UPL- Part of the Problem

[LGR4GM]

9 hours ago, Taro T said:

When has UPL ever played better when being pushed?  Last year he was so bad in the preseason that he entered the year a distant 3rd on the depth chart which is right where he's ended the previous season.  If not for injuries, he might never have gotten a chance.  He didn't take his game to the level that got him his recent contract until Levi had become an after thought.  And then at the end of the year when Levi was back in the mix again, his play fell off.  Not claiming it was causation, but there was definitely correlation.

And as alluded to above, in the season prior, after Levi was signed, UPL played his way into the 3rd goalie role.

When there's been legit competition for the starter's job, UPL has tended to spit the bit.  It's when the net is his and there is no competition for the role that he's played his best in past seasons.

This year he didn't really start to play well until after Levi had the really bad game (against the BJ's IIRC).  He played his best 2 games of the year right after that and continued to play well enough after that that with the sparse game schedule he never really had to miss a start until the crease was his.  And by then Levi was playing maybe 1 game every 2 weeks and was no competition.  UPL's worst early season game came against Moe-ray-all when Levi had finally gotten some regular usage again and then when Levi got sent down, UPL's game picked up again. 

UPL seemed to go into his slump not when he didn't have competition any longer, but when Dahlin was out for an extended period.

 

And Adams still gave him a freaking 5 year deal. 

[nucci]

they're all part of the problem

[Archie Lee]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

When has UPL ever played better when being pushed?  Last year he was so bad in the preseason that he entered the year a distant 3rd on the depth chart which is right where he's ended the previous season.  If not for injuries, he might never have gotten a chance.  He didn't take his game to the level that got him his recent contract until Levi had become an after thought.  And then at the end of the year when Levi was back in the mix again, his play fell off.  Not claiming it was causation, but there was definitely correlation.

And as alluded to above, in the season prior, after Levi was signed, UPL played his way into the 3rd goalie role.

When there's been legit competition for the starter's job, UPL has tended to spit the bit.  It's when the net is his and there is no competition for the role that he's played his best in past seasons.

This year he didn't really start to play well until after Levi had the really bad game (against the BJ's IIRC).  He played his best 2 games of the year right after that and continued to play well enough after that that with the sparse game schedule he never really had to miss a start until the crease was his.  And by then Levi was playing maybe 1 game every 2 weeks and was no competition.  UPL's worst early season game came against Moe-ray-all when Levi had finally gotten some regular usage again and then when Levi got sent down, UPL's game picked up again. 

UPL seemed to go into his slump not when he didn't have competition any longer, but when Dahlin was out for an extended period.

 

My opinion is that your view of the pressure that a young goalie might, or might not, experience based on circumstance and personality, is faulty. The idea that the pressure comes off when the net is empty is flawed I think. But who knows what an individual player experiences. 

I recall, not from you, many “good riddance” posts when Ullmark left. 

UPL is tied with Ville Husso as the 20th highest paid goalie. 2-3 years from now I think his deal will be a bargain, whether for us or for the team we trade him to. His save % on the year is in the same zip code of Bobrovsky, Swayman, and Binnington. The Sabres are awful. Terribly managed. Too young. Poorly constructed. Below average coaching. UPL is not above criticism. But there is so much wrong with this organization before we get to UPL. 

[Pimlach]

UPL is the least of the problems with this roster.  His worst games have been same games when the five players in front of him get dominated.  

Watched Levi versus the Kraken on Monday and he did not look NHL ready.  Poor rebound control, net front traffic forces him deep into the crease leaving open spots to shoot at given small size.  

[Archie Lee]

18 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

UPL is the least of the problems with this roster.  His worst games have been same games when the five players in front of him get dominated.  

Watched Levi versus the Kraken on Monday and he did not look NHL ready.  Poor rebound control, net front traffic forces him deep into the crease leaving open spots to shoot at given small size.  

Agreed on Levi. I’m not out on him by any means. There is still some runway. I hope he goes back to Rochester and takes them on a long playoff run. In the off-season, hopefully a new GM gets a chance to objectively evaluate our goalie depth and make a determination on whether a vet needs to be brought in to challenge for one of the spots on the NHL roster. The environment in Buffalo has not been great for a goalie, let alone a young one.

Right now, the goalie from our recent past that Levi most closely resembles (to me), is Carter Hutton. His size forces him to be active. Being active can take him out of position. As you state, traffic pushes him deep, makes him small and susceptible to screens and deflections. I’m not sure he has the raw athleticism of a Saros, that will allow him to overcome this. I think he plays in the NHL. I don’t think he is the answer as a longterm #1. 

