The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[tom webster]

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Personally, I have started to post the analytics only in the last few months. For the previous 1.5 years I was basing my criticism of him based on play after play, game after game of watching him with my own eyes sink this team and make dumb play after dumb play.....

The Analytics have only been used recently to show just how drastic they can be to back it up.

Dylan Cozens has, analytically or with the eye test, been a very bad hockey player. When we have spent 1.5+ years posting screenshots and commenting on what we see with his play, many of us have nothing else to say about that part of his game so we have gone into the 'deeper stats'.

I personally think the reason he hasn't been moved yet is primarily because he does not have much value around the league because of what other teams analytics dept and their scouts opinion of him.  I hope the Sabres know he hasn't been all that good. But for a trade to happen, the other team likely has to value what you are giving them more than you do. In Dylan Cozens case...especially with his contract...he may be stuck here because the Sabres know he's a problem, but other teams think he is even a bigger problem than the Sabres think.

I hope I'm wrong on this one.

Edited Monday at 10:52 PM by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

30 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Why would any team help us by taking one of the 5 worst full-time forwards in the NHL, with 5 years left at $7.1 million per, off of our hands?

As I just mentioned above before I read your post...yeah.

I think his value may be a lot lower than most of us think, and his play along with the contract that was given to him put Adams/Pegula/the team in a bad situation.

-If they force a trade just to get rid of him, the return might be...rather small. A 2nd or 3rd round pick? A low-mid level prospect?  If that was the case, a certain portion of the fan base would be ALL OVER the Sabres because they will accuse the team of 'giving him away' or 'getting fleeced'.

-On the other hand, if they are afraid of the above, they can keep him here. And continue to have him make this team a worse team, contributing to more losses than victories.

[EM88]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

-If they force a trade just to get rid of him, the return might be...rather small. A 2nd or 3rd round pick? A low-mid level prospect?  If that was the case, a certain portion of the fan base would be ALL OVER the Sabres because they will accuse the team of 'giving him away' or 'getting fleeced'.

Should the Sabres move him and get a 2nd or 3rd round pick for him I would be overjoyed. 

To get his contract off of the books and get rid of a player that has hurt you for the past 2+ seasons and get anything back would be a victory.

[inkman]

40 minutes ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

I’m glad someone is looking out for the sanctity of NHL GM intelligence 

[tom webster]

8 minutes ago, inkman said:

I’m glad someone is looking out for the sanctity of NHL GM intelligence 

I hope that’s not what everyone gets out of my post.

[spndnchz]

54 minutes ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Amen

[EM88]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Really? Who?

IF we throw out the analytic departments totally and only go by scouts and what we can see with our eyes, why would anyone love him. He makes costly mistake after costly mistake, many of them have been brought up on this board at the time of. Some have been documented by posters with screenshots and videos.

I would venture to say that if you only looked at what you see, there might be just as few teams interested in him.  How do we know any team in the league absolutely love him as a player? I highly doubt that.  If we are to go by past reporting, there may have been a deal for Cozens to Detroit worked out in December.  If that is true, we know the Sabres were interested in moving him.  So if they are interested in moving him, where are all the other offers?  I think there may not be great offers simply because he is not highly thought of around the league.

After typing most of this post I put my attention back to the game. He gets a penalty putting the team shorthanded. Just over 5 minutes into the game he takes an offensive zone draw and loses it clearly, almost loses his balance and spins around in the neutral zone, the puck comes to him and he has a open guy across the ice to pass it to without being rushed and he puts the pass 1-2 feet behind his stick.  If scouts are looking at his play, they just saw 3-4 below average plays in a matter of seconds.

We can see his bad play on television, but when you get a chance to go to the games and follow him for entire shifts those things happen often. If it was not for his above average skating speed and a good looking release, when you watch him you often wonder how he is even an NHL player at times.

Edited Tuesday at 12:24 AM by EM88

[inkman]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

While making no judgements on any posters and being of the mind that Dylan Cozens hasn’t progressed as expected and may never be worthy of his contract, I have to say that I’m always amused when people talk about analytics and act like it’s an absolute science with universally accepted data. 
If that was the case then 98 percent, of front office staff positions would be out of work. 
Most of the data is open to interpretation. Each analytics department has numbers they rely on. Even within those departments, there is debate as to which numbers matter, what really is the cause and effect and which players will improve and which won’t.

