just takes a truth you already know (or should know) and breaks it down to smaller parts.  Personally, i'm good with basic stats like Plus-minus, goals, assists, add to that the eye test and use a little common sense and you are 75% of the way there.

The analytics, I DO like the goals for and goals against. To me its kinda like taking the expected goals for and against that a lot of people like, but not disregarding shooting percentage.  

I'll say something that I have said before and I KNOW that poeple will disagree with me.  It has to be coming from above, Adams or Pegula (I personally think more Pegula, but it could be either) that is overriding the analytics.  Its something like this...Analytics dept: "Look Cozens is causing more harm than good. His goals against are bad. In every aspect we can measure his game, the team is better with him off the ice than with him on"....then....Pegula and/or Adams: "Great, I dont' care thoughI like Cozens so keep on playing him, I make the decisions/pay the bills".

There are two things that, in the limited view of the deeper analytics I have seen for sure: Almost EVERYONE has better numbers when Dahlin is on the ice with them....and almost  EVERYONE has worse numbers when Cozens is on the ice with them.

[Brawndo]

 

[Carmel Corn]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Makes one wonder about the value of our analytics department.  Are they not doing their jobs or just not being listened to?  Cap space, especially on a team with an internal cap, has value.  Remove Cozens, Quinn, Samuelsson, and Joker from our line-up and that's over $15 million in cap space (more next season, with whatever raise Quinn will get). 

Maybe a consolation prize of sorts is that Quinn’s next contract price should not break the bank, based on his so-so season.  I would still bridge deal him at a team friendly price, but no issue with removing Cozens, Muel and Joker (who will leave anyway).

[Thorner]

5 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

Like I mentioned in the other thread, at rate we are going we might find ourselves on the pace we need, find ourselves pulled even if we turn this 4 gamer into an 18 game streak.

[Carmel Corn]

9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'll admit I do not like analytics all that much. There is value to it, but to me it just takes a truth you already know (or should know) and breaks it down to smaller parts.  Personally, i'm good with basic stats like Plus-minus, goals, assists, add to that the eye test and use a little common sense and you are 75% of the way there.

The analytics, I DO like the goals for and goals against. To me its kinda like taking the expected goals for and against that a lot of people like, but not disregarding shooting percentage.  

I'll say something that I have said before and I KNOW that poeple will disagree with me.  It has to be coming from above, Adams or Pegula (I personally think more Pegula, but it could be either) that is overriding the analytics.  Its something like this...Analytics dept: "Look Cozens is causing more harm than good. His goals against are bad. In every aspect we can measure his game, the team is better with him off the ice than with him on"....then....Pegula and/or Adams: "Great, I dont' care thoughI like Cozens so keep on playing him, I make the decisions/pay the bills".

There are two things that, in the limited view of the deeper analytics I have seen for sure: Almost EVERYONE has better numbers when Dahlin is on the ice with them....and almost  EVERYONE has worse numbers when Cozens is on the ice with them.

I am a dinosaur, so I agree with your sentiment about analytics.  I still rely on my eyes more than pure data to assess a player.  Maybe a dumb question, but are there analytics that reflect a player’s “toughness” so to speak in terms of playing physical, aggressive, abrasive, etc.?

[Mr Peabody]

14 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

[mjd1001]

8 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

I am a dinosaur, so I agree with your sentiment about analytics.  I still rely on my eyes more than pure data to assess a player.  Maybe a dumb question, but are there analytics that reflect a player’s “toughness” so to speak in terms of playing physical, aggressive, abrasive, etc.?

That one I don't know...hopefully someone else will be able to answer that. Most of the analytics I even look at are more about positioning, shots, locations, etc.

[Stoner]

2 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

LOL this board is as broken as the team. The fight wasn’t good enough, the win wasn’t good enough, even if by miracle they made the playoffs they would just lose in the first round.😁

They got their 4th win in a row, this one without their star forward and number 1 goalie. I enjoyed the game.

Being happy with a win doesn’t mean you are happy with the franchise. There are a lot of issues that need to be fixed and it starts with Pegula and Adams.

You know darned well no fan is unhappy with a win unless there's a compelling reason. Isn't that reason obvious? If we had normal hockey people in charge, you wouldn't be concerned about a strong finish being used as justification to "stay the course." (Also, with normal fans, cover wouldn't be provided to the franchise to do such a thing, but fans are some combination of desperate and gullible.) There's a cold calculation that the more losses now, the better. Hey, it's Terry who taught us how to do it. Short term suffering yada yada. The wins don't build culture and they don't mean anything in October. I've been around since 75 and have banked the pleasure of countless wins. I can do no nut Feb Mar Apr with my eyes closed. Let's go Preds on Saturday. Let's get this thing turned around.