1st Round Picks Since the Tank: Futile Drafting Got Us Here

[JoeSchmoe]

Here's who we've drafted in the 1st round along with who we have now for the picks.

I'm going by memory here so I can update when more astute posters correct me on this.

The long and short of this is we aren't even close to being able to field the core of a good team out of this list. 

Reinhart- Levi and 1st rounder (was it Kulich?)

Eichel- Krebs, Tuch, and 1st rounder (Östlund?)

Nylander - Joki

Mittelstadt - Byram

Dahlin - legit 1st round talent

Cozens - currently not 1st round talent

Johnson - currently not 1st round talent

Quinn - currently not 1st round talent

Power - possibly 1st round talent

Rosen - no 1st round potential

Savoie - McLeod 

Östlund - likely not 1st round potential 

Kulich - possible 1st round potential likely middle 6

Benson - possible 1st round potential likely 2nd line possible 1st line 

Helenius - possible 1st round potential.

[CallawaySabres]

This is all you really need to know. Who knows how many years all of these pics will set us back, but I don’t see playoffs for at least a minimum of two more years after this one.

[#freejame]

I’m not typically a get off my lawn type but after two failed between the legs moves I’m back to back games I don’t care for Kulich anymore. My tolerance is so low with these guys now. I’m sure he’ll be fine. They’ll all be fine. Outside of Nylander, is there anyone how didn’t find more success outside of the organization?

[Archie Lee]

18 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Here's who we've drafted in the 1st round along with who we have now for the picks.

I'm going by memory here so I can update when more astute posters correct me on this.

The long and short of this is we aren't even close to being able to field the core of a good team out of this list. 

Reinhart- Levi and 1st rounder (was it Kulich?)

Eichel- Krebs, Tuch, and 1st rounder (Östlund?)

Nylander - Joki

Mittelstadt - Byram

Dahlin - legit 1st round talent

Cozens - currently not 1st round talent

Johnson - currently not 1st round talent

Quinn - currently not 1st round talent

Power - possibly 1st round talent

Rosen - no 1st round potential

Savoie - McLeod 

Östlund - likely not 1st round potential 

Kulich - possible 1st round potential likely middle 6

Benson - possible 1st round potential likely 2nd line possible 1st line 

Helenius - possible 1st round potential.

I couldn’t disagree more. Out 1st rd decisions have been the least of our issues. Of all our 1st rd picks, the only one firmly established as not being worthy of his place in the draft is Nylander. Every other pick you have listed has either proven worthy of their draft position or it is too early to draw a final conclusion. Remember when people didn’t think Reinhart had proven himself worthy of his draft position? 

The much bigger issue has been failing to surround these players with the depth, talent, experience, coaching, and culture that breeds success. 

[JoeSchmoe]

21 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I couldn’t disagree more. Out 1st rd decisions have been the least of our issues. Of all our 1st rd picks, the only one firmly established as not being worthy of his place in the draft is Nylander. Every other pick you have listed has either proven worthy of their draft position or it is too early to draw a final conclusion. Remember when people didn’t think Reinhart had proven himself worthy of his draft position? 

The much bigger issue has been failing to surround these players with the depth, talent, experience, coaching, and culture that breeds success. 

In my analysis, if we drafted a good player but traded them... we don't get credit for the player, only the return. Obviously we'd be a lot better off if we had Reinhart and Eichel, but we don't... So the analysis counts our current situation.

[ska-T Palmtown]

I think there is a huge misconception around NHL 1st round draft picks. Outside of Dahlin/Power/Eichel/Reinhart, I think our highest recent pick is 8th? Something like 1/4 or fewer of 8th overall picks ever go on to score 300 points or more in their NHL career. Quinn's 128 games and 63 points is already inching him close to the 50% mark for 8th overall picks

Jiri Kulich was drafted 28th overall ... 12.7% chance to score 300 points. Heck, he has only a 50/50 chance to ever play 100 games. 

Isak Rosen - 14th overall and still only 21; it is straight up silly to say he has "no first round potential" when 300 games and 300 points are 60% and 26% respectively.

I think Eichel and Reinhart were the right choices - I mean, they are very good players - you can't even say they failed while they were here. The Sabres just could not hang on to them. **If they had been dumpster fires while they were here, then magically found their careers after leaving I could agree with "we don't get credit for them, but they weren't so I don't.**

For perspective, 300 games is shy of 4 full seasons.

