The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[Ctaeth]

1 hour ago, oddoublee said:

I am all for the argument of where he belongs in the lineup - he is a 3rd line player - and that is ok. the 7 million dollar contract is what skews this. the team needed and still needs to find a 1 or 2 line Center. as the team stands now - we have one first/second tweener line, 2 third lines and 1 fourth line. 

Cirelli, someone who seems like the prototypical 3c, just got a contract that is paying 6.25m aav over a pretty long period.  Maybe 7 isn't so bad for a 3c with 2c upside.  Or maybe I'm just trying to justify what was an awful contract to begin with.

All of that is assuming that he is even a center....and not a wing.

Ps:  In my head, I've been calling this problem the cozenundrum because of this thread

Edited October 23 by Ctaeth

[Jorcus]

2 hours ago, Mango said:

This is one of my bigger frustrations with both Cozens and Adams.

We’ve consistently cleared the path for Cozens whether it’s giving him preferable linemates in order to “get him going” or trading players better than him (Mitts).

Similar to Adams presenting the naming of the captains speech, it seems so strange that it’s also referred to as “promoting players too soon”. He’s the GM he shouldn’t be promoting anybody. 

Adams traits as a GM is so odd. I don’t think Pegula meddles with Adams because I think they are both on the same page. Can’t meddle if everybody agrees. This org needs both of them to stay in their respective lanes. 

The legend of Mitts. I remember him going through a scoring streak so bad he stopped even trying to shoot the puck. In 21-22 he shot 7.6 % for 40 games In the next year he got to a respectable 11.1 % but he did not start playing well until the second half of the year. I think a lot of the improvement had to do with the Granato coaching. Granato let him focus on the things he did well. He got good at gaining and maintaining puck possession. He limited his passes to no one and bad giveaways and then the assist started to come. Finally he has gained some scoring touch. In a sense you are right they cleared a path for Cozens and there is a chance it won't work out. I would still say Cozens has more upside and in general will put more pucks in the net than Casey will.   

[Mango]

Just now, Jorcus said:

The legend of Mitts. I remember him going through a scoring streak so bad he stopped even trying to shoot the puck. In 21-22 he shot 7.6 % for 40 games In the next year he got to a respectable 11.1 % but he did not start playing well until the second half of the year. I think a lot of the improvement had to do with the Granato coaching. Granato let him focus on the things he did well. He got good at gaining and maintaining puck possession. He limited his passes to no one and bad giveaways and then the assist started to come. Finally he has gained some scoring touch. In a sense you are right they cleared a path for Cozens and there is a chance it won't work out. I would still say Cozens has more upside and in general will put more pucks in the net than Casey will.   

 

2021-22 are useless points in this conversation in 23-24 Cozens was consistently given preferential treatment with linemates even though there were better centers on the roster. And when the bill came due the GM traded Cozens biggest competition. 

So back to my point, it is super weird for the fanbase to be so open about the GM promoting/demoting players up and down the roster in the same way that it is super weird for that GM of the team to lead the announcement of team captains. Neither of these things should be up to a GM...but here we are....

[SABRES 0311]

He’s a third line center who can play second line minutes if needed. Just because you bought a Toyota Corolla for a million dollars doesn’t make it a Porsche. It doesn’t mean you could or should drive it like a Porsche either.

There’s the answer to the big mystery. Dylan Cozens is not/will not be what everyone wants him to be. Doesn’t mean he sucks at hockey or that he can’t play for the Sabres. Find a real 2C and either put Cozens on that wing or move him to 3C.

[Archie Lee]

I have no issue with switching the 2nd/3rd line designations of the Cozens and McLeod lines. Calling Cozens the 3rd line centre doesn't exactly solve the "conundrum" though. We could always try something we haven't tried before and give him a couple of veteran wingers to work with for an extended period.  Failing that, we should probably just be patient with Cozens and his linemates. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I have no issue with switching the 2nd/3rd line designations of the Cozens and McLeod lines. Calling Cozens the 3rd line centre doesn't exactly solve the "conundrum" though. We could always try something we haven't tried before and give him a couple of veteran wingers to work with for an extended period.  Failing that, we should probably just be patient with Cozens and his linemates. 

What veteran wingers would you give him and how do they help him?

21 minutes ago, Jorcus said:

The legend of Mitts. I remember him going through a scoring streak so bad he stopped even trying to shoot the puck. In 21-22 he shot 7.6 % for 40 games In the next year he got to a respectable 11.1 % but he did not start playing well until the second half of the year. I think a lot of the improvement had to do with the Granato coaching. Granato let him focus on the things he did well. He got good at gaining and maintaining puck possession. He limited his passes to no one and bad giveaways and then the assist started to come. Finally he has gained some scoring touch. In a sense you are right they cleared a path for Cozens and there is a chance it won't work out. I would still say Cozens has more upside and in general will put more pucks in the net than Casey will.   

