GDT: Preds @ Sabres, Goatheads, Rob Ray induction 7pm. MSG+, NHLN, WGR

[Kristian]

I certainly hope last nights loss isn’t taking away Ryan O’Reilly’s love of hockey…

[Stoner]

25 minutes ago, Thorner said:

 - - - 

Baker is just swimming in an embarrassment of riches. Over a decade of fattening up to the brim in the luxury sweet with prospect content 

the Elon musk of hockey prospects. No one has lived a more robust sporting life than Sabres prospect prognosticators since 2011

The most magical thing - when do you think the point was he and the others realized that it *literally* didn’t matter how these players and their prognostications turned out by way of the nhl, by way of team success? that the fawning over the prospects doing prospect things was the means to it’s end in itself?

the freedom.

or, better said: the Racket

Ike warned us about the Prospect Industrial Complex.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

9 minutes ago, Stoner said:

Direct line to Duffer too.

Age old question... booing or Dooging? Vogl reported it as booing back in the day.

I was considering the same thing but saw and heard some clear boos out there.  That said, Im not going to pretend I could even estimate the ratio of boos-to-doogs 😁  I’ve seen plenty of games with him singing the anthem and how loud it was definitely caught me off guard.  But maybe some people were also really excited to see him.  
 

He did sound great.  

 

 

[Thorner]

18 minutes ago, Stoner said:

Ike warned us about the Prospect Industrial Complex.

That he did 

“It just seemed that we were heading towards another…I don’t want to say rebuild but, we weren’t really in a position that we were going to try and win. I went to the team and said I wasn’t really happy with the idea of that. If that’s the route they wanted to take, maybe it would be better to move me, to use me as a jumpstart.”

 

[Stoner]

31 minutes ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

I was considering the same thing but saw and heard some clear boos out there.  That said, Im not going to pretend I could even estimate the ratio of boos-to-doogs 😁  I’ve seen plenty of games with him singing the anthem and how loud it was definitely caught me off guard.  But maybe some people were also really excited to see him.  
 

He did sound great.  

 

 

I heard boos FWIW. I also thought he sounded a fair bit worse than 5 years ago. Father Time is merciless.

[LabattBlue]

9 minutes ago, Stoner said:

I heard boos FWIW. I also thought he sounded a fair bit worse than 5 years ago. Father Time is merciless.

I thought he sounded great. That being said, he is still a 100x better than the American Idol wannabees they have been rolling out since they kicked him to the curb…and the organ accompaniment is sorely missed.  

[mjd1001]

15 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

Kulich is the real deal. If you watched him at the U18s, WJCs and in Rochester he is the guy that wants the puck on his stick in big moments and wants to score the big goal and often times he delivers.

Of all their younger players, Kulich and Benson are the two I wouldn’t move.

I'm cautiously more optimistic about Kulich than any of the other prospects, including Benson.

Let me take a quick step back in this discussion.  When we evaluate players, a lot of us, myself included like to look at just a portion of a season and project that for players. Such as "Peterka had 7 goals and 9 assists through the first 16 games, so that projects to a high 30 goal/80+ point guy... so that is who he is now"  or "Cozens scored 31 goals one season so that is who he is and its just a matter of time until he gets back there".   It doesn't always work out the way we want.

I THINK you can do that, at least a little, with Kulich this year. Its not going to be 100% accurate, but there are reasons to do it with him.  Kulich is a pretty decent (slightly above average) skater (decent speed, lots of effort), with a good shot and a very quick release. His strength appears to be shooting.   You want him to not pass up shots when he is open he likely has a better shot than most other players on the ice.  However, the first month-or-two of this season that is what he was doing, passing up things.  The coaches, and himself, may have KNOWN he had a better shot than some of his linemates, but he lacked a bit of confidence....or maybe he still thought he was the 'new guy' so he wasn't playing to his strengths.

The number of shots he took wasn't drastically different early in the year compared to more recently, but how much he carried the puck and the type of shots, to me, seem different. He seems more confident in his offensive game and I don't think that will go away (not to the extent of they way he was earlier in the year).

So how do the numbers break down? There seems to be a clear break where his game changed in mid-December pretty much right at the Montreal game where Pegula told them 'no changes':

First 22 games of the year:  3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points, 49 shots, -2. (82 game pace of 11 goals, 0 assists,11 points, 182 shots, -7)

15 games since mid Dec: 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points, 35 shots, +7 (82 game pace of 44 goals, 27 assists, 71 points, 191 shots, +38)

Now, do I think he has turned into a 44 goal, 70 point, +38 player? No. But that line between where his stats changed seems to be a bit more than something random used to make the numbers look good...its more of a point in the evolution of his game where he is playing with more confidence, something that is NOTICABLE to the eye when you watch him....not just something we say to justify an increase in production over a 15 game period.