Most of the guys you list are just wee lads, some playing their first pro year on NA ice. 

Edited December 12 by ska-T Palmtown
saw your other post

[Archie Lee]

1 minute ago, JoeSchmoe said:

In my analysis, if we drafted a good player but traded them... we don't get credit for the player, only the return. Obviously we'd be a lot better off if we had Reinhart and Eichel, but we don't... So the analysis counts our current situation.

Sure, but that speaks to my point. It isn’t who we drafted but how we manage the asset after the draft. I am certain there are teams that would look at players like Cozens and Power and believe they could be so much better in a normal NHL environment. 

[Carmel Corn]

Lousy 1st round drafting is not a new problem for this team.  Aside from Eichel and Reinhart, a lot of 1st round picks by Darcy Regier did not pan out very well either.  Our drafting has been generally cursed for decades now.  

[Flashsabre]

Outside of the Nylander pick, I don’t have a problem with the drafting in the first round. 
 

It’s not the talent. Its the culture and development that these players have walked into.

Cozens had 30 goals, Power is putting up good offensive numbers. They are definitely first round talent. They are struggling currently but that is not about talent level it is about environment and development.

[Kristian]

8 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

Lousy 1st round drafting is not a new problem for this team.  Aside from Eichel and Reinhart, a lot of 1st round picks by Darcy Regier did not pan out very well either.  Our drafting has been generally cursed for decades now.  

It’s further enhanced by the fact that I can’t remember the last time we picked a hidden gem in the later rounds.

Doesn’t have to be a Datsyuk, a Henrik Tallinder would do.

[Mustache of God]

7 minutes ago, Kristian said:

It’s further enhanced by the fact that I can’t remember the last time we picked a hidden gem in the later rounds.

Doesn’t have to be a Datsyuk, a Henrik Tallinder would do.

Victor Oloffson was a 7th round pick who, when used properly, could get close to 30 goals.

[Jorcus]

1 hour ago, ska-T Palmtown said:

I think there is a huge misconception around NHL 1st round draft picks. Outside of Dahlin/Power/Eichel/Reinhart, I think our highest recent pick is 8th? Something like 1/4 or fewer of 8th overall picks ever go on to score 300 points or more in their NHL career. Quinn's 128 games and 63 points is already inching him close to the 50% mark for 8th overall picks

Jiri Kulich was drafted 28th overall ... 12.7% chance to score 300 points. Heck, he has only a 50/50 chance to ever play 100 games. 

Isak Rosen - 14th overall and still only 21; it is straight up silly to say he has "no first round potential" when 300 games and 300 points are 60% and 26% respectively.

I think Eichel and Reinhart were the right choices - I mean, they are very good players - you can't even say they failed while they were here. The Sabres just could not hang on to them. **If they had been dumpster fires while they were here, then magically found their careers after leaving I could agree with "we don't get credit for them, but they weren't so I don't.**

For perspective, 300 games is shy of 4 full seasons.

Most of the guys you list are just wee lads, some playing their first pro year on NA ice. 

 

I often look at the number of games a drafted player plays in the NHL. If a guy plays 500 or more NHL games in general you have made a good pick. For the most part once you get past the top 10 or 12 players in any draft the odds of someone playing that many games goes down pretty quick. You do want to make that top dozen pick to be a very good player. They are not always, and they are not always a fit for your team. People overestimate what you are going to get out of any draft. If you get 2 functional NHL players out of a draft you are on par or better than most other teams. 

 

[SabreFinn]

This sure goes way back in time, but I do not think our drafting is the biggest reason. If things would be like in other NHL franchises this team would now be led by Eichel and Reinhard and young players could be developed properly. The whole Eichel situation should have been solved in a better way. ROR should not have lost his love for hockey.

Instead, Pegula and his GMs has not been professional enough to turn things around and get the players the team really need to be competitive. They keep putting young players on the team and force them to take leadership roles that they aren't ready for. And the team ends up in a eight game loosing streak. 

[phil_soisson]

3 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Here's who we've drafted in the 1st round along with who we have now for the picks.

I'm going by memory here so I can update when more astute posters correct me on this.

