The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Here is something else with Quinn..

In the previous 2 seasons, even when coming directly off his injury, Quinn took 54 shots considered 'high danger" (between the circles, 10 feet or less in front of the net) in 102 games.  Not a ton, but more than 1 every other game.  This year through 7 games, he has not had one shot on goal from that area. Not one. For his career he shoots over 23% from that spot.

For his career before this year, he takes 1.81 total shots per game (from all areas). As a scorer/shooter, you'd like him to take more, but he averaged 1.81. This year, he is averaging 0.86.

So yeah, Cozens isn't converting, but he is getting chances and taking Shots. The issue with Quinn, so far, is much deeper than it is with Cozens.

 

You data translates into what i see. 

Quinn needs to shoot more.  Kulich is firing the puck like crazy and he is helping his line.   

Quinn is either passing up chances or thinking to long.  His role is to score goals,  he can also create -  but that should be secondary to him.  

[Idemo Buffalo]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I personally think Cozens starts scoring. 

Cozens will figure it out.  As the team starts winning routinely, his game will improve. I bet we get a huge 2nd half of the season from Cozens.  

[Wyldnwoody44]

Cozens needs to go to Crosby's ol childhood house and shoot pucks into the dryer, or whatever Sid did for monhson end, until his accuracy was wayyyyyy better. 

I find it hard to believe that a 2C in the NHL doesn't have some ability to improve his shot, maybe he needs some different drills, but at this point it should be addressed at every single practice. 

[PerreaultForever]

4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Here is something else with Quinn..

In the previous 2 seasons, even when coming directly off his injury, Quinn took 54 shots considered 'high danger" (between the circles, 10 feet or less in front of the net) in 102 games.  Not a ton, but more than 1 every other game.  This year through 7 games, he has not had one shot on goal from that area. Not one. For his career he shoots over 23% from that spot.

For his career before this year, he takes 1.81 total shots per game (from all areas). As a scorer/shooter, you'd like him to take more, but he averaged 1.81. This year, he is averaging 0.86.

So yeah, Cozens isn't converting, but he is getting chances and taking Shots. The issue with Quinn, so far, is much deeper than it is with Cozens.

 

This isn't the only thing, but one of the bigger things with Quinn is he isn't fighting through traffic. It's like he wants open ice but if he doesn't get it (which generally you don't in the NHL) he just becomes a passive non entity. He's there, but he's not doing anything. 

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Cozens needs to go to Crosby's ol childhood house and shoot pucks into the dryer, or whatever Sid did for monhson end, until his accuracy was wayyyyyy better. 

I find it hard to believe that a 2C in the NHL doesn't have some ability to improve his shot, maybe he needs some different drills, but at this point it should be addressed at every single practice. 

In golf there are swing coaches. Even the best golfers have their swings analyzed by coaches or computers and try to tweak things.  We know when QB's break into the league, they have coaches giving them even the most subtle advice about small changes to their throwing motion.

Does that happen in the NHL?  If Cozens is so hot and cold with his shooting, do they have any way of analyzing his shots, in game or practice, and seeing something, ANYTHING that is so subtle but might make a change he can work on?

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, Idemo Buffalo said:

Cozens will figure it out.  As the team starts winning routinely, his game will improve. I bet we get a huge 2nd half of the season from Cozens.  

I am starting to lean toward him staring to score, and when he does it will come in bunches.  Now, I don't mean he's going to put up back to back hat tricks, but I think we'll get a to a point where he has a multi-goal game, or at least score in 2 out of 4 games in a stretch.

I mean, EVERYTHING else is there. He is taking the shots, good shots, getting the ice time. It has to turn into something positive eventually.

[SabreFinn]

10 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

In golf there are swing coaches. Even the best golfers have their swings analyzed by coaches or computers and try to tweak things.  We know when QB's break into the league, they have coaches giving them even the most subtle advice about small changes to their throwing motion.

Does that happen in the NHL?  If Cozens is so hot and cold with his shooting, do they have any way of analyzing his shots, in game or practice, and seeing something, ANYTHING that is so subtle but might make a change he can work on?

This is something I have been wondering about also, so thanks for bringing it up.

[Phil Goyette]

My feeling is that Cozens is a little small for the NHL. Not in height, but in bulk.

I had hoped he would hit the weights over the spring and summer, and come to camp a little beefier, hence stronger.

In fact there are a handful of guys on the team that way, IMO.

[Idemo Buffalo]

11 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

In golf there are swing coaches. Even the best golfers have their swings analyzed by coaches or computers and try to tweak things.  We know when QB's break into the league, they have coaches giving them even the most subtle advice about small changes to their throwing motion.

Does that happen in the NHL?  If Cozens is so hot and cold with his shooting, do they have any way of analyzing his shots, in game or practice, and seeing something, ANYTHING that is so subtle but might make a change he can work on?

I think that is what Justin White does. When guys get in a slump or have issues I think watching video and chatting with the team's psychologist Amanda Edwards are usually part of the process.  I know a lot of people think the Sabres are a joke because they have missed the playoffs for 13 years and the arena was falling apart, but the facilities and locker rooms for the players are some of the best in the NHL.  They have the best of everything.  