There is almost no point at all in using the Krueger years for anything. They are complete outlier sack of trash because Barg Krueger was a sack of trash at coaching. 

[Jorcus]

13 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

What veteran wingers would you give him and how do they help him?

There is almost no point at all in using the Krueger years for anything. They are complete outlier sack of trash because Barg Krueger was a sack of trash at coaching. 

That may be true but I remember Casey being about as jinxed at scoring as Cozens is now. Missing a lot of open nets and not putting breakaways in. It was a big slump plain and simple and not just coaching. My point is if Casey can work his way out of it Cozens can too.

[EM88]

There was a post earlier today showing that Cozens goes on really long streaks of great offensive production only to be followed by exceptional long streaks of subpar production.

I think that is what he is.

Some are saying he is the 30 goal scorer of 2 years ago. Others are saying he is the guy who can't put anything in.  I think both of those arguments are both correct and incorrect at the same time.

He isn't worth $7m per year. That was a mistake contract.  There may be months he may play that well. He might have another year or 2 of over 30 goals. Just as sure as that is to happen, so will streaks like he currently is on.

Cozens is a 20 goal per season guy that will have long lengths of time of considerably higher and much much lower levels of scoring.  Barring injury I expect him to break out of his scoring slump somewhat soon. Only to likely go back into one for weeks or months at a time later in the year.

[Archie Lee]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

What veteran wingers would you give him and how do they help him?

I'm not suggesting we change existing lines as they're going well.  A change in the short-term might not be realistic.  If we don't send Kulich down we will have 3 young wingers who are not currently producing much offensively who will nonetheless need playing time. It will do no good to have any of the 3 not playing for extended periods. 

My point is really that Cozens deserves some slack here.  Are you saying you are certain he would be no better playing with Peterka/Tuch or Greenway/Zucker?  How good would Thompson or McLeod be playing with 2 of Benson/Kulich/Quinn (not one of them, two of them)?  Better than Cozens?  Maybe.  As good as they have been with their current linemates?  Not a chance.

Unfortunately, the best opportunity to make a trade was in the summer and that time has now past.  

There are options though.  I think Benson fits in well with Thompson and Tuch.  I hate to take Peterka from that line, but perhaps he could rekindle something with Quinn/Cozens.  Quinn is supposed to be an effective two way player who plays the game "the right way".  Perhaps if he was placed with McLeod and either Zucker or Greenway or with Krebs and either Malenstyn or Lafferty, he would benefit from having some pressure to produce removed from his game and he would do well for now in a  more straight ahead defensive focused role.  This could allow for a Peterka/Cozens/Zucker line, as an example.  With Aube-Kubel coming back, Krebs could play with Cozens.

Alternatively, we keep rolling Cozens out with youngsters (maybe even sit Cozens here and there for Krebs) and hope they get it together.

 

[oddoublee]

 

2 hours ago, Ctaeth said:

Cirelli, someone who seems like the prototypical 3c, just got a contract that is paying 6.25m aav over a pretty long period.  Maybe 7 isn't so bad for a 3c with 2c upside.  Or maybe I'm just trying to justify what was an awful contract to begin with.

All of that is assuming that he is even a center....and not a wing.

Ps:  In my head, I've been calling this problem the cozenundrum because of this thread

i like everything you posted. and i have the same thoughts as you regarding whether he is a w or c. he had fluky statistical season...and we paid to soon for it though.  

[mjd1001]

10 minutes ago, EM88 said:

He isn't worth $7m per year. That was a mistake contract.  There may be months he may play that well. He might have another year or 2 of over 30 goals. Just as sure as that is to happen, so will streaks like he currently is on.

Cozens is a 20 goal per season guy that will have long lengths of time of considerably higher and much much lower levels of scoring.  Barring injury I expect him to break out of his scoring slump somewhat soon. Only to likely go back into one for weeks or months at a time later in the year.

I am rapidly coming around to this point....and I think I'm feeling slightly better about Cozens because of it.

I see no flaws in his offensive game except putting the actual puck in the net...he is skating, going to the tough areas....doing everything positive he has done before. So..its not some crazy thing missing in his game. its shooting.  For the last week or so....I have been just upset at how bad he is shooting.

I think I, we, may just have to accept that he is going to go on runs when the team 'needs' him, where he will not score a goal for a couple weeks. Then there will be times he scores 3-5 a month (or more). 

Many of us are spending a lot of time trying to figure out what is wrong with his game? what is different? What is the shooting percentage we can expect from him.  Here is what I am coming to think now:  Nothing is wrong with his game (that can be fixed). Nothing is different..hes playing the same way he did last year and the year before.  What shooting percentage can we expect from him?  10% is a good OVERALL number, but he might have another SEASON at 15%, and a season at 8%, a Month at 18%, and the next at 2%  THAT is who Cozens is.

