The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[triumph_communes]

If we had an average PP right now everyone would be overjoyed with our progress

 

Cozens ain’t right since that fight gave him a concussion. No idea if he ever recovers. Sometimes concussions just screw you royally 

[mjd1001]

7 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with the comparison where you put Risto in the same class as Cozens from a player and contract standpoint. Cozens is somewhat struggling and not producing offensive stats. But the effort and willingness to go to the dirty/tough areas is apparent. My suspicion is that he might be better suited as a winger. In the International Tournaments he has thrived on the wing against high end competition. That's one of my arguments why the Mitts trade was a bad deal for us. I thought putting Cozens on Quinn on the wings with Mitts centering made a lot of sense. 

I strongly recommend being a little more patient with him and even Quinn. The player that has perplexed me is Dahlin. He's simply not the same player that he was under Granato. Right now, it seems as if he is resorting back to the Krueger era being tied to a system instead of allowing his copious talent to take over. Maybe it is too much thinking and not enough free flowing???

The above bolded is exactly what Risto did too. He just went to those areas at the wrong times.  Like the forearm Cozens threw last night. He's willing to do that, but by doing so he took himself out of the play.

And as far as international tournaments, as stated above (or in another thread), in those tournaments the opposing teams (and his team) is slapped together, the guys don't really practice close to as much in the NHL, and there is significantly less scouting and system installs.  Its not "pond hockey" but it is closer to it the the NHL, and you don't get punished as much for playing a 'looser' style of hockey. Cozens thrives off of that 'loose' style. His one good year so far was the ONLY year where his coach openly said "go after it, score goals, we'll worry about defense later".

Again, Cozens could score 2 goals tonight and that puts him back on pace for 25+ for the year. Offense comes in bunches with a lot of players, I get that.  My biggest problem with him is just how bad he is away from the puck. I'm not an NHL coach, but in watching thousands of hockey games over my life, I have not seen a professional forward make as many mistakes, as many bad decisions without the puck as him.  I'm being serious there. I can't. And that concerns me because he is doing it a lot this year. He did it as a rookie, he did it last year, he has done it his entire career and I see very little sign of even a slight positive evolution in his game.

I want him to be better. I want him to start scoring obviously. I don't have a 'vendetta' against him because I want him to fail so my posts about him can be proven correct. If he ends up scoring 25-30 goals this year I'll be more than happy to have someone look up my negative posts about him and call me out. But I don't see it. I see a guy who is closing on 300 NHL games, going to be 24 years old soon and in his 5th year, with a LOT of prime ice time, and I don't know how much of a chance he has to get better than what he is now.

2 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

If we had an average PP right now everyone would be overjoyed with our progress

 

Cozens ain’t right since that fight gave him a concussion. No idea if he ever recovers. Sometimes concussions just screw you royally 

The thing is, EVERY part of his game is the same as it was before the fight. He is getting the same number of shots (actually more). He is getting shots from the same part of the ice overall. Close to the same number of quality scoring chances.  Its just he's not scoring anymore.  His shooting percentage, on basically the same quality of shots, is less than half now after the fight than it was in the full season before. 

If it was lingering impacts from the fight, I can't square the circle of how it appears to have impacted no other part of his game other than his ability to put the puck in the net, his accuracy.

[Archie Lee]

17 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Not sure I've ever had this view of him and truthfully don't recall ppl saying that about him either. 

Also and this isn't directed at you specifically, there's a lot of blame being shifted off Cozens on to Quinn and Benson. Benson, has actually played fairly well, Cozens converted nothing Benson created. Quinn has been bad but putting Zucker there won't help impo. 

Speaking only for myself, the blame lies with an organization that thinks/thought the 3 of them together as a line (the 2nd line, no less) was a good idea. If they stay together they will have better games to be sure, just like Cozens, Peterka and Quinn from 2 years ago; but also just like that line from two years ago, there will be bad stretches where they will not be good enough for a coach to rely upon them in tough moments. 

