ESPN Article on the Sabres

[Pimlach]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

At the beginning of Pegula's Reign, they were trying to win, so that is the starting point. I was simply bringing it up to say at any given point, what are the statistical odds.

Even if some teams are 'better than others so they have a better chance, well, that is the whole point of this. The Sabres are and have not been one of those better teams. So the argument that other teams have better odds because they are better, isn't that the point of just how bad the pure numbers are....because other than the tank years, the sabres were trying to win.

Oh, and the "tank" that they went through, that was their attempt to, a few years later (and during the statistical streak), in their minds GUARANTEE they would be making the playoff every year.  Take a long enough sample size, and the numbers and circumstances statistically even out. Basically, if you remove the years they 'weren't trying' from the equation, that should actually swing things back in the other direction and even the numbers out a few years later when they are 'enjoying' the benefits of what you got for not trying.

Also, I think to say they weren't trying to win most years isn't accurate. 2 years leading up to the McDavid draft yeah, that qualifies.  But even the years they drafted Dahlin and Power, I don't think they were full-on 'tank' years. It was just they were bad.  

And finally, almost every year, there are teams 'not trying to win'.  So on the years the Sabres ARE trying to win, there are other teams 'not trying', so that should increase their odds even more in those years.  I think it all washes out and the numbers still hold somewhat close to being true.

Remember, this is 'Hockey heaven' The reason this franchise exists is to not only make the playoffs but to win the cup.

 

I hear ya.  I just don't see that the Pegula era has seriously ever tried to win.  

[Archie Lee]

14 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

 

I hear ya.  I just don't see that the Pegula era has seriously ever tried to win.  

There were seasons (yr 2 with Eichel, yr 1 with Krueger, this year), where it seemed the outward intent was to win. They have never got to the place where they did the combination of the right things (planning, coaching, roster construction), where winning was realistic. Perhaps that’s the point. It shows just how bad our management (starting with the owner) has been. Had we just had average level competency in management, we likely at least fluke a spot, kind of like the Caps did last year. Heck, we almost grabbed a spot by fluke 2 years ago, with a GM who has since proven he does not know how to construct a playoff calibre roster. 

[JohnC]

32 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

There were seasons (yr 2 with Eichel, yr 1 with Krueger, this year), where it seemed the outward intent was to win. They have never got to the place where they did the combination of the right things (planning, coaching, roster construction), where winning was realistic. Perhaps that’s the point. It shows just how bad our management (starting with the owner) has been. Had we just had average level competency in management, we likely at least fluke a spot, kind of like the Caps did last year. Heck, we almost grabbed a spot by fluke 2 years ago, with a GM who has since proven he does not know how to construct a playoff calibre roster. 

The difference between the Caps and Sabres is that the Caps over the past couple of years made a number of mid-level transactions (no blockbuster deals) that made their roster more well-round and tougher to play. They exhibited a level of competency that doesn't exist with the Pegula regime. Now, they likely will make the playoffs, and it won't be considered a fluke. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

 

I hear ya.  I just don't see that the Pegula era has seriously ever tried to win.  

"Trying hard enough" to win I'll agree with you on.

Its like he made one push with tank to be good, when that didn't work, add to his ownerhsip of the Bills, and it turned into "sole reason for existence is to win the cup" and went to "how can I try to make this work on a budget"

[ska-T Palmtown]

I will tack this one on at the end: ESPN's mid-season grades:(ESPN+, so I snipped it for ya)

"Every bright spot is swiftly darkened by another poor showing" ... yup.

I am curious for @mjd1001, our President of the "Not a Fan of Cozens" Club ... I don't recall the 18 powerplay goals in your in-depth looks. That is alarming that over 50% of his breakout season goals were powerplay ... and now they can't buy a goal.

Edited January 14 by ska-T Palmtown

[Archie Lee]

14 minutes ago, ska-T Palmtown said:

I will tack this one on at the end: ESPN's mid-season grades:(ESPN+, so I snipped it for ya)

"Every bright spot is swiftly darkened by another poor showing" ... yup.

