Bowen Byram- Really Bad... But Not The Worst Anymore

[inkman]

13 minutes ago, Night Train said:

Muel is the worst player. He does next to nothing every night. 

What do you mean?  I see terrible plays, taking the wrong guy, shooting the puck into the other teams skates only to turn into a fast break for the opposition and just overall suckitude on a nightly basis. 

[Idemo Buffalo]

On 10/29/2024 at 4:10 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

Cozens and Quinn get all the attention, but Byram is the worst player on the team right now.

 

 

[JoeSchmoe]

5 minutes ago, Idemo Buffalo said:

 

I'll update the thread and title tomorrow. He was still terrible on the goal against, but Cozens, Quinn, and possibly a few others may be competing for that coveted #1 spot.

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

On 11/1/2024 at 10:53 AM, Weave said:

Unpopular opinion forthcoming.

The only reason the Mitts trade is a failure is because KA misjudged Cozens.  

I believe the plan was set based on the assumption that Cozens would be as effective as Mitts, harder to play against than Mitts, and the team wanted a defense first 3rd line center anyway.

Had Cozens not started the season with a thud, we wouldn’t miss Mitts 5v5 with McLeod changing the role of the 3rd line.

Alas, Mr. Adam’s expectations for Cozens were a just a bit loftier than reality.

I like our defense roster.  I am less concerned about it than I am the forward group.

 

On 11/1/2024 at 11:52 AM, GASabresIUFAN said:

This is exactly what KA's rationale was and he figured one of his prospect would step up in the next year or two to make us forget about Mitts.  The issue, like all KA decisions is based on assumptions that aren't based in reality.  Cozens is not a playmaker.  Cozens' shooting % outside of his big year are lousy.  

The biggest issue with trading Mitts was it eliminated the team's best forward playmaker with no one in the hopper to replace that skill set.  

How much better would this team be if KA had retained Mitts, still traded for McLeod, and then went out are traded for or signed a RHD stay at home D to play with either Power or Dahlin?  We'd be better defensively, better skills at forward, and deeper at center.  

Agreed, but most likely GMKA thought he could pull off one more move for a top 6 forward this offseason to add experience and talent.  That would have given Ruff more options in the top 9.  He couldn't get it done and I think this is why we are hearing rumors of GMKA looking to make a trade right now...

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

On 11/1/2024 at 6:49 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

This team would be better right now if KA had found the D version of Zucker and not re-signed Joki.  

 

On 11/1/2024 at 7:42 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

Power's been his partner so he's been dragged down. Power was good for this stat last year.

One of Joker, Byram, or Power will not be on this team by the trade deadline (hopefully before).  Surprisingly Joker has played his best hockey as a Sabre this season, but he seems like the type of guy that would fit into any system well - as this seems like what he does best.

Byram and Power are redundant on this team, but I'd rather have Power at this point as he has way more upside and I think will do well under a couple seasons of Ruff.

[PerreaultForever]

I thought Byram played his best game of the year against Ottawa. As such Quinn deserves the #1 worst label now. He still sucks. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, SHAAAUGHT!!! said:

Surprisingly Joker has played his best hockey as a Sabre this season, but he seems like the type of guy that would fit into any system well - as this seems like what he does best.

Joker has been so bad (and Samuelsson), Lindy benched them in favor of Bryson and Gilbert.  If anyone is getting traded, it's one of these two (Joki and Samuelsson), but Samuelsson's contract is untradeable at this point.

Byram did have his best game as a Sabre tonight.  It was a pleasant surprise.  Hopefully he can build from there.

[spndnchz]

On 10/29/2024 at 4:10 PM, JoeSchmoe said:

Cozens and Quinn get all the attention, but Byram is the worst player on the team right now.

He has the LEAST % of defensive zone starts and has the 3rd MOST % offensive zone starts among D (5 on 5). Everything is aligned in his favour.

His relative expected goals is -15.2% (how good we are when he's on the ice vs when he's off the ice with 0% being team average). That's a fair bit worse than all of our much maligned 2nd line.

Worse yet, we gave up our top scorer last year to get him. We'd for sure be better off with Bryson, Johnson, or Clague (I'm not sure on Gilbert).

That’s a pretty bold statement there Schmoe

[PerreaultForever]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Joker has been so bad (and Samuelsson), Lindy benched them in favor of Bryson and Gilbert.  If anyone is getting traded, it's one of these two (Joki and Samuelsson), but Samuelsson's contract is untradeable at this point.

Byram did have his best game as a Sabre tonight.  It was a pleasant surprise.  Hopefully he can build from there.