The long and short of this is we aren't even close to being able to field the core of a good team out of this list. 

Reinhart- Levi and 1st rounder (was it Kulich?)

Eichel- Krebs, Tuch, and 1st rounder (Östlund?)

Nylander - Joki

Mittelstadt - Byram

Dahlin - legit 1st round talent

Cozens - currently not 1st round talent

Johnson - currently not 1st round talent

Quinn - currently not 1st round talent

Power - possibly 1st round talent

Rosen - no 1st round potential

Savoie - McLeod 

Östlund - likely not 1st round potential 

Kulich - possible 1st round potential likely middle 6

Benson - possible 1st round potential likely 2nd line possible 1st line 

Helenius - possible 1st round potential.

The common denominator is Pegula.

[mjd1001]

I don't think its much bad drafting at all in recent years. The question is, what where your options? what is your opportunity cost for taking who you did?

To me its who did you pick vs who was available, but reasonably available.  Meaning, don't say they drafted a bust at 14, but a superstar was picked at 23, because if you, AND 9 other teams passed on that guy its more that guy was a surprise rather than a bad pick.

Its like look at every draft, and who are the 2-3 guys AFTER the guy you took and have they done a lot better? Of if you took a D-men and the next 3 picks were forwards, who was the next D-man after you picked and how did he do?

So if you go back 10 drafts:

2015: Eichel. That was the logical pick.

2016: Sabres took Nylander. Next forwards picked that were available: Tyson Jost, Then Logan Brown, then Michael McLeod. 

2017: Sabres took Mitts. Next forwards: Michael Rasmussen, Owen Tippet, Gabriel Vilardi.

2018: Dahlin. Logical consensus pick.

2019: Buffalo took Cozens. Next forwards: Zegras, PodKozin, Boldy.

2020: Quinn. Next forwards: Rossi, Perfetti, Lundell

2021: Power was consensus pick. If you went forward, you had Berniers as the next guy.

2022: Savoie. Next forwards were Mintyukov and Connor Geekie.

So yeah, to me its 2 things:  1. First round draft picks develop into star players a lot less than we think/want to believe.  And 2....Its almost more about Development of the guy you took where you took him as the actual pick (Hello Terry Pegula gutting staff!)

Again, if you look down the board enough, you will say "The Sabres could have taken THIS guy instead"  Instead of Cousins, would they have been better off taking Cole Caufiled? Maybe, but no one was taking Caufield at #7. Montreal would not have taken him at #7.  

The draft board among teams in the NHL I think is pretty similar.  The only 'bad draft pick' in the first round is if you have to choose between 2-3 guys who are in the same area of the board, and you make a massive mistake.  Look at the picks above, they really didn't have year after year of "they should have taken the NEXT guy"

Again, its not really bad drafting, its chance, bad development, AND maybe the roster mix you put those guys into.

As with everything else, it comes down to Pegula. Pegula gutted the scouting department. It seems the Sabres development guys, if they are good, don't stick around for long and are replaced with entry level former players learning on the job. Pegula has the team spending under the cap so you aren't bringing in enough GOOD veterans for the young guys to play with.  The criticism of Adams being awful always baffles me. I mean, maybe he IS awful. But tell me what GM is going to do better when he is operating 1.) with Pegula in his ear all the time. 2.) knowing he has the job because the other guy didn't follow Pegula's orders so he was fired. 3.) it is likely, VERY likely the Sabres have to operate under a budget/cap that is lower than the rest of the teams (imposed by Pegula). 4.) even when he is given autonomy from Pegula making a decision, the front office/hockey department has been set up to operate as a 'unit'. All the guys under (and in the case of Pegula over) Adams have input. I'm personally pretty sure if Adams wanted to make a move but if Pegula was present and saw Karmanos and Forton and others disagreed, then Adams would not be allowed to make that move. 95% of this team's issues are Pegula.

Not drafting. Not drafting in and of itself.

Edited December 12 by mjd1001

[DarthEbriate]

The 1st round picks have not been a problem since 2005-06 when they had back-to-back NHL no-shows. But since then, only Nylander projects to play fewer than 500 NHL games (and even he is back in the NHL again), with Rosen, Savoie, Östlund, Kulich, Benson, and Helenius way too soon to make a determination on.