I just needed to say that.

There are teams that absolutely love Cozens and while some of these teams might be “dumb,” they’ve overcome this “dumbness” to be solidly in the playoff race and believe he could help them in said playoffs.

Most NHL analysts blasted the Panthers GM for the Seth Jones trade. GM has a Cup.  I guess he’s absolved of criticism because of the resume.  

[That Aud Smell]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

For the previous 1.5 years I was basing my criticism of him based on play after play, game after game of watching him with my own eyes sink this team and make dumb play after dumb play.....

Same. And I had biases that prevented me from seeing it for a while (the dude looks the part — plus the whole Whitehorse thing). Then it started coming into focus - first sharply and then suddenly. He is a low IQ player.

 

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Same. And I had biases that prevented me from seeing it for a while (the dude looks the part — plus the whole Whitehorse thing). Then it started coming into focus - first sharply and then suddenly. He is a low IQ player.

 

He is a pretty fast skater. He puts the effort in.....how many times do we say players don't care or are lazy...but not him. Most of the time he tries hard. His shot is not accurate but his release LOOKS good.

Its just like the first period tonight. I'm not looking at analytics, I don't know what is expected goal percentage is or anything like that. Simple eye test..lost a key faceoff in the offensive zone, had a pass right to him that he fumbled and lost in his skates. On the SH goal he had all day and blasted the puck right into the shinpads of the defender and the puck went to the boards where he misplayed it leading to the 2on1 for the SH goal.  A penalty early in the game.  He got spun around by the blue line and almost fell, scooped up a loose puck and proceeded to pass it 2 feet behind the stick of a wide open teammate.

No statistics required. That was just his first period witnessed on TV.

[LTS]

20 hours ago, EM88 said:

If Dylan Cozens takes the ice as a member of the Buffalo Sabres the first game after this season's trade deadline, it would seem to prove 1 of 2 or 3 things, if not all:

1.)  Lindy Ruff, or any other previous coaching staff this team has had, can not evaluate an effective hockey player from an ineffective one. His play that is visible to all and his simple numbers show he has been a bad hockey player.

2.)  The Analytics department and the rest of the front office does not even show up to work, they simply take a paycheck and do nothing. As many people have posted to this forum, if you take a deep dive on many of his underlying analytics, he might be one of the worst 5 full time forwards in the entire NHL and that stretches back even to his 31 goal season.

3.)  Dylan Cozens is "Terry Pegula's boy" and he will not allow him to be moved.

Dylan Cozens is more of an off-season move but it might be a move made between non-contending teams.  So I wouldn't lock in your choices where regarding the deadline.

17 hours ago, EM88 said:

Really? Who?

IF we throw out the analytic departments totally and only go by scouts and what we can see with our eyes, why would anyone love him. He makes costly mistake after costly mistake, many of them have been brought up on this board at the time of. Some have been documented by posters with screenshots and videos.

I would venture to say that if you only looked at what you see, there might be just as few teams interested in him.  How do we know any team in the league absolutely love him as a player? I highly doubt that.  If we are to go by past reporting, there may have been a deal for Cozens to Detroit worked out in December.  If that is true, we know the Sabres were interested in moving him.  So if they are interested in moving him, where are all the other offers?  I think there may not be great offers simply because he is not highly thought of around the league.

After typing most of this post I put my attention back to the game. He gets a penalty putting the team shorthanded. Just over 5 minutes into the game he takes an offensive zone draw and loses it clearly, almost loses his balance and spins around in the neutral zone, the puck comes to him and he has a open guy across the ice to pass it to without being rushed and he puts the pass 1-2 feet behind his stick.  If scouts are looking at his play, they just saw 3-4 below average plays in a matter of seconds.

We can see his bad play on television, but when you get a chance to go to the games and follow him for entire shifts those things happen often. If it was not for his above average skating speed and a good looking release, when you watch him you often wonder how he is even an NHL player at times.

Given that it is known the Sabres and Red Wings had a trade agreed upon and the Red Wings paused because they decided to change coaches we know that at least the Red Wings wanted Dylan Cozens.

Trades between perceived "bad" players happen all the time. 

