Reviewing Adams' Off-season acquisitions at the half way mark

[dudacek]

Lot of bitching about Adams not acquiring the right players to surround his kids with.

i don’t think that’s exactly right. Byram has been a good sidekick for Dahlin. McLeod has been a good 3C. Zucker has been everything they were hoping for in the middle six. He overpaid for Malenstyn, but the guy is what you want in a 4th line winger.

The issue is the kids themselves: this management team expected UPL, Samuelson, Power, Cozens, Quinn and Peterka to be rounding out a playoff core by now.

None have been better than middling contributors and all save maybe Peterka have been below average at best for where they should be relative to their roles.

[GASabresIUFAN]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Lot of bitching about Adams not acquiring the right players to surround his kids with.

i don’t think that’s exactly right. Byram has been a good sidekick for Dahlin. McLeod has been a good 3C. Zucker has been everything they were hoping for in the middle six. He overpaid for Malenstyn, but the guy is what you want in a 4th line winger.

The issue is the kids themselves: this management team expected UPL, Samuelson, Power, Cozens, Quinn and Peterka to be rounding out a playoff core by now.

None have been better than middling contributors and all save maybe Peterka have been below average at best for where they should be relative to their roles.

Except Zucker none of the players you mentioned are seasoned vets none have actually upgraded the roster.  Since these players were added and guys like Mitts, Skinner, VO, and others were subtracted the team is worse.  

The only two legit non-goalie vets Adams has added that could be argued are upgrades are Zucker and Greenway and both are 3rd line players (or would be on a real team).  
 

There is no question McLeod has been good but he isn’t a 50+ point player like Mitts or any sort of playmaker like Mitts.  He is a downgrade.  

Byram has improved this season but the analytics say he is being carried by Dahlin.  At least he’s better than Power.  Still is he worth another huge long-term Adams contract?  I don’t think so as his in zone D is still very suspect.  

Malenstyn, who maybe the only 4th line acquisition who has somewhat done what was expected, is playing over 4 minutes a game less than he did with Wash last season and they don’t miss him at all.  Their front office must be laughing at Adams for giving them a 2nd for him.  

Maybe all 3 of these players are part of the Sabres future, but remember all 3 were dumped by teams with Cup aspirations.  

[Flashsabre]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Except Zucker none of the players you mentioned are seasoned vets none have actually upgraded the roster.  Since these players were added and guys like Mitts, Skinner, VO, and others were subtracted the team is worse.  

The only two legit non-goalie vets Adams has added that could be argued are upgrades are Zucker and Greenway and both are 3rd line players (or would be on a real team).  
 

There is no question McLeod has been good but he isn’t a 50+ point player like Mitts or any sort of playmaker like Mitts.  He is a downgrade.  

Byram has improved this season but the analytics say he is being carried by Dahlin.  At least he’s better than Power.  Still is he worth another huge long-term Adams contract?  I don’t think so as his in zone D is still very suspect.  

Malenstyn, who maybe the only 4th line acquisition who has somewhat done what was expected, is playing over 4 minutes a game less than he did with Wash last season and they don’t miss him at all.  Their front office must be laughing at Adams for giving them a 2nd for him.  

Maybe all 3 of these players are part of the Sabres future, but remember all 3 were dumped by teams with Cup aspirations.  

With the way Mitts has played I think I would take McLeod.

[GASabresIUFAN]

32 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

With the way Mitts has played I think I would take McLeod.

Different team, different system. He thrived here and our team was better with him.   I actually don’t have an issue with the McLeod trade as I did earlier.  Since being demoted to the 4th line McLeod has really picked up his game at both ends of the ice.  I still wouldn’t commit to him long term but how much better would we be with both Mitts and McLeod in the top 9?

[mjd1001]

I still haven't changed my mind.....I don't have an issue with the moves Adams has made overall recently....my issue is they haven't made ENOUGH moves.

[Archie Lee]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Lot of bitching about Adams not acquiring the right players to surround his kids with.

i don’t think that’s exactly right. Byram has been a good sidekick for Dahlin. McLeod has been a good 3C. Zucker has been everything they were hoping for in the middle six. He overpaid for Malenstyn, but the guy is what you want in a 4th line winger.

