Bowen Byram- After a tough start, continues to improve

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Every game that goes by Cozens is just a wealth of new conversation for this forum....

I'm 90% there to accepting who he is, and that is someone that isn't going to change much anymore.  He is not a good 2 way player, makes serious lapses in decision making in the neutral and defensive zone. He is someone I think would be better on wing but the Sabres are insistent he is a center. 

But he is also a skilled skater who is capable of generating his own shots in the offensive zone.  That is the key, and the frustrating part. Other than Tage, he is probably the BEST player on the team at getting to prime scoring areas and getting shots off from there.  He's not going to be a guy who shoots 20% like Draisaitl, Reinhart or Scheifle....hes not even going to be a 15% shooter like Petterson or Marner or Bo Horvat or even Tage.  He might have 12-14% in him one or two more years in his career, but he is, basically, an 8% shooter.

When you have an 8% shooter, you have some stretches of a couple months, or even seasons where you can do 12%+, but you also have stretches (months maybe) of 2-4%.

So, for $7m per year (which, as the cap goes up in the next few years, might not look so bad), can we accept this from Cozens without feeling the need to scapegoat him?

-Can we accept that he will have months where he scores 6 goals in a month or 10 goals in 20 game where everyone says "He's back!" but then he follows that up with no goals in 7 or 8 in a row?

-Can we accept that he may have a 25-30+ goal season in him again, but then, for no apparent reason, he follows that up with a full 82 game season where he is your 2nd line center (with Power play minutes) and scores only 10-15 goals and 45 points?

I am very close to thinking that is who he is.  That he is going to break out of his shooting slump soon and put in 4 or 5 goals in a month, but then disappear again shortly after.

Sorry for the length of this post but here is one example of the best case scenario. Patrice Bergeron. Now I'm not even remotely saying he can be as good as Bergeron...Bergeron was one of the best defensive forwards in modern history...but best case scenario could be his offensive game and how it COULD evolve.

-Bergeron's first year in the NHL he scored 16. He followed that up with 31 goals in a full season as a 21 year old. Then down to 22. Then he got hurt and only scored 3 in an shortened season, but came back the next (mostly) full year with only 8 goals, and followed that up with 19, 22, 22 and then 10 in a shortened season. So with a very early season of 31 goals as a 20 year old, Boston fans thought they had and up and coming offensive superstar. But it took him 8 FULL SEASONS until he hit 30 again.

Bergeron for his career only shot 10.7%. Like Cozens he was good at getting to the good scoring areas and took a lot of shots. He had full seasons only shooting 7% or 8% over the entire season, but as he got OLDER his shooting went up.

Cozens is likely never going to be even close to the shut-down specialist Bergeron was. But, he can still evolve his offensive game, and even lacking accuracy in his shot, hopefull that can improve. 

If you don't like that comparison, look at Drew Stafford. WILD swings in shooting percentage, wild swings in scoring, from season to season. He may just be like that.

It may take years. Not weeks, not months, but YEARS.

Why the constant hand wringing on Cozens?      I am guessing it is his salary and his slotting as a 2C,  and that is all 100% on Adams.  Cozens also possess an "A" which to me was a curious move since they had Tuch and Tage already and Cozens maturity level does not warrant an A.  

Right now Cozens is a 3C that is still learning his way.   He might end up a good middle 6 winger too.   His ceiling could be a 2C someday but he sure looks like a 3C given his shooting and play making abilities.  

There are plenty of first round players like him that get to develop slower and not carry so much weight on their shoulders.   Look at his draft class.  Hughes was 1OA and is the stand out player.

Cozens scoring output  is in the next tier of forwards with Boldy, Caulfied and Zegras -  Cozens has played more games than these guys.   Most young players don't get pushed as soon, as fast, or as hard as he has   Adams did him a disservice IMO, but Adams purposely built rosters with no veteran blockers (a scheme that was foolish and did not work).   

Cozens has been more productive than Kakko, Newhook and Dach so far, but he needs to pick up his scoring and be more consistent, like most of the young guys on this team.   

 

Edited November 8 by Pimlach

[mjd1001]

50 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

Why the constant hand wringing on Cozens?     

