Reviewing Adams' Off-season acquisitions at the half way mark

[mjd1001]

15 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which is a pretty sad commentary on Cozens. 

Are you willing to pay $6 mill a year for McLeod given his 24% shooting %?

I would. $6m per year going forward with the cap going up will be like what....$4.5-$5m when Cozens signed his deal? As a percentage of the cap that is.

 

[GoPuckYourself]

49 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

When healthy, Tage is a bit of a unicorn.  He's one of the few players in the NHL that other teams really have to game plan around.  He can play center, and recently we saw some games where he is productive at wing.   So what do I think all this means?  You don't really need a traditional "first line center" if Tage is on the first line, and healthy. He can play Center, or you can put someone else and center and put him at Wing, and the line will succeed.

Now, that doesn't mean take a borderline AHL player and throw him there and things will be fine. You want to have a good player there. But I think he allows you, again when healthy, to play him at center or play him at wing with a 'good' other player at Center and the line will be fine.

This team is in more need of a good, quality, productive, 2-way guys at Center #2 and #3.  I like the 2/3 season of McLeod so far, lets see if they extend him and if he can be what he has been long term.

I'm not so sure Tage is being viewed as a top line center any longer, seriously what would be the injury that prevents him from taking faceoffs but can blast almost 100 mph shots on the power play? He has the scoring down i just don't think he does the rest very well imo. He's not good defensively, not good at winning faceoffs so I think they're seeing what they have in Kulich whether he's a 1st liner, 2nd liner etc. I could be wrong though.

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Why are you reluctant to categorize Tage as a 1C? It seems to me that a JJP/Tage/Tuch with other variations at wing is a solid one line. The bigger issue is how is the second line going to be constructed. I would put Cozens at wing on the second line and go from there. I would prefer acquiring a quality 2C from the market but not sure that is a reasonable expectation. 

As far as Tage this season...

#1 in the entire league in even strength goals per 60.  The best, and its not really that close (Ovechkin is 2nd, 0.26 goals per 60 behind him)  He has been the single more dangerous scorer in the NHL even strength this season.

#6 in terms of goals per game overall, all strengths. (if he had some better Power Play linemates, this might be higher)

He is an elite goal scorer. He just needs to stay as healthy as possible and get SOME support from the lines #2 and #3.

Its crazy to think that 2-3 weeks ago there were reports that he was on the list of players the Sabres are willing to trade.

Edited 4 hours ago by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

14 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I'm not so sure Tage is being viewed as a top line center any longer, seriously what would be the injury that prevents him from taking faceoffs but can blast almost 100 mph shots on the power play? He has the scoring down i just don't think he does the rest very well imo. He's not good defensively, not good at winning faceoffs so I think they're seeing what they have in Kulich whether he's a 1st liner, 2nd liner etc. I could be wrong though.

I'd disagree that he is not good defensively.  

Not "Good"?  Well, he's not a shut down guy that will take the other teams top guy off the board, but he's not bad, not bad at all.

He covers a lot of ground. He is not out of position all that much. Actually, I'd say his positioning is pretty darn good considering as the most dangerous offensive player on this team, I WANT him to be the one guy going in so deep into the opponents zone that he is likely to get back late.

I don't go to many games, but when I do I like to follow the top players without the puck, and I watch almost every single replay angle I can of goals the Sabres allow.  I cannot understand why people say he's bad defensively.  Not great? Sure, but I actually think he is above average simply because of the size/reach he has and how he can take away passing lanes..and he just does not go out of position that much leaving line-mates and D-men out to dry.  I don't see it.

I will go as far as saying, in the handful of games I have been to, his neutral zone play is very, very good without the puck.  He doesn't have to look like an elite Defensive forward in his own zone because when he is on the the ice, he distrupts passing lanes, tips passes, causes a lot of stuff to happen in the neutral zone so the puck doesn't get into the defensive zone as much.   That is probably why is analytics are pretty decent defensively.

Edited 4 hours ago by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I would. $6m per year going forward with the cap going up will be like what....$4.5-$5m when Cozens signed his deal? As a percentage of the cap that is.

 

So you would give McLeod $6 mill a season for a career 12% shooter who is in the midst of a career year with a 24% shooting %.?

