What will be the Sabres approach at the trade deadline?

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Sure, Zucker's had a good year and we need veterans but we are a near bottom team and so you move EVERY UFA and you consider moving RFAs you don't want or aren't likely to sign for what you think they are worth. You do not stay the course when the course is failing. 

Obviously if you can't get anything for them you don't bother but hanging on to people for some sort of late season statement run is stupid and pointless. It does not carry over to the next season.

I understand your well reasoned positon but I'm not aligned with your thinking. My worry is that this inept organization, out of frustration, tears down too much instead of bringing in support players to better balance out this roster. This tear down to build up mentality has to stop. It has kept us stuck in the muck of mediocrity.  

[Thorner]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As I've pointed out the offense is not the problem.  We are 12th in the NHL in goals.  Keeping our forwards, especially a productive vet like Zucker makes sense especially for a tema devoid of veteran leadership.  I do agree that if he won't sign an extension before the deadline, then Adams has no choice but to trade him.  He is probably worth a 2nd rd pick plus a prospect.  You maybe able to up the compensation if Adams is willing to take a contract back to help the new team take Zucker's cap hit.  

The key to this deadline and this next off-season is fixing the defense.  The Sabres are currently tied for4th most goal against.  Byrson, Clifton, Jokiharju, Gilbert and even Power are expendable.  Yes even Power.  Adams should no longer be patient with anyone in this 3rd NHL season who hasn't improved at all defensively.

It’s not only the defenseman on the team that contribute to our awful team defence

THIS IS A RECORDING 

Edited February 5 by Thorner

[GASabresIUFAN]

39 minutes ago, Thorner said:

It’s not only the defenseman on the team that contribute to our awful team defence

THIS IS A RECORDING 

No it’s not all on the defensemen, but you have to start somewhere and Dahlin and now Byram have gone without adequate partners for far to long.

[Thorner]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No it’s not all on the defensemen, but you have to start somewhere and Dahlin and now Byram have gone without adequate partners for far to long.

I thought Byram was Dahlin’s partner 

[GASabresIUFAN]

38 minutes ago, Thorner said:

I thought Byram was Dahlin’s partner 

For now, but I don’t think it’s the long-term plan.

[PerreaultForever]

6 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

As I've pointed out the offense is not the problem.  We are 12th in the NHL in goals.  Keeping our forwards, especially a productive vet like Zucker makes sense especially for a tema devoid of veteran leadership.  I do agree that if he won't sign an extension before the deadline, then Adams has no choice but to trade him.  He is probably worth a 2nd rd pick plus a prospect.  You maybe able to up the compensation if Adams is willing to take a contract back to help the new team take Zucker's cap hit.  

The key to this deadline and this next off-season is fixing the defense.  The Sabres are currently tied for4th most goal against.  Byrson, Clifton, Jokiharju, Gilbert and even Power are expendable.  Yes even Power.  Adams should no longer be patient with anyone in this 3rd NHL season who hasn't improved at all defensively.

We've had the D conversation for years and it's still there. Too many puck movers, not solid defenders. I think I said in the preseason a lot of this year depended on whether or not Samuelsson bounced back and well, we see it has not gone well. We didn't sign decent D (NJ did) and the make up of the team as a whole is flawed. 

Back to Zucker though I just don't think it's that important. Sure, if you can't sign anybody else I'd take him back but I'd prefer we got other bodies to fill needs. I can easily see signing Zucker and being disappointed as he never matches this season going forward. So I flip him at the deadline and then his name goes into the free agent hat with the rest of them.

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, JohnC said:

I understand your well reasoned positon but I'm not aligned with your thinking. My worry is that this inept organization, out of frustration, tears down too much instead of bringing in support players to better balance out this roster. This tear down to build up mentality has to stop. It has kept us stuck in the muck of mediocrity.  

It's not a tear down. A tear down would be trading Dahlin or Thompson or major moves for future prospects. I'm simply looking at it practically. We sucked. We are one of the only teams not in it in the east (which is really sad since it was always Detroit, Ottawa, Buffalo all ready to rise and who will it be and it's them not us). You move out your UFAs and get what you can and then you also add free agents (same ones or different but you add and spend to the cap) and you trade prospects for veterans and you create a better roster than this year and not just leave it the same and wait for developing Rochester help. 

Probably won't happen, but it should. 

[EM88]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No it’s not all on the defensemen, but you have to start somewhere and Dahlin and now Byram have gone without adequate partners for far to long.

Dahlin and Byram are a great combo together.

If Power is staying here, then they need to find a really good veteran to pair him with.