[PromoTheRobot]

On 1/18/2025 at 12:12 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

Among goalies that have played at least 25 games... Presumably all starting goalies, UPL is 19th out of 25 in goals saved above expected per 60. The team however is 15th in the league in goals for. 

I feel like he's played better when he's had a legit backup pushing him. 

This season is lost, but I feel like it needs to be made known that the net is anybody's next year.

 

Stats, shmats. The problem are the guys playing in front of UPL. They don't know how to defend their zone. Look at any replay of an opposing goal and some guy, if not multiple guys, get behind our defense and are all alone on our goalies. Sure they form a defensive box in front of the crease but they are just standing there watching other teams skate around them. It's hilarious.

The Sabres look EXACTLY like this in their end. 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 07:36 PM by PromoTheRobot

[PromoTheRobot]

The reason they called up Levi was to have a different goalie get shelled for once.

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

The reason they called up Levi was to have a different goalie get shelled for once.

Or Levi could have made a save.

[mjd1001]

38 minutes ago, Stoner said:

Or Levi could have made a save.

Yep.

UPL has been worse than last year. The team in front of him is bad, but to me he clearly is not playing as well as last year and letting in more bad goals.

[JoeSchmoe]

2 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Stats, shmats. The problem are the guys playing in front of UPL. They don't know how to defend their zone. Look at any replay of an opposing goal and some guy, if not multiple guys, get behind our defense and are all alone on our goalies. Sure they form a defensive box in front of the crease but they are just standing there watching other teams skate around them. It's hilarious.

The Sabres look EXACTLY like this in their end. 

 

 

If his guys stink in front of him he'll have a lot of expected goals and that will be reflected in the stats. 

Logan Thompson has saved 23.8 goals above expected. So when his D let's him down, he bailed the caps out almost 24 times (not exactly how the stat works but for illustrative purposes we can say this). UPL has let in all those goals, plus let in another one he should have had since he's a -1.1.

Right now UPL is 22 out of 28 in this stat (per 60min) for any goalie that's played 25 games or more. 

He's not the only problem, but as the thread title says... He's part of it.

Edited yesterday at 10:16 PM by JoeSchmoe

[Taro T]

On 1/21/2025 at 9:00 AM, Archie Lee said:

My opinion is that your view of the pressure that a young goalie might, or might not, experience based on circumstance and personality, is faulty. The idea that the pressure comes off when the net is empty is flawed I think. But who knows what an individual player experiences. 

I recall, not from you, many “good riddance” posts when Ullmark left. 

UPL is tied with Ville Husso as the 20th highest paid goalie. 2-3 years from now I think his deal will be a bargain, whether for us or for the team we trade him to. His save % on the year is in the same zip code of Bobrovsky, Swayman, and Binnington. The Sabres are awful. Terribly managed. Too young. Poorly constructed. Below average coaching. UPL is not above criticism. But there is so much wrong with this organization before we get to UPL. 

You do have one part of this correct - thought not giving Ullmark a longer than 1 year deal was a mistake (understandable due to the uncertainty of the state of the entire world at the time, but still a mistake) and hated that he left.

You are completely mistaken though in your understanding of my views on UPL.  The post you take issue with was dealing with 1 particular aspect of his play - and that is that he has not, contrary to the post that one was responding to, played better when having competition for the starter's role.  He's actually played at his best when there has been no legit challenger to him.  If you disagree wtih that, then go ahead and provide examples to the contrary.  THAT is the ENTIRETY of what the post you take issue with referred to.  That you make it into something it is not is on you.

[mjd1001]

18 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

If his guys stink in front of him he'll have a lot of expected goals and that will be reflected in the stats. 

Logan Thompson has saved 23.8 goals above expected. So when his D let's him down, he bailed the caps out almost 24 times (not exactly how the stat works but for illustrative purposes we can say this). UPL has let in all those goals, plus let in another one he should have had since he's a -1.1.

Right now UPL is 22 out of 28 in this stat (per 60min) for any goalie that's played 25 games or more. 

He's not the only problem, but as the thread title says... He's part of it.

It seems like a lot of the forum is splintering into 2 groups.  Defend UPL, he's totally fine and any problem with him is with those in front of him......

-or-

UPL is bad, He is what his current stats say he is and that is a bad goalie, the new contract was an awful decision.

 

I still think it is neither of those, its in the middle.   I think he is a good goalie (capable of being a good #1), he is someone that can on any given year has a ceiling to be a top 5-10 guy. But THIS YEAR his play isn't good.   Its not all on those in front of him.  HIS play is worse than it was last year. HE is allowing more soft goals than last year.  He has not been as good as last year, indepedant of the play around him.