Sure, you might go back in time and take Tomas Hertl and Tom Wilson instead of Grigs and Girgs, but put those two players on a team designed to tank and they'd have likely had their potential go unrealized as well.

[DarthEbriate]

Heck, even Armia (he of 1 GP in Buffalo before becoming Kane/Bogo) is still kicking around the league. He settled in as a solid 3/4 PKer (15 career shorties).

There are some NHL players selected in the 15 first round picks after him, but no one phenomenal. At the end of the first is Rickard Rakell and another 10 picks later is Boone Jenner. But Armia compared to his available peers is.... fine.

[JP51]

3 hours ago, Carmel Corn said:

Lousy 1st round drafting is not a new problem for this team.  Aside from Eichel and Reinhart, a lot of 1st round picks by Darcy Regier did not pan out very well either.  Our drafting has been generally cursed for decades now.  

Literally back to Reiger who I hated... when have we drafted a superstar and the very few who are we have traded away and are worse as a team because we have.... and its not even in the 1st round... just over all, where are the players in rds 2 thru 5 that make that serious impact... other teams do it... we have not done it in decades at least in any meaningful way. 

[ska-T Palmtown]

24 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Literally back to Reiger who I hated... when have we drafted a superstar and the very few who are we have traded away and are worse as a team because we have.... and its not even in the 1st round... just over all, where are the players in rds 2 thru 5 that make that serious impact... other teams do it... we have not done it in decades at least in any meaningful way. 

JJP is a second round pick, no?

[inkman]

4 hours ago, ska-T Palmtown said:

I think there is a huge misconception around NHL 1st round draft picks.

 

I think most knowledgeable fans understand the odds of mid to lower 1st round picks succeeding in the NHL and what their time lines look like.  The person who you want to take exception with is @JoeSchmoe.  

[Mango]

So few draft picks end up really doing anything in the NHL no matter where they are picked in the draft. 

I think we have drafted "well enough". It has been development and roster construction that has held us back. 

[mjd1001]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

So few draft picks end up really doing anything in the NHL no matter where they are picked in the draft. 

I think we have drafted "well enough". It has been development and roster construction that has held us back. 

Exactly.

Looking back at the last 5-10 years, I think the #1 thing that if you changed would make this team better is spending more/closer to the cap.

Not a specific draft pick or drafting overall. No even who the coach is. 

But if every year that you had cap space you slightly overpayed for just one extra GOOD veteran, and you overpayed a bit to bring in someone better than Erik Johnson.  Just 2, maybe 3 extra GOOD vets to play with the young guys, to be good enough to win one or two extra games a year, and this entire situation would be a lot better.

And yes, you weren't good and this is Buffalo, so you might have to overpay. But if you are/were $10m under the cap, give a guy who someone else offers 2 years at $10m, give that guy 3 years at $18-$20m to come here.  Maybe you do that via making a trade at the deadline, weaponize your cap space to bring in a player and then get him to stay here with that 'overpay'.

They could have. They didn't. Terry didn't want to spend any extra money until the wins and fans came back first.

Edited December 12 by mjd1001

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

2016: Sabres took Nylander. Next forwards picked that were available: Tyson Jost, Then Logan Brown, then Michael McLeod. 

The needed pick was to draft the big D Sergachev who went next at 8 overall.

The drafting in and of itself isn't the issue.   The issue with this team is roster construction and proper development.  For example: Having 3 "star" puck moving D who are "great" in the offensive zone, but have no D on the roster who can clear the front of the next, cover up the mistakes of the offensive D and make a good first pass to clear the D zone quickly is a recipe for failure.

Compare the skill set of this current team to the 2005/5 D group.

2005/6

Puck movers - Campbell, Numminen & Kalinin

Good Defensive D - Tallinder, Lydman & McKee

Today

Puck movers - Dahlin, Power & Byram

Good defensive D - None

Other D - Samuelsson, Clifton and Jokiharju

Back in 2005/6 the puck movers Campbell and Kalinin weren’t great defensively, but they made an effort and would hit someone once in a while.  Teppo could do everything.

Dahlin can do everything, but he is alone.  Byram and Power make zero pretense at even trying defensively. Byram at least try to hit someone once in a while.  Until that changes and we get a few good actual D to play with Dahlin and either Byram or Power (one needs to get traded), this team is DOA regardless of how well or don't well they draft.

