Lines at practice today 12/08/24---if anyone cares

[Pimlach]

7 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I would still like to see Cozens get a 5-10 game stretch playing with two veterans instead of two players younger than him.  I would take 5 games of him just playing wing with McLeod and Greenway. I’m not blaming Quinn, Benson, Kulich, and Peterka for Cozens’s struggles, but it is sad to me that we have not found a way to give Cozens at least one legit veteran line mate to play with. 

I don’t hate trying Krebs with Thompson. As a prospect, Krebs was a pass-first, assist per game, type player. Obviously that has not materialized in the NHL, but he also has not been given an extended period of playing time with players like Tuch and Thompson. 

The theme of this post is that we continue to expect too much from too many young players.

I have said this in the past.  He is always playing with the younger guys so seeing him on a line with Greenway and Mcleod would be nice. That really can't happen this year without adding a veteran 2C, unless you think Krebs and Kulich can carry that load, which I don't think they can do at this time.   Next year we may not have Greenway and McLeod.  

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

It is sad in some ways that Cozens is getting so much flak because the GM paid him too much too soon, that expectations were quickly set at 2C, and that he wears an "A" when he still lacks big game experience and know-how in this league.   Reality can be painful at times.  

Yes and No.

Even despite the contract and the "A". Lets say Cozens was only getting paid half as much and didn't have an "A".  That still leaves him:

-As the guy you have given the most Powerplay time to above any other forward on the team this year, and gets the vast majority of his starts in the offensive zone, yet:

--Is playing as an 18 goal, 36 point, -18 plus minus Center losing the majority of his faceoffs, with only a single power play goal in all that PP time, who makes a lot of bad plays without the puck causing chances against, shooting at 8.3%.

--That is a top 10 pick with now over 300 games experience, in his 5th NHL season, who just came off of a season where he scored 18 goals, was a minus player on a plus team, and shot 9%. Even last year he was 4th among all your forwards in PP time

He is so 'un-clutch' that he had one single game winning goal the entire year last year, and only 1 this year (2 of his last 24 goals were game winners. For comparison, Alex Tuch has 8 of his last 30 goals being game winners over the same time perios))

Even without the money and the "A", I think a lot of us are upset that he continues, for going on 1.5 years, to be a high draft pick who is now mature in the NHL, making mistakes over and over and yet getting some of the best ice time and best chances while not delivering.  The fact he is getting paid $7m per year on a long term contract and has an "A" is simply the small cherry on top of the hugely disappointing sundae.

 

Edited December 8 by mjd1001

[SABRES 0311]

Those are…sum type of lines 👍 😬 

[steveoath]

I’d like to see greenway cozens and malenstyn on a line just battering ***** out of everything. 

[mjd1001]

Peterka's stats recently are a bit alarming:

-9 times he had over 20 minutes of ice time.  Lindy must no like something because, despite being down in some recent games and needing scoring, Peterka hasn't had over 20 minutes of ice time since the Vancouver game on November 29th.

-In his last 11 games:  1 goals, 2 assists, -12.  A minus 12 in 11 games is REALLY bad.

-He's had shots, but is only shooting 4.5% in those games over the past month or so.

I'm not worried about him like I am about Quinn and Cozens. Not yet.  But he really hasn't contributed much of anything in a positive way.

 

[Stoner]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

Suzuki and Stutzle were both more productive for at least a couple of seasons before they got that deal. Cozens had one good s again and one meh season. 

It almost reminds me of Skinner-lite or a pass rusher who hit double digits the first time in a contract year. 

Suzuki and Stutzle are Chet and Muffy's grandkids. Book it!

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

Suzuki and Stutzle were both more productive for at least a couple of seasons before they got that deal. Cozens had one good s again and one meh season. 

It almost reminds me of Skinner-lite or a pass rusher who hit double digits the first time in a contract year. 

The thing about those 2 vs Cozens....

