GDT: Washington Capitals @ Buffalo Sabres 01/06/25 7PM ET-- MSG, ESPN+ for out of market

[Doohicksie]

5 hours ago, Doohicksie said:

The Sabres are basically one 13-game losing streak out of the playoffs.

@Spoonman laughed at this statement, but say for the sake of argument that instead of 0-10-3 over that stretch, they went 5-5-3.  They'd have 10 more points and be tied with the Bruins for the final divisional spot and ahead of both WC teams.

Edited yesterday at 06:00 PM by Doohicksie

[LTS]

2 hours ago, Stoner said:

LTS, great term, woobirds.

They need to be escorted out. They disrupt the broadcast, too.

I guess you have to admire the lungpower.

It might always be this bad and the broadcast doesn't let it come through but last night I felt like they were trying to do the equivalent of the wave with it. Holy lord.

I'd rather have a palm tree blocking my view than listen to it.

Last night when they announced 1 minute remaining in the third period I accidentally said "Thank God" instead of "Thank you".  I apparently said it loud enough to get a few chuckles from the people around me. It wasn't even something I consciously thought about, but after watching yet another collapse.. ugh.

[Spoonman]

20 hours ago, Doohicksie said:

@Spoonman laughed at this statement, but say for the sake of argument that instead of 0-10-3 over that stretch, they went 5-5-3.  They'd have 10 more points and be tied with the Bruins for the final divisional spot and ahead of both WC teams.

@Doohicksie I laugh so as to not cry. That said, I am in 100% agreement.

> As of this post Sabres 7pts out of WC. Problem is Sabres don’t know how to win & do not maintain defensive structure leading to goals & losses. 
> GMKA & Pegs have created this problem over the years & cannot get veterans (who can play & lead)

> Additionally, the culture in Sabreland is awful. 
> What I cannot wrap my mind around is how the same owner has one team thriving & another languishing. How does he not see what is needed to be successful? 
> He keeps losing $ w Sabres while swimming in $ w NFL & Bills. How about spending money to rebuild the franchise and entire Front Office.

> Hire a REAL POHO & let him run the organization (I.e. a Beane from NHL). 

>Spend to the cap.

> If Pegs builds it fans will come. 

> Insert the definition of insanity here….

sigh.

@Pimlach What say you from the 716!? 

[JohnC]

11 minutes ago, Spoonman said:

@Doohicksie I laugh so as to not cry. That said, I am in 100% agreement.

> As of this post Sabres 7pts out of WC. Problem is Sabres don’t know how to win & do not maintain defensive structure leading to goals & losses. 
> GMKA & Pegs have created this problem over the years & cannot get veterans (who can play & lead)

> Additionally, the culture in Sabreland is awful. 
> What I cannot wrap my mind around is how the same owner has one team thriving & another languishing. How does he not see what is needed to be successful? 
> He keeps losing $ w Sabres while swimming in $ w NFL & Bills. How about spending money to rebuild the franchise and entire Front Office.

> Hire a REAL POHO & let him run the organization (I.e. a Beane from NHL). 

>Spend to the cap.

> If Pegs builds it fans will come. 

> Insert the definition of insanity here….

sigh.

@Pimlach What say you from the 716!? 

The hard/ugly truth that many people find difficult to accept is that the structure of the hockey organization is built in the way that he wants it to be. It's not an accident that he selected a GM that no self-respecting franchise would have even considered, and it is not an accident that apparently hockey decisions go to him before being approved. That's what he wanted. It's his toy to play with. And that's the ugly reality why this franchise is mired in the muck of mediocrity for a generation. It's freaking stupid!

[Pimlach]

24 minutes ago, Spoonman said:

@Doohicksie I laugh so as to not cry. That said, I am in 100% agreement.

> As of this post Sabres 7pts out of WC. Problem is Sabres don’t know how to win & do not maintain defensive structure leading to goals & losses. 
> GMKA & Pegs have created this problem over the years & cannot get veterans (who can play & lead)

> Additionally, the culture in Sabreland is awful. 
> What I cannot wrap my mind around is how the same owner has one team thriving & another languishing. How does he not see what is needed to be successful? 
> He keeps losing $ w Sabres while swimming in $ w NFL & Bills. How about spending money to rebuild the franchise and entire Front Office.