The issue is the kids themselves: this management team expected UPL, Samuelson, Power, Cozens, Quinn and Peterka to be rounding out a playoff core by now.

None have been better than middling contributors and all save maybe Peterka have been below average at best for where they should be relative to their roles.

I see the two bolded sentences as basically the same thing.  To support the kids with veterans, he needed to make the difficult decision to trade 2-3 of the kids. The issue is not with the acquisitions he made (though Lafferty and Aube-Kubel are looking like very poor decisions), but rather that he stuck with too many kids in critical positions. Adams needed to have the courage to move 2-3 of these players for veterans. Had he done so, he would still have had a very young team with a better than average prospect pool to draw from in the coming years. 

Sadly, nothing has really changed.  Quinn is playing a bit better but on balance has still regressed.  Benson's game is basically the same as it was a year ago. Likewise, the other younger players you reference (aside from Peterka) have not advanced their games.  If they come back next season with all of these young players on the roster, they will not likely be projected to be a playoff team. If they stay with the kids, the safe bet is that the streak will stretch to year 15. 

[GrassValleyGreg]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is no question McLeod has been good but he isn’t a 50+ point player like Mitts or any sort of playmaker like Mitts.  He is a downgrade.  

Points do not reflect the value of a player. Anybody who watches/knows the sport would vehemently disagree with this assessment. 
 

[PromoTheRobot]

22 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is no question McLeod has been good but he isn’t a 50+ point player like Mitts or any sort of playmaker like Mitts.  He is a downgrade.  

Mitts is so good the Avs are already trying to get rid of him. 🤣

 

[PromoTheRobot]

Downgrade??

[dudacek]

27 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Downgrade??

If you look at the 64ish NHL centres getting middle six ice time (15:40 to 19:10 per game)

• McLeod ranks 40th in points, 9th in plus/minus
• Mittelstadt is 35th in points, 57th in plus/minus
• Cozens is 50th in points, 61st in plus/minus

McLeod has been one of the league's best 3rd-line centres. Cozens and Mittlestadt two of its worst 2nd-line centres

[DarthEbriate]

On 2/24/2025 at 9:02 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

There is no question McLeod has been good but he isn’t a 50+ point player like Mitts or any sort of playmaker like Mitts.  He is a downgrade.  

I have two ways to read this:

1) With power play time
It's really difficult to find 50+ point players in the NHL who don't get PP time. McLeod has 5.5 minutes of PP time this entire season.
(Cozens gets 5.5 minutes every 2 1/3 games, for comparison.)

2) Even strength points only
The past two seasons, Mitts was an elite even strength scorer. Last year, he finished with 48 ES points (and 42 the year before). That's excellent. Last season, his 48 ESP were good for 47th in the league and the guys on the list above him are a who's who of 1st liners, 4 Nations skaters, and some dual center pairs (McDavid/Draisaitl, Pettersson/JT Miller) who are often on the ice together. Mitts was great at it. Of note, there were no other Sabres in the top 50.

Recently, only TNT, Skinner (only twice in his career), and Tuch have exceeded 50 ESP and Cozens' lone breakout season came close (47).

This year, McLeod has 29 ESP in 52 games. He's missed a few games, but his 82-game pace is 45.73 points. That's excellent Mitts-level even strength production.

The only warning sign is that thus far this is an anomaly for McLeod. But prior to this season he was skating behind McDavid/Draisaitl and got replaced by established veteran Henrique. And if I'm his agent, I ask for Mitts-level contract and term (3x5.75), because that's what I call sell a GM on the open market to be a 2/3C who kills penalties and can step onto the top line temporarily, and is very solid at ES.

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

I have two ways to read this:

1) With power play time
It's really difficult to find 50+ point players in the NHL who don't get PP time. McLeod has 5.5 minutes of PP time this entire season.
(Cozens gets 5.5 minutes every 2 1/3 games, for comparison.)

