The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[dudacek]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

That's not what I am asking. What are the skills that he brings that are above replacement level? What is it that makes Cozens good? Skating, shooting, tenacity, physicality, vision, iq, defensive acumen ect... what is it?

I'll bite.

He is 6'3" right-handed centre who competes hard and can skate and shoot the puck at speeds in the upper 3rd to quarter of the league.

The concept of Cozens ticks a lot of scouting boxes. Too bad about his ability to use those tools.

 

[EM88]

I am starting to like some of the analytics sites the more I play with them.

I wanted to see who was best with and without Cozens, but not just this season. His numbers and his analytics this season are bad, but what about going back and including the last 3 seasons combined, including his 31 goal season? A lot of posters say they want him to get back to playing like he did 2 years ago so these number are including that season, for those who played with him then.

In that time period in even strength play goal differential playing with Cozens vs playing with anyone else besides Cozens from naturalstattrick.com:

Alex Tuch with Cozens -4 goal differential, without Cozens +40

Jack Quinn with Cozens -15 goal differential, without Cozens -2

Jason Zucker with Cozens -8, without Cozens +13

Jiri Kulich with Cozens even, without Cozens +2

JJ Peterak with Cozens -20, without Cozens +22

Jordan Greenway with Cozens even, without Cozens +4

Peyton Krebs with Cozens -4, without Cozens even.

Tage Thompson with Cozens -16, without Cozens +38.

Zack Benson with Cozens -2, without Cozens +2

As far as D-men:

Dahlin with Cozens -2, without Cozens +29

Byram with Cozens -5, without Cozens +15

Owen Power with Cozens -9, without Cozens +17

Samuelsson with Cozens even, without Cozens +15

Even Jeff Skinner with Cozens -2, without Cozens +25

Every player of consequence on this team that has played with Cozens, not just this year but anytime they have played with him even though his career year of 2 years ago, has been worse, sometimes considerably, when sharing the ice with him.  If those numbers held, this would probably be a playoff team at least 2 of the last 3 years if you could remove the time Cozens was on the ice.

I found these using the line tool under the player column on the side and then looked at total goals for vs goals allowed in each player comparing to Cozens even strength.

 

Edited yesterday at 07:59 PM by EM88

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, JohnC said:

A few years ago, he scored 31 goals and had 37 assists. You may be dismissive of that production but I'm not. Cozens is not a finesse player. He's a grinder who has shown that he can score. We need more players, not less, who play with a degree of physicality. I would love for him to get back on track. Right now, he's pressing and playing with too much self-manufactured stress. If he could get back to the form that he demonstrated a couple of years ago, I would be more than pleased. 

So he's physical. That's what we got, he is big and has a physical element, he is basically lesser Alex Tuch. 

To the bold, havent mentioned his production that will be 2 full seasons old but since you bring it up, there is a lot of evidence that that might have been an outlier year. I think he can do that a couple more times but I don't believe that Dylan Cozens is a consistent 30g scorer or a 70pt player in the NHL. His pp production or massive lack there of will keep him out of that realm. Cozens is not a finesse player is a short hand way of saying Cozens can't use his soft skills to get things done. That's a massive problem. Tkachuk is a physical player with finesse, Cozens is a physical player who certainly at minimum lacks vision and passing skills. It is why he is so bad on the PP. 

29 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I'll bite.

He is 6'3" right-handed centre who competes hard and can skate and shoot the puck at speeds in the upper 3rd to quarter of the league.

The concept of Cozens ticks a lot of scouting boxes. Too bad about his ability to use those tools.

 

Its not a trick, I am genuinely curious as to what skills ppl believe cozens brings to the table. 

[JohnC]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

So he's physical. That's what we got, he is big and has a physical element, he is basically lesser Alex Tuch. 

To the bold, havent mentioned his production that will be 2 full seasons old but since you bring it up, there is a lot of evidence that that might have been an outlier year. I think he can do that a couple more times but I don't believe that Dylan Cozens is a consistent 30g scorer or a 70pt player in the NHL. His pp production or massive lack there of will keep him out of that realm. Cozens is not a finesse player is a short hand way of saying Cozens can't use his soft skills to get things done. That's a massive problem. Tkachuk is a physical player with finesse, Cozens is a physical player who certainly at minimum lacks vision and passing skills. It is why he is so bad on the PP. 