> Hire a REAL POHO & let him run the organization (I.e. a Beane from NHL). 

>Spend to the cap.

> If Pegs builds it fans will come. 

> Insert the definition of insanity here….

sigh.

@Pimlach What say you from the 716!? 

There is a lot to dissect here, most of it covered in many other threads Spooner.  

Playoffs - they sit 7 points behind Columbus for a playoff spot - that doesn't sound so bad until you see there are 7 teams between them and Columbus.  Any of those teams can get hot, or all 9 of these teams (includes CBJ and Buff) can continue to beat each other up and things will kind of stay the same.   

So while the 7 points might not sound like it is not much, it really is.  To reach the 95 point mark they needed to play greater that .700 hockey. Can they win 28 to 30 games out of their remaining 41?  I don't see it with the roster they have. 

They can cobble together one scoring line and one defensive line but not much else.  Defensively they are very poor defending the area around their net.  They are sloppy on breakouts, they give up the puck way too much, and they lose puck battles constantly.   The PK has fallen way below average without Greenway.  The PP is below average.  They have one reliable goalie and he is getting bombed every 3-4 starts.  Physically they are not small, but they lack players that will play a physical game, they only have a few that will.  Mentally they are fragile. They expect to lose.  The second Colorado melt down showed us who they are.  

Playoffs with this team as constructed today is just not a realistic thought.  If they can go out and win the 13 games in row that they lost in December then we can have a new conversation.   Even then, they have to win 2 of every 3 games after that.  

Culture - we certainly have more that enough evidence to say the organization accepts losing.   Starting at the top, winning is not the near term goal, and I don't know what is.  Adams has hidden behind the notion that he is building a "sustainable winner" and that will take longer.  Our current young core have grown up with the mindset of "someday we will be good".   The first wave of Sabres rebuild players are all gone, and are in their prime and thriving on other teams.  Unless Pegula makes the right changes, and makes winning now as the priority, it is more likely that this becomes a pattern and we will lose our  current core too.  

Pegula - he listened to the NFL guidance and he got lucky with McDermott on his second time around (first time he listened to Russ Brandon and hired Rex Ryan).  McDermott brought in Beane.  How often does an NHL coach bring in his GM?  Pegula got lucky, but at least he could spot something good in McDermott.   Credit him for finding McDermott.  McDermott fixed the Bills culture, and so did Beane.   They attract good players who want to win.  Pegula does not influence football operations.  That should be his model but for the Sabres it is not.  

Winning has to be the goal.   Is there even a simple hand written sign in the Sabres locker room that represents a commitment to play their best and accept nothing less.  McDermott put that sign up on day 1  -  "Playoff Caliber".   That one and of course "trust the process".   Sounds corny doesn't it?   The vets that McBeane kept were the ones who bought in and fit the program,  and they were not necessarily the better players.   More importantly the vet players that they bring in and the rookies they draft are ones that fit the culture.  

It has to start at the top.  Adams listens to his boss and does what the boss wants. That is not working and will probably never work.  

If I were the owner I would make changes in the FO.    Find a new POHO, give him room, let him decide what the organization should look like and what to do with the current FO and coaches.  Get rid of the financial constraints.  

[JohnC]

5 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

There is a lot to dissect here, most of it covered in many other threads Spooner.  

Playoffs - they sit 7 points behind Columbus for a playoff spot - that doesn't sound so bad until you see there are 7 teams between them and Columbus.  Any of those teams can get hot, or all 9 of these teams (includes CBJ and Buff) can continue to beat each other up and things will kind of stay the same.   

So while the 7 points might not sound like it is not much, it really is.  To reach the 95 point mark they needed to play greater that .700 hockey. Can they win 28 to 30 games out of their remaining 41?  I don't see it with the roster they have. 

They can cobble together one scoring line and one defensive line but not much else.  Defensively they are very poor defending the area around their net.  They are sloppy on breakouts, they give up the puck way too much, and they lose puck battles constantly.   The PK has fallen way below average without Greenway.  The PP is below average.  They have one reliable goalie and he is getting bombed every 3-4 starts.  Physically they are not small, but they lack players that will play a physical game, they only have a few that will.  Mentally they are fragile. They expect to lose.  The second Colorado melt down showed us who they are.  