2) Even strength points only
The past two seasons, Mitts was an elite even strength scorer. Last year, he finished with 48 ES points (and 42 the year before). That's excellent. Last season, his 48 ESP were good for 47th in the league and the guys on the list above him are a who's who of 1st liners, 4 Nations skaters, and some dual center pairs (McDavid/Draisaitl, Pettersson/JT Miller) who are often on the ice together. Mitts was great at it. Of note, there were no other Sabres in the top 50.

Recently, only TNT, Skinner (only twice in his career), and Tuch have exceeded 50 ESP and Cozens' lone breakout season came close (47).

This year, McLeod has 29 ESP in 52 games. He's missed a few games, but his 82-game pace is 45.73 points. That's excellent Mitts-level even strength production.

 

Hard to fathom given our lived experience, but the Sabres are a slightly above average ES team.

• They are 14th in Shot attempt % 
• They are 12th (at +10) in ES goal differential.
• They are 3rd in the NHL in goals for at 5on5. 
• Their goals against 5on5 isn't good (21st) but it is almost identical to Carolina and Vegas.

Individually they have a number of players that stack up well

• Dahlin is 4th and Byram 14th in ES points by defencemen.
• Tage is tied with Jack Hughes and Artemi Panarin, ahead of players like Nylander, Reinhart and Point.
• JJ Peterka's ES production is the similar to Austin Matthews
• Ryan McLeod is comparable to Anton Lundell, 
• Alex Tuch to Tim Stutzle and Sebastian Aho
• Jason Zucker's numbers echo Mark's Stone's, albeit in more games played

All five of those Sabre forwards are among the league's top 80 in ES points. All seven of those players save Peterka (-3) are + hockey players; the Sabres are winning the battle 5 on 5 when they are on the ice. Basically, we have three players in significant roles who are failing 5-on-5: Cozens Quinn and (defensively only) Power

So why do we suck?

• Our PK is -32 this year, good for 23rd in the NHL.
• Our PP is +22, good for 26th
• We've allowed 18 goals when the opponent pulls the goalie, 1 off the league worst.
• We've scored just 7 empty netters, good for 25th

Basically, we're fine overall playing 5-on-5, but we're a disaster in most areas when we're not.

Edited Tuesday at 07:35 PM by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So why do we suck?

• Our PK is -32 this year, good for 23rd in the NHL.
• Our PP is +22, good for 26th
• We've allowed 18 goals when the opponent pulls the goalie, 1 off the league worst.
• We've scored just 7 empty netters, good for 25th

Basically, we're fine playing 5-on-5, but we're a disaster in most areas when we're not.

You forgot that we are also 22nd in ES goals allowed (in other words we have allowed the 11 most goals 5 on 5.  

Our defense also falls apart as the game progresses.  We are 6th best in the NHL in least 1st period goals allowed at 41.  However he have allowed 70 goals in the 2nd period (3rd most allowed) and 71 in the 3rd period (4 most allowed). 

Our offense also slips significantly after the 1st.  We lead the NHL in goals in the 1st period with 67, but our 54 in the 2nd is 19th and our 54 in the 3rd is 21st.  Hard to win in the NHL if you can't hold a lead.

The problem with this team is defense and special teams.  

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:47 PM by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You forgot that we are also 22nd in ES goals allowed (in other words we have allowed the 11 most goals 5 on 5.  

Our defense also falls apart as the game progresses.  We are 6th best in the NHL in least 1st period goals allowed at 41.  However he have allowed 70 goals in the 2nd period (3rd most allowed) and 71 in the 3rd period (4 most allowed). 

Our offense also slips significantly after the 1st.  We lead the NHL in goals in the 1st period with 67, but our 54 in the 2nd is 19th and our 54 in the 3rd is 21st.  Hard to win in the NHL if you can't hold a lead.

The problem with this team is defense and special teams.  

 

The bold is right there in my first paragraph 😁

I was a little surprised to see the Sabres have only lost twice outright (with 2 OT losses) when leading after 2 this year. It felt like more.

I wonder how much responsibility Ruff owns for that. When he took over it was a stated goal to teach the team how to finish games.