I am curious for @mjd1001, our President of the "Not a Fan of Cozens" Club ... I don't recall the 18 powerplay goals in your in-depth looks. That is alarming that over 50% of his breakout season goals were powerplay ... and now they can't buy a goal.

Incredible that they get a D and not an F. This was a playoff year, per the GM (in his 5th year, none in the playoffs). And we are in dead last in the East. 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, ska-T Palmtown said:

I will tack this one on at the end: ESPN's mid-season grades:(ESPN+, so I snipped it for ya)

"Every bright spot is swiftly darkened by another poor showing" ... yup.

I am curious for @mjd1001, our President of the "Not a Fan of Cozens" Club ... I don't recall the 18 powerplay goals in your in-depth looks. That is alarming that over 50% of his breakout season goals were powerplay ... and now they can't buy a goal.

They made a mistake.

He had 18 Power play POINTS that year, but only 5 power play goals.

For his career, he has 11 power play goals.

Whoever wrote that article must have looked at the stats for that year and mistaked PP points for goals. 

Part of my not being a fan of Cozens is  being perplexed why he is on the PP. He has been on virtually every single powerplay over the past 3-4 years, being 2nd or 3rd in PP minutes among forwards (at one point a few weeks ago he was first this year).  The Stats don't support it.  If he plays just about every single PP, why does he have 1 Powerplay goal every 29-30 games.....those are his stats. Now watch him on the PP. He doesn't have the ability to get the puck and look around and make a great pass.  When he gets the puck in a 'high danger' area its almost always a shot.....even if that shot needs to go through 2 defenders forming a wall in front the goalie or the goalie is perfectly set for the shot.  I like to say he's a "black hole"...the puck goes in to him but it hardly ever comes back out....He'll take the shot and get credit for that 'high danger chance' that analytic guys so much like even if in reality he's rushing a shot and a teamate is open for a better chance.

He lacks the ability to think, or react other than just that, a reaction.  Its why not only is he not good at scoring on the PP, but he doesn't often set up other guys and help his teammates perform better on the PP.

 

Edited January 14 by mjd1001

[ska-T Palmtown]

13 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

They made a mistake.

He had 18 Power play POINTS that year, but only 5 power play goals.

For his career, he has 11 power play goals.

Whoever wrote that article must have looked at the stats for that year and mistaked PP points for goals. 

Part of my not being a fan of Cozens is  being perplexed why he is on the PP. He has been on virtually every single powerplay over the past 3-4 years, being 2nd or 3rd in PP minutes among forwards (at one point a few weeks ago he was first this year).  The Stats don't support it.  If he plays just about every single PP, why does he have 1 Powerplay goal every 29-30 games.....those are his stats. Now watch him on the PP. He doesn't have the ability to get the puck and look around and make a great pass.  When he gets the puck in a 'high danger' area its almost always a shot.....even if that shot needs to go through 2 defenders forming a wall in front the goalie or the goalie is perfectly set for the shot.  I like to say he's a "black hole"...the puck goes in to him but it hardly ever comes back out....He'll take the shot and get credit for that 'high danger chance' that analytic guys so much like even if in reality he's rushing a shot and a teamate is open for a better chance.

He lacks the ability to think, or react other than just that, a reaction.  Its why not only is he not good at scoring on the PP, but he doesn't often set up other guys and help his teammates perform better on the PP.

I'll add that he seems to cough the puck up a lot. Like, A LOT. I knew I was correct in summoning you for that wonky stat! Thanks!

(on the topic of coughing up the puck a lot on the powerplay, can we end the TT at the point thing? holy cow is he bad there.)

[mjd1001]

24 minutes ago, ska-T Palmtown said:

I'll add that he seems to cough the puck up a lot. Like, A LOT. I knew I was correct in summoning you for that wonky stat! Thanks!

(on the topic of coughing up the puck a lot on the powerplay, can we end the TT at the point thing? holy cow is he bad there.)

I think TNT At the point might be related to his injury. He can't take faceoffs, and I think they are moving him off the wing due to that also.

Not only is his one timer great on the side, but even if the other team covers it up, to do that they open up the ice for the other 4 guys out there on the PP. I too would rather see him back on the wing.