Playoffs with this team as constructed today is just not a realistic thought.  If they can go out and win the 13 games in row that they lost in December then we can have a new conversation.   Even then, they have to win 2 of every 3 games after that.  

Culture - we certainly have more that enough evidence to say the organization accepts losing.   Starting at the top, winning is not the near term goal, and I don't know what is.  Adams has hidden behind the notion that he is building a "sustainable winner" and that will take longer.  Our current young core have grown up with the mindset of "someday we will be good".   The first wave of Sabres rebuild players are all gone, and are in their prime and thriving on other teams.  Unless Pegula makes the right changes, and makes winning now as the priority, it is more likely that this becomes a pattern and we will lose our  current core too.  

Pegula - he listened to the NFL guidance and he got lucky with McDermott on his second time around (first time he listened to Russ Brandon and hired Rex Ryan).  McDermott brought in Beane.  How often does an NHL coach bring in his GM?  Pegula got lucky, but at least he could spot something good in McDermott.   Credit him for finding McDermott.  McDermott fixed the Bills culture, and so did Beane.   They attract good players who want to win.  Pegula does not influence football operations.  That should be his model but for the Sabres it is not.  

Winning has to be the goal.   Is there even a simple hand written sign in the Sabres locker room that represents a commitment to play their best and accept nothing less.  McDermott put that sign up on day 1  -  "Playoff Caliber".   That one and of course "trust the process".   Sounds corny doesn't it?   The vets that McBeane kept were the ones who bought in and fit the program,  and they were not necessarily the better players.   More importantly the vet players that they bring in and the rookies they draft are ones that fit the culture.  

It has to start at the top.  Adams listens to his boss and does what the boss wants. That is not working and will probably never work.  

If I were the owner I would make changes in the FO.    Find a new POHO, give him room, let him decide what the organization should look like and what to do with the current FO and coaches.  Get rid of the financial constraints.  

Excellent analysis. Let me add another example where a meddling owner created perpetual chaos that couldn't be stopped until there was a change at the top. The example is the Washington Commanders. The former owner, Danny Snyder, was essentially forced out by the league who got tired of his antics and behavior. A new owner came in, and the first thing he did is create an outside consulting staff to not only search for the best people to run the football operation but also restructure the organization. They ended up getting an upcoming GM from the 49ers and hired a quality coaching staff. Ther staffing searches were not perfunctory or fraudulent. It was a serious process. (Compare that to the Sabres inauthentic coaching search?)

After the staff was in place, they starting to cull the roster and bring in veteran players who although were past their prime were the right kind of high character people who would show the young players the right way to prepare. Now look where the Commanders are compared to the previous year. Prior to the season, no one would have predicted that the change would be so dramatically different from the previous year. 

Terry Pegula is the owner. I'm not suggesting that he should be forced out. But what I am saying is that if the right structure and staff is in place, there can be a relatively quick turnaround for this generationally failed franchise.  

[mjd1001]

27 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

There is a lot to dissect here, most of it covered in many other threads Spooner.  

Playoffs - they sit 7 points behind Columbus for a playoff spot - that doesn't sound so bad until you see there are 7 teams between them and Columbus.  Any of those teams can get hot, or all 9 of these teams (includes CBJ and Buff) can continue to beat each other up and things will kind of stay the same.   

I agree with you.  7 points out doesn't look bad on the surface, but you have to remember that the team(s) 7 points up is going to win games along the way.  And its not one team, it is several, and those teams play each other so all the teams above you are going to make up points. Add to that the fact that there are going to be 'loser points' awarded along the way, and yeah, 7 points is a lot, espeically when the sabres have less games in hand to make up those points.

I have started to think of it differently and I posted it a few times in the past month.  Right now, 8th in the confrence is .512 point percentage (which is historically VERY low and if history is any guide, by the end of the year that number will be higher).  

To get to .523, they have to win 9 games in a row. That just gets you to that level.  Boston, Montreal, C-bus, Pittsburgh, and Detroit are all a LOT closer to that level, and you would need NONE of them to pass that level at the same time.  And in addition to them, Detroit, Philly, NYR and NYI are all ahead of you and statistically have a better chance of getting there than you do. 