Adams made his own bed here though*.  By promoting players too soon and putting them in situations where they have struggled to be successful, he has simultaneously put a losing product on the ice and depreciated the trade-value of some of these young assets who should already have been moved to make the team better

*For clarity, I also think Adams has his hands tied by Pegula’s EEE and is not in a position to spend what is ultimately needed. 

Edited October 18 by Archie Lee

[Mr. Allen]

Apologies if it’s been brought up already, but didn’t he look really good playing in the tourney in the offseason?  Where’s that guy?

[JoeSchmoe]

Cozens was a +2 last night.

[inkman]

CTE or something off the ice could be an issue for Dylan.  He’s been bad since getting the beating of a lifetime.  If it didn’t scramble his brain, maybe he sought out things to settle his anxiety from the fight.  He looks like he’s playing with an altered conscience.  

[mjd1001]

3 hours ago, Mr. Allen said:

Apologies if it’s been brought up already, but didn’t he look really good playing in the tourney in the offseason?  Where’s that guy?

I posted this earlier in the thread...I can't see to link it here so I'll just copy and paste....

Just a theory here..

Cozens plays "pond hockey" He chases the puck. He's not good when you tell him to be someplace and to stay there.  He wants to play like a bunch of teenagers who have never played together.  That is who he is.  Hard on the puck, but all-gas-no-brakes, even when the situation may call for brakes.

That style doesn't go well in the NHL. When you are playing teams that are well coached, that have players that have practiced and played together for years, they can take advantage of Cozens playing that way.

Now think of the World Championships when he plays for Canada.  He may be playing against 'lesser' competition (not as many NHL stars on some teams). But even bigger than that, those teams are thrown together. They get a fraction of the time to practice together compared to what he sees in the NHL. The systems the coaches give them i'm sure are a lot 'looser'.

You can succeed in the World because it is much, much less discipline hockey, simply because the players don't know each other as well and don't get to practice together. Cozens can thrive in that environment. But when he's playing NHL players who are getting paid top dollar to play a very tight and discipline NHL game....Cozens doesn't play against that too well.

I'm sure other NHL teams have advanced scouts watching the Sabres, they see his tendencies, how he is one of the most undiscipline forwards on the team. They take advantage of that and I'm sure they probably have some set plays to work against him.  In the Worlds, I don't think that happens, again, not enough time.

[Idemo Buffalo]

Cozens got his first point last night and was +2.  Perhaps we should give the 23 year old a few games before running him out of town.

Dylan Cozens will be fine once the team gets rolling.

[Night Train]

He's an enigma. Hard to figure. 1 good year 2 years back but 3 years back and last year he seemed void of confidence. Scored the last 2 weeks of last season once eliminated and played well in the Worlds after. Is he a major headcase ? Seems that way. Hoping he wakes up and finds some line mates he can gell with . 

 

[mjd1001]

On 10/18/2024 at 3:10 PM, Idemo Buffalo said:

Cozens got his first point last night and was +2.  Perhaps we should give the 23 year old a few games before running him out of town.

Dylan Cozens will be fine once the team gets rolling.

Its never about his plus minus or assists for me with Cozens. It is about 2 things...how well he shoots/converts his chances, and his positioning (lack of it) when he doesn't have the puck.  90% of the problem I have with his game is those 2 things.

1.)  He still hasn't scored.  I personally need to see him shoot 10% or higher (minimum) to justify his expectations/salary

2.) I didn't notice any awful plays away from the puck last night, but one game where I don't see something....lets just say I need to see 5 or 6 games in a row before I even THINK he is getting those habits out of his system.

23 years old? Yeah, he COULD get better, but he's in his 5th season. He is approaching 300 games.  The defensive liability/bad decisions, you would think if he has the ability to learn/change you would see SIGNS of it now. And honestly, I am seeing him do just as many per game this year as any other year of his career.

I think many of us, maybe we don't put it into words that much but those are the only 2 parts of his game we need to see change.  It would be great if he could shoot 14% like he did a couple years ago, but bare minimum, 10%, AND don't be out of position so much and make bad decisions. Thats it. Its not happening.