Back to Cozens....The other stat I never looked up until now...PP goals for per 60 on ice (not PP goals per 60, that is individual, the goals FOR is about when you are on the ice). Meaning, how many goals does your team score on the PP when you are on the ice, whether you score it , you have an assist, or are just on the ice creating havoc in front of the net.  Now the key thing with this stat is, since you are sharing the ice with the same teamates a lot of time the numbers should be close with other players on your team. But that is good for evaluation. Even a SLIGHT increase or decrease in your numbers will say that the few times you are out there with 'other guys' you are potentially helping, or hurting them more than other players on the team.

For his career heas at 7.55. Behind Tuch, Thompson, Skinner, and Mitts. If when they share the ice their numbers are the same, that means in games where Cozens is out (injury) or where the are on different units, those guys perform better with him NOT on the ice with him. (I am only looking at forwads here, BTW Tuch's numbers on the PP have droped SIGNIFICANTLY in the past 1.5 years, something to watch.)

Now, him, and some of those guys were different players if you go back 4-5 years ago, so how about recently? This year he is at 6.17. Thompson is 8.79, Zucker 9.12, Peterka 10.14, Quinn 7.63... only Tuch has fallen behind him this year.  My math may be a bit 'wonky'...but let say him and Thompson are on the PP together 50% of the time. Their numbers would be the same for that time on that ice. That means the other 50% of the time, the differnece between the 2 would double.  I don't know the exact time they share on the PP together, but whatver the numbers are, those guys perform better statistically with him not on the ice with him as they do when he is out there with him.

So yeah, I get I'm the president of the "Cozens needs to go" fanclub. But how can a guy score 1 goal every 29 games on the PP.....have his numbers be worse than most other forwards in terms of Total goals for per 60 ont he PP (meaning he brings down the other guys when he is on the ice, both this year and for his career?)  How can he still be getting PP minutes?

Oh, and the thing I posted about his games missed last year after he got hurt against philly. Small sample size, but in the 3 games before he got hurt with him on every PP, sabres didn't score a single PP goal. 2 games he missed they scored a PP goal in both games. 3 or 4 games after he got back with him on the PP, they team didn't score a single PP goal again.

Here is one other stat...Over the time he has been in the NHL, he is one of 103 forwards that have recorded more than 700 minutes of ice time on the Powerplay.  He is last of those 103 players in PP goals scored.  103 guys, he is 103rd in goals. In points, he is 101st out of 103, but the two guys behind him have less assists but a lot more goals.

Edited January 14 by mjd1001

[ska-T Palmtown]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

I think TNT At the point might be related to his injury. He can't take faceoffs, and I think they are moving him off the wing due to that also.

Not only is his one timer great on the side, but even if the other team covers it up, to do that they open up the ice for the other 4 guys out there on the PP. I too would rather see him back on the wing.

Back to Cozens....The other stat I never looked up until now...PP goals for per 60 on ice (not PP goals per 60, that is individual, the goals FOR is about when you are on the ice). Meaning, how many goals does your team score on the PP when you are on the ice, whether you score it , you have an assist, or are just on the ice creating havoc in front of the net.  Now the key thing with this stat is, since you are sharing the ice with the same teamates a lot of time the numbers should be close with other players on your team. But that is good for evaluation. Even a SLIGHT increase or decrease in your numbers will say that the few times you are out there with 'other guys' you are potentially helping, or hurting them more than other players on the team.

For his career heas at 7.55. Behind Tuch, Thompson, Skinner, and Mitts. If when they share the ice their numbers are the same, that means in games where Cozens is out (injury) or where the are on different units, those guys perform better with him NOT on the ice with him. (I am only looking at forwads here, BTW Tuch's numbers on the PP have droped SIGNIFICANTLY in the past 1.5 years, something to watch.)

Now, him, and some of those guys were different players if you go back 4-5 years ago, so how about recently? This year he is at 6.17. Thompson is 8.79, Zucker 9.12, Peterka 10.14, Quinn 7.63... only Tuch has fallen behind him this year.  My math may be a bit 'wonky'...but let say him and Thompson are on the PP together 50% of the time. Their numbers would be the same for that time on that ice. That means the other 50% of the time, the differnece between the 2 would double.  I don't know the exact time they share on the PP together, but whatver the numbers are, those guys perform better statistically with him not on the ice with him as they do when he is out there with him.

