Developing the Center Spine

[DarthEbriate]

I wanted to do a deep dive into this last week, but it quickly became a bunch more research and reviewing lines than I had time to do. It was like a Sabres practice/game when Darth Pegulas makes a visit -- why bother with the effort?

My main thought was, as Eichel got moved out for the new core, the team made a very concerted effort to shape Krebs into a defensive center. Meanwhile, they also had Cozens as a center, but they never gave him the same consistency. I think it set the foundation for where Cozens is today. So here is the half-assed deep dive to look at their linemates/deployment in great detail and compare/contrast.

TL;DR?

Keep reading, learn to play defense!
I'll post this while you're all distracted by the Bills.

 

Background: The 2020-21 COVID Half-Season
Age: Cozens 19

The season started in January 2021. It was a mess and everything was disheveled. Girgensons got hurt in the opening scrimmage and Eichel got injured during the season.  Cozens makes the opening day lineup. Krueger got fired; Granato takes over. With Krueger as coach --- they're garbage, and Cozens is mostly a winger. He's got bottom 6 time, but also is alongside Staal in several games. Then, Granato takes over and in his first game: it's Hall-Cozens-Reinhart. Immediately 1C. It doesn't last and Cozens is quickly back to bottom 6 and constant line-shuffling because of COVID. His most consistent linemate is long-term NHL veteran Arttu Ruotsalainen. 😇   But again, COVID, coach/roster shuffling is constant. And really, Cozens shouldn't have even been in the NHL; he should have been in Juniors where he belonged, but COVID.

 

2021-22
Age: Cozens 20, Krebs 21

The season begins and Granato has a plan!
Game 1:
Bjork - Cozens - Caggiula. Two defensive forwards/grinders with some years of experience and kid center. 4th line. Limited minutes. Good job, Granato.
But during that game, Mitts -- who won the 1C job in camp -- gets his wrist hacked in half.

10/16/2021 Game 2
Plans, schmans. Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face Mitts gets slashed.
Skinner - Cozens - Hinostroza
Cozens went from 4C to 1C in one game. Big surprise, it doesn't work.

11/4/2021
Caggiula - Cozens - Hinostroza
So here's where we the Concept of Cozens as 200' center and we see potential. It's back to bottom 6, 3C checking focus, with two solid grinder/experienced linemates. This line lasts a month, and during the stretch we get the great game vs. McDavid. Cozens scores the 2 goals, he latches on to McDavid and uses his speed. This is what he can become. But it doesn't last.

11/26/2021
Murray - Cozens - Okposo
This line also lasts for a bit, but eventually Cozens ends up on the COVID list and he's replaced by....

12/29/2021
Murray - Krebs - Okposo
Krebs takes Cozens' spot for his NHL debut, then he returns to Rochester.

Then there's a leaguewide COVID pause.

1/13/2022
Skinner - Cozens - Tuch
All that effort to help Cozens (age 20) learn to be a mindful center in bottom 6 minutes goes out the window. Returning from the pause, with Tuch in the lineup, he's 1C again.

And here's where it falls apart. Okposo and Girgensons both end up on the injured list and thus the Eakin defensive line is broken up. Granato just throws everything in a blender, joining them up a few times.

1/20/22   
Krebs - Cozens - Tuch

1/29/22
Krebs - Mittelstadt - Bjork
Butcher (D) - Cozens - Hayden

2/23/22 
Krebs - Mittelstadt - Cozens
In his age 23 season, Mitts gets the 21- and 20-year-olds. Granato says: "Kids lines gonna kid."

Finally, things settle down and the injuries smooth out.

3/10/22 
Krebs - Cozens - Hinostroza   
Cozens gets reunited with his best partner in Hinostroza, but Caggiula is injured and out for the year. Krebs replaces him and this line gets kept together for most of March 2022. Mittelstadt has gotten healthy and is 2C and the top line of Skinner-Thompson-Tuch is actually a thing. The foundation is laid for the next season -- Cozens as 3C and the veteran Hinostroza on his wing. Perhaps Krebs is even on the left wing to be a 1st round talent version of Caggiula. That's the plan, right?

Incorrect. Because in April, there's an effort to get Krebs to be a center.

4/12/22  
Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo
Hayden - Cozens - Hinostroza
This is sometime close to the debut date of G-K-O.

The issue here is that your bottom 6 is two baby centers, not someone you'd trust to take a D-zone face off. They can't BOTH be bottom 6 centers, right?