Its not a trick, I am genuinely curious as to what skills ppl believe cozens brings to the table. 

If he is in the vicinity of being an Alex Tuch play, I'll gladly accept it. 

I agree with you that Tkachuk is in a higher strata. That's well known. 

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, EM88 said:

Every player of consequence on this team that has played with Cozens, not just this year but anytime they have played with him even though his career year of 2 years ago, has been worse, sometimes considerably, when sharing the ice with him.  If those numbers held, this would probably be a playoff team at least 2 of the last 3 years if you could remove the time Cozens was on the ice.

 

The bolded above....on the surface...does not seem possible. However the 'eye test' often tells us that absurdly dumb, unaware plays he makes costs the Sabres a loss several times per year. And as you posted above, some basics analytics actually backs that up.

[LGR4GM]

Just now, JohnC said:

If he is in the vicinity of being an Alex Tuch play, I'll gladly accept it. 

I agree with you that Tkachuk is in a higher strata. That's well known. 

He isn't in the vicinity, almost everything we look at from the eye test to analytics says the Sabres get worse when Cozens is on the ice. Hence why I said "lesser"

[mjd1001]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If he is in the vicinity of being an Alex Tuch play, I'll gladly accept it. 

I agree with you that Tkachuk is in a higher strata. That's well known. 

I think I posted yesterday, if moved to wing he could be "Alex Tuch lite", meaning he could give you basically what Tuch gives you on wing, minus a little tiny bit (but still good enough to be potentially a postive player there)

They both are aggressive skaters, they both are good skaters, they both have a hard shot with a good release (Tuch a bit more accurate). They both have a combo of good size/speed.  

Tuch is much, much more effective and valuable because he those traits are better suited at wing, which is where he plays. Cozens does not.

We dont' really know if Cozens skills will translate to being effective at wing though, becuase they refuse to play him there.

Edited yesterday at 08:04 PM by mjd1001

[Flashsabre]

6 minutes ago, EM88 said:

I am starting to like some of the analytics sites the more I play with them.

I wanted to see who was best with and without Cozens, but not just this season. His numbers and his analytics this season are bad, but what about going back and including the last 3 seasons combined, including his 31 goal season? A lot of posters say they want him to get back to playing like he did 2 years ago so these number are including that season, for those who played with him then.

In that time period in even strength play goal differential playing with Cozens vs playing with anyone else besides Cozens from naturalstattrick.com:

Alex Tuch with Cozens -4 goal differential, without Cozens +40

Jack Quinn with Cozens -15 goal differential, without Cozens -2

Jason Zucker with Cozens -8, without Cozens +13

Jiri Kulich with Cozens even, without Cozens +2

JJ Peterak with Cozens -20, without Cozens +22

Jordan Greenway with Cozens even, without Cozens +4

Peyton Krebs with Cozens -4, without Cozens even.

Tage Thompson with Cozens -16, without Cozens +38.

Zack Benson with Cozens -2, without Cozens +2

As far as D-men:

Dahlin with Cozens -2, without Cozens +29

Byram with Cozens -5, without Cozens +15

Owen Power with Cozens -9, without Cozens +17

Samuelsson with Cozens even, without Cozens +15

Even Jeff Skinner with Cozens -2, without Cozens +25

Every player of consequence on this team that has played with Cozens, not just this year but anytime they have played with him even though his career year of 2 years ago, has been worse, sometimes considerably, when sharing the ice with him.  If those numbers held, this would probably be a playoff team at least 2 of the last 3 years if you could remove the time Cozens was on the ice.

I found these using the line tool under the player column on the side and then looked at total goals for vs goals allowed in each player comparing to Cozens even strength.

 

Wow those are some eye popping numbers. The biggest problem is that he can’t play centre. He can’t drive the bus with the puck on his stick. Move him to wing immediately and see if it helps. If Tage is healthy I would put him back in the middle and move Cozens to the wing.

[mjd1001]

2 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

Wow those are some eye popping numbers. The biggest problem is that he can’t play centre. He can’t drive the bus with the puck on his stick. Move him to wing immediately and see if it helps. If Tage is healthy I would put him back in the middle and move Cozens to the wing.