So realistically when looking at the standings, an immediate 9 game winning streak only gets you to where 8th is now..but it would likely take a 10-12 game winning streak to GET you into that 8th spot (and then you'd have to hold onto it.)

The 'points back' hill to climb isn't as linear as it appears.  Being 8 points out of a playoff spot is MORE than twice as hard to make up as being 4 points out, for example.

As far as the 13 game losing streak, lets say the team ends on on in immediate 13 game win streak. That would put them at .556 point percentage (91 point pace). Historically, that usually still misses the playoffs.

Edited 2 hours ago by mjd1001

[Sidc3000]

49 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

There is a lot to dissect here, most of it covered in many other threads Spooner.  

Playoffs - they sit 7 points behind Columbus for a playoff spot - that doesn't sound so bad until you see there are 7 teams between them and Columbus.  Any of those teams can get hot, or all 9 of these teams (includes CBJ and Buff) can continue to beat each other up and things will kind of stay the same.   

So while the 7 points might not sound like it is not much, it really is.  To reach the 95 point mark they needed to play greater that .700 hockey. Can they win 28 to 30 games out of their remaining 41?  I don't see it with the roster they have. 

They can cobble together one scoring line and one defensive line but not much else.  Defensively they are very poor defending the area around their net.  They are sloppy on breakouts, they give up the puck way too much, and they lose puck battles constantly.   The PK has fallen way below average without Greenway.  The PP is below average.  They have one reliable goalie and he is getting bombed every 3-4 starts.  Physically they are not small, but they lack players that will play a physical game, they only have a few that will.  Mentally they are fragile. They expect to lose.  The second Colorado melt down showed us who they are.  

Playoffs with this team as constructed today is just not a realistic thought.  If they can go out and win the 13 games in row that they lost in December then we can have a new conversation.   Even then, they have to win 2 of every 3 games after that.  

Culture - we certainly have more that enough evidence to say the organization accepts losing.   Starting at the top, winning is not the near term goal, and I don't know what is.  Adams has hidden behind the notion that he is building a "sustainable winner" and that will take longer.  Our current young core have grown up with the mindset of "someday we will be good".   The first wave of Sabres rebuild players are all gone, and are in their prime and thriving on other teams.  Unless Pegula makes the right changes, and makes winning now as the priority, it is more likely that this becomes a pattern and we will lose our  current core too.  

Pegula - he listened to the NFL guidance and he got lucky with McDermott on his second time around (first time he listened to Russ Brandon and hired Rex Ryan).  McDermott brought in Beane.  How often does an NHL coach bring in his GM?  Pegula got lucky, but at least he could spot something good in McDermott.   Credit him for finding McDermott.  McDermott fixed the Bills culture, and so did Beane.   They attract good players who want to win.  Pegula does not influence football operations.  That should be his model but for the Sabres it is not.  

Winning has to be the goal.   Is there even a simple hand written sign in the Sabres locker room that represents a commitment to play their best and accept nothing less.  McDermott put that sign up on day 1  -  "Playoff Caliber".   That one and of course "trust the process".   Sounds corny doesn't it?   The vets that McBeane kept were the ones who bought in and fit the program,  and they were not necessarily the better players.   More importantly the vet players that they bring in and the rookies they draft are ones that fit the culture.  

It has to start at the top.  Adams listens to his boss and does what the boss wants. That is not working and will probably never work.  

If I were the owner I would make changes in the FO.    Find a new POHO, give him room, let him decide what the organization should look like and what to do with the current FO and coaches.  Get rid of the financial constraints.  

 

29 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Excellent analysis. Let me add another example where a meddling owner created perpetual chaos that couldn't be stopped until there was a change at the top. The example is the Washington Commanders. The former owner, Danny Snyder, was essentially forced out by the league who got tired of his antics and behavior. A new owner came in, and the first thing he did is create an outside consulting staff to not only search for the best people to run the football operation but also restructure the organization. They ended up getting an upcoming GM from the 49ers and hired a quality coaching staff. Ther staffing searches were not perfunctory or fraudulent. It was a serious process. (Compare that to the Sabres inauthentic coaching search?)

