Bowen Byram- Really Bad... But Not The Worst Anymore

[Second Line Center]

On 10/29/2024 at 4:24 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

.... and Power hasn't been much better.  

I said the Byram Power pair was a mistake in camp and I'm not surprised that it failed miserably.  

When Cozens, Power, Byram and Quinn are your worst players, your team is in trouble.  Power and Cozen are grossly overpaid at 15 mill.  Combine them with Byram and Quinn is a huge problem for this team as they are central players to Adams rebuild.  Quinn and Byram, two other high draft picks, are at least playing their way into cheaper contracts.  

To bad Casey only has 13 points (6 goals) in 10 games.  No way the Sabres could use a player like that.  

 

I'd probably want to take that trade back if we could.  That said…

Casey has 8 of his points at 5 on 5.  He has 5 points on the PP.  He’s playing 20 minutes a night.  Colorado is 5-6 with a minus 8 goal differential.  Casey is a minus 6.  
 

Cozens has 3 points at 5 on 5 and is a minus 2 playing 18 minutes a night.  
 

Make of all this what you will at the moment.  But I’m not reaching any conclusions on this trade yet.  And I don’t think Byram has been bad.  He’s been …. Ok.   
 

We still have a lot of “figuring out” going on.  It’s coming tho.  They’re getting close - need the goaltending to be better.   

Edited November 1 by Second Line Center

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Second Line Center said:

Casey has 8 of his points at 5 on 5.  He has 5 points on the PP.  He’s playing 20 minutes a night.  Colorado is 5-6 with a minus 8 goal differential.  Casey is a minus 6.  

Makar -7, McKinnon -5.  Their issue was Georgiev in goal.  He has a 4.62 gaa and an .822 save %.  Casey -6 in the 1st 4 games as the Avs started 0-4 behind Georgiev's horrible play.  Since then the Avs are 5-2 and Casey has 3g 7a in those 7 games.

[Weave]

Unpopular opinion forthcoming.

The only reason the Mitts trade is a failure is because KA misjudged Cozens.  

I believe the plan was set based on the assumption that Cozens would be as effective as Mitts, harder to play against than Mitts, and the team wanted a defense first 3rd line center anyway.

Had Cozens not started the season with a thud, we wouldn’t miss Mitts 5v5 with McLeod changing the role of the 3rd line.

Alas, Mr. Adam’s expectations for Cozens were a just a bit loftier than reality.

I like our defense roster.  I am less concerned about it than I am the forward group.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

I believe the plan was set based on the assumption that Cozens would be as effective as Mitts, harder to play against than Mitts, and the team wanted a defense first 3rd line center anyway.

Had Cozens not started the season with a thud, we wouldn’t miss Mitts 5v5 with McLeod changing the role of the 3rd line.

This is exactly what KA's rationale was and he figured one of his prospect would step up in the next year or two to make us forget about Mitts.  The issue, like all KA decisions is based on assumptions that aren't based in reality.  Cozens is not a playmaker.  Cozens' shooting % outside of his big year are lousy.  

The biggest issue with trading Mitts was it eliminated the team's best forward playmaker with no one in the hopper to replace that skill set.  

PS.  Our defense was and remains bad.  They are still giving up way to many HDCA.  They also struggle to clear the D zone when the opponent has a heavy forecheck.  Power isn't physical at all (4 hits on the season) and he and Clifton are giveaway machines.  Byram, for all his alleged offensive skill, has only taken 8 shots in 10 games, the lowest amount from all Sabres starting D.  Clifton and Dahlin continue to take costly penalties.  The truth about our defense is that they are a bunch of misfit toys.  Lots of O skill and skating ability, but poor execution coupled with a complete lack of in-zone D skills are a huge negative for the team.  

How much better would this team be if KA had retained Mitts, still traded for McLeod, and then went out are traded for or signed a RHD stay at home D to play with either Power or Dahlin?  We'd be better defensively, better skills at forward, and deeper at center.  

Edited November 1 by GASabresIUFAN

[JoeSchmoe]

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Byram, for all his alleged offensive skill, has only taken 8 shots in 10 games, the lowest amount from all Sabres starting D. 

He also leads the D in high danger scoring chances against. Don't be fooled by his draft pedigree or his smooth skating. He is hurting us more than anyone. 

[Drag0nDan]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Unpopular opinion forthcoming.

The only reason the Mitts trade is a failure is because KA misjudged Cozens.  