[mjd1001]

2 hours ago, LTS said:

Dylan Cozens is more of an off-season move but it might be a move made between non-contending teams.  So I wouldn't lock in your choices where regarding the deadline.

I'd ilke to see him moved now even if its for 'futures'.  

-Take the best offer of futures and use those in the offseason. Instead of trading Cozens in the offseason, you trade what you got for him at the deadline to improve the team.  If you find someone that thinks they can use him for a playoff push/playoff run, you might get somethign more valuable now than what HE would be worth as a player in the offseason.

-I really want to see this team play without him.  I'm convinced he hurts the team. I want to see this team play with no Dylan Cozens, no PP time, No dumb mistakes, no passes into his linemates skates, no costly turnovers.  Play Krebs more minutes, rotate some guys for a few games at a time from Roch...I don't care..I just want to see this team without him.

[EM88]

3 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd ilke to see him moved now even if its for 'futures'.  

-Take the best offer of futures and use those in the offseason. Instead of trading Cozens in the offseason, you trade what you got for him at the deadline to improve the team.  If you find someone that thinks they can use him for a playoff push/playoff run, you might get somethign more valuable now than what HE would be worth as a player in the offseason.

-I really want to see this team play without him.  I'm convinced he hurts the team. I want to see this team play with no Dylan Cozens, no PP time, No dumb mistakes, no passes into his linemates skates, no costly turnovers.  Play Krebs more minutes, rotate some guys for a few games at a time from Roch...I don't care..I just want to see this team without him.

Agreed.  Even if you think Adams may be fired so you do not want him making decisions as for who future players will be for this team, he can still 'cash in' current roster players that do not fit here for 'chips' that he, or anyone else can use in the future to rebuild the team.

If you get an offer for a player that is obvious is not a long term answer here, you take it. Truth be told, futures that can be used in deals in the offseason might be better to receive than a player back right now in a 'hockey trade'.

[LTS]

8 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'd ilke to see him moved now even if its for 'futures'.  

-Take the best offer of futures and use those in the offseason. Instead of trading Cozens in the offseason, you trade what you got for him at the deadline to improve the team.  If you find someone that thinks they can use him for a playoff push/playoff run, you might get somethign more valuable now than what HE would be worth as a player in the offseason.

-I really want to see this team play without him.  I'm convinced he hurts the team. I want to see this team play with no Dylan Cozens, no PP time, No dumb mistakes, no passes into his linemates skates, no costly turnovers.  Play Krebs more minutes, rotate some guys for a few games at a time from Roch...I don't care..I just want to see this team without him.

I understand but this team needs roster players, not futures.  The value of trades in the off-season is higher than trade deadline unless teams get into a resource war. That said, I don't think Cozens in the player that makes teams say "Hell yeah, Stanley Cup here we come!"  He's  the type of player teams look at that think a do-over could help finish his mistakes. So perhaps it's a trade with a non-contender, but I think teams are more likely to give up more, be it futures or players in the off-season.

As for seeing what the team does without him?  Does it matter?  If you believe they need to move him anyway the team will eventually be what it will be without him. This season is toast anyway.  I also think they likely don't want to mess up what's happening in Rochester right now.

 

[EM88]

5 minutes ago, LTS said:

I understand but this team needs roster players, not futures.  The value of trades in the off-season is higher than trade deadline unless teams get into a resource war. That said, I don't think Cozens in the player that makes teams say "Hell yeah, Stanley Cup here we come!"  He's  the type of player teams look at that think a do-over could help finish his mistakes. So perhaps it's a trade with a non-contender, but I think teams are more likely to give up more, be it futures or players in the off-season.

As for seeing what the team does without him?  Does it matter?  If you believe they need to move him anyway the team will eventually be what it will be without him. This season is toast anyway.  I also think they likely don't want to mess up what's happening in Rochester right now.

 

I want him gone the sooner the better.  There is not much left for me to hope for this season. As you said, the season is toast. But for the remainder of the season, I want to watch a team without him.  He just makes so many mistakes and it gets me frustrated watching him fumble around with the puck and make awful passes and plays, only to see him continue to be put out there over and over.

I am going to watch most of the rest of the season. I do not need, nor do I want to see him continue to play Center for the Sabres.

[MISabresFan]

Ship him to Rochester if you can.. Otherwise adios.