I'm sorry this is why the Sabres make bad decisions.  Cozens shooting % for his career are 6.5%, 8.1%, 9% and 8.7% except his career contract year in which he shot 14.7%.  The Sabres gave him a contract based on the career year and he immediately reverted to his previous shooting level%

McLeod's career shooting % are 11, 14.1, 11.3 and this year 24.1 .  This year is an anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated.

Edited 4 hours ago by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

10 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

As far as Tage this season...

#1 in the entire league in even strength goals per 60.  The best, and its not really that close (Ovechkin is 2nd, 0.26 goals per 60 behind him)  He has been the single more dangerous scorer in the NHL even strength this season.

#6 in terms of goals per game overall, all strengths. (if he had some better Power Play linemates, this might be higher)

He is an elite goal scorer. He just needs to stay as healthy as possible and get SOME support from the lines #2 and #3.

Its crazy to think that 2-3 weeks ago there were reports that he was on the list of players the Sabres are willing to trade.

People 100% fabricate those lists based on their preconceived notions.  They don’t know anything you or I don’t. 

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you would give McLeod $6 mill a season for a career 12% shooter who is in the midst of a career year with a 24% shooting %.?

I'm sorry this is why the Sabres make bad decisions.  Cozens shooting % for his career are 6.5%, 8.1%, 9% and 8.7% except his career contract year in which he shot 14.7%.  The Sabres gave him a contract based on the career year and he immediately reverted to his previous shooting level%

McLeod's career shooting % are 11, 14.1, 11.3 and this year 24.1 .  This year is an anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated.

The Sabres don’t make bad decisions based on mouse potatoes opinions.  

[mjd1001]

21 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you would give McLeod $6 mill a season for a career 12% shooter who is in the midst of a career year with a 24% shooting %.?

I'm sorry this is why the Sabres make bad decisions.  Cozens shooting % for his career are 6.5%, 8.1%, 9% and 8.7% except his career contract year in which he shot 14.7%.  The Sabres gave him a contract based on the career year and he immediately reverted to his previous shooting level%

McLeod's career shooting % are 11, 14.1, 11.3 and this year 24.1 .  This year is an anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated.

Again, I'm not paying him based on his shooting percentage being that high.

I'm paying him not to be a scorer. I'm paying him to be competent both ways...to give me a reliable 15 goals, with the potential for a handful for more., to be a pretty good penalty killer, and to be reliable as a 3rd line center with the potential to fill in 2nd line minutes in a crunch.  When you have a Center that honestly, hardly makes any mistakes that hurt you and is only in their mid 20's....you bet that is the guy I'm going to pay.  

With the cap going up, $6m per year is going to be around 5.5-5.8% of the cap for most of that deal.  When Cozens signed his deal was over 8% of the cap.  Yep, $6m per year for what he has been giving you, even with less goals, for about 5.5-6% of the cap...I sure will do that.

The sabers are as bad as they are for the past few years because they gave a long-term contract that was over 8% of the cap to a player that has actually hurt them. They also haven't spent cap room to bring in other quality players to compliment this team. Giving a contract to him for about 5.5-6% of the cap is nowhere near the mistake that those other two items are.

Edited 3 hours ago by mjd1001

[GoPuckYourself]

5 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd disagree that he is not good defensively.  

Not "Good"?  Well, he's not a shut down guy that will take the other teams top guy off the board, but he's not bad, not bad at all.

He covers a lot of ground. He is not out of position all that much. Actually, I'd say his positioning is pretty darn good considering as the most dangerous offensive player on this team, I WANT him to be the one guy going in so deep into the opponents zone that he is likely to get back late.

I don't go to many games, but when I do I like to follow the top players without the puck, and I watch almost every single replay angle I can of goals the Sabres allow.  I cannot understand why people say he's bad defensively.  Not great? Sure, but I actually think he is above average simply because of the size/reach he has and how he can take away passing lanes..and he just does not go out of position that much leaving line-mates and D-men out to dry.  I don't see it.

He's not a 2 way center is what I meant. Also he's not above average, if he were i'd think he'd be our #1 center right now again imo.

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, GoPuckYourself said:

He's not a 2 way center is what I meant. Also he's not above average, if he were i'd think he'd be our #1 center right now again imo.