I'm not asking for him to turn into a superstar. Just play somewhat smarter than he is without the puck (don't chase the puck and be out of position) and shoot 10% for the year.  Thats it. for a $7m that shouldn't be too much to ask.

Edited October 19 by mjd1001

[Doohicksie]

 

[Archie Lee]

On 10/18/2024 at 2:10 PM, mjd1001 said:

Its never about his plus minus or assists for me with Cozens. It is about 2 things...how well he shoots/converts his chances, and his positioning (lack of it) when he doesn't have the puck.  90% of the problem I have with his game is those 2 things.

1.)  He still hasn't scored.  I personally need to see him shoot 10% or higher (minimum) to justify his expectations/salary

2.) I didn't notice any awful plays away from the puck last night, but one game where I don't see something....lets just say I need to see 5 or 6 games in a row before I even THINK he is getting those habits out of his system.

23 years old? Yeah, he COULD get better, but he's in his 5th season. He is approaching 300 games.  The defensive liability/bad decisions, you would think if he has the ability to learn/change you would see SIGNS of it now. And honestly, I am seeing him do just as many per game this year as any other year of his career.

I think many of us, maybe we don't put it into words that much but those are the only 2 parts of his game we need to see change.  It would be great if he could shoot 14% like he did a couple years ago, but bare minimum, 10%, AND don't be out of position so much and make bad decisions. Thats it. Its not happening.

I'm not asking for him to turn into a superstar. Just play somewhat smarter than he is without the puck (don't chase the puck and be out of position) and shoot 10% for the year.  Thats it. for a $7m that shouldn't be too much to ask.

Cozens needs better line-mates also. 

Will be interesting to see what happens when Aube-Kubel is back. Kulich, Quinn, and Benson can’t all play. If we are icing the best line-up, probably two can’t play. I assume Kulich goes back to Rochester. 

Would like to see Krebs with Cozens. Krebs can help with D-zone face-offs and maybe they develop some chemistry. 

[mjd1001]

33 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Cozens needs better line-mates also. 

Will be interesting to see what happens when Aube-Kubel is back. Kulich, Quinn, and Benson can’t all play. If we are icing the best line-up, probably two can’t play. I assume Kulich goes back to Rochester. 

Would like to see Krebs with Cozens. Krebs can help with D-zone face-offs and maybe they develop some chemistry. 

I'm not going to totally disagree with you, but I'll disagree with the above a bit.

I can't see how different linemates will solve his scoring issues.  He IS getting a ton of shots (most on the team). If you look at where he is getting shots from, they are from prime scoring areas. He is getting them from the slot often and he has time. He's just missing.

Maybe his overall game (more assists) would improve with different linemates, but his shooting/scoring?  He has the most shots on the team and arguably the BEST scoring chances on the team (if not the best, close to the best).  Other linemates aren't going to make that even better, at least not by much. 

His accuracy shooting was always a bit of an issue with him, but it has just vanished. Totally.

[LGR4GM]

Cozens isn't a good shooter, that's the simple answer. Until that improves, I don't think his linemates matter much and I think it is a scapegoat to blame them for all his shooting woes. 

[mjd1001]

47 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cozens isn't a good shooter, that's the simple answer. Until that improves, I don't think his linemates matter much and I think it is a scapegoat to blame them for all his shooting woes. 

A saying is that a lot of goal scorers are 'streaky'.  Maybe he just is even 'streakier' than most.  It doesn't make sense to me in a logical way why that would be true, but hopefully its something like that:

-The first part of the 21-22 season,  (Oct - Jan) he had 11 goals on 76 shots (14.5% shooting over almost 4 months)

-The last 2nd half of 21-22 , (Feb, Mar, and April of 2022) he had 2 goals on 84 shots (2.4% shooting over 3 months)

-The entire season of 22-23, he shot 14.7% (Entire season)

-October of last season, 23-24, he had 3 goals on 19 shots (15.7% shooting over the first month of the season)

-In November and December of last year he had 3 goals on 76 shots (3.9% shooting over 2 months)

-The remainder of last year he shot 19% in January, 7.3% in Feb-Mar, 18.8% in April.