 

Because his lack of production is a major impact on the team.

The money yeah, but that isn't a big issue (yet). But the bigger issue is that he IS not just slotted on what many think is the 2nd line, but he is getting 2nd line minutes. He is getting top Powerplay minutes.

When you are trying to win badly, and you are giving him 18 minute of ice time per game (only about 1:20 less than your top center), and he has the MOST powerplay time on ice on the team as far as forwards...it is a cause for "hand wringing" simply because you are trying to win.

Now in the last 2 weeks I have convinced myself he is going to come out of this 'slump'. so I'll have more patience.  But this is more than a slump now.  Last game he dipped below 8% shooting (7.98%) when you consider this season and ALL last season.  He is leading your forward in PowerPlay time on ice, yet he has a total of 3 (THREE) powerplay goals combined so far this year and all of last year.

So yeah, I think he will 'come around' but the issue is, come around how far. There is no way he should be leading your forward in Power play time with that above record, and he is hurting you by taking up so much ice time without performing. I get he is young, but he is now in his 5th season and he is turning 24 in a couple months.  I think a lot of us want McLeod to get the extra 2.5 minutes of ice timer per game, and drop Cozens down to that '3rd line' ice time by getting 2.5 minutes less and take him off the first unit powerplay. He can still 'work out of it' with 3rd line ice time.  But right now, McLeod is producing more, he is more responsible without the puck, and even if you add in last years stats, he is scoring almost double the goals per 60 as Cozens.

So the hand wringing about Cozens is all of that, but with me personally, again, get him off the PP first unit, and drop him down to 3rd line minutes for the time being, until he gets out of his shooting slump, that will help the team on the ice.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, LTS said:

I can only speculate but I perhaps retaining Jokiharju was hedging his bet and creating competition?  it can all be his inability to be decisive as well. I don't know. I don't think the Byram trade was a great one.  Perhaps he thought Quinn was going to replace Mitts' impact on the lineup, but he's been terribly incorrect about that.

 

I basically agree. I think he definitely expected Quinn (and Cozens) to play like top 6 players. I'm sure Adams felt sure he had the makings of a good second line with them plus Zucker maybe and then later Benson. Maybe eventually they still can be, but it looks like they are far from that now.

I guess Jokiharju was brought back for that reason but the better move would have been to bring in a better D man or at least a more defensive oriented one to play with the puck movers. New Jersey made those moves instead and are getting the benefits of it. Gilbert was the right idea, but he's just not talented enough to really make a big difference. A better version of him was what was needed. 

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I basically agree. I think he definitely expected Quinn (and Cozens) to play like top 6 players. I'm sure Adams felt sure he had the makings of a good second line with them plus Zucker maybe and then later Benson. Maybe eventually they still can be, but it looks like they are far from that now.

I guess Jokiharju was brought back for that reason but the better move would have been to bring in a better D man or at least a more defensive oriented one to play with the puck movers. New Jersey made those moves instead and are getting the benefits of it. Gilbert was the right idea, but he's just not talented enough to really make a big difference. A better version of him was what was needed. 

If they can stay in it that long, approaching the trade deadline would be a good time to add someone like that.  I think the Sabres have a bit over $7m in cap space, while 14 teams have less than $2m....meaning the Sabres have a lot of room to fit someone in that another team wants to dump....plus the Sabres have every single one of their draft picks for the next 2 years, and extra 4ths and 7ths this year so they have the draft assets and cap space to pick up rentals.

[Flashsabre]

Bryam: 

GP: 14  G: 3 A: 6 Pts: 9  +/-: +6

Looks like a young top pairing Dman to me.

 

Edited November 8 by Flashsabre

[DarthEbriate]

13 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Bryam: 

GP: 14  G: 3 A: 6 Pts: 9  +/-: +6

Looks like a young top pairing Dman to me.

He’s finally starting to get his shots through to the net. He had one last night that was easily deflected, but he’s doing much better overall. 

I think about 5-6 games in he had 2 shots on goal on 10+ shot attempts. Now, in addition to the goals, there are rebound assists, etc. He’s shooting before the defensive forward can get in position. 