 

[LGR4GM]

 

[Brawndo]

Others have mentioned this, McLeod moving to the 2C and Cozens moving to wing for a couple games might be worth a try. 
 

I would go with 

Peterka-Tage-Tuch

Benson/Kulich-McLeod-Cozens

Zucker-Krebs-Greenway

NAK-Lafferty-Malenstyn 

Sit Quinn for awhile, if Cozens doesn’t improve he sits 

[mjd1001]

I wanted to take a look around the league and look at guys who are goal scorers (average 20+ or more goals per season over the long term) and see if any of them have wildly fluctuating shooting percentages year to year, and month to month, like Cozens does.

Most of the top guys, not really. They have some up and down years, but for the most part, they are fairly consistent. A good year vs a bad year is just a couple points apart through most of their career. I did find a few that are wildly eratic year to year with shooting percentage.....

McKinnon:  yeah, hes good, but he's not a high percentage shooter, he is more of a volume shooter. Early in his career he routinely shot below 10%, his 4th year in the league he shot 6.4% for the year (16 goals on over 250 shots). Since then he has been a bit more consistent late in his career, but still he is usually between 9.5 and 13%. He scores on volume of shots.

Max Pacioretty:  5 time 30+ goal scorer. He went from 9.2% one year, up to 14.4% the next.  Then in another 4 year stretch, he shot 9.9%, then up to  13.1%, then the next year down to  8.0%, then back up to 11.5...all in the prime of his career.

Joe Pavelski. former 40 goal scorer, 12 years of over 25 goals. But year to year, no consistency. In his prime, he has had FULL YEARS where he shot 7.1% and 9.8%, and then other years where he was at 20.2%, 17% and 18.2%.

Claude Girioux:  in his prime, he had a 3 year stretch of full seasons where he shot 9.1, 9.0, and 7.1%. He followed up that stretch with a full season where he shot 17.6%

Patrice Bergeron: I never thought of him as a bit time scorer, but he had 14 20+ goals seasons, including 12 in a row, and 6 30+ goal seasons. Well in terms of his shooting accuracy...He had a 4 years stretch where he shot 13.4, 15.6, 15.3, and 12.6%. In his prime he also had seasons as low as 7.0, 9.8, 8.0, and even 5.2%

So again, usually scorers are consistent, within a few points of shooting percentage, year to year and do not have wild fluctuations. But as the above numbers show you, some really good players often go into shooting slumps for seasons, even multiple seasons in a row before coming out of it.

Cozens just may be THAT kind of player. A player we have to judge his offensive production not in terms of games, weeks, or months, but years instead. If Cozens is that type of player, we may see entire seasons where he struggles to get 15 goals, only to be followed up by the next season over 30.  As fans, it will likely drive many of us crazy.

 

Edited October 24 by mjd1001

[LabattBlue]

8 hours ago, Idemo Buffalo said:

… but the facilities and locker rooms for the players are some of the best in the NHL.  They have the best of everything.  

 

Maybe that is part of the problem…a little too comfy?

[Idemo Buffalo]

1 minute ago, LabattBlue said:

Maybe that is part of the problem…a little too comfy?

Probably was more about "soft" coaching than the facilities.  Vegas and Florida have some of the best facilities in the NHL 

[mjd1001]

Cozens also routinely goes through streaks like this.

-Toward the end of last Season, Cozens had a streak where he had only 1 goal on 43 shots over 18 games.

-He had another 22 game streak mid-season where he had just 2 goals on 60 shots in those 22 games.

-In his 31 goal year, toward the beginning of the year,  he went scoreless for 10 games in a row over with over 20 shots.

-in the end of the 21-22 seaons, he went 11 games in a row without scoring with 29 shots

-In the last 29 games of that season, he had ONE goal in 29 games through 59 shots.

 

My point again, that IS who Cozens is. He goes through incredibly hot and incredibly cold streaks.  If he DIDN'T do that, that would be a sign of something very different.  They key to evaluating his offensive game is...."Is he getting the same number of shots as usual" and "is he getting the same number of quality shots"  The answer to both of those questions is not only Yes...but he is getting MORE.

So, his offensive game overall is as good as ever with one exception (accuracy). We just have to 'wait' for him to get out of a shooting slump...a shooting slump that happens no differently than any other season in his career.

 

Edited October 25 by mjd1001

[PerreaultForever]

I firmly believe that Cozens does not have good on ice vision. He tends to only see one side of the ice and thus is not well suited to be a center. He would be better on the wing. As a center he tends to only look to one side and in this case it's generally towards Quinn who is playing incredibly soft and won't go through traffic so there's nothing there.

If you won't move Cozens to the wing, get him a more physical winger. 

[oddoublee]

58 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I firmly believe that Cozens does not have good on ice vision. He tends to only see one side of the ice and thus is not well suited to be a center. He would be better on the wing. As a center he tends to only look to one side and in this case it's generally towards Quinn who is playing incredibly soft and won't go through traffic so there's nothing there.