He's .810 (17-2-2) when leading after 2, good for 24th in the league.

Granato was 53-1-5 over the 2 previous years, .898 and good for 4th overall.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

The bold is right there in my first paragraph 😁

I was a little surprised to see the Sabres have only lost twice outright (with 2 OT losses) when leading after 2 this year. It felt like more.

I wonder how much responsibility Ruff owns for that. When he took over it was a stated goal to teach the team how to finish games.

He's .810 (17-2-2) when leading after 2, good for 24th in the league.

Granato was 53-1-5 over the 2 previous years, .898 and good for 4th overall.

The Sabres lead the NHL in scoring first this season.  In fact they've scored first in 35 of 55 games.  Unfortunately, they only have 18 wins when scoring first and 12 regulations losses.   Their 12 regulation losses when scoring first is 2nd only to Chicago. Their 17 losses (Reg & OT) when scoring 1st is also second worst to Chicago's 19.   They also have 6 losses after leading after 1 period.  This is the second worst in that category as well (Chicago has 8).  

Defense wins championships and this team doesn't have any.

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

You forgot that we are also 22nd in ES goals allowed (in other words we have allowed the 11 most goals 5 on 5.  

Our defense also falls apart as the game progresses.  We are 6th best in the NHL in least 1st period goals allowed at 41.  However he have allowed 70 goals in the 2nd period (3rd most allowed) and 71 in the 3rd period (4 most allowed). 

Our offense also slips significantly after the 1st.  We lead the NHL in goals in the 1st period with 67, but our 54 in the 2nd is 19th and our 54 in the 3rd is 21st.  Hard to win in the NHL if you can't hold a lead.

The problem with this team is defense and special teams.  

 

And as brought up in another thread, almost all of those numbers are better, some considerably when calculated per on ice time with the 22 guys not named Dylan Cozens.

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

And as brought up in another thread, almost all of those numbers are better, some considerably when calculated per on ice time with the 22 guys not named Dylan Cozens.

Yep.

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The Sabres lead the NHL in scoring first this season.  In fact they've scored first in 35 of 55 games.  Unfortunately, they only have 18 wins when scoring first and 12 regulations losses.   Their 12 regulation losses when scoring first is 2nd only to Chicago. Their 17 losses (Reg & OT) when scoring 1st is also second worst to Chicago's 19.   They also have 6 losses after leading after 1 period.  This is the second worst in that category as well (Chicago has 8).  

Defense wins championships and this team doesn't have any.

Do you think that that stat might also be an indicator that teams do in fact get caught napping when they face the Sabres? 

[GrassValleyGreg]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The problem with this team is defense and special teams.  

 

Yet you criticize one of our best defensive players and PKers?

 

[Archie Lee]

13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Do you think that that stat might also be an indicator that teams do in fact get caught napping when they face the Sabres? 

This could be part of it. But by December I’m pretty sure every coach in the league was hammering home that the Sabres get off to good starts.

I’m pretty down on Adams and what he has done with the roster over the past two seasons. So much so that he gets no credit from me if he sticks to his guns, stays with his young guys and they do become a playoff team next year. It will be year 6. The playoffs should be the minimum expectation. It would be nothing to brag about. That said, I don’t think it is the case that everything positive about the team is just related to other teams taking us lightly.

[Pimlach]

On 2/24/2025 at 10:32 AM, dudacek said:

Lot of bitching about Adams not acquiring the right players to surround his kids with.

i don’t think that’s exactly right. Byram has been a good sidekick for Dahlin. McLeod has been a good 3C. Zucker has been everything they were hoping for in the middle six. He overpaid for Malenstyn, but the guy is what you want in a 4th line winger.

The issue is the kids themselves: this management team expected UPL, Samuelson, Power, Cozens, Quinn and Peterka to be rounding out a playoff core by now.

None have been better than middling contributors and all save maybe Peterka have been below average at best for where they should be relative to their roles.

Agree with most of this.  It was definitely the younger players that hurt the team, especially Cozens, Power, Samuelsson, and Quinn.  Peterka inconsistent.   Benson is not finding the scoresheet and now a 4th liner with Krebs.  