-This year so far he is shooting 0% (no goals on 27 shots) in October.

Again, scorers are streaky, but when you look at the above numbers, COZENS is really REALLY streaky.  When you look at someone like Tage for example, he never really had even a 2 months period under 10%. 

With Cozens for his entire career, the shots and quality of shots are somewhat consistent but his accuracy is way, WAY streaky.

Hopefully he starts scoring, but maybe Cozens is just a player that is 'about' a 20 goal scorer on average, but there will be some years he only gets 10, some years he gets 30. Some months he will put in 6 or 7 in a month, other months he will have nothing.  Just way more extreme ups and downs than most other players.

I have been saying on here a lot recently...just get Cozens to 10% shooting and stay there for the season. It very well might be that he just isn't that type of player, He might have high peaks and low valleys of shooting. We can only hope if/when this team makes the playoffs, his 'shooting' is at a peak, not a valley at that moment.

 

 

Edited October 23 by mjd1001

[Pimlach]

On 10/18/2024 at 11:20 AM, inkman said:

CTE or something off the ice could be an issue for Dylan.  He’s been bad since getting the beating of a lifetime.  If it didn’t scramble his brain, maybe he sought out things to settle his anxiety from the fight.  He looks like he’s playing with an altered conscience.  

He was playing poorly before that fight.  The fight is not the problem.   His decision making is the problem.  His decision to pick that fight is a prime example of a poor decision.  

I think the biggest problem for Cozens is the Buffalo Sabres and their recent way of doing things.    They rushed him and the expectations are just too high too fast for him.  

A rookie GM and a rookie coach tossed him out there with two other rookies,  and the coach said stop thinking, just attack on offense.  He had a great offensive year, but no real NHL coach is ever going to let him play like that again.   The Sabres then signed him to an albatross of a contract and now he puts even more pressure on himself.  He is consistently being asked to do more than he can maintain.   It didn’t take Ruff long to reduce his TOI, which is smart.  

Give him 3rd line minutes and simplify things for him and he will get more confident and better.  He also still needs to get physically stronger but most of his problem right now is confidence and workload. 

I’m afraid that Quinn has hit a similar wall.  He looks lost, is overthinking and overpassing, and he just not the same player in Ruff’s NHL system.  

The Sabres tossed several very young players into prominent roles, without proper coaching and veteran support, and they played an undisciplined system under Granato.   They learned wrong.  Some of them have a case of PTSD from it.  
 

This can be fixed over time by giving them more realistic roles on the team.  
 

The Dallas game actually looked like NHL hockey is returning to Buffalo.  

Edited October 23 by Pimlach

[Archie Lee]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Cozens isn't a good shooter, that's the simple answer. Until that improves, I don't think his linemates matter much and I think it is a scapegoat to blame them for all his shooting woes. 

It’s not denigrating Quinn, Benson and Kulich to say that Cozens would benefit from better linemates. Every player benefits from better linemates.  Three wingers on our team who would benefit from better linemates, including a better centre?  Quinn, Benson and Kulich.

I’m not crapping on Cozens’s linemates. They are in the same situation he is. They are collectively not ready to be a 2nd line on an NHL team with playoff aspirations. 

It is self-evident that Cozens would have a better opportunity to be consistently successful playing on a stable line with two seasoned and talented veteran players.  Name another 23 year old centre on an NHL team with playoff aspirations, who has been assigned 2nd line expectations and who has been given a rotation of 3 wingers, averaged age 20, to play with? 

On 10/18/2024 at 10:20 AM, inkman said:

CTE or something off the ice could be an issue for Dylan.  He’s been bad since getting the beating of a lifetime.  If it didn’t scramble his brain, maybe he sought out things to settle his anxiety from the fight.  He looks like he’s playing with an altered conscience.  

