Defense

[seer775]

Our goalies are getting lit up. Through 8 games:

Team 9th last in GA.

UPL - 3.01 GAA 0.903 SV%

Levi - 5.74 GAA 0.874 SV%

We are not going to make the playoffs if our net is being filled like it has been. We are giving away too many high quality scoring chances and not clearing our zone.

Dead weight:

- Joker, Samuelsson, and Clifton.

They need to be replaced if we're thinking playoffs.

Edited Sunday at 01:52 PM by seer775

[Idemo Buffalo]

We have won 3 in a row and gave up a total of 7 goals in those three games.  One of those games was just 2 goals against the Stars.  Try enjoying a win once in a while.

[seer775]

1 minute ago, Idemo Buffalo said:

We have won 3 in a row and gave up a total of 7 goals in those three games.  One of those games was just 2 goals against the Stars.  Try enjoying a win once in a while.

That doesn't change that we get scored on more than most teams. That's how you lose.

[Idemo Buffalo]

Just now, seer775 said:

That doesn't change that we get scored on more than most teams. That's how you lose.

It is a new system and is clearly improving.  We could be in 1st place in the Atlantic in November. I'll take it.

[mjd1001]

Bascially the defacto bottom 3 defensemen are the ones you listed.

First, they aren't dead weight, I think for the most part, they have played pretty well for a 'bottom 3'.

Secondly, who are you going to get to replace them that will be better?

[seer775]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

Bascially the defacto bottom 3 defensemen are the ones you listed.

First, they aren't dead weight, I think for the most part, they have played pretty well for a 'bottom 3'.

Secondly, who are you going to get to replace them that will be better?

There are targets. We have moveable pieces. There are surely better hockey players than those listed. 

The risk of not adding peices is that we're going to have a repeat of when we missed by a point. And keep in mind, we had all our top scorers at all-time highs that season. We're not trending that way right now and it would be foolishness to bet on that outcome.

[mjd1001]

Just now, seer775 said:

There are targets. We have moveable pieces. There are surely better hockey players than those listed. 

The risk of not adding peices is that we're going to have a repeat of when we missed by a point. And keep in mind, we had all our top scorers at all-time highs that season. We're not trending that way right now and it would be foolishness to bet on that outcome.

yeah, I just disagree. Those guys in the bottom 3, I think you are doing pretty well having them there.

[seer775]

3 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Bascially the defacto bottom 3 defensemen are the ones you listed.

First, they aren't dead weight, I think for the most part, they have played pretty well for a 'bottom 3'.

Secondly, who are you going to get to replace them that will be better?

If they were playing well, our goalies wouldn't be getting lit up.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, seer775 said:

If they were playing well, our goalies wouldn't be getting lit up.

Which defenders are on the ice for the goals against? Dahlin today was on for 2 I can think of. Not Clifton or Samuelsson 

[seer775]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

Which defenders are on the ice for the goals against? Dahlin today was on for 2 I can think of. Not Clifton or Samuelsson 

Dahlin is playing 24 mins per game. We know for sure that that is 1) too much, 2) he is better than both of them.

If we had higher quality bottom pairing Dmen, we'd get more out of Dahlin. And think, he wouldn't be on the ice for minuses if Lindy trusted his other Defensemen.

[SDS]

14 minutes ago, seer775 said:

That doesn't change that we get scored on more than most teams. That's how you lose.

You must be fun at parties.

[seer775]

Just now, SDS said:

You must be fun at parties.

I'd prefer if my team won. But then again, Pegula.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, seer775 said:

Dahlin is playing 24 mins per game. We know for sure that that is 1) too much, 2) he is better than both of them.

If we had higher quality bottom pairing Dmen, we'd get more out of Dahlin. And think, he wouldn't be on the ice for minuses if Lindy trusted his other Defensemen.

All #1 defenders in the NHL play about 24+ Minutes a night. 

You're reaching here impo. The guys you're mad at weren't on the ice for a goal against today and Samuelsson has actually started to be useful again. 

[SDS]

3 minutes ago, seer775 said:

I'd prefer if my team won. But then again, Pegula.

🤦‍♂️

[DarthEbriate]

The Sabres team save percentage is 17th in the league at .885. Right smack in the middle.

Does it need to be better? Sure. Is it caving their season thus far? Not at all.

[seer775]

18 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

All #1 defenders in the NHL play about 24+ Minutes a night. 

You're reaching here impo. The guys you're mad at weren't on the ice for a goal against today and Samuelsson has actually started to be useful again. 

Logic:

- An elite Dman playing above optimal time-on-ice per game will result in less performance.

- Underperforming Dmen that play for less time-on-ice results in a lower likelihood that they will be on for a minus, but also less of a chance they are helping the team, and someone else is eating those minutes to the detriment of the team.

Assumptions:

- Dahlin is a top 10 defenseman in the league.

- Joker, Samuelsson, and Clifton are subpar.

Proof:

Points:

Power 6, Byram 3, Joker 3, Clifton 2, Dahlin 2, Mule 1.

xGoals:

Power 1.04 (19th out of 235 Dmen), Dahlin 0.88 (33rd), Byram 0.62 (58th), Clifton 0.4(85th), Joker 0.3 (116th), Mule 0.22 (142th)

Relative expected Goals %:

Dahlin 14.1 (21st/235), Joker 2.2 (75th), Byram -0.9 (98th), Mule -1.1 (101st), Power -10 (159th), Clifton -10.8 (167th).