I don't think who his wingers are change his production. I think his production is close to 100% him, and that is going to be wildly fluctuating month to month.  I think HE might be able to help out certain wingers (if he stays at center) but no winger on this team will change how well or poorly he shoots. 

Personally, I think that is who he is. When I accept him as a 30 goal scorer some years, a 15 goal scorer others...I accept some month he will take 40 shots and score on none of them, others he will score 4 goals on 25 shots...I'll be much more accepting of his play and it won't bother me as much watching him game to game. 

Edited October 23 by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

 

Alternatively, we keep rolling Cozens out with youngsters (maybe even sit Cozens here and there for Krebs) and hope they get it together.

 

I think that is it actually. It'll work eventually, but it will be at a seemingly random moment.

[PerreaultForever]

26 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I'm not suggesting we change existing lines as they're going well.  A change in the short-term might not be realistic.  If we don't send Kulich down we will have 3 young wingers who are not currently producing much offensively who will nonetheless need playing time. It will do no good to have any of the 3 not playing for extended periods. 

My point is really that Cozens deserves some slack here.  Are you saying you are certain he would be no better playing with Peterka/Tuch or Greenway/Zucker?  How good would Thompson or McLeod be playing with 2 of Benson/Kulich/Quinn (not one of them, two of them)?  Better than Cozens?  Maybe.  As good as they have been with their current linemates?  Not a chance.

Unfortunately, the best opportunity to make a trade was in the summer and that time has now past.  

There are options though.  I think Benson fits in well with Thompson and Tuch.  I hate to take Peterka from that line, but perhaps he could rekindle something with Quinn/Cozens.  Quinn is supposed to be an effective two way player who plays the game "the right way".  Perhaps if he was placed with McLeod and either Zucker or Greenway or with Krebs and either Malenstyn or Lafferty, he would benefit from having some pressure to produce removed from his game and he would do well for now in a  more straight ahead defensive focused role.  This could allow for a Peterka/Cozens/Zucker line, as an example.  With Aube-Kubel coming back, Krebs could play with Cozens.

Alternatively, we keep rolling Cozens out with youngsters (maybe even sit Cozens here and there for Krebs) and hope they get it together.

 

I really think we have to try Cozens on the wing and see how that goes. Having him try to carry 2 young guys isn't working.

Perhaps,

Peterka-Thompson-Tuch

Zucker-McLeod-Cozens

Greenway-Krebs-Quinn

Malenstyn-Lafferty-Kubel (when he returns)

Benson and Kulich sub as needed but ideally Adams uses that cap money and gets a veteran winger added.

To me, Quinn is as much of a problem as Cozens, probably more. He's a weakness currently and we'd be better off with a physical winger in his spot. 

[#freejame]

I want to see Krebs-McLeod-Cozens.

McLeods transition ability will take a lot off of Cozens. McLeod has also been creating a good deal of second chance opportunities which will be easier for Dylan to convert off of. Dylan is also creating a lot of second chance opportunities, so putting Krebs (or another pesty player willing to play the front of the net and crash hard) will create some havoc in front and lead to more chances.  Getting Cozens on his off wing will also get his stick closer to the net and allow him to convert on those second chance opportunities/have better shooting angles.

I don’t need him passing, shoot the puck and let the chaos take care of the rest.

[mjd1001]

9 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

To me, Quinn is as much of a problem as Cozens, probably more. He's a weakness currently and we'd be better off with a physical winger in his spot. 

Here is something else with Quinn..

In the previous 2 seasons, even when coming directly off his injury, Quinn took 54 shots considered 'high danger" (between the circles, 10 feet or less in front of the net) in 102 games.  Not a ton, but more than 1 every other game.  This year through 7 games, he has not had one shot on goal from that area. Not one. For his career he shoots over 23% from that spot.

For his career before this year, he takes 1.81 total shots per game (from all areas). As a scorer/shooter, you'd like him to take more, but he averaged 1.81. This year, he is averaging 0.86.

So yeah, Cozens isn't converting, but he is getting chances and taking Shots. The issue with Quinn, so far, is much deeper than it is with Cozens.

 

[EM88]

2 minutes ago, #freejame said:

I want to see Krebs-McLeod-Cozens.

McLeods transition ability will take a lot off of Cozens. McLeod has also been creating a good deal of second chance opportunities which will be easier for Dylan to convert off of. Dylan is also creating a lot of second chance opportunities, so putting Krebs (or another pesty player willing to play the front of the net and crash hard) will create some havoc in front and lead to more chances.  Getting Cozens on his off wing will also get his stick closer to the net and allow him to convert on those second chance opportunities/have better shooting angles.