I have heard from a lot of people who dive deeper into stats that at a team level, and that a player level, Shooting percentage is something to look for that can 'revert to the mean'. Meaning if an entire team, or a player, has a career year...but the shots they take, the location of the shots, if many of the metrics are similar to other years but their SHOOTING percentage is higher, it may be a sign it isn't sustainable.

Suzuki and Stutzle had more than one year of production/10%+ shooting percentage before signing. Cozens had 49 games and earned his deal off of that.

Cozens signed his huge contract about half way through the 2022-23 season when he was shooting 14.5% over 49 good games over 1/2 a season and was a plus +1 over that time. 

He didn't get that deal over him scoring 13 goals in full season the year before where he was a -19. He didn't get it off his rookie year where he scored 4 goals in half a season.  Basically, before those 49 games that he earned that contract on, his career was 17 goals and 34 assists over 120 games and a MINUS -34.  (an 82 game pace of 11.5 goals, 23 assists, and -23)

Again, so his contract was mostly based on production over those 49 games.  So, what is his entire CAREER other than those 49 games? Before and after he signed the new deal?  a 9.3% shooting percentage over 258 games, minus -48, and an 82 game pace of about 16.5 goals per 82.

The Sabres made him the 2nd highest paid player on the team (at the time) and the 2nd highest paid forward overall (just a fraction behind Tage who scores at more than double the pace Cozens does and this year is scoring at almost triple the pace Cozens is), based on under 4 months and 49 games of play.

There are some people that aren't fans of Tage, but him and Cozens got about the same deal, at about the same time.  But even if you take out Cozens rookie year where he only scored 4 goals, From 2021-22 to present, for the same money, Thompson has 128 goals to Cozens 68. And as much as some people don't like Tage's defense, Cozens has made a LOT more bad plays costing obvious goals against that probably any player on the team.

Ok, there is my bi-monthly Cozens rant.

Edited December 8 by mjd1001

[North Buffalo]

5 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

nope... ill watch but meh

[Night Train]

5 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

[mjd1001]

5 hours ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

Ok, it is not a cup winning looking lineup that is for sure.

Krebs is not a great player, but I'm willing to see what he does for one game up there (knowing Lindy it might be a few shifts before he sees something he doesn't like though).  Krebs was my whipping boy on this forum for the last 1.5 years, maybe even as much as Cozens.  But I have liked glimpses of his game this year. Again, does he deserve first line time? No, but why not at this point?

McLeod on the '2nd' line, hopefully that means 2nd line minutes (1-2 more minutes per game than he averages)

Greenway back. I never loved his game, but wow, could this team use him. Hope he plays.  Cozens on wing, and on what looks to be a 3rd line.  Best thing I have seen on this. Now keep him off of special teams also.

Kozak on the 4th line. Well he scored 1, maybe 2 goals in 2 games so far  

D-unit. I want to see Johnson play again, teaming him with Byram I hope will be good.

Power-Joki?  with that combo you could get a great game that gives you the win OR they could single handedly be the reason you lose.

Bryson-Clifton. I think they are a fine 3rd pair.  Not great, but I do not think they hurt you anymore than most 3rd pairs hurt.  But if Samuelsson and Gilbert play instead, so be it, don't care too much.

 

If they play with these lines, I hope Lindy stick with them for the whole game. Some changes will at least be SOMETHING to look at and talk about.

[inkman]

 

[Stoner]

 

[Broken Ankles]

5 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Krebs on the 1st line is the ultimate desperation move. 

Highly symbolic of how we've seen this team being run since Pegula's tenure.

Agree with Krebs. In a similar manner, why have an AHL call up on your top pair? With Rasmus out, and Powers struggles, Byrum is going to get top minutes. Which means Johnson will see big minutes.  And one of the two will have to play on their offhand when together.  Did Gilbert have that bad a game?  I mean compared to others? One of the few players who actually hit, separated man from puck, and put a body in front of the net. 

[Weave]

We’ve seen Lindy do this before.  In years past when the energy wasn’t there, when the top 6 isn’t producing. Lindy usually put an energy guy on each line to get some change of pace on each line.

I’m surprised he didn’t do this sooner.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, steveoath said:

I’d like to see greenway cozens and malenstyn on a line just battering ***** out of everything. 