Forgive me, I’m sure your intentions are not bad, but this post is grotesque. 

[Archie Lee]

6 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

 

 

This can be fixed over time by giving them more realistic roles on the team.  
 

 

Yes. 1000 x yes. Except, there are not enough roster spots and roles to give all of our young players these realistic opportunities for success. 

The team we played yesterday is the model. Stankoven stays in junior two years after his draft, then a 1/2 year in the AHL, then a promotion to the NHL, now playing with Hintz and Robertson and thriving. We promote our young players sooner and ask them to thrive and develop while playing with other players equally young and inexperienced (in Cozens case we have consistently asked him to develop and thrive while playing with players younger and less experienced than he). 
 

 

[Mango]

On 10/18/2024 at 8:32 AM, Archie Lee said:

Speaking only for myself, the blame lies with an organization that thinks/thought the 3 of them together as a line (the 2nd line, no less) was a good idea. If they stay together they will have better games to be sure, just like Cozens, Peterka and Quinn from 2 years ago; but also just like that line from two years ago, there will be bad stretches where they will not be good enough for a coach to rely upon them in tough moments. 

Adams made his own bed here though*.  By promoting players too soon and putting them in situations where they have struggled to be successful, he has simultaneously put a losing product on the ice and depreciated the trade-value of some of these young assets who should already have been moved to make the team better

*For clarity, I also think Adams has his hands tied by Pegula’s EEE and is not in a position to spend what is ultimately needed. 

This is one of my bigger frustrations with both Cozens and Adams.

We’ve consistently cleared the path for Cozens whether it’s giving him preferable linemates in order to “get him going” or trading players better than him (Mitts).

Similar to Adams presenting the naming of the captains speech, it seems so strange that it’s also referred to as “promoting players too soon”. He’s the GM he shouldn’t be promoting anybody. 

Adams traits as a GM is so odd. I don’t think Pegula meddles with Adams because I think they are both on the same page. Can’t meddle if everybody agrees. This org needs both of them to stay in their respective lanes. 

[EM88]

I see above a lot of posters reference the fight he got in last year.  His production drop seems to be close to that date. But when I watch him play I don't see him playing any worse in any way other than scoring.  The Cozens I see is the same Cozens I have watched in the past except he is shooting poorly

[LGR4GM]

I personally don't think the Cozens line is the 2nd line anymore but I know having that convo here is a losing battle. 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

A saying is that a lot of goal scorers are 'streaky'.  Maybe he just is even 'streakier' than most.  It doesn't make sense to me in a logical way why that would be true, but hopefully its something like that:

-The first part of the 21-22 season,  (Oct - Jan) he had 11 goals on 76 shots (14.5% shooting over almost 4 months)

-The last 2nd half of 21-22 , (Feb, Mar, and April of 2022) he had 2 goals on 84 shots (2.4% shooting over 3 months)

-The entire season of 22-23, he shot 14.7% (Entire season)

-October of last season, 23-24, he had 3 goals on 19 shots (15.7% shooting over the first month of the season)

-In November and December of last year he had 3 goals on 76 shots (3.9% shooting over 2 months)

-The remainder of last year he shot 19% in January, 7.3% in Feb-Mar, 18.8% in April.

-This year so far he is shooting 0% (no goals on 27 shots) in October.

Again, scorers are streaky, but when you look at the above numbers, COZENS is really REALLY streaky.  When you look at someone like Tage for example, he never really had even a 2 months period under 10%. 

With Cozens for his entire career, the shots and quality of shots are somewhat consistent but his accuracy is way, WAY streaky.

Hopefully he starts scoring, but maybe Cozens is just a player that is 'about' a 20 goal scorer on average, but there will be some years he only gets 10, some years he gets 30. Some months he will put in 6 or 7 in a month, other months he will have nothing.  Just way more extreme ups and downs than most other players.

I have been saying on here a lot recently...just get Cozens to 10% shooting and stay there for the season. It very well might be that he just isn't that type of player, He might have high peaks and low valleys of shooting. We can only hope if/when this team makes the playoffs, his 'shooting' is at a peak, not a valley at that moment.