That leaves your 3rd pair.  3rd pair is your 3rd pair, you do the best you can with it. Clifton, Samuelsson, Jokiharju, Bryson, or whoever you bring in or up will be fine for their 14-16 minutes per game as long as the top 2 pairs are playing how you need them.. The Dahlin and Byrum pairing is really good.  Just find the partner for Power now.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 2/6/2025 at 8:29 AM, EM88 said:

Dahlin and Byram are a great combo together.

If Power is staying here, then they need to find a really good veteran to pair him with.

That leaves your 3rd pair.  3rd pair is your 3rd pair, you do the best you can with it. Clifton, Samuelsson, Jokiharju, Bryson, or whoever you bring in or up will be fine for their 14-16 minutes per game as long as the top 2 pairs are playing how you need them.. The Dahlin and Byrum pairing is really good.  Just find the partner for Power now.

This doesn't work under the cap.  We cannot afford to spend $27 mill on 3 puck moving LHDs.  One of Byram or Power will have to go in order to fix the holes on this roster.  You cannot spend $27 mill, and still spend on a top 6 playmaker, good stay at home D, re-sign vets like Zucker and Greenway and pay the RFAs like JJP and McLeod.  There just isn't enough cap space.  

Also Dahlin and Byram are not a great pair.  Dahlin is great and is literally covering for the D shortcomings of everyone he plays with.  Put Dahlin with any of our D and their XGF turns positive, put that same D with anyone else and the opposite is true.  Power w Dahlin has a XGF of 70.24%, Byram with Dahlin XGF 53.6%, Dahlin w Joker XGF 54.72%, Dahlin with Clifton XGF 57.19, Dahlin w Samuelsson XGF 69.41.  In fact, Dahlin's xGF is better without Byram than with, although some of the sample size is small from this season

Byram w Joker xGF 35.88, Byram w Samuelsson XGF 41.68, Byram w Power 42.89, Byram w Bryson 46.89

Power's numbers are just as bad.  Face the fact that Power and Byram are not good defensively.  Keeping both would be a huge mistake.  Power is never going to play to the level of an $8.35 a year D.  His offense isn't good enough to justify that number and his defense it beyond awful.  

Edited February 7 by GASabresIUFAN

[mjd1001]

28 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Dahlin and Byram are not a great pair.  Dahlin is great and is literally covering for the D shortcomings of everyone he plays with.  Put Dahlin with any of our D and their XGF turns positive, put that same D with anyone else and the opposite is true.  Power w Dahlin has a XGF of 70.24%, Byram with Dahlin XGF 53.6%, Dahlin w Joker XGF 54.72%, Dahlin with Clifton XGF 57.19, Dahlin w Samuelsson XGF 69.41.  In fact, Dahlin's xGF is better without Byram than with, although some of the sample size is small from this season

 

I don't get those numbers.

When I look at this year, I get Power and Dahlin together at XGF of 51.5

Last year they were 56.76

The year before they were 60.0 (in limited minutes)

When I look at XGF% of Dahlin with Bryam I get 52.10% for last year and this year, not that much different than Power and Dahlin.

But more importantly to me than XGF% is actual GF%, not expected (takes into account shooting percentage and is not what could happen, but what actually does happen, my preference). Byram and Dahlin the last 2 seasons are 58.46.  Power and Dahlin over the last 2 seasons are 50.0. Now that is a measurable improvement of Bryam over Power when playing with Dahlin to me.

Basically over the last 2 years, I found Bryam-Dahlin with a slightly better XGF% and a much better GF% than the Power-Dahlin pair.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=ev&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8482671&p2=8480839&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=ev&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481524&p2=8480839&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

Edited February 6 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I don't get those numbers.

When I look at this year, I get Power and Dahlin together at XGF of 51.5

Last year they were 56.76

The year before they were 60.0 (in limited minutes)

When I look at XGF% of Dahlin with Bryam I get 52.10% for last year and this year, not that much different than Power and Dahlin.

But more importantly to me than XGF% is actual GF%, not expected (takes into account shooting percentage and is not what could happen, but what actually does happen, my preference). Byram and Dahlin the last 2 seasons are 58.46.  Power and Dahlin over the last 2 seasons are 50.0. Now that is a measurable improvement of Bryam over Power when playing with Dahlin to me.

Basically over the last 2 years, I found Bryam-Dahlin with a slightly better XGF% and a much better GF% than the Power-Dahlin pair.