I believe the plan was set based on the assumption that Cozens would be as effective as Mitts, harder to play against than Mitts, and the team wanted a defense first 3rd line center anyway.

Had Cozens not started the season with a thud, we wouldn’t miss Mitts 5v5 with McLeod changing the role of the 3rd line.

Alas, Mr. Adam’s expectations for Cozens were a just a bit loftier than reality.

I like our defense roster.  I am less concerned about it than I am the forward group.

Interesting to think - make the same deal with cozens instead of mittelstadt.  Wonder how that would fit with players they have here right now.  

[msw2112]

6 hours ago, SwampD said:

I can, but I can’t believe that once again, the Sabres are the youngest team in league.

Others may disagree, but I think that Zucker, a veteran player with better-than-average talent, has made a positive impact on the team.  He is not the player he once was, but he has some gas left in the tank, he knows how to play in all situations, is generally in the right place at the right time, and pretty consistently makes the right play.  The Sabres could use a guy like that in the top-6 of the defense corps.  Maybe they tried to get that in Clifton, but he's not and never was at Zucker's talent level (relative to his peers).  Many here think that the Sabres overpaid for Zucker, but to bring good free agent players to a smaller market and struggling franchise like Buffalo costs a little more, and if you factor that in, it was a good signing.  So I guess what I'm saying is that the team could really benefit from a "Zucker-like" player on defense, and factoring in guys like that make the Sabres a little less young.

Pairing this with some of the comments above, how would the team look if they had retained Mittelstadt and signed a "Zucker-like" player on defense (based on experience and talent-level) who was a stay-at-home defensive RHD?  As I stated above in an earlier post, Byram has some good skating and puck moving skills, but they team already has that in Dahlin, Power, and to a lesser extent Jokiharju, so perhaps what they really needed was a physical stay-at-home defenseman AND because they team already has a bunch of young, developing players, perhaps what they really needed was a veteran and not another 22 year old.

Edited November 1 by msw2112

[#freejame]

Add a poll to this asking if you think he’s good or bad. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

He also leads the D in high danger scoring chances against. Don't be fooled by his draft pedigree or his smooth skating. He is hurting us more than anyone. 

And look who is right behind him; Owen Power no less.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

5 hours ago, msw2112 said:

Others may disagree, but I think that Zucker, a veteran player with better-than-average talent, has made a positive impact on the team.  He is not the player he once was, but he has some gas left in the tank, he knows how to play in all situations, is generally in the right place at the right time, and pretty consistently makes the right play.  The Sabres could use a guy like that in the top-6 of the defense corps.  Maybe they tried to get that in Clifton, but he's not and never was at Zucker's talent level (relative to his peers).  Many here think that the Sabres overpaid for Zucker, but to bring good free agent players to a smaller market and struggling franchise like Buffalo costs a little more, and if you factor that in, it was a good signing.  So I guess what I'm saying is that the team could really benefit from a "Zucker-like" player on defense, and factoring in guys like that make the Sabres a little less young.

Pairing this with some of the comments above, how would the team look if they had retained Mittelstadt and signed a "Zucker-like" player on defense (based on experience and talent-level) who was a stay-at-home defensive RHD?  As I stated above in an earlier post, Byram has some good skating and puck moving skills, but they team already has that in Dahlin, Power, and to a lesser extent Jokiharju, so perhaps what they really needed was a physical stay-at-home defenseman AND because they team already has a bunch of young, developing players, perhaps what they really needed was a veteran and not another 22 year old.

This team would be better right now if KA had found the D version of Zucker and not re-signed Joki.  

[JoeSchmoe]

54 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

And look who is right behind him; Owen Power no less.  

Power's been his partner so he's been dragged down. Power was good for this stat last year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Power's been his partner so he's been dragged down. Power was good for this stat last year.

He has been equally as bad this season.  Just watch the 1st and 3rd goals for the Panthers.

[SwampD]

He was bad tonight.

[sabremike]

14 hours ago, Weave said:

Unpopular opinion forthcoming.

The only reason the Mitts trade is a failure is because KA misjudged Cozens.  

I believe the plan was set based on the assumption that Cozens would be as effective as Mitts, harder to play against than Mitts, and the team wanted a defense first 3rd line center anyway.

Had Cozens not started the season with a thud, we wouldn’t miss Mitts 5v5 with McLeod changing the role of the 3rd line.

Alas, Mr. Adam’s expectations for Cozens were a just a bit loftier than reality.

I like our defense roster.  I am less concerned about it than I am the forward group.