 

 

 

[Stoner]

Please can we take these analyses in context? Opponents are often disinterested, it's their night to take off, it's the game they SHOULD win, and we're seeing our share of backups. Most importantly the games are absolutely meaningless in the standings for the Sabres. Zero pressure. You've got to take "kids getting hot" with a huge grain of salt. In normal hockey mode you could be excited about a prospect who might contribute in time on a balanced, winning, veteran team. But a lot of us have seen this film before. I mean, they're already using the kid to sell tix for tomorrow... for 20 bucks.

[LabattBlue]

All this Kulich is going to be great reminds me a lot of the “Quinn is going to be great” talk from two years again.  

[Flashsabre]

OK Fine. Kulich sucks. Send him down, or just terminate his contract like the Blues did with Saad. No need to waste everyone’s time.😝

[Stoner]

10 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

OK Fine. Kulich sucks. Send him down, or just terminate his contract like the Blues did with Saad. No need to waste everyone’s time.😝

He does suck. Hard. We just don't know it yet.

[Archie Lee]

23 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

All this Kulich is going to be great reminds me a lot of the “Quinn is going to be great” talk from two years again.  

It is a cautionary tale. Four years ago there were fans and media members unironically suggesting Cozens could replace Eichel as captain. Last off-season Quinn and Benson were the untouchable youngsters (some thought Quinn was our best forward). None of this is to say we should trade Kulich. 

As fans, we are not paid for our opinions. Eventually, if we are honest, we all will have  bad takes. But the GM is paid to sort the signal from the noise. It is Adams’s job to determine who to keep and who to move. He seems paralyzed by fear of a mistake. 

[Jorcus]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm cautiously more optimistic about Kulich than any of the other prospects, including Benson.

Let me take a quick step back in this discussion.  When we evaluate players, a lot of us, myself included like to look at just a portion of a season and project that for players. Such as "Peterka had 7 goals and 9 assists through the first 16 games, so that projects to a high 30 goal/80+ point guy... so that is who he is now"  or "Cozens scored 31 goals one season so that is who he is and its just a matter of time until he gets back there".   It doesn't always work out the way we want.

I THINK you can do that, at least a little, with Kulich this year. Its not going to be 100% accurate, but there are reasons to do it with him.  Kulich is a pretty decent (slightly above average) skater (decent speed, lots of effort), with a good shot and a very quick release. His strength appears to be shooting.   You want him to not pass up shots when he is open he likely has a better shot than most other players on the ice.  However, the first month-or-two of this season that is what he was doing, passing up things.  The coaches, and himself, may have KNOWN he had a better shot than some of his linemates, but he lacked a bit of confidence....or maybe he still thought he was the 'new guy' so he wasn't playing to his strengths.

The number of shots he took wasn't drastically different early in the year compared to more recently, but how much he carried the puck and the type of shots, to me, seem different. He seems more confident in his offensive game and I don't think that will go away (not to the extent of they way he was earlier in the year).

So how do the numbers break down? There seems to be a clear break where his game changed in mid-December pretty much right at the Montreal game where Pegula told them 'no changes':

First 22 games of the year:  3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points, 49 shots, -2. (82 game pace of 11 goals, 0 assists,11 points, 182 shots, -7)

15 games since mid Dec: 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points, 35 shots, +7 (82 game pace of 44 goals, 27 assists, 71 points, 191 shots, +38)

Now, do I think he has turned into a 44 goal, 70 point, +38 player? No. But that line between where his stats changed seems to be a bit more than something random used to make the numbers look good...its more of a point in the evolution of his game where he is playing with more confidence, something that is NOTICABLE to the eye when you watch him....not just something we say to justify an increase in production over a 15 game period.

 

 

 

 

I really like Kulich and think he a lot of upside to his game. It's hard to find any real flaws other than he could be a better playmaker. He has a great trigger which he has always been able to use even when he is under duress from the defense. To think he has gone from a non roster player to start the season, then a call up/4th line substitute, to 1st line center over the course of 51 games is astounding. That is a lot of jump even on this version of an NHL team. 

In a way he reminded me of when Thompson first got here before he was sent to Rochester. He was creating a lot of chances for himself but was just not putting them away. In the fist part of the year Kulich was creating a lot for himself but shots were getting saved time after time. Now things are going in and they are often important goals. 