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=ev&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8482671&p2=8480839&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20232024&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=ev&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2023-10-10&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8481524&p2=8480839&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0

You are using multi season numbers

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410

[mjd1001]

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You are using multi season numbers

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/pairings.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&loc=B&toi=0&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410

Well I looked at this years numbers, but multi-season tells a better picture.  Dahlin and Power haven't played that much together this year. To me the majority of the numbers (per my other post), especially the ones focusing on actual production,  show Dahlin better with Byram over Power....and to me watching the game and seeing how they play confirms that.

I don't know, I think Dahlin and Bryam are the best pair on this team by watching them, and many of the numbers support that.

Edited February 6 by mjd1001

[JohnC]

18 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

For now, but I don’t think it’s the long-term plan.

Why do you think that? 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Well I looked at this years numbers, but multi-season tells a better picture.  Dahlin and Power haven't played that much together this year. To me the majority of the numbers (per my other post), especially the ones focusing on actual production,  show Dahlin better with Byram over Power....and to me watching the game and seeing how they play confirms that.

I don't know, I think Dahlin and Bryam are the best pair on this team by watching them, and many of the numbers support that.

Different coach and system. So the 23/24 numbers aren’t  really relevant.  
 

Also just because Dahlin and Byram are our best pair, that doesn’t make them great or even good. They are the best of a terrible group.  No team that is in the bottom four in the NHL in goals allowed is good at defense.  
 

[Jorcus]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Well I looked at this years numbers, but multi-season tells a better picture.  Dahlin and Power haven't played that much together this year. To me the majority of the numbers (per my other post), especially the ones focusing on actual production,  show Dahlin better with Byram over Power....and to me watching the game and seeing how they play confirms that.

I don't know, I think Dahlin and Bryam are the best pair on this team by watching them, and many of the numbers support that.

 

I think this pairing has worked out very well. As much as Dahlin helps out Byram, Byram helps out Dahlin. Dahlin is a high risk vs reward type player in the offensive zone. He will often go deep in the corners or skate into different positions to help create offense. Byram is fast enough and smart enough to help stem counter attacks when they occur. On the other hand Dahlin is stronger in front of and behind the net. Because he is disruptive enough it allows Byram to get puck possession and help break back out of the zone. In a pre game interview on Saturday Byram was talking about how much he is working on the defensive side of game. I think you can see him growing into a very good all around player. I will take his long passing game breaking out of the zone over Dahlin's. He just has more touch where Dahlin kind of just rips it sometimes. I guess better too hard than too soft. The other thing to keep in mind is they not often on the ice with the top line. I think they have been using that pair to cover the 2nd or third line unless there comes a point in the game where the Sabres are behind then they are swapped to press on offence. I don't think Byram is going to sign a long term deal but at lest we should have a couple of years to give him a reason to stay.   

Edited February 6 by Jorcus

[Thorner]

 

[Stoner]

48 minutes ago, Thorner said:

 

I don't know how numbers work but given the relatively tight difference in the chances between making the playoffs and winning the first series, doesn't that mean if the Sabres make the playoffs they have a very good chance of winning the series? Things are looking up! (Or is someone calculating that if they make the playoffs they have less than a 1 percent chance of moving on?)

Damn that asteroid is going to ruin the first Sabres playoff watch series in a generation.

Edited February 7 by Stoner

[Pimlach]

On 2/3/2025 at 9:22 PM, Carmel Corn said:

Send Cozens for Mitts???

Nah.    

On 2/3/2025 at 9:40 PM, kas23 said:

Would love to trade Cozens for Mitts. We should’ve picked Mitts over Cozens in the first place. He played up and down our lines. 

In hindsight yes, but the thought was Cozens would return to the 30'ish goal Cozens, plus the size, etc.  

On 2/5/2025 at 12:21 PM, mjd1001 said:

That is a tough one I probably agree with you, but Mitts is not playing well at all there, production or defensively, he's not fitting in.

I think Cozens at wing is better than Mitts at center, which is better than Cozens at center. So long term, my thinking is comparing them, the best player is Cozens playing wing. But as we have gone over and over that isn't happening.

Fantasy world here, but if the trade were on the table I'd make it.  We do know Mitts was fitting in fairly well at Center on this team in the past, and his contract is less than Cozens, so that would sway me to making the deal.

Both players though, not good this year.

Mitts coming back does not do anything to change the culture in Buffalo, which needs changing.  Adding an old buddy is a lost opportunity to bring in a vet player with a better work ethic that might show them how to be an NHL professionals.  

On 2/5/2025 at 1:41 PM, JohnC said:

I would take him back but what would the exchange entail? If we did get him back I would make him our 2 or 3C and put Cozens on the wing where I think he is more suited. 