My whole point is when he is on the ice, he doesn't need to be the #1 center to drive the #1 line.  He can be center, he can be wing with a different center....it doesn't matter where he line up, He is the guy that drives the line.  The first line is 'set' with a healthy Tage on it. This team needs to focus on lines #2 and #3 centers.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Why are you reluctant to categorize Tage as a 1C? It seems to me that a JJP/Tage/Tuch with other variations at wing is a solid one line. The bigger issue is how is the second line going to be constructed. I would put Cozens at wing on the second line and go from there. I would prefer acquiring a quality 2C from the market but not sure that is a reasonable expectation. 

He is a first line player.

He is certainly a 1C on the last place Sabres.   Is he a 1C on a playoff team?  Maybe he is on a few of them.

Is he a 1C on a Cup Contender?  No.  On a cup contender his is scoring 50 goals playing wing with a 1C. 

I think is a 40 goal scorer (with potential for 50) whether he plays center or wing.  He is a force in a unique way.  

Granato believed that him playing center gave him more room, thus more goal scoring opportunities.  I cannot deny that he broke out as a player at center, but he was going to break out anyway.  

Ruff doesn’t seem to like him as a center because his two way game does not translate to a center that gets 20 minutes a game, much of it against top lines.   I think he can play either position but I believe Ruff is correct.  Tage is scoring with Kulich.  When he is healthy he will score goals.  

[EM88]

Ryan McLeod is one of the best defensive centers in the league.

In his 2 previous years with Edmonton, he often got checking assignments and when he was on the ice the team allowed an even strength goal once every 29 minutes.  When he wasn't on the ice it was a goal every 23.8 minutes. That is a massive difference.

This year with Buffalo when he is on the ice even strength the team allows a goal ever 24.1 minutes. When he is not out there it is  a goal about every 22 minutes. They also allow less high danger chances against and less overall shots against when he is on the ice.

With Buffalo he is also doing that without the benefit of playing with Rasmus Dahlin, who makes just about everyone's numbers look better. The majority of the ice time McLeod gets is with the bottom 4 D-men.

For the last 3 years of his career, with 2 different teams and coaches, and several different linemates, 2 different systems, more often than not he is out there in a defensive role against other teams scoring lines, he has proven his team allows less goals and scoring chances when he is out there.  When we watch games he appears to be rarely out of position. He appears by most mearues to honestly be an excellent defensive center.

Even if he does revert to his career shooting percentage, which is about 14%, and he only gives you about 100 shots in a full season, that means he reverts to a mid-teens goal scorer.

Give me the opportunity to sign a 25 year old center who is very good, if not great defensively, who will score me in the teens in goals, and is one of the fastest skaters in the league and I'll take it.  If the asking price is $6 million dollars per year, where do I sign up?

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Which is a pretty sad commentary on Cozens. 

Are you willing to pay $6 mill a year for McLeod given his 24% shooting %?

 

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

AFP is projecting 3x a little more than $3 million.  I think it will be higher than that.  I don't think anyone is giving McLeod $6 million a year.

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

If he puts up 50 pts this season, no way he settles on a 3 mill per season deal.  AFP estimates were also based on his stats while he was in the midst of his 6 pts in 22 game slump. 

I don't think he'll cost 6 million. But I would give him 5milx3yrs or 4.75x4

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you would give McLeod $6 mill a season for a career 12% shooter who is in the midst of a career year with a 24% shooting %.?

I'm sorry this is why the Sabres make bad decisions.  Cozens shooting % for his career are 6.5%, 8.1%, 9% and 8.7% except his career contract year in which he shot 14.7%.  The Sabres gave him a contract based on the career year and he immediately reverted to his previous shooting level%

McLeod's career shooting % are 11, 14.1, 11.3 and this year 24.1 .  This year is an anomaly that is unlikely to be repeated.

The issue isn't giving Cozens 7 mill for a career year, it's giving him 7 mill over 7 years. 

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

The issue isn't giving Cozens 7 mill for a career year, it's giving him 7 mill over 7 years. 

The GM was premature in giving extended contracts instead of bridge deals to Cozens and Samuelsson. Yet, with Reinhart the GM refused to give him an extended contract when he had the opportunity to do so. So the player acting in his best interest pursued the free agent avenue and forced the team to trade him when he wouldn't sign a contract with the tea so that he could be a free agent. So many organizational miscalculations and so many setbacks. Just stupid decision making.