What surprised me the most was how fast he is his year. I watched a few games in Rochester last year and he was not exactly burning up and down the rink. That was my biggest worry with him was weather he could keep up at the NHL level. So far no problem. He is good back checker and does a lot to bother opponents. He helps this team in a lot of ways.  

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm cautiously more optimistic about Kulich than any of the other prospects, including Benson.

Let me take a quick step back in this discussion.  When we evaluate players, a lot of us, myself included like to look at just a portion of a season and project that for players. Such as "Peterka had 7 goals and 9 assists through the first 16 games, so that projects to a high 30 goal/80+ point guy... so that is who he is now"  or "Cozens scored 31 goals one season so that is who he is and its just a matter of time until he gets back there".   It doesn't always work out the way we want.

I THINK you can do that, at least a little, with Kulich this year. Its not going to be 100% accurate, but there are reasons to do it with him.  Kulich is a pretty decent (slightly above average) skater (decent speed, lots of effort), with a good shot and a very quick release. His strength appears to be shooting.   You want him to not pass up shots when he is open he likely has a better shot than most other players on the ice.  However, the first month-or-two of this season that is what he was doing, passing up things.  The coaches, and himself, may have KNOWN he had a better shot than some of his linemates, but he lacked a bit of confidence....or maybe he still thought he was the 'new guy' so he wasn't playing to his strengths.

The number of shots he took wasn't drastically different early in the year compared to more recently, but how much he carried the puck and the type of shots, to me, seem different. He seems more confident in his offensive game and I don't think that will go away (not to the extent of they way he was earlier in the year).

So how do the numbers break down? There seems to be a clear break where his game changed in mid-December pretty much right at the Montreal game where Pegula told them 'no changes':

First 22 games of the year:  3 goals, 0 assists, 3 points, 49 shots, -2. (82 game pace of 11 goals, 0 assists,11 points, 182 shots, -7)

15 games since mid Dec: 8 goals, 5 assists, 13 points, 35 shots, +7 (82 game pace of 44 goals, 27 assists, 71 points, 191 shots, +38)

Now, do I think he has turned into a 44 goal, 70 point, +38 player? No. But that line between where his stats changed seems to be a bit more than something random used to make the numbers look good...its more of a point in the evolution of his game where he is playing with more confidence, something that is NOTICABLE to the eye when you watch him....not just something we say to justify an increase in production over a 15 game period.

 

 

 

Sometimes it's difficult to measure but the eye test  tells you that a player is playing with confidence or tentatively, without confidence. It appears to me that he is less tentative and willing to hold the pluck more and move to open space to get his sniper shot off. The one player that the confidence issue has been evident is Quinn. For much of the season, he was a shell of what he has previously played. It seems now that after going through a lull period that he is steadily playing up to his old form. He's still not there yet but he is moving in the right direction with respect to playing with confidence. You can also see the confidence level growing for Power who is much more inclined to get involved offensively. 

[JohnC]

3 hours ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

 

 

The only booing I heard all night was when Doug was singing the anthems.  It was loud and happened throughout.  

Doug Allen is not coming back.

Also, they did not show Terry and Kim, or KA, on the jumbo train during the game (at least that I noticed).  It seems the production team was playing it extra safe.

On TV, the camera showed Terry and Kim in their club box. I wish Kim the best. She is facing a major health challenge. It was nice to see her at the Razor event. 

[LTS]

5 hours ago, Stoner said:

Too bad it started so early. I wonder why. People do have jobs.

What's next? Do you Jiri-really have to ask? Behold the future.

I have not looked it up but I seem to recall that the NHL has begun pushing events to happen early enough that they won't interfere with the normal start time of the game. I think they allow for some ceremonial puck drops but anything that reaches the level of multiple speakers, etc. starts long before the game so that the game timing is not messed with too much.

It seems to me that this is a more recent trend as I used to recall seeing longer events where the opposition team is standing around on their bench waiting through the others teams event.

[PromoTheRobot]

 

[Crusader1969]

14 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

😂 I distinctly recall one failure was not signing Stamkos. 

But what if he doesn't?

We wjll have an owner that is disinterested and cheap and we will never see a Stanley cup and possibly not playoffs in our lifetime 

14 hours ago, pastajoe said:

Yet in your expert opinion you said he should do something that is not a realistic possibility. 😒

Why isn't sell the team realistic?  I'm sure there would be plenty of prospective buyers