I am getting to like Byram more and more. But what happens if, as the cap goes up, he decides to play out his contract and seek a better situation for himself? Then the Mitts trade would turn out to be another boondoggle for our GM.

We got the better player in Bryam over Mitts, yet we did not improve the team.  The team needs a true 1C/2C  type of player - Bryam and/or Cozens can help us get that in a trade package.   Mitts is not cutting it as a 2C on a Cup contending team.   I say move on.  Mitts is a backwards move. 

 

[Crusader1969]

On 2/5/2025 at 7:40 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

For now, but I don’t think it’s the long-term plan.

I think you are wrong on this one 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

 

We got the better player in Bryam over Mitts, yet we did not improve the team.  The team needs a true 1C/2C  type of player - Bryam and/or Cozens can help us get that in a trade package.   Mitts is not cutting it as a 2C on a Cup contending team.   I say move on.  Mitts is a backwards move. 

 

If Bryam doesn't sign a deal when his contract is up then the deal doesn't look so good. I'm not advocating for a retrieval of Mitts. Just that I would be open to it if the price was right. You say that the Sabres need a 1C/2C type of player. Do you see KA making such a deal? I don't. 

I've repeatedly stated (So I apologize for the repetition) but what is more doable and less costly of adding a 1 or 2C from the market is adding two or three Zucker like players to the forward position and adding a rugged defensive/defenseman to that blueline unit. That was doable last offseason and should be doable this offseason.  

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Crusader1969 said:

I think you are wrong on this one 

Let me do the math for you.

If the Sabres run it back with the forwards by re-sign Zucker, Greenway, McLeod, Quinn, JJP and Kozak, the team will have 14 forwards under contract for $51638968 using AFP's contract estimates plus Skinner's buyout hit.  

If they re-sign Byram long-term and Reimer to back up UPL, the team will spend an additional $39764047 on 5D and 2G, leaving 2 roster spots open for additional D.

That brings the Cap to 91.4 million with zero upgrades on either offense or defense and almost no money to complete the roster. 

With Samuelsson's injury, I believe they can no longer buy him out.  There goes an opportunity to free up 3.5 in cap space.  

This is not a workable solution if this team is ever going to improve.  A few someones have to be traded.  

The media "experts" have Byram and Cozens on their deadline trade boards.  I'd prefer the Sabres to trade Power.  Regardless, If they trade Cozens and Byram or Cozens and Power, that removes 14-15 mill in cap cost for 25/26 allowing the Sabres to improve the D and find a playmaker for the top 6 forwards.

This analysis assumes that Pegula is willing to spend to the cap.  What if he sets the internal cap at 85 million? What then? 

Edited February 7 by GASabresIUFAN

[ska-T Palmtown]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Let me do the math for you.

If the Sabres run it back with the forwards by re-sign Zucker, Greenway, McLeod, Quinn, JJP and Kozak, the team will have 14 forwards under contract for $51638968 using AFP's contract estimates plus Skinner's buyout hit.  

If they re-sign Byram long-term and Reimer to back up UPL, the team will spend an additional $39764047 on 5D and 2G, leaving 2 roster spots open for additional D.

That brings the Cap to 91.4 million with zero upgrades on either offense or defense and almost no money to complete the roster. 

With Samuelsson's injury, I believe they can no longer buy him out.  There goes an opportunity to free up 3.5 in cap space.  

This is not a workable solution if this team is ever going to improve.  A few someones have to be traded.  

The media "experts" have Byram and Cozens on their deadline trade boards.  I'd prefer the Sabres to trade Power.  Regardless, If they trade Cozens and Byram or Cozens and Power, that removes 14-15 mill in cap cost for 25/26 allowing the Sabres to improve the D and find a playmaker for the top 6 forwards.

This analysis assumes that Pegula is willing to spend to the cap.  What if he sets the internal cap at 85 million? What then? 

The Mttis Smuelsson (removed the "a" ...see what i did there?) thread has been corrected to say he is not (yet) out for the season. FWIW.

[Flashsabre]

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/how-close-buffalo-sabres-trade-deadline-dylan-cozens-wild-canucks-flames
 

Someone check on Liger😁 They mention Rossi as an option for Cozens😛

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Flashsabre said:

Someone check on Liger😁 They mention Rossi as an option for Cozens😛

Turning the Sabres into the Lollipop Guild one player at a time.

[Flashsabre]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Turning the Sabres into the Lollipop Guild one player at a time.

Yeah I wouldn’t trade Muel for Brayden Point because Muel is taller. Brilliant Strategy