When has Cozens ever battered anyone?

[Stads]

[John Tucker]

Jokiharju/Power… yep

[SABRES 0311]

After looking at these lines it’s clear Ruff is doing everything possible. If they don’t go on a tear, it’s even more evident team construction (GM) is the culprit.

[SABRES 0311]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

When has Cozens ever battered anyone?

He made Hathaway’s knuckles hurt last year 🤷‍♂️ 

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

He made Hathaway’s knuckles hurt last year 🤷‍♂️ 

You know I hate to think it, but that is the moment he broke. He's never been the same player since that fight. 

[mjd1001]

13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You know I hate to think it, but that is the moment he broke. He's never been the same player since that fight. 

Cozens last year before the fight:  10gp, 3g, 4a, -1 (82 game pace of 24.6 goals, 33 assists, 57.4 points -8.2)

Last year from the fight game on: 69gp, 15g, 25a -3 (82 game pace of 18 goals, 30 assists, 47.5 points -3.5)

Statistically not a huge difference. 

As far as his play away from the puck, I remember he was pretty bad and made mistakes early in the year before the fight, and he just kept on making the same dumb mistakes after the fight.

For me personally, that fight I can use as a turning point as a kind of 'mental crutch'.  Meaning, he came off of a 31 goal year, so the 3 goals in 10 games was only 'slightly' off that pace and not signficant enough for me to think he was anything other than a 30 goal scorer. 

Did the fight actually impact his play? Or has his play since the beginning of last year actually been who he is, before and after the fight, as he came off of a one-time career year?  Do we simply use the fight as a MacGuffin for the narrative that it was a turning point?  His stats weren't that much different after the fight as they were before...and the team as a whole statistically played almost the same, and actually slightly better after he came back from the fight with him in the lineup....with him playing more minutes.....than the team played before he got in the fight with him playing less minutes per game.

Even hitting. A little obscure of a stat but before the fight, he was averaging 1.20 hits per game. After the fight game 1.35 hits per game.  So hardly any difference of note. But he didn't shy away from the physical game, he had slightly, SLIGHTLY more hits per game after he got in the fight than before it.

Had the fight not happened and he continued to score at that lower pace, by the end of the year I would have thought....last year was a mirage I guess.  The fight just happens to be conveniently at a time (with the subsequent games missed after) to allow us, and myself included, to put significance to it meaning something. When in reality, the whole season last year, before and after the fight, may have been him just reverting to the norm after a career year.

Edited December 9 by mjd1001

[inkman]

13 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

When has Cozens ever battered anyone?

He smashed that dudes fist with his face several times 

[Pimlach]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

You know I hate to think it, but that is the moment he broke. He's never been the same player since that fight. 

Not true.  He was playing poorly before the fight and the team was losing.  He got frustrated and picked the wrong dance partner.  Losing a fight is not his problem.  Playing 2C minutes and PP minutes when he is a 3rd liner is his problem. 

Edited December 9 by Pimlach

[WhenWillItEnd66]

3 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Not true.  He was playing poorly before the fight and the team was losing.  He got frustrated and picked the wrong dance partner.  Losing a fight is not his problem.  Playing 2C minutes and PP minutes when he is a 3rd liner is his problem. 

Totally agree! This team really missed the mark on a functional 2nd line. Does not require superstars. just solid players. KA truly missed the mark there

[WhenWillItEnd66]

This team is built fundamentally wrong. They got fast players, but it has not helped. Now we have a bunch of fast not so skilled players that won't go to the front of the net...LOL Our defense is not built to be hard to play against. It is actually quite the opposite. They can score and be scored upon quite easily as we have recently seen. This team has not been able to handle a forechecking team in at least 15 years. Not sure where this team is going, but i will bet the farm it is not a playoff spot!!! I will watch as growing up a Sabres fan i have learned to do, but the game goes off when it goes south. Not going to lose my mind over this disaster. They may be bigger, but they are far from defensive and aggressive with the exception of the PK.