That doesn't mean he can't be the #1 guy going forward, in my opinion he should be.  It just means that this year, HIS play has been below average overall.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On 1/21/2025 at 9:00 AM, Archie Lee said:

UPL is not above criticism. But there is so much wrong with this organization before we get to UPL. 

True.

 

[Dreams Burn Down]

21 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

The Sabres look EXACTLY like this in their end. 

Back in the day, I may or may not have been threatened with expulsion by arcade management for rocking and shaking the Super Chexx when this occurred.

[Archie Lee]

2 hours ago, Taro T said:

You do have one part of this correct - thought not giving Ullmark a longer than 1 year deal was a mistake (understandable due to the uncertainty of the state of the entire world at the time, but still a mistake) and hated that he left.

You are completely mistaken though in your understanding of my views on UPL.  The post you take issue with was dealing with 1 particular aspect of his play - and that is that he has not, contrary to the post that one was responding to, played better when having competition for the starter's role.  He's actually played at his best when there has been no legit challenger to him.  If you disagree wtih that, then go ahead and provide examples to the contrary.  THAT is the ENTIRETY of what the post you take issue with referred to.  That you make it into something it is not is on you.

Sorry to have come across as taking issue with your post.  I take no issue with it.  I just disagree with your view that UPL has "tended to spit the bit" when challenged. I would argue that every effort was made to give the job to Levi last season and that the net was never UPL's until UPL won the job. I would argue that once he won the job, as a young goalie without a long-term contract, his position was always precarious.  I would argue that the Sabres starting this past season by rotating UPL and Levi, made pretty clear that the organization still saw them as equals or close to equals. Your view is that UPL only started to play well this year when (because?) Levi played poorly. I don't see it that way. I think UPL is a young goalie who since getting to the NHL has been under constant pressure to win and keep a position (like probably all young NHL goalies). One might argue that there has not been "legitimate" competition for the starting position since UPL arrived in the NHL and that the only player to step up and take the starting role has been UPL.

 

[Taro T]

49 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Sorry to have come across as taking issue with your post.  I take no issue with it.  I just disagree with your view that UPL has "tended to spit the bit" when challenged. I would argue that every effort was made to give the job to Levi last season and that the net was never UPL's until UPL won the job. I would argue that once he won the job, as a young goalie without a long-term contract, his position was always precarious.  I would argue that the Sabres starting this past season by rotating UPL and Levi, made pretty clear that the organization still saw them as equals or close to equals. Your view is that UPL only started to play well this year when (because?) Levi played poorly. I don't see it that way. I think UPL is a young goalie who since getting to the NHL has been under constant pressure to win and keep a position (like probably all young NHL goalies). One might argue that there has not been "legitimate" competition for the starting position since UPL arrived in the NHL and that the only player to step up and take the starting role has been UPL.

 

To the bolded, to a certain extent, but not entirely.  Yes, his play picked up after Levi spit the bit vs the BJ's.  It absolutely did.  (But have NOT argued it is because of it.)  And, the pattern of his play picking up after there is no legit competition for him for the starter's role and taliling off when there is legit competition has shown through in 3 consecutive seasons.  And this year, his play has since fallen off even without legit competition for the starter's net while Levi has been in Ra-cha-cha and a guy nobody confuses for a starter is his primary backup.

As to your claim that there has been no "legitimate" competition for the starter's role, have you not seen how Levi has played when called up late in the past 2 seasons nor the drop off in UPL's performance at that same time?

Have made NO claim that there is causation there.  But the correlation is strong.  And that correlation flies in the face of the OP's post declaring that UPL is at his best when there is competition for the starter's net.  Is his play tailing when he isn't the defacto pure #1 due to causation?  Don't know.  It could simply be UPL gets burnt out late in the year and can't get himself into mental game shape until a couple/few weeks into the season or something else.  But the correlation is there.

Could go on with a lot of nuance about expectations for him, but have stated it all before several times and simply don't have the time, nor energy, nor desire to rewrite it all.  (And no, have no expectation that you or anybody else would remember what one particular poster on an anonymous message board has written likely months ago.  Merely stating why there is little (though some) chance that my participation in this particular line of dicussion will continue.)  (Cliff notes version: he has improved significantly in several areas physically since first playing in the NHL; he's picked up on the mental side of it too but nowhere near to the same degree.  Can he continue to improve those aspects as well?  Yes.  Will he / will he enough to be a legit starter in this league when he has a legit 1B goalie paired with him &/or when the team is playing "important" games on a consistent basis?  No f'n clue, and though there is hope he does, and do expect him to improve at that further, wouldn't have a mortgage payment riding on it.)