I think it's a failure because Mitts is a very good player and Byram is anything but. In fact Byram statistically is right now among the worst players in the entire league at his position (which is why Colorado was over the moon to find a sucker like Adams to unload him on). We essentially gave away a valuable asset for useless junk.

[spndnchz]

12 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

He also leads the D in high danger scoring chances against. Don't be fooled by his draft pedigree or his smooth skating. He is hurting us more than anyone. 

Boom!

[thewookie1]

14 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How much better would this team be if KA had retained Mitts, still traded for McLeod, and then went out are traded for or signed a RHD stay at home D to play with either Power or Dahlin?  We'd be better defensively, better skills at forward, and deeper at center.  

We wouldn't for any number of reasons; Mitts would randomly revert to his younger self and like Utah, Marino and whomever else we got would get hurt long term leaving us with issues on the back end. 

95% of players who come here get worse and over 75% get better after leaving and its been that way since 2010 more or less. It even predates ownership in that regard. How can we have some of the most respected analytics guys yet rarely do we get any boost in play. And if Adams is ignoring them then I doubt they'd still be here because I highly doubt they are getting absurd salaries to get ignored. 

I have zero idea how you fix this team. Players won't come here without massive overpayment and 3/4th of our moved implode no matter how highly or lowly the move is seen. With how our luck is, McDavid would of had a career ending collarbone injury his rookie year. 

You trade Cozens.... he'll take off like he has in international tournaments and no matter who we get in return they'll either play like garbage  or play well and get hurt before death spiraling to sucking. That's effectively how it is.

I have never cared that we traded Mitts away because I never had much emotion tied to the player but its gotten very old how anyone we trade away gets better and/or stabilizes at the high level we dealt them at. Bo Byram has a ton of skill and potential as well as a Cup ring however he's been mediocre at best most nights yet I also just know that if we were to trade him he'd suddenly play like he did his 1st couple years just because. Hell I never even wanted the guy and turned down countless Mitts/Cozens trades for him from Colorado on CapFriendly because he wasn't the type of Dman we needed but apparently he was the only one feasible to acquire for unknown reasons.

I'm just tired at this point. I have to keep positive for sanities sake as I cannot help but keep up with this team as it has been with me since I was about 3. I just don't deep down know how we'll ever escape this state. A new owner would more than likely want to move the team for money reasons because its not as if our sales are exactly superb after 13 years of ineptitude. It's not as if we have multiple Buffalo based billionaires just laying in the weeds. Any new GM is either going to be another 1st timer in order to not challenge the owner or even if we got an experienced GM they'd likely be a dinosaur wanting to trade for Reaves and Matt Martin while trading Power for truculence and more physical BS. Then bury us with some 8 year 7mil contract for Tuch and sign some random 34 year old Dman who once played for him in his previous job.

[sabremike]

If a guy stinks playing on one of the powerhouse organizations and they are shopping the guy you would be very foolish to covet the guy. It should throw up more red flags than a Soviet Mayday parade. But this is the most incompetent organization in hockey history so it's no surprise we were the suckers the Avs were able to con and exploit.

[Jorcus]

I was fooling around with money puck and found it interesting that The relative expected goal percentage 5 on 5 was used to disparage Bowen Byram. If so are Casey Mittelstadt's numbers any better? not looking good at 5 on 5, I guess the guy that replaced him is in the same boat. This was sorted by all NHL forwards and they end up near the bottom of the pile. 

For what it's worth I can't see how this relative expected goal number is useful as there good players scattered all over the list. I think Casey is pretty much the same guy he was when he left, A mediocre player who is hooked up with 2 hall of famers helping his numbers. If he was still here I doubt the Sabres would be any different than they are right now given McLeod took is place and our guys don't resemble Makar and MacKinnon or Rantanen.

The Avalanche are in a world of hurt. The goaltending sucks, They have lots of injuries, no defensive depth, so the trio of supermen are having a hard time beating even the bad teams. The end of November schedule looks like a nightmare. 

I don't hate on Casey, He has a certain skill set but lacks on other areas. I like Byram's skills and see way more upside to his game. Most see his redundant skill as a problem but if you structure your team right waves of offensive D men can break other teams down. I am still hopeful this trade was a win.      

 

 

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, Jorcus said:

I was fooling around with money puck and found it interesting that The relative expected goal percentage 5 on 5 was used to disparage Bowen Byram. If so are Casey Mittelstadt's numbers any better? not looking good at 5 on 5, I guess the guy that replaced him is in the same boat. This was sorted by all NHL forwards and they end up near the bottom of the pile. 