I don’t need him passing, shoot the puck and let the chaos take care of the rest.

Interesting to think of.

Who is your other Center? If this is your 2nd line, who plays C on the 3rd line?

[HumanSlinky39]

Dylan doesn't need to be a yearly 30 goal/60 point guy to live up to that contract. If he can play a solid 2-way game, chip in 20-25 goals and 45-55 points, that will be fine. The way contracts are ballooning, the market for $7M will be quite a bit different in a year or two vs. what it was when he signed in 2023. Granted, he's not anywhere near the pace above currently, but we've seen the ability. It's there. He's just a mess mentally right now and Lindy needs to set him back on the right track. I honestly think a couple of games watching from the press box could really benefit him.

Edited October 23 by HumanSlinky39

[Cascade Youth]

Yeah I think it’s just wait @LGR4GM said upthread - he’s just not a good shooter.  Has poor hands.  Precision isn’t his game, he’s a chaos engine.  Maybe ultimately he flips spots with McLeod and becomes a legendary 4th line center.  That seems to be where his game is.

On 10/17/2024 at 6:00 PM, triumph_communes said:

If we had an average PP

Speak for yourself!

[EM88]

14 minutes ago, HumanSlinky39 said:

Dylan doesn't need to be a yearly 30 goal/60 point guy to live up to that contract. If he can play a solid 2-way game, chip in 20-25 goals and 45-55 points, that will be fine. The way contracts are ballooning, the market for $7M will be quite a bit different in a year or two vs. what it was when he signed in 2023. Granted, he's not anywhere near the pace above currently, but we've seen the ability. It's there. He's just a mess mentally right now and Lindy needs to set him back on the right track. I honestly think a couple of games watching from the press box could really benefit him.

Playing a solid 2-way game is a problem for him.  Every 2 or 3 games he seems to play a game with a really bad giveaway or he is just not where he should be.  To be a good and reliable 2-way player he must cut out those mistakes considerably

[Doohicksie]

3 hours ago, Ctaeth said:

Cirelli, someone who seems like the prototypical 3c, just got a contract that is paying 6.25m aav over a pretty long period.  Maybe 7 isn't so bad for a 3c with 2c upside.  Or maybe I'm just trying to justify what was an awful contract to begin with.

On every team there are contracts that are overpays and contracts that are underpays.  I tend to not worry about that too much.

[Flashsabre]

Cozens doesn’t have the hockey IQ to be a high end #2 centre. When he has to handle the puck and make decisions it doesn’t go well. Let him go up and down the wing and use his speed to create chances off the rush.

I would try letting Krebs or McLeod centre him for a while and see the results.

I think Helenius slots into the number 2 centre spot long term but that is a couple years away.

[Carmel Corn]

I might be crazy, but I think Cozens needs different types of linemates.  I think his aggression would come back if he had more rugged type players with him.  Guys who play hard and aggressive will bring this out of him.  Dylan has been mostly timid since last season and hasn't returned to form since then.

[EM88]

2 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

I might be crazy, but I think Cozens needs different types of linemates.  I think his aggression would come back if he had more rugged type players with him.  Guys who play hard and aggressive will bring this out of him.  Dylan has been mostly timid since last season and hasn't returned to form since then.

I thought that also. Some other posters made some points that got me thinking linemates might not be the answer. Apparently he is taking more shots than ever and as a poster earlier point out those shots are coming from the same areas.  In short he is playing the same game he did when he scored 31 goals 2 seasons ago. The only difference is his rate of converting those chances.

The NHL edge does a good job of showing where the shots he takes are coming from. Same prime spots.  When we watch games we even see they aren't rushed chances.  I do not think linemates of different skill or type fix Cozens. He is already getting better looks than anyone on the team. He simply needs to be more accurate in when letting shots fly.

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, EM88 said:

I do not think linemates of different skill or type fix Cozens. He is already getting better looks than anyone on the team. He simply needs to be more accurate in when letting shots fly.

Bingo!

Look at Cozens this year vs his 30+ goal season from 2 years ago.....

Shots: 2.6 per game played 2 years ago.    3.4 shots per game played this year. More total attempts this year

High Danger shots: 0.84 per game played 2 years ago.  1.13 per game played this year.

Even his zone time, 41.3 vs 43.9 in the offensive zone in favor of this year vs his big year 2 seasons ago.

He's getting more shots, he's getting better shots, hes in the offensive zone with puck possession more. No external factor like teammates, D-pairings, etc is likely to help him much as those numbers are all really good already.

He needs to shoot better. Thats it.  And per my post earlier with how 'streaky' he is, its likely to happen at SOME time....everyone just has to wait for it.

Edited October 23 by mjd1001

[LGR4GM]

I personally think Cozens starts scoring.