So yeah, I get I'm the president of the "Cozens needs to go" fanclub. But how can a guy score 1 goal every 29 games on the PP.....have his numbers be worse than most other forwards in terms of Total goals for per 60 ont he PP (meaning he brings down the other guys when he is on the ice, both this year and for his career?)  How can he still be getting PP minutes?

Oh, and the thing I posted about his games missed last year after he got hurt against philly. Small sample size, but in the 3 games before he got hurt with him on every PP, sabres didn't score a single PP goal. 2 games he missed they scored a PP goal in both games. 3 or 4 games after he got back with him on the PP, they team didn't score a single PP goal again.

Here is one other stat...Over the time he has been in the NHL, he is one of 103 forwards that have recorded more than 700 minutes of ice time on the Powerplay.  He is last of those 103 players in PP goals scored.  103 guys, he is 103rd in goals. In points, he is 101st out of 103, but the two guys behind him have less assists but a lot more goals.

Awesome work. BTW, I mean absolutely no disrespect when I assign you arbitrary titles related to Cozens, your attention to detail on why he is such a likeable person but such huge disappointment as a member of the Sabres is legendary.

This latest bit is staggering, honestly. He is the poster child for "But he should be good, no?" He has fire and passion. He has skill. He just can't seem to stitch it together. For a 7th overall draft pick, "average" being taken at ~50%, the expectations for Cozens would be:

• Between 500 (57.4%) and 700 (31.1%) games played. He is at 323 games by age 23, safe to say he will hit the average. (556 games would be 50%?)
• Between 100 (62.3%) and 300 (41%) points scored. He is at 187 points by age 23, safe to say he will hit the average. (225 pts would be 50%?)

So, based solely on two statistics (all the Hockey News had, sorry) - the Sabres likely got an above average return for their 2019 7th overall pick. Kinda crazy.

[Broken Ankles]

22 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

I

Now, him, and some of those guys were different players if you go back 4-5 years ago, so how about recently? This year he is at 6.17. Thompson is 8.79, Zucker 9.12, Peterka 10.14, Quinn 7.63... only Tuch has fallen behind him this year.  My math may be a bit 'wonky'...but let say him and Thompson are on the PP together 50% of the time. Their numbers would be the same for that time on that ice. That means the other 50% of the time, the differnece between the 2 would double.  I don't know the exact time they share on the PP together, but whatver the numbers are, those guys perform better statistically with him not on the ice with him as they do when he is out there with him.

 

FWIW - from natural stat trick

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=pp&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479420&p2=8481528&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
 

In 24/25 - 66 minutes together, 40 Dylan no Tage, 50 Tage no Dylan and 50 neither.  As you expected, Tage w/out Dylan is much better in actual goals as well as xG%. 

 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

FWIW - from natural stat trick

https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20242025&thruseason=20242025&stype=2&sit=pp&score=all&rate=n&team=BUF&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2024-10-04&td=2025-04-17&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8479420&p2=8481528&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
 

In 24/25 - 66 minutes together, 40 Dylan no Tage, 50 Tage no Dylan and 50 neither.  As you expected, Tage w/out Dylan is much better in actual goals as well as xG%.   Over most of those time periods, the team scores 40-60% less goals when Cozens is on the ice with Tage compared to when Tage is out there without Cozens.  

The numbers seem to get more pronounced the closer you get to the present.  In 2021-22 season, Cozens actually had a slight advantage. But over the last 3-4 seasons, it appears Tage (and the rest of the PP) are much more likely to score on any given 2 man advantage when Cozens is off the PP compared to when he is on the ice.

 

Thanks.

At times I think the Advanced stats go too deep and we try to make too much of them, but the link you gave was interesting.  I looked at this year, along with the last 2 years combined, and then over their entire careers.  

I also used the comparison with Cozens and Dahlin (instead of Thompson), and did that over different points in their career. It also looks like the PP with Dahlin is actually more effective without Cozens than with him in terms of goal production per minute.

 

 

Edited January 15 by mjd1001