If you won't move Cozens to the wing, get him a more physical winger. 

so what we have is a center who has low shot volume, low shooting percentage, low assist totals and low faceoff percentage wins. he is not a second or third line winger, why?

we don't have to like our front office and/or coaching staff - but we know based on where they are at - they are not necessarily dumb people and understand hockey. this round peg in a square hole routine is odd. they have to be overly enamored with his season that was a major over performance from a shooting standpoint. 

I wish i could find his whl shooting stats...he scored...but a first round pick in the nhl should score in the whl...

[steveoath]

I’d like to see Cozens on the wing with Tage and Peterka. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Cozens also routinely goes through streaks like this.

-Toward the end of last Season, Cozens had a streak where he had only 1 goal on 43 shots over 18 games.

-He had another 22 game streak mid-season where he had just 2 goals on 60 shots in those 22 games.

-In his 31 goal year, toward the beginning of the year,  he went scoreless for 10 games in a row over with over 20 shots.

-in the end of the 21-22 seaons, he went 11 games in a row without scoring with 29 shots

-In the last 29 games of that season, he had ONE goal in 29 games through 59 shots.

 

My point again, that IS who Cozens is. He goes through incredibly hot and incredibly cold streaks.  If he DIDN'T do that, that would be a sign of something very different.  They key to evaluating his offensive game is...."Is he getting the same number of shots as usual" and "is he getting the same number of quality shots"  The answer to both of those questions is not only Yes...but he is getting MORE.

So, his offensive game overall is as good as ever with one exception (accuracy). We just have to 'wait' for him to get out of a shooting slump...a shooting slump that happens no differently than any other season in his career.

 

So you are saying he is Drew Stafford.

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

So you are saying he is Drew Stafford.

In many ways their numbers are remarkably similar, in terms of how 'streaky' they are, and in terms of both with the Sabres having similar shot totals but their shooting percentages varying wildly from one year to another...I guess yeah.

That might be a very good comparison, at least in terms of what we have been, and can, expect in terms of goal production.

[PerreaultForever]

59 minutes ago, oddoublee said:

so what we have is a center who has low shot volume, low shooting percentage, low assist totals and low faceoff percentage wins. he is not a second or third line winger, why?

we don't have to like our front office and/or coaching staff - but we know based on where they are at - they are not necessarily dumb people and understand hockey. this round peg in a square hole routine is odd. they have to be overly enamored with his season that was a major over performance from a shooting standpoint. 

I wish i could find his whl shooting stats...he scored...but a first round pick in the nhl should score in the whl...

Stubbornness ? Or just too much patience? Either way Adams perhaps insisting that since he paid him to be the 2C he will be the 2C. 

[Taro T]

On 10/23/2024 at 10:55 PM, mjd1001 said:

I am starting to lean toward him staring to score, and when he does it will come in bunches.  Now, I don't mean he's going to put up back to back hat tricks, but I think we'll get a to a point where he has a multi-goal game, or at least score in 2 out of 4 games in a stretch.

I mean, EVERYTHING else is there. He is taking the shots, good shots, getting the ice time. It has to turn into something positive eventually.

Again, personally believe that he goes through (long) stretches where he has 0 confidence in his shot.  He needs to get 2 goals, via any means whatsoever, and then he'll believe again.  He gets into position for too many HD chances for him to NOT be able to be at least a 10-12% shooter; IF he has any faith at all that he can score.

And, not to sound too much like a broken record, still expect the most effective way to get him there is to put Peterka on his wing.  (Sliding Benson up to the top line.)  Would try that 1st, and then if even that isn't helping him AND Quinn; then go to the idea @Brawndo floated after Aube-Kubel is healthy and put the original 4th line together with Krebs sliding into McLeod's spot and McLeod sliding up into Cozens and Cozens taking Quinn out of the lineup for a few.

Edited October 25 by Taro T

[Pimlach]

On 10/24/2024 at 9:21 AM, Phil Goyette said:

My feeling is that Cozens is a little small for the NHL. Not in height, but in bulk.

I had hoped he would hit the weights over the spring and summer, and come to camp a little beefier, hence stronger.

In fact there are a handful of guys on the team that way, IMO.

I agree that Cozens shows no apparent size/strength changes from last year to this year.  He has a frame that can get stronger.  It will take work. 

How about for next off season - less time in Yukon, less time in Europe, more time training with NHL players and coaches, more time in WNY.  

[Jorcus]

Saturdays game seemed to be a step back for Cozens. When a guy is in a slump like he is you have to limit some of his responsibilities. You have either take him off the power play or the the PK. I don't like him in that bumper spot. I am not even sure how I feel about playing a bumper on the PP in general. In the past he often played the 2nd D man spot. I don't like him their either. So it's pretty much off the PP for now. If he were back on get back over to the wing down low or behind the net where he can fight for possession. I think less could equal more with him right now. 

[Archie Lee]

On 10/25/2024 at 4:34 PM, Pimlach said:

I agree that Cozens shows no apparent size/strength changes from last year to this year.  He has a frame that can get stronger.  It will take work. 

How about for next off season - less time in Yukon, less time in Europe, more time training with NHL players and coaches, more time in WNY.  

How much time did he spend in the Yukon this past offseason?  In Europe?  Training?