Bowen Byram- Really Bad... But Not The Worst Anymore

[JoeSchmoe]

Cozens and Quinn get all the attention, but Byram is the worst player on the team right now.

He has the LEAST % of defensive zone starts and has the 3rd MOST % offensive zone starts among D (5 on 5). Everything is aligned in his favour.

His relative expected goals is -15.2% (how good we are when he's on the ice vs when he's off the ice with 0% being team average). That's a fair bit worse than all of our much maligned 2nd line.

Worse yet, we gave up our top scorer last year to get him. We'd for sure be better off with Bryson, Johnson, or Clague (I'm not sure on Gilbert).

Edited November 6 by JoeSchmoe

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Byram is the worst player on the team right now.

.... and Power hasn't been much better.  

I said the Byram Power pair was a mistake in camp and I'm not surprised that it failed miserably.  

When Cozens, Power, Byram and Quinn are your worst players, your team is in trouble.  Power and Cozen are grossly overpaid at 15 mill.  Combine them with Byram and Quinn is a huge problem for this team as they are central players to Adams rebuild.  Quinn and Byram, two other high draft picks, are at least playing their way into cheaper contracts.  

To bad Casey only has 13 points (6 goals) in 10 games.  No way the Sabres could use a player like that.  

Edited October 30 by GASabresIUFAN

[inkman]

Beings an anchor is a good thing.  Provides stability and support.  

[Ruff Around The Edges]

The Byram for Mitts deal should get Adams fired. No questions asked.

[Weave]

9 minutes ago, inkman said:

Beings an anchor is a good thing.  Provides stability and support.  

I legit thought the OP was going to have a totally different tone. 🤷‍♂️

[GASabresIUFAN]

10 minutes ago, inkman said:

Beings an anchor is a good thing.  Provides stability and support.  

It can also keep a ship from moving forward.

[JoeSchmoe]

I edited the topic to eliminate confusion.

[mjd1001]

I never looked at the numbers this deeply, but from watching the games, my opinion was he is the 2nd or 3rd best guy on this team.

Ability in the offensive zone he seems tied for 2nd with Power.  He seems to me to be pretty reliable with defensive zone exits (pass or skating out).  yeah, I will admit he isn't a exactly a bear getting the puck out of corners or cleaning out the front of the net, but I've been decently satisfied with how he plays.

[Jorcus]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Cozens and Quinn get all the attention, but Byram is the worst player on the team right now.

He has the LEAST % of defensive zone starts and has the 3rd MOST % offensive zone starts among D (5 on 5). Everything is aligned in his favour.

His relative expected goals is -15.2% (how good we are when he's on the ice vs when he's off the ice with 0% being team average). That's a fair bit worse than all of our much maligned 2nd line.

Worse yet, we gave up our top scorer last year to get him. We'd for sure be better off with Bryson, Johnson, or Clague (I'm not sure on Gilbert).

 

When did you take this snapshot? I went over to money puck and see the following for Byram? 

 

On ice expected goals 48.5%

Off ice expected goals 51.3%

Relative expected goals -2.8%

 

This is third on the team behind Dahlin and Joki at the moment.

 

I can't say I have noticed terrible play out of Byram and like his speed getting pucks out of the zone. 

[SwampD]

The “#1” is a bit much and unnecessary,

 

 

… cuz he’s not.

[#freejame]

21 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

 

When did you take this snapshot? I went over to money puck and see the following for Byram? 

 

On ice expected goals 48.5%

Off ice expected goals 51.3%

Relative expected goals -2.8%

 

This is third on the team behind Dahlin and Joki at the moment.

 

I can't say I have noticed terrible play out of Byram and like his speed getting pucks out of the zone. 

This would also match my eye test much more. He’s been one of best defenseman every game

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

 

When did you take this snapshot? I went over to money puck and see the following for Byram? 

 

On ice expected goals 48.5%

Off ice expected goals 51.3%

Relative expected goals -2.8%

 

This is third on the team behind Dahlin and Joki at the moment.

 

I can't say I have noticed terrible play out of Byram and like his speed getting pucks out of the zone. 

You're comparing 5v5 to all situations. At 5v5 he's -15.2 but in all situations he's -2.8

[Jorcus]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You're comparing 5v5 to all situations. At 5v5 he's -15.2 but in all situations he's -2.8

Thanks for the clarification.

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, Jorcus said:

 

When did you take this snapshot? I went over to money puck and see the following for Byram? 

 

On ice expected goals 48.5%

Off ice expected goals 51.3%

Relative expected goals -2.8%

 

This is third on the team behind Dahlin and Joki at the moment.

 

I can't say I have noticed terrible play out of Byram and like his speed getting pucks out of the zone. 

You can't look at all situations because if one guy plays on the power play more (Byram) and another plays on the penalty kill more (Samuelson) then you're comparing apples to oranges.

Of course you're going to get more expected goals on the PP vs PK.

EDIT- just to elaborate some more, advanced stats almost exclusively look at 5 on 5 to take out this major difference. If keen GM were to say though, this guy kinda sucked 5 on 5 expected goal wise but is deadly on the PP, we might be able to mine this undervalued talent for less than market value. 