After the staff was in place, they starting to cull the roster and bring in veteran players who although were past their prime were the right kind of high character people who would show the young players the right way to prepare. Now look where the Commanders are compared to the previous year. Prior to the season, no one would have predicted that the change would be so dramatically different from the previous year. 

Terry Pegula is the owner. I'm not suggesting that he should be forced out. But what I am saying is that if the right structure and staff is in place, there can be a relatively quick turnaround for this generationally failed franchise.  

These posts should be in their own thread. This is great stuff especially the Commanders comparison. I have lived in the DC area for 25 years and watched it all. It’s just mind boggling the turn around when you make the right s and have buy in from the top down. 
 

I have a feeling we’re going to start hearing rumors that the young is not happy. Some may already be regretting their decisions to sign long term and may start looking for a way out. 
 

fans also need to start to revolt. Except for games like Toronto, Montreal, etc the arena should be empty. Fans need to stop buying tickets, merch, etc. unfortunately there isn’t a big enough hardcore fan, like the Bills, base to do that. Many fans are casual Sabres fans and probably don’t see the absolute distinction.  

[Pimlach]

56 minutes ago, Sidc3000 said:

 

These posts should be in their own thread. This is great stuff especially the Commanders comparison. I have lived in the DC area for 25 years and watched it all. It’s just mind boggling the turn around when you make the right s and have buy in from the top down. 
 

I have a feeling we’re going to start hearing rumors that the young is not happy. Some may already be regretting their decisions to sign long term and may start looking for a way out. 
 

fans also need to start to revolt. Except for games like Toronto, Montreal, etc the arena should be empty. Fans need to stop buying tickets, merch, etc. unfortunately there isn’t a big enough hardcore fan, like the Bills, base to do that. Many fans are casual Sabres fans and probably don’t see the absolute distinction.  

This already happened.   Not a revolt but huge fan apathy.  Booing is their emotional release.   

Most of the Sabres fans that I know do not go to games anymore and only watch them on TV as a curiosity.   Most of them did not like the Lindy hiring.  Not because of Lindy, but because the coach search was a farce.  

Not only are the fans pissed but so are the alumni (former players).   

The number of hardcore fans has dwindled way down.  I will be in town in Feb and again March and have no plans to attend in person right now.  Normally I would have tickets and plans in advance.   If someone gives me a ticket I might go.  

 

[Doohicksie]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Excellent analysis. Let me add another example where a meddling owner created perpetual chaos that couldn't be stopped until there was a change at the top. The example is the Washington Commanders. The former owner, Danny Snyder, was essentially forced out by the league who got tired of his antics and behavior. A new owner came in, and the first thing he did is create an outside consulting staff to not only search for the best people to run the football operation but also restructure the organization. They ended up getting an upcoming GM from the 49ers and hired a quality coaching staff. Ther staffing searches were not perfunctory or fraudulent. It was a serious process. (Compare that to the Sabres inauthentic coaching search?)

After the staff was in place, they starting to cull the roster and bring in veteran players who although were past their prime were the right kind of high character people who would show the young players the right way to prepare. Now look where the Commanders are compared to the previous year. Prior to the season, no one would have predicted that the change would be so dramatically different from the previous year. 

Terry Pegula is the owner. I'm not suggesting that he should be forced out. But what I am saying is that if the right structure and staff is in place, there can be a relatively quick turnaround for this generationally failed franchise.  

To carry the football analogy further.... Terry Pegula : Buffalo Sabres :: Jerry Jones : Dallas Cowboys.  Neither team will get anywhere under current ownership (although I think the Sabres have at least a chance because Terry isn't actually the GM).

[ExWNYer]

3 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

To carry the football analogy further.... Terry Pegula : Buffalo Sabres :: Jerry Jones : Dallas Cowboys.  Neither team will get anywhere under current ownership (although I think the Sabres have at least a chance because Terry isn't actually the GM).

Pegula may not be the GM in title but it seems as if he does have his hand up the backside of the current GM...

[Doohicksie]

7 minutes ago, ExWNYer said:

Pegula may not be the GM in title but it seems as if he does have his hand up the backside of the current GM...

True, but at least he's got a nominal "hockey guy" in the room.  Jones thinks he's an actual "football guy."

And I'm not sure how much of Kevyn's tenure is Pegula's meddling versus Kevyn's "plan" and sticking to it.