UPL- Part of the Problem

[JoeSchmoe]

Among goalies that have played at least 25 games... Presumably all starting goalies, UPL is 19th out of 25 in goals saved above expected per 60. The team however is 15th in the league in goals for. 

I feel like he's played better when he's had a legit backup pushing him. 

This season is lost, but I feel like it needs to be made known that the net is anybody's next year.

 

[Pimlach]

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Among goalies that have played at least 25 games... Presumably all starting goalies, UPL is 19th out of 25 in goals saved above expected per 60. The team however is 15th in the league in goals for. 

I feel like he's played better when he's had a legit backup pushing him. 

This season is lost, but I feel like it needs to be made known that the net is anybody's next year.

 

True.  And it should apply to every player.  I mentioned early in the GDT that it might be good game for Reimer to play.  

UPL has had too many rough games.  Most of them he started out good, kept them in, and then failed under relentless 3rd period pressure and a collapse by the skaters in front of him.  

We know he can better but right now I look more at the lack of support.  

Lets look at how many of the Adams core got paid and then followed up with a big drop off the next season(s).   Muel, Tage, Cozens, UPL, ...

[JoeSchmoe]

10 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

We know he can better but right now I look more at the lack of support.  

The expected save stat supposedly accounts for the lack of support. 

You're right that he starts out good then falters later in the games. Maybe he's tired, something the stat doesn't track... But we're 17th out of 32 in shots against. Not great, but not bottom of the league either. Presumably, he shouldn't be any more tired than any other goalie in the league.

Edit- I didn't realize I was looking at 5 on 5 shots against. All situations, we're 24 out of 32 in the league for shots against. Maybe he is getting tired. Is it time for us to introduce to the league the "relief goaltender".

Edited 5 hours ago by JoeSchmoe

[K-9]

Like most mediocre goalies, Oopie is capable of a hot game and even a hot stretch of games before he comes crashing back to earth. He simply doesn’t make the key saves at the critical moments often enough. Support or no support, being able to do that consistently is the mark of a good starting goalie. I think he’s not much more than a decent backup who can give you 25-30 games in a season. Among several other things, we need a legit starting caliber goalie. 

[mjd1001]

I agree.

I don't think he is bad, or it was a 'mistake' to make him the #1 going into the year.  I think he's still potentially a good #1 guy, but his play this year is one of the top 3 reasons for the failures of this team.

The "eye test", watching the games and not even looking at the stats tells me he is letting in a lot more soft goals this year than last. Sure, this year he has had some good games too, but his ratio of good games to bad games was better last year than this year.

So if the 'eye' test tells us he isn't playing as well, what do the simple stats tell us?  If he matched is GAA from last year, he would allow about 15 less goals this year so far than last year.  Save percentage?  13 less goals so far. 

When you look deeper into the advanced stats, like high danger save percentage, shots faced and where they are coming from...they pretty much all point to the same thing.

Now, one might say that the defense in front of him, the positions he is put into have not been good this year. True, but it wasn't good last year either.   My impression of his play is that he is letting in more soft goals this year than last, and the numbers back that up.

So problems with the Sabres this year....there are many....but his play has been a let-down at times.  UPL playing exactly has he played last year and this team allows 10-15 less goals this year. Enough to give them a few more wins.

Not the 'biggest' problem, but I'd put it 3rd on the list:

Problem #1:  Cozens play/lack of a quality 2nd line

Problem #2:  Lack of a GOOD veteran D-man who can play top 4 minutes

Problem #3:  Below average goaltending.

Edited 5 hours ago by mjd1001

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Among goalies that have played at least 25 games... Presumably all starting goalies, UPL is 19th out of 25 in goals saved above expected per 60. The team however is 15th in the league in goals for. 

I feel like he's played better when he's had a legit backup pushing him. 

This season is lost, but I feel like it needs to be made known that the net is anybody's next year.

 

UPL, like 80% of the roster, has not been good enough this year, relative to expectation. Like most players on the team, he would benefit from being in a better environment, surrounded by better players and coaching. We are not talented enough as a team to overcome our deficiencies (youth, inexperience, lack of “grit”, below average coaching in my view). UPL’s game has suffered because of this. He certainly bares some responsibility, but there is almost nobody on our roster who is truly thriving. 

Re: xga stats, I think they are meaningful, but they will generally not account for all factors. For example, unless I’m mistaken, they don’t account for volume of shots in a period of time. 25 shots spread over a game might result in an xga of 2.04. Take those exact same 25 shots and put them in a 20 minute period and the xga is the same (I think, somebody correct me if I’m wrong on that). But they are not the same thing. Bad teams put their goalies in bad positions more frequently and for longer and more intense durations. 

[Mango]

Meh, both metrics are in the middle third. If it’s 11th and 20th I’d start to point more fingers at the differential. 

But a huge part of the problem is we have invested a ton into a defensive corp that as a knack for hanging this defense out to dry. 

[Pimlach]

10 minutes ago, Mango said:

Meh, both metrics are in the middle third. If it’s 11th and 20th I’d start to point more fingers at the differential. 

But a huge part of the problem is we have invested a ton into a defensive corp that as a knack for hanging this defense out to dry. 

This is true.  If they keep Byram the dollars invested on the defenseman will be even more pronounced.  

I think if the team is going to be retooled then Mule and Joker need to go.  I would not miss either.   Today there is a big focus on puck moving defenseman, we have 3 of them, lets add some better defensive defenseman that can clear out the front of the net, add a physical presence, and win puck battles.  

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Re: xga stats, I think they are meaningful, but they will generally not account for all factors. For example, unless I’m mistaken, they don’t account for volume of shots in a period of time. 25 shots spread over a game might result in an xga of 2.04. Take those exact same 25 shots and put them in a 20 minute period and the xga is the same (I think, somebody correct me if I’m wrong on that). But they are not the same thing. Bad teams put their goalies in bad positions more frequently and for longer and more intense durations. 

I'm not saying they have no use at all, but xga shots, its only from the location on the ice, it doesn't account for other factors?

If you are a good defensive team, you may allow one xga shot just like a bad defenisve team does, but the good team will make sure that shot is rushed, or they kept their assignments and aren't causing a screen in front of the goalie.  Also, the Caliber of the shooter. A full healthy Tage Thompson (or at the highest end Draisaitl) has the same XGA contributing value as a poor shooter.

 

[Big Guava]

UPL doesn't make the save that keeps them in games enough and when that doesn't happen he often lets in one or two more questionable ones in quick succession.

Edited 2 hours ago by Big Guava

[Crusader1969]

Let's Hope Levi is the guy 

Needs a big Calder Cup run this spring and maybe give him the net in sept.  Assuming he continues to dominate the AHL

[PerreaultForever]

It's not UPL's fault, the D sucks. UPL is inconsistent, but I think he has kept us in more games than lost us games this year. There aren't many players on this roster playing up to their expected level this year is there. I guess you could say Kulich has given more now than expected at this stage but that's about it. 

There is no one on this roster who I wouldn't consider trading in the right deal.  There are no heart and soul guys or untouchables. 

[Night Train]

It's partially him. Power and Muel have size like Tarzan but play like Jane in their own end. Joker has to go. Dahlin, Byram and Clifton are keepers but they need more grit in the other slots. 

 Yet the forwards have to play D also and are not playing well at all as a whole. Too soft . Trades needed badly to reshape several slots.