On-ice expected goals against per 60 minutes:

Joker 2.53 (59th), Byram 2.7 (71st), Dahlin 3.15 (122nd), Mule 3.45 (161st), Clifton 3.74 (184th), Power 4.12 (206th).

18 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

The Sabres team save percentage is 17th in the league at .885. Right smack in the middle.

Does it need to be better? Sure. Is it caving their season thus far? Not at all.

Time will tell.

Edited Sunday at 02:38 PM by seer775

[mjd1001]

11 minutes ago, seer775 said:

Logic:

- An elite Dman playing above optimal time-on-ice per game equals less performance.

- Underperforming Dmen playing less time-on-ice equals a lesser likelihood that they will be on for a minus.

Assumptions:

- Dahlin is a top 10 defenseman in the league.

- Samuelsson and Clifton are subpar.

Proof:

xGoals:

Power 1.04, Dahlin 0.88, Byram 0.62, Clifton 0.39, Joker 0.3, Mule 0.22.

Time will tell.

Yeah, I'm done with this thread....the above post is textbook someone looking for an argument. 

[seer775]

Just now, mjd1001 said:

Yeah, I'm done with this thread....the above post is textbook someone looking for an argument. 

I know numbers hurt you guys but you don't need to make it too obvious.

[DarthEbriate]

7 minutes ago, seer775 said:

Time will tell.

Exactly. It's still the early season noise. There are teams with +.93 save percentages still (WPG, MIN, DAL) because of hot goalie starts. Alex Lyon's numbers are dropping after 4 goals today. On the Sabres, Levi's games are .919, .920, and the flub in Columbus of .760.

As we get into November, the goalie numbers will all start to move toward the middle. In the last few seasons, you get team goaltending above .900 and your playoff chances are very good. (.901 or higher:   10/12 teams in playoffs last season, 12/14 in playoffs two years back, 14/20 three years ago). Goalscoring is up.

[seer775]

7 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Exactly. It's still the early season noise. There are teams with +.93 save percentages still (WPG, MIN, DAL) because of hot goalie starts. Alex Lyon's numbers are dropping after 4 goals today. On the Sabres, Levi's games are .919, .920, and the flub in Columbus of .760.

As we get into November, the goalie numbers will all start to move toward the middle. In the last few seasons, you get team goaltending above .900 and your playoff chances are very good. (.901 or higher:   10/12 teams in playoffs last season, 12/14 in playoffs two years back, 14/20 three years ago). Goalscoring is up.

Lets hope our scorers will continue to produce and our goalies will stand on their heads.

Edited Saturday at 08:55 PM by seer775

[EM88]

11 minutes ago, seer775 said:

I know numbers hurt you guys but you don't need to make it too obvious.

What is your solution to getting rid of the 3 guys you listed? It is easy to pick some guys off of the middle of the roster and say they can do better. But what is your proposal?

It is not a matter of saying they can do better. That is a lazy argument.   How can they do better, for what cost monetarily, and what cost in terms of assets?  

Because honestly, any fan on any team can say they need better from the bottom of the roster. Again, that is a lazy argument.  It can be done anywhere.

[seer775]

1 minute ago, EM88 said:

What is your solution to getting rid of the 3 guys you listed? It is easy to pick some guys off of the middle of the roster and say they can do better. But what is your proposal?

It is not a matter of saying they can do better. That is a lazy argument.   How can they do better, for what cost monetarily, and what cost in terms of assets?  

Because honestly, any fan on any team can say they need better from the bottom of the roster. Again, that is a lazy argument.  It can be done anywhere.

Its a question of what will Adams do. I'm not the GM, but to witness this performance and expect that the team will magically make 16th is not sound.

[mjd1001]

7 minutes ago, seer775 said:

Its a question of what will Adams do. I'm not the GM, but to witness this performance and expect that the team will magically make 16th is not sound.

Okay this is where your posts are getting laughable. Like was said above... You're making a criticism and say something needs to happen and then you're saying it's not my job.. 

But if someone disagrees with you, you're throwing your argument back at them. 

It's a message board. I get it. We can say whatever we want, but come on... Dig a little bit deeper if you're going to come at people with garbage like that. 

Take a stand. If you want to start a thread and say there's a problem... And people ask you what your solution... Don't hide behind the GM. You're the one who started the thread... So let's hear the plausible solution.

[shrader]

6 games for UPL, 3 for Levi. It’s way too early. One game can completely skew the numbers, like say, giving up 6 goals your last time out there. 

[LGR4GM]

40 minutes ago, seer775 said:

Logic:

- An elite Dman playing above optimal time-on-ice per game will result in less performance.

- Underperforming Dmen that play for less time-on-ice results in a lower likelihood that they will be on for a minus, but also less of a chance they are helping the team, and someone else is eating those minutes to the detriment of the team.

Assumptions:

- Dahlin is a top 10 defenseman in the league.

- Samuelsson and Clifton are subpar.

Proof:

xGoals:

Power 1.04 (19th out of 235 Dmen), Dahlin 0.88 (33rd), Byram 0.62 (58th), Clifton 0.4(85th), Joker 0.3 (116th), Mule 0.22 (142th)

From the numbers its Joker and especially Mule that are underperforming. Joker hurts more because he is paired with our elite Dman and taking more minutes. Bottom line: they are underperformers.

Time will tell.

I'm not gonna lie, your numbers prove my point. There are 100 nhl defenders worse than our worst.