I still think Samuelsson lost his mojo so to speak with the injuries. He's afraid to get hurt so he doesn't block shots the same way and isn't physical. Makes him very ineffective. He has to get over that and start paying the price. He's not skilled enough to be a different guy. 

Jokiharju I've never thought all that much of and would still like to see him replaced. We have better puck movers than him already so if you are keeping Byram, there's no need for a Jokiharju. 

[LTS]

7 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I still think Samuelsson lost his mojo so to speak with the injuries. He's afraid to get hurt so he doesn't block shots the same way and isn't physical. Makes him very ineffective. He has to get over that and start paying the price. He's not skilled enough to be a different guy. 

Jokiharju I've never thought all that much of and would still like to see him replaced. We have better puck movers than him already so if you are keeping Byram, there's no need for a Jokiharju. 

I think that's exactly why Byram was acquired. It was just the wrong time and way to do it.

[Sabres73]

Living in Vancouver, the local sports media is drooling at the thought of making a lop-sided trade for Byram. Keep calling him the worst player on the team and there will be regrets.

[Jorcus]

17 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

Living in Vancouver, the local sports media is drooling at the thought of making a lop-sided trade for Byram. Keep calling him the worst player on the team and there will be regrets.

 

Interesting being that they have Quinn Hughes. Any specific reasons why he is a target for Vancouver? What are they missing that points to Byram?

[Ctaeth]

32 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

Living in Vancouver, the local sports media is drooling at the thought of making a lop-sided trade for Byram. Keep calling him the worst player on the team and there will be regrets.

The media in Vancouver is talking about Byram?  More info please?

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, LTS said:

I think that's exactly why Byram was acquired. It was just the wrong time and way to do it.

I guess, but then he should have made a proper decision on Jokiharju in the off season and/or traded Samuelsson to Philly (as I believe they had interest in him) and then signed one of the free agents that were out there along the Gilbert lines. Dillon or one of the other rugged reliable journeymen. 

Indecision or ineptitude but it costs us and we still have that hole on line 2 since Quinn isn't getting it done. 

35 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

Living in Vancouver, the local sports media is drooling at the thought of making a lop-sided trade for Byram. Keep calling him the worst player on the team and there will be regrets.

I've also heard there's talk of them moving out Petterson. They talk a lot in Vancouver.  

[mjd1001]

57 minutes ago, Sabres73 said:

Living in Vancouver, the local sports media is drooling at the thought of making a lop-sided trade for Byram. Keep calling him the worst player on the team and there will be regrets.

Right now I don't think the Sabres are looking to move him at all.  Despite this thread and some people here who don't like that, Ruff must really trust/like him because he is getting the 2nd most ice time on the team, only behind Dahlin.

[Jorcus]

Found a story in Yardbarker. More or less just talk to fill slow times but interesting to see that Vancouver would like another mobile D man. 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/should_the_canucks_trade_for_sabres_defenceman_bowen_byram/s1_15359_41188764

 

 

[JoeSchmoe]

Here's an update... Cozens has overtaken Byram as the defacto worst player on the team when looking at relative expected goals.

What's interesting though, is even though Byram got the 2 goals last night, he was still a net negative xG% player across the entire game at 35.1%. The Sens goal he coasted in on (not picking up his man) probably cost him.

Anyhow... Enjoy the new thread title.

[Sabres73]

3 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 

Interesting being that they have Quinn Hughes. Any specific reasons why he is a target for Vancouver? What are they missing that points to Byram?

Keep in mind he's a BC boy and played for the WHL Vancouver Giants

Edited November 6 by Sabres73

[Sabres73]

Personally I don't think there's anything to it, just reporters making up a story for the sake of it. It's not that different from in the 80's when not-too-sharp hockey fans would say things like "we should trade for Gretzky, he's good" when they had little to offer in return. I doubt this is on KA's radar, although there have been comments from people like Friedman (who didn't really have much to offer, doubt he's heard anything).

Here's the likely source of the initial chit chat https://canucksarmy.com/news/should-vancouver-canucks-trade-sabres-defenceman-bowen-byram 

Edited November 6 by Sabres73

[Freeezo]

3 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 

Interesting being that they have Quinn Hughes. Any specific reasons why he is a target for Vancouver? What are they missing that points to Byram?

Missing a 3 and 4 defender. .same reason we targeted him

[Broken Ankles]

1 hour ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Here's an update... Cozens has overtaken Byram as the defacto worst player on the team when looking at relative expected goals.

What's interesting though, is even though Byram got the 2 goals last night, he was still a net negative xG% player across the entire game at 35.1%. The Sens goal he coasted in on (not picking up his man) probably cost him.

Anyhow... Enjoy the new thread title.