[Night Train]

he played 32 min 34 sec today...most in the league this year.  Had a good game.

 

How many minutes did Muel play ?  

[mjd1001]

5 minutes ago, Night Train said:

he played 32 min 34 sec today...most in the league this year.  Had a good game.

 

How many minutes did Muel play ?  

That is a lot of minutes. More than half the game.

Its either 1.) showcasing him for a trade (I don't think that is as much of a thing as it was in the past.)  2.) someone esle on the D-unit got injured.  Or 3.) the coaching staff REALLY liked how he was playing.

I'm guessing its #3.

[French Collection]

11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

That is a lot of minutes. More than half the game.

Its either 1.) showcasing him for a trade (I don't think that is as much of a thing as it was in the past.)  2.) someone esle on the D-unit got injured.  Or 3.) the coaching staff REALLY liked how he was playing.

I'm guessing its #3.

Gilbert being benched added some minutes.

[Jorcus]

12 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

That is a lot of minutes. More than half the game.

Its either 1.) showcasing him for a trade (I don't think that is as much of a thing as it was in the past.)  2.) someone esle on the D-unit got injured.  Or 3.) the coaching staff REALLY liked how he was playing.

I'm guessing its #3.

It seems like he was being used on the PK more than in the past.

[bob_sauve28]

 

[Pimlach]

Can we get rid of the worst player on the team title?  Or close the thread.  That theory is debunked.  

[Jorcus]

 The title was changed. I would like to see how he progressed from time to time.

[Pimlach]

8 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 The title was changed. I would like to see how he progressed from time to time.

The title is still ridiculous.  If this thread is for monitoring Braam’s stats and overall play then make that the name.  If it’s to riducule the player with the worst analytics then name it that.   

[Jorcus]

I have been one of Byram's supporters but am certainly willing to listen to opposing points of view. I would not be so presumptive to tell other people what to do with threads they started or ask them to shut it down. My list in this forum would be very long if I started doing that.

[JoeSchmoe]

12 hours ago, Jorcus said:

 The title was changed. I would like to see how he progressed from time to time.

Here are the latest stats. A couple of strong games by Cozens have improved his stats. Byram is still down there, but his numbers are improving a bit. 

As well as Byram's done offensively, he is still giving up the most high danger chances against defensively. Maybe he's young enough that he can learn to play better defense and his offensive upside will offset this. I'd still rather have Mitts and give Bryson a full time spot in the lineup.

[inkman]

2 hours ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Here are the latest stats. A couple of strong games by Cozens have improved his stats. Byram is still down there, but his numbers are improving a bit. 

As well as Byram's done offensively, he is still giving up the most high danger chances against defensively. Maybe he's young enough that he can learn to play better defense and his offensive upside will offset this. I'd still rather have Mitts and give Bryson a full time spot in the lineup.

Bryson being so high on the relative goals expected is bananas. 

[French Collection]

7 hours ago, inkman said:

Bryson being so high on the relative goals expected is bananas. 

I still don’t expect any goals for when he is out there.

My eye test does show him as more effective than two years ago.

[LGR4GM]

Jason Bryson is a top 6 defender.

[#freejame]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Jason Bryson is a top 6 defender.

Get that man a contract then!

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Jason Bryson is a top 6 defender.

I prefer keeping him at 7 and improving the top 6.  

Lets see if he maintains his level of play - he certainly has been playing faster and smarter, and even using his body more.   My concern is with late season and playoff style hockey and whether he can hold up.  The game gets physically harder as the season goes on.  

He has looked good so far.  

 

[shrader]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Jason Bryson is a top 6 defender.

I was really hoping that I would find a Jason Bryson on hockeydb. Oh well. 

[LTS]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Jason Bryson is a top 6 defender.

*****. You mean we drafted the wrong brother... again?

 

[JoeSchmoe]

I'd still rather have Mitts, but you can't deny he's gotten better. 

We've all seen what he can do on offence, and he's starting to bring his high danger chances against numbers down.

More on him (and others) in the advanced stats thread later today.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Bowen is definitely improving game to game which is nice to see. I think the addition by subtraction of Joki and Muel helps this defense a ton as well!! Need one more physical defensive defenseman and we are set.