4/29/22
Mittelstadt - Cozens - Tuch
Bjork - Krebs - Hayden
Just a touch of fun for RJ's Last Call. Mitts on the wing? Eakin and Okposo are out, but still, it was just a jumble. Mitts gets the OT game-winner with an assist from Cozens.

 

All the above is just to show, it's a jumble to figure out what could work. Whether from COVID or injuries or coaching changes and trying to figure it all out. Cozens still doesn't know exactly where he belongs and Krebs was acquired for Eichel so he has to play center. 

 

2022-23 Season - the 91-point season
Age: Cozens 21, Krebs 22

This is the season where it all sort of works, except for Cozens' long-term development. TNT is the 1C and Mittelstadt plays everywhere in the middle 6. There are variations for injury and some shuffles during the early losing streak and after the trade deadline as they weave Greenway into the lineup. But here is the basic crux of all the issues from the Granato era. These lines play most of the season together.

Peterka - Cozens - Quinn
Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo (sometimes Hinostroza when KO out)

One core piece gets groomed by established veterans to be responsible and play a grown-up game. He's less talented with a much lower ceiling, but he's given a role. Be defensively sound. Here are the guys that will help you do that.

The other core piece who needs lots of grooming and guidance is given two 20-year-old rookies as his wings and told to just go. It works, but at what long-term cost to all three of them?

I will note that on opening night of 22-23 it was Krebs-Cozens-Peterka (Hinostroza a healthy scratch) and days later Peterka-Cozens-Hinostroza. But Hinostroza's veteran presence got moved out and Krebs got to center his own line.

 

2023-24 Season - Granato Emphasizes Defense and the Regression
Age: Cozens 22, Krebs 23
Salary: Cozens $7.1M

So now Quinn is injured and Cozens is earning $7M a year. Cozens needs to play 2C and be on PP1 to justify the salary. But, no replacement for Quinn because reasons. So here's the opening night line:

10/12/2023
Peterka - Cozens - Olofsson
I mean, on the one hand, it's the most logical line based on the roster. Put the goal-scorer on the 2nd line. But... Granato is going to emphasize defense this season and the most responsible defensive forward on the line with age 22 Cozens and age 21 Peterka -- your future core -- is Victor Olofsson. Noted Selke candidate Victor Olofsson. (And I like VO. He's a great story with 20G potential in the right circumstances.) This is the plan? It's VO, the guy who HCDG scratched once Greenway was acquired because VO wasn't trustworthy defensively and would flee the zone immediately for rush chances as he had been coached by HCDG to do all year. Sigh.

Girgensons - Krebs - Okposo
Right back at it on opening night

Then, yes, there's some shuffling for injuries while Girgensons is injured (Kulich debut, Robinson) and then it devolves into chaos after the trade deadline and Krebs gets work with Rousek, Olofsson, Skinner, Peterka, and Greenway in his audition as a top 6 center which doesn't fare all that well. But essentially, its Girgs-Krebs-Okposo all season when healthy.

Meanwhile, until Quinn returns from injury, Cozens just shuffles every couple of weeks. Usually center, sometimes wing. Who is teach whom to be consistent and emphasize team structure and defense?

11/3/23   Rousek - Cozens - Tuch
11/10/23   Skinner - Thompson - Cozens
11/25/23   Benson - Cozens - Peterka  -- lasts a bit
12/19/23   Cozens - Mittelstadt - Peterka

12/21/23  

Peterka - Cozens - Quinn
The kid line is reunited and together 1 month before another Quinn injury.

From there on out, the most common alignment is:
Benson - Cozens - Peterka
Where the most responsible defensive player who will cover for a pinching defenseman and keep stable positioning is Benson.

4/5/24
Benson - Cozens - Quinn
The season ends as such.
 

At age 19, Cozens should've gotten another development year in (COVID-canceled) juniors. At age 20, he should have been in Rochester for half the season to round his game as a center if that's what they wanted him to become.

But the real issue is Krebs is part of the core and he got Girgensons and Okposo for basically 2 years to help him learn to be a center in the NHL. Cozens got kids younger than him. His only consistent "mentors" was half a season of Caggiula and Hinostroza. Cozens is to blame for failing to learn to chase after the puck carrier everywhere. But, the real blame as always falls on GM Sheevyn and the coaching staff for failing to develop an asset from raw talent to hockey player.