 

Edited December 12 by GASabresIUFAN

[Pimlach]

8 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Here's who we've drafted in the 1st round along with who we have now for the picks.

I'm going by memory here so I can update when more astute posters correct me on this.

The long and short of this is we aren't even close to being able to field the core of a good team out of this list. 

Reinhart- Levi and 1st rounder (was it Kulich?)

Eichel- Krebs, Tuch, and 1st rounder (Östlund?)

Nylander - Joki

Mittelstadt - Byram

Dahlin - legit 1st round talent

Cozens - currently not 1st round talent

Johnson - currently not 1st round talent

Quinn - currently not 1st round talent

Power - possibly 1st round talent

Rosen - no 1st round potential

Savoie - McLeod 

Östlund - likely not 1st round potential 

Kulich - possible 1st round potential likely middle 6

Benson - possible 1st round potential likely 2nd line possible 1st line 

Helenius - possible 1st round potential.

Your use of the words talent and potential are confusing. 

Every single player listed had first round grades (which means they had first round talent and potential) before the draft, maybe R Johnson didn't (he was picked at 31).  Unfortunately, the benefit of your hindsight is not available on draft day.  Besides that, the players you cite were drafted by 3 different GMs.   

No need for me to cover Murray and Bots picks, it is way in the past. The problem we have right now with the current GM, Kevyn Adams, and his thinking that many of these prospects will be good NHL players right away. 

Adams mistakes are much more about how he handled all the draft capital that he compiled from letting good players go, more than it is about who he picked in the draft.  The NHL draft is not a sure thing and his picks are still very young  

•  There were years he had multiple picks, he did not trade any #1 picks prior to draft day for proven NHL talent that could help the team win and help the younger players develop in a good environment. 
•  He signed only cheap veteran JAGs and/or over the hill vets to make it easy for his prospects to make the team. ->   "No Blockers" 
• Pushing 6 rookies (or young near rookies) onto the NHL roster all in one year (the 91 point season had Power, Samuelsson, Peterka, Quinn, Cozens, Krebs all rookies or close to rookie status).   How many of those 6 players are thriving today?  Answer = None.  
• Inability to bring in worthy veteran help.  When he learned that he could not get impactful vets to come here he doubled down even more on his prospects.  This mistake allows Benson to make the team at 18, in a year that Adams said was all about playoffs.   Benson is a hard worker but he is still 19, and still growing.  This season he will get us ~12 goals while being a negative player on the ice.  Was the decision to keep him up at 18 smart?   The TNT crew talked about Benson quite a bit.  Mostly as a curiosity, since he was the most tenacious player on the team.  Which is a huge indictment on Adams roster construction .  

Adams inherited terrible conditions that most veteran GMs would probably walk away from, his two emerging stars (Eichel, Reinhart) wanted out and he complied - "wants only players that want to be here".   He has and internal cap (or he did).  He has problems getting the needed veteran help - he likely knew about this ahead of time. 

Gretzky and the TNT crew talked about the NHL and the current trend for rebuilding teams to develop prospects in the NHL, rather than in the minors.  Adams misjudged his prospects talent and the real timeline to develop it.  Clearly this team is hurt by their own past (and by the decisions made by the current ownership) as impactful vets in their prime will not come here if they can avoid it.  

Soon the next batch of emerging stars will want out too.  Some of the young players on your list will be good players in this league, and we will be pissed to see them thriving elsewhere in the league.  

Drafting is not the root cause of the problem.  The team has not been run by a capable NHL GM since Regier was fired long ago.  The front office is considered a joke.  The problem is that the owner is the POHO.   

 

Edited December 12 by Pimlach

[klos1963]

1 hour ago, JP51 said:

Literally back to Reiger who I hated... when have we drafted a superstar and the very few who are we have traded away and are worse as a team because we have.... and its not even in the 1st round... just over all, where are the players in rds 2 thru 5 that make that serious impact... other teams do it... we have not done it in decades at least in any meaningful way. 

Regier is arguably the best GM we've had. Punch is certainly in the discussion,  but different era.

Never understood the hate for him.  So much success,  yet he gets the blame for Golisano not spending to retain his stars.