The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[tom webster]

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Personally, I have started to post the analytics only in the last few months. For the previous 1.5 years I was basing my criticism of him based on play after play, game after game of watching him with my own eyes sink this team and make dumb play after dumb play.....

The Analytics have only been used recently to show just how drastic they can be to back it up.

Dylan Cozens has, analytically or with the eye test, been a very bad hockey player. When we have spent 1.5+ years posting screenshots and commenting on what we see with his play, many of us have nothing else to say about that part of his game so we have gone into the 'deeper stats'.

I personally think the reason he hasn't been moved yet is primarily because he does not have much value around the league because of what other teams analytics dept and their scouts opinion of him.  I hope the Sabres know he hasn't been all that good. But for a trade to happen, the other team likely has to value what you are giving them more than you do. In Dylan Cozens case...especially with his contract...he may be stuck here because the Sabres know he's a problem, but other teams think he is even a bigger problem than the Sabres think.

I hope I'm wrong on this one.

Edited 6 hours ago by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

30 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Why would any team help us by taking one of the 5 worst full-time forwards in the NHL, with 5 years left at $7.1 million per, off of our hands?

As I just mentioned above before I read your post...yeah.

I think his value may be a lot lower than most of us think, and his play along with the contract that was given to him put Adams/Pegula/the team in a bad situation.

-If they force a trade just to get rid of him, the return might be...rather small. A 2nd or 3rd round pick? A low-mid level prospect?  If that was the case, a certain portion of the fan base would be ALL OVER the Sabres because they will accuse the team of 'giving him away' or 'getting fleeced'.

-On the other hand, if they are afraid of the above, they can keep him here. And continue to have him make this team a worse team, contributing to more losses than victories.

[EM88]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

-If they force a trade just to get rid of him, the return might be...rather small. A 2nd or 3rd round pick? A low-mid level prospect?  If that was the case, a certain portion of the fan base would be ALL OVER the Sabres because they will accuse the team of 'giving him away' or 'getting fleeced'.

Should the Sabres move him and get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him I would be overjoyed. 

To get his contract off of the books and get rid of a player that has hurt you for the past 2+ seasons and get anything back would be a victory.

[inkman]

40 minutes ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

I’m glad someone is looking out for the sanctity of NHL GM intelligence 

[tom webster]

8 minutes ago, inkman said:

I’m glad someone is looking out for the sanctity of NHL GM intelligence 

I hope that’s not what everyone gets out of my post.

[spndnchz]

54 minutes ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Amen

[EM88]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Really? Who?

IF we throw out the analytic departments totally and only go by scouts and what we can see with our eyes, why would anyone love him. He makes costly mistake after costly mistake, many of them have been brought up on this board at the time of. Some have been documented by posters with screenshots and videos.

I would venture to say that if you only looked at what you see, there might be just as few teams interested in him.  How do we know any team in the league absolutely love him as a player? I highly doubt that.  If we are to go by past reporting, there may have been a deal for Cozens to Detroit worked out in December.  If that is true, we know the Sabres were interested in moving him.  So if they are interested in moving him, where are all the other offers?  I think there may not be great offers simply because he is not highly thought of around the league.

After typing most of this post I put my attention back to the game. He gets a penalty putting the team shorthanded. Just over 5 minutes into the game he takes an offensive zone draw and loses it clearly, almost loses his balance and spins around in the neutral zone, the puck comes to him and he has a open guy across the ice to pass it to without being rushed and he puts the pass 1-2 feet behind his stick.  If scouts are looking at his play, they just saw 3-4 below average plays in a matter of seconds.

We can see his bad play on television, but when you get a chance to go to the games and follow him for entire shifts those things happen often. If it was not for his above average skating speed and a good looking release, when you watch him you often wonder how he is even an NHL player at times.

Edited 4 hours ago by EM88

[inkman]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Most NHL analysts blasted the Panthers GM for the Seth Jones trade. GM has a Cup.  I guess he’s absolved of criticism because of the resume.  

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

For the previous 1.5 years I was basing my criticism of him based on play after play, game after game of watching him with my own eyes sink this team and make dumb play after dumb play.....

Same. And I had biases that prevented me from seeing it for a while (the dude looks the part — plus the whole Whitehorse thing). Then it started coming into focus - first sharply and then suddenly. He is a low IQ player.

 

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Same. And I had biases that prevented me from seeing it for a while (the dude looks the part — plus the whole Whitehorse thing). Then it started coming into focus - first sharply and then suddenly. He is a low IQ player.

 

He is a pretty fast skater. He puts the effort in.....how many times do we say players don't care or are lazy...but not him. Most of the time he tries hard. His shot is not accurate but his release LOOKS good.

Its just like the first period tonight. I'm not looking at analytics, I don't know what is expected goal percentage is or anything like that. Simple eye test..lost a key faceoff in the offensive zone, had a pass right to him that he fumbled and lost in his skates. On the SH goal he had all day and blasted the puck right into the shinpads of the defender and the puck went to the boards where he misplayed it leading to the 2on1 for the SH goal.  A penalty early in the game.  He got spun around by the blue line and almost fell, scooped up a loose puck and proceeded to pass it 2 feet behind the stick of a wide open teammate.

No statistics required. That was just his first period witnessed on TV.