Byram had some up and down play.  All defenseman have better numbers when paired with Dahlin.  Most telling is Byram and Power did not step up when Dahlin was hurt.  That was a big part of the 13 game losing streak.  Our defense needs better defensive players.  

Zucker started the season on the 3rd line but has been a strong contributor anywhere he played.   How much will we overpay to keep him and how much is left in the tank?  

McLeod was in Ruff’s dog house for a while and played 4th line while minutes were given to Cozens and Krebs. I  don’t know why either.  

Abe Kubel and Lafferty did not contribute much but Malenstyn did  

Kulich was a big positive.  His centering the top line says a lot about our center strength, or lack there of. 
 
They cannot roll this back.  They need a top 6 center and a RHD that plays defense.  

Edited 13 hours ago by Pimlach

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 hours ago, GrassValleyGreg said:

Yet you criticize one of our best defensive players and PKers?

 

Yet we have one of the worst PK in the NHL.  Maybe the problem is bigger than one player?  Maybe that player isn’t as effective on the PK as alleged? 
 

 

[Archie Lee]

18 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Agree with most of this.  It was definitely the younger players that hurt the team, especially Cozens, Power, Samuelsson, and Quinn.  Peterka inconsistent.   Benson is not finding the scoresheet and now a 4th liner with Krebs.  

Byram had some up and down play.  All defenseman have better numbers when paired with Dahlin.  Most telling is Byram and Power did not step up when Dahlin was hurt.  That was a big part of the 13 game losing streak.  Our defense needs better defensive players.  

Zucker started the season on the 3rd line but has been a strong contributor anywhere he played.   How much will we overpay to keep him and how much is left in the tank?  

McLeod was in Ruff’s dog house for a while and played 4th line while minutes were given to Cozens and Krebs. I  don’t know why either.  

Abe Kubel and Lafferty did not contribute much but Malenstyn did  

Kulich was a big positive.  His centering the top line says a lot about our center strength, or lack there of. 
 
They cannot roll this back.  They need a top 6 center and a RHD that plays defense.  

I agree with this. Adams needed to have the courage to trade a couple more of his guys for players more ready to win now (acknowledging he did trade Savoie for McLeod).

On the topic of rolling it back, I think it is likely that they largely do. There is always some change between the deadline and the start of the next season, but I think Adams and Ruff will be back and I could easily see there being no movement of the young roster players. I think we may see a swap of Zucker for a player like Rust (Zucker leaves as a UFA and we trade Rosen+ for Rust). I think it is possible that the young core eventually reaches a point where their combination of skill, strength, maturity and experience allows them to be a playoff team, maybe as soon as next season.  It’s just playing with fire to not proactively make intentional change. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

14 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Do you think that that stat might also be an indicator that teams do in fact get caught napping when they face the Sabres? 

It could be that the Sabres come out hard and fast and their effort and attention to detail then fall off as the grind of the game continues?  It’s kind of like a sugar high to start the game and once the sugar gets out of their system they crash and go to sleep.  
or

It also could be that good teams don’t take them seriously and then once they get behind they start picking up their intensity, start physically man handling our weak players and grind the Sabres into submission.

or 

It could be that our team’s flaws get exposed over the 60 minutes, especially our poor defense and penalty kill.  The defense and PK get exploited time and again as the game progresses destroying the hope created by the quick start.

or 

It could be a mix of all these issues.  

[Pimlach]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It could be that the Sabres come out hard and fast and their effort and attention to detail then fall off as the grind of the game continues?  It’s kind of like a sugar high to start the game and once the sugar gets out of their system they crash and go to sleep.  
or

It also could be that good teams don’t take them seriously and then once they get behind they start picking up their intensity, start physically man handling our weak players and grind the Sabres into submission.

or 

It could be that our team’s flaws get exposed over the 60 minutes, especially our poor defense and penalty kill.  The defense and PK get exploited time and again as the game progresses destroying the hope created by the quick start.

or 

It could be a mix of all these issues.  

Or our coaches play a 3rd period “protect the lead” game that the players are not capable of playing.