 

 

And THIS is the reason, personally, would risk losing a little bit from the top line by swapping Benson and Peterka.  Cozens was at his personal best playing with both Quinn and JJ (and those 2 have tons of chemistry from coming up the ranks together).  He was in a scoring lull that year after a pretty quick start the year he hit 30.  But that line got put together and their tic-tac-toe plays gave him a couple of empty nets to find the twine and he was the most confident he's been at the NHL level the whole rest of that year.

Personally, believe he gets into his own head regarding his shot.  As you and others mention, he's getting chances, he just literally can't put a puck in a 24 sq ft window even without anyone or anything between him and that window.  If he starts to believe he can score, and he'll only believe that if he finally actually does score, then really do expect that he can get back to that 25-30 goal player we saw before he got the big contract.

But, right now, hate seeing the puck on his stick in the slot because we know we're hoping for a rebound that one of his wingers can get to, and so far they haven't been able to get there too often.

[EM88]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And THIS is the reason, personally, would risk losing a little bit from the top line by swapping Benson and Peterka.  Cozens was at his personal best playing with both Quinn and JJ (and those 2 have tons of chemistry from coming up the ranks together).  He was in a scoring lull that year after a pretty quick start the year he hit 30.  But that line got put together and their tic-tac-toe plays gave him a couple of empty nets to find the twine and he was the most confident he's been at the NHL level the whole rest of that year.

 

My first thought is no I do not want to do that. But why not? Its not just getting Cozens to hit the back of the net. If it helps Quinn also its a good idea.

[oddoublee]

I am all for the argument of where he belongs in the lineup - he is a 3rd line player - and that is ok. the 7 million dollar contract is what skews this. the team needed and still needs to find a 1 or 2 line Center. as the team stands now - we have one first/second tweener line, 2 third lines and 1 fourth line. 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Pimlach said:

He was playing poorly before that fight.  The fight is not the problem.   His decision making is the problem.  His decision to pick that fight is a prime example of a poor decision.  

I think the biggest problem for Cozens is the Buffalo Sabres and their recent way of doing things.    They rushed him and the expectations are just too high too fast for him.  

A rookie GM and a rookie coach tossed him out there with two other rookies,  and the coach said stop thinking, just attack on offense.  He had a great offensive year, but no real NHL coach is ever going to let him play like that again.   The Sabres then signed him to an albatross of a contract and now he puts even more pressure on himself.  He is consistently being asked to do more than he can maintain.   It didn’t take Ruff long to reduce his TOI, which is smart.  

Give him 3rd line minutes and simplify things for him and he will get more confident and better.  He also still needs to get physically stronger but most of his problem right now is confidence and workload. 

I’m afraid that Quinn has hit a similar wall.  He looks lost, is overthinking and overpassing, and he just not the same player in Ruff’s NHL system.  

The Sabres tossed several very young players into prominent roles, without proper coaching and veteran support, and they played an undisciplined system under Granato.   They learned wrong.  Some of them have a case of PTSD from it.  
 

This can be fixed over time by giving them more realistic roles on the team.  
 

The Dallas game actually looked like NHL hockey is returning to Buffalo.  

This is pretty much where I am on Cozens.  Yes, he's got too many games under his belt to just explain everything with "he's a young player" -- but OTOH he's grown up in a highly dysfunctional environment.  He's also 23, has a ton of tools, and is one of the few Sabres who burns to win.  That intensity is a really important component in a winning team IMHO.

He's finally getting real NHL coaching and I think he'll respond well.  I thought he had his best game of the season last night vs Dallas.  FWIW, he played over 17 min last night -- 4th-highest among forwards and more than TT or JJP.

He also hasn't gotten much help from his linemates -- although I think Quinn will also come around with more time with Lindy.

In the meantime, I think McLeod's line will continue to get about as much ice time as Cozens' line, although I'm sure this will fluctuate game to game.