The top 4 makes sense, and leads me to believe in the algorithm. Number 5 - ahhhh not so much. He and #7 just received a night in the press box for what I assume can only be based on recent play.  McLeod, Greenway and Zucker have been solid in my opinion.  

  Agree with the sentiment from others Quinn and Cozens have struggled so their low numbers also make sense. 

[JoeSchmoe]

4 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

The top 4 makes sense, and leads me to believe in the algorithm. Number 5 - ahhhh not so much. He and #7 just received a night in the press box for what I assume can only be based on recent play.  McLeod, Greenway and Zucker have been solid in my opinion.  

  Agree with the sentiment from others Quinn and Cozens have struggled so their low numbers also make sense. 

5 and 7 have two of the worst actual goal % on the team. In 5's case, the algorithm says he should be a +1 based on scoring chances for and against but he's actually a -5. 

[mjd1001]

Every game that goes by Cozens is just a wealth of new conversation for this forum....

I'm 90% there to accepting who he is, and that is someone that isn't going to change much anymore.  He is not a good 2 way player, makes serious lapses in decision making in the neutral and defensive zone. He is someone I think would be better on wing but the Sabres are insistent he is a center. 

But he is also a skilled skater who is capable of generating his own shots in the offensive zone.  That is the key, and the frustrating part. Other than Tage, he is probably the BEST player on the team at getting to prime scoring areas and getting shots off from there.  He's not going to be a guy who shoots 20% like Draisaitl, Reinhart or Scheifle....hes not even going to be a 15% shooter like Petterson or Marner or Bo Horvat or even Tage.  He might have 12-14% in him one or two more years in his career, but he is, basically, an 8% shooter.

When you have an 8% shooter, you have some stretches of a couple months, or even seasons where you can do 12%+, but you also have stretches (months maybe) of 2-4%.

So, for $7m per year (which, as the cap goes up in the next few years, might not look so bad), can we accept this from Cozens without feeling the need to scapegoat him?

-Can we accept that he will have months where he scores 6 goals in a month or 10 goals in 20 game where everyone says "He's back!" but then he follows that up with no goals in 7 or 8 in a row?

-Can we accept that he may have a 25-30+ goal season in him again, but then, for no apparent reason, he follows that up with a full 82 game season where he is your 2nd line center (with Power play minutes) and scores only 10-15 goals and 45 points?

I am very close to thinking that is who he is.  That he is going to break out of his shooting slump soon and put in 4 or 5 goals in a month, but then disappear again shortly after.

Sorry for the length of this post but here is one example of the best case scenario. Patrice Bergeron. Now I'm not even remotely saying he can be as good as Bergeron...Bergeron was one of the best defensive forwards in modern history...but best case scenario could be his offensive game and how it COULD evolve.

-Bergeron's first year in the NHL he scored 16. He followed that up with 31 goals in a full season as a 21 year old. Then down to 22. Then he got hurt and only scored 3 in an shortened season, but came back the next (mostly) full year with only 8 goals, and followed that up with 19, 22, 22 and then 10 in a shortened season. So with a very early season of 31 goals as a 20 year old, Boston fans thought they had and up and coming offensive superstar. But it took him 8 FULL SEASONS until he hit 30 again.

Bergeron for his career only shot 10.7%. Like Cozens he was good at getting to the good scoring areas and took a lot of shots. He had full seasons only shooting 7% or 8% over the entire season, but as he got OLDER his shooting went up.

Cozens is likely never going to be even close to the shut-down specialist Bergeron was. But, he can still evolve his offensive game, and even lacking accuracy in his shot, hopefull that can improve. 

If you don't like that comparison, look at Drew Stafford. WILD swings in shooting percentage, wild swings in scoring, from season to season. He may just be like that.

It may take years. Not weeks, not months, but YEARS.

Edited November 7 by mjd1001

[LTS]

22 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

I guess, but then he should have made a proper decision on Jokiharju in the off season and/or traded Samuelsson to Philly (as I believe they had interest in him) and then signed one of the free agents that were out there along the Gilbert lines. Dillon or one of the other rugged reliable journeymen. 

Indecision or ineptitude but it costs us and we still have that hole on line 2 since Quinn isn't getting it done. 

I've also heard there's talk of them moving out Petterson. They talk a lot in Vancouver.  

I can only speculate but I perhaps retaining Jokiharju was hedging his bet and creating competition?  it can all be his inability to be decisive as well. I don't know. I don't think the Byram trade was a great one.  Perhaps he thought Quinn was going to replace Mitts' impact on the lineup, but he's been terribly incorrect about that.

 

[Pimlach]

So what will happen with this thread?  Is it a topic that lives?  

Is the OP going to update the fancy stats and change the title names every week?   

 

 

Edited November 7 by Pimlach