[Drag0nDan]

On 3/4/2025 at 3:45 PM, mjd1001 said:

I'd ilke to see him moved now even if its for 'futures'.  

-Take the best offer of futures and use those in the offseason. Instead of trading Cozens in the offseason, you trade what you got for him at the deadline to improve the team.  If you find someone that thinks they can use him for a playoff push/playoff run, you might get somethign more valuable now than what HE would be worth as a player in the offseason.

-I really want to see this team play without him.  I'm convinced he hurts the team. I want to see this team play with no Dylan Cozens, no PP time, No dumb mistakes, no passes into his linemates skates, no costly turnovers.  Play Krebs more minutes, rotate some guys for a few games at a time from Roch...I don't care..I just want to see this team without him.

The problem is the cap and years he has on his deal.  Any acquiring team is committing to 5 years and 35M for him - and beyond that they're adding a 7M cap hit for this season.  Any acquiring contender is going to have to send bad money back to stay under the cap.  The majority of deadline deals are somewhat short term in thought - you're building to win this season - while in the offseason you are remaking your team.  

[mjd1001]

12 minutes ago, Drag0nDan said:

The problem is the cap and years he has on his deal.  Any acquiring team is committing to 5 years and 35M for him - and beyond that they're adding a 7M cap hit for this season.  Any acquiring contender is going to have to send bad money back to stay under the cap.  The majority of deadline deals are somewhat short term in thought - you're building to win this season - while in the offseason you are remaking your team.  

If a team really wants him, they can take in his salary, and ship out a salary to the Sabres that is shorter term. With the cap going up, and the offseason giving all teams a chance to work the cap....again if they want him its not an issue for many other teams.

My question from the beginning is....who actually WANTS him?  I think his value is worth a lot less than many on this forum think.

[Drag0nDan]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

If a team really wants him, they can take in his salary, and ship out a salary to the Sabres that is shorter term. With the cap going up, and the offseason giving all teams a chance to work the cap....again if they want him its not an issue for many other teams.

My question from the beginning is....who actually WANTS him?  I think his value is worth a lot less than many on this forum think.

That's another issue entirely - so many L-NTC's on the type of deals that Buffalo would need to be bringing on.  So you're looking at a player who had their RFA years bought out, which is unlikely as most teams that signed these guys did so with the plan to keep them in the fold.  

[Flashsabre]

There are plenty of GMs that will line up for Cozens. Young, big, fast centre that can score.

The thinking will be “Buffalo is an absolute tire fire of a franchise@ Het him out of that environment, put him in ours and he will find his game again.”

Just like many here think Power is useless. He would be in huge demand on the trade market.

[Carmel Corn]

After watching him closely tonight, I can't stand the sight of him anymore.  Complete coward and showed zero interest to help Dahlin when our captain was getting roughed up twice.  Strip the "A" off his sweater and sit him out.  He is a complete waste of $7m per year and I'd love to see him gone tomorrow as GMKA's final action as GM (wishful thinking on my part to see them both gone).

[Second Line Center]

3 goals since December 

 

Something is very very wrong with him.  

[mjd1001]

6 hours ago, Second Line Center said:

3 goals since December 

 

Something is very very wrong with him.  

Yes and no.

His scoring going down isn't a sign of something wrong with him. He goes into streaks like this throughout his career. Currently he has 3 goals through 23 games since we have been in 2025.

-Last year from March 3-April 9, he played 17 games with only 1 goal.

-Last year from October 29-Jan 9, he played 31 games with only 3 goals.

-Even in his 31 goal season 2 years ago, he went 10 games without a goal in the middle of the season.

Some guys are streaky. Cozens is really, REALLY streaky.

The issue isn't a slump of 3 goals in 23 games recently. The issue IS:

-only 11 goals in 61 games this season

-16.9 goals per 82 games for the past 2 seasons

-18.5 goals per 60 for his career (INCLUDING his good year)

All this for a player who has an "A", is being piad $7 per year, can't play defense, has been a negative player ever year of his career (Tuch has been positive every year here even on this team) and as time goes on Cozens less and less wants to defend teammates...like Dahlin being double-teamed last night and Cozens standing 2 feet away and doing nothing.

Edited Friday at 11:32 AM by mjd1001

[Sidc3000]

After last night, get rid of this piece of s#it.