For what it's worth I can't see how this relative expected goal number is useful as there good players scattered all over the list. I think Casey is pretty much the same guy he was when he left, A mediocre player who is hooked up with 2 hall of famers helping his numbers. If he was still here I doubt the Sabres would be any different than they are right now given McLeod took is place and our guys don't resemble Makar and MacKinnon or Rantanen.

The Avalanche are in a world of hurt. The goaltending sucks, They have lots of injuries, no defensive depth, so the trio of supermen are having a hard time beating even the bad teams. The end of November schedule looks like a nightmare. 

I don't hate on Casey, He has a certain skill set but lacks on other areas. I like Byram's skills and see way more upside to his game. Most see his redundant skill as a problem but if you structure your team right waves of offensive D men can break other teams down. I am still hopeful this trade was a win.      

 

 

It's true that Mittelstadt looks like a net negative on COL, and it's true it matters who your linemates are. There is some art between the math of it all to figure out the devil behind the details.

All that said, you can't do relative xG% between different teams. The off-ice expected goals varies from team to team. The whole purpose of that stat is to compare you to the rest of your team to see what kid of impact you have when you're on the ice vs when you're off the ice relative to your teammates... not the whole league.

Edit: In Mittelstadt's case, his xG% shows he's over 50 which is okay... But when he's off the ice, the team is even better. If he's not playing at the same time as MacKinnon and Makar, that would make sense. 

Edited November 4 by JoeSchmoe

[Jorcus]

7 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

It's true that Mittelstadt looks like a net negative on COL, and it's true it matters who your linemates are. There is some art between the math of it all to figure out the devil behind the details.

All that said, you can't do relative xG% between different teams. The off-ice expected goals varies from team to team. The whole purpose of that stat is to compare you to the rest of your team to see what kid of impact you have when you're on the ice vs when you're off the ice relative to your teammates... not the whole league.

Edit: In Mittelstadt's case, his xG% shows he's over 50 which is okay... But when he's off the ice, the team is even better. If he's not playing at the same time as MacKinnon and Makar, that would make sense. 

 

Thank you for your interpretation of this. 

[DarthEbriate]

The Avalanche are getting goaltending malpractice this season.

As of 11/4, COL has a team sv% of .834. If the Sabres (who give up more shots/game) had that level of goaltending they'd have 59 goals against right now instead of 42. The Sabres would have given up seventeen more goals -- through only twelve GP, with Colorado's goaltending.

Mittelstadt, Makar, and McKinnon's plus/minus will be fine (once injuries abate and COL probably trades for a goaltender).

 

Note: Many holes in COL's lineup (Drouin only 1 gp, Nichushkin suspended though he could return soon and their cap space will disappear, and now Colton and Wood. [Is it even worth mentioning still-captain Landeskog won't play again -- except in playoffs when his salary won't count]?).

[JoeSchmoe]

57 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

The Avalanche are getting goaltending malpractice this season.

As of 11/4, COL has a team sv% of .834. If the Sabres (who give up more shots/game) had that level of goaltending they'd have 59 goals against right now instead of 42. The Sabres would have given up seventeen more goals -- through only twelve GP, with Colorado's goaltending.

Mittelstadt, Makar, and McKinnon's plus/minus will be fine (once injuries abate and COL probably trades for a goaltender).

 

Note: Many holes in COL's lineup (Drouin only 1 gp, Nichushkin suspended though he could return soon and their cap space will disappear, and now Colton and Wood. [Is it even worth mentioning still-captain Landeskog won't play again -- except in playoffs when his salary won't count]?).

I'd almost feel sorry for COL if they hadn't won a cup in the last 3 years. 

[inkman]

Did Paul Hamilton compose the thread title?  Word salad of the highest order. 

[DarthEbriate]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

I'd almost feel sorry for COL if they hadn't won a cup in the last 3 years. 

Certainly, there's no pity for them. And the other teams in the Central are ecstatic.

The question becomes, how long is COL GM McFarland patient with Georgiev? They've already claimed G Kahkonen off waivers. They can still look for a trade but have to deal with Georgiev's salary. And how much patience do they allow for Nichushkin to help solidify the top 6 (he just got cleared to practice with the team, but can't play until at least mid-November) before they get desperate? Nichushkin's reinstatement would push them right up against the cap. Do they still trust him at all or do they look to trade him?

It'll be interesting to watch how they handle it.

[Night Train]

Muel is the worst player. He does next to nothing every night.