Edit 2- On the surface Malenstyn and Aube-Kubel were advanced stats nightmares. But it looks like Adams did his homework and found they had an unprecedented level of defensive assignment last year. Taking that into account, it seems he made a concerted effort to get both of them. Small sample size, but I've really liked A-K and Malenstyn has been okay too.

Edited October 29 by JoeSchmoe

[JoeSchmoe]

31 minutes ago, #freejame said:

This would also match my eye test much more. He’s been one of best defenseman every game

I'm not sure what you've been watching but his decision making and positioning is terrible.

I've said this before in other threads but Byram was also a negative expected goal player (not relative but absolute) on Colorado which is really hard to do on a team that good, unless you're ONLY getting the really tough matchups. Byram was not that guy.

[7+6=13]

Hey look, it's another bash a Sabres player thread.  

[JoeSchmoe]

17 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:

Hey look, it's another bash a Sabres player thread.  

You want it... You got it!

Acquiring him for Mittelstadt was Adams' worst, yet least scrutinized trade. Everyone just assumed he was a #3 D and there was almost nothing in his playing history to support it (just an uptick during CO's cup run and his 2019 4th OA pick).

[7+6=13]

17 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

You want it... You got it!

Acquiring him for Mittelstadt was Adams' worst, yet least scrutinized trade. Everyone just assumed he was a #3 D and there was almost nothing in his playing history to support it (just an uptick during CO's cup run and his 2019 4th OA pick).

What about Pegula?  Can we blame him?

[Pimlach]

6 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Cozens and Quinn get all the attention, but Byram is the worst player on the team right now.

He has the LEAST % of defensive zone starts and has the 3rd MOST % offensive zone starts among D (5 on 5). Everything is aligned in his favour.

His relative expected goals is -15.2% (how good we are when he's on the ice vs when he's off the ice with 0% being team average). That's a fair bit worse than all of our much maligned 2nd line.

Worse yet, we gave up our top scorer last year to get him. We'd for sure be better off with Bryson, Johnson, or Clague (I'm not sure on Gilbert).

I appreciate you pulling out the fancy stats.  I’m starting to get the hang of them.  

By watching the games I have not warmed up to Byram yet, mostly because I didn’t like the trade.  I can’t see that it improved the team at the time.  

He seems to be playing better now than your data indicates. But certainly nothing special for sure.  

Edited October 30 by Pimlach

[SABRES 0311]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

.... and Power hasn't been much better.  

I said the Byram Power pair was a mistake in camp and I'm not surprised that it failed miserably.  

When Cozens, Power, Byram and Quinn are your worst players, your team is in trouble.  Paying Power and Cozen 15 mill and Byram and Quinn is a huge problem for this team as they are central players to Adams rebuild.  Quinn and Byram, two other high draft picks, are at least playing their way into cheaper contracts.  

To bad Casey only has 13 points (6 goals) in 10 games.  No way the Sabres could use a player like that.  

Don’t disagree with your points. Not sure if Mitts would have the same production if he was still on this team. He’d be with failing Quinn and inexperienced Kulich/Benson. He’d definitely have more production than Cozens though.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

I appreciate you pulling out the fancy stats.  I’m starting to get the hang of them.  

By watching the games I have not warmed up to Byram yet, mostly because I didn’t like the trade.  It can’t see that it improved the team at the time.  

He seems to be playing better now than your data indicates. But certainly nothing special for sure.  

This is where I am with the exception with that I was open to the trade. I won’t rehash that part.
But I will say that the concept of a one overall, one overall, and fourth overall as your defensive backbone should be elite.  And the Sabres D is not elite.  This is where the Lindy effect will be real or not.  And like you said, Byram being special (or not) is huge part of that. 

[Pimlach]

Just now, Porous Five Hole said:

This is where I am with the exception with that I was open to the trade. I won’t rehash that part.
But I will say that the concept of a one overall, one overall, and fourth overall as your defensive backbone should be elite.  And the Sabres D is not elite.  This is where the Lindy effect will be real or not.  And like you said, Byram being special (or not) is huge part of that. 

But why base this on the Lindy effect?   He is just working with what he was given.  I could not see him building a defense the same way as Adams did either.  

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, 7+6=13 said:

What about Pegula?  Can we blame him?

I think he had a hand in us being this far under the cap. That was likely the driving force behind this trade- given Mitts was up for a raise.

So yes, blame Pegula for sure.

[Gatorman0519]

With all the ex Sabres out there you can nearly make an all star team. Too bad we are the farm team for everyone else. Dysfunction junction. 

[Porous Five Hole]

29 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

But why base this on the Lindy effect?   He is just working with what he was given.  I could not see him building a defense the same way as Adams did either.  

I’m just saying that three guys with a draft pedigree of these guys could use the coaching of Lindy v Meatballs.  Lindy was an edgy defensemen in his playing career who coached some good teams over the last 25 years.  With his pedigree, it’s incumbent on Lindy to get the best out of 1OA, 1OA, 4OA.  It is supposed to be the Sabres path forward given GMKA’s build of defense first.