Some people don't like how Tage looks playing center, and he isn't perfect at the role. But he is great with the puck at center and half-way decent with his defensive coverage.  That is why he may not 'look' like a prototypical playmaking center, but he does get the job done. Not Cozens.

Tage may not look to pass first, he may not carry the puck into the zone and look to set up his linemates like a true playmaker, but Tage's linemates ARE better when they play with him than without him. When Tage and Tuch (and whoever else is the other winger) are on a line centerted by Tage and they are all healthy, they can dominate.

Edited yesterday at 08:08 PM by mjd1001

[dudacek]

The Tuch comparisons are apt in my view, because their physical gifts are very similar.

Tuch is a far better player (underrated in my view) because he forces turnovers instead of gifting them to the other team, wins a majority of his contested pucks, and makes smart decisions, with and without the puck.

Cozens plays with a little more snark. Minus that, Tuch is what Cozens could (should?) be.

[Flashsabre]

3 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Some people don't like how Tage looks playing center, and he isn't perfect at the role. But he is great with the puck at center and half-way decent with his defensive coverage.  That is why he may not 'look' like a prototypical playmaking center, but he does get the job done. Not Cozens.

Tage may not look to pass first, he may not carry the puck into the zone and look to set up his linemates like a true playmaker, but Tage's linemates ARE better when they play with him than without him. When Tage and Tuch (and whoever else is the other winger) are on a line centerted by Tage and they are all healthy, they can dominate.

I agree and he is the much better option down the middle than Cozens. Go with Tage, Kulich, McLeod, Krebs as a centre spine and see how it goes.

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, EM88 said:

In that time period in even strength play goal differential playing with Cozens vs playing with anyone else besides Cozens from naturalstattrick.com:

Alex Tuch with Cozens -4 goal differential, without Cozens +40

Jack Quinn with Cozens -15 goal differential, without Cozens -2

Jason Zucker with Cozens -8, without Cozens +13

Jiri Kulich with Cozens even, without Cozens +2

JJ Peterak with Cozens -20, without Cozens +22

Jordan Greenway with Cozens even, without Cozens +4

Peyton Krebs with Cozens -4, without Cozens even.

Tage Thompson with Cozens -16, without Cozens +38.

Zack Benson with Cozens -2, without Cozens +2

As far as D-men:

Dahlin with Cozens -2, without Cozens +29

Byram with Cozens -5, without Cozens +15

Owen Power with Cozens -9, without Cozens +17

Samuelsson with Cozens even, without Cozens +15

Even Jeff Skinner with Cozens -2, without Cozens +25

 

Cozens HAS not made as many mistakes and his underlying metrics have been 'decent' (not great but decent) over the last 5-7 games and guess what? They Sabres have won 5 of the last 6. See how things work when one player doesn't drag you down?  Also, I think one of those games he played with Krebs and actually did primarily play wing, but just one game.

But.....The numbers show that in the past, this team is a good team, a playoff level team, when Cozens is not on the ice. When he IS on the ice, they are one of the worst teams in the league.   Not through a few games, not over a small sample size, but over a sample size of YEARS.

The numbers above show a simple truth. Every single critical player on this team has the puck in the opposition net more and allows the puck in their own net less when on the ice, in almost every line combination, over good years and bad years, when Dylan Cozens does not share the ice with them.

He needs to move to wing. Or to be traded. Or to instantly become a better player than he ever has been. If any of those things happen, this team is right away a MUCH better team.

If Cozens gets moved...or if by some crazy increase in his play on the Sabres....by the end of the year he gets his plus-minus into the single-digit negatives from where it is now...I'd wager that the Sabres would be one of the better teams (top 10 in the league) over the remainder of the season.

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, JohnC said:

I will again state what I have often stated: Power should not be moved. Full stop. That doesn't mean that I'm against making deals. There is no question that a player such as Tkachuk could have a material impact on our roster. But I'm not sure he would want to come here and I'm not sure that he would be willing to sign an extension to remain here. This organization certainly does have assets in players, prospects and draft picks to parlay. My concern right now is that our GM is not in a strong position when negotiating deals. If your desire is to have a significant deal done, I would rather wait until the offseason. 

I have taken the position that with a few smart midsized deals (not bonanza deals) that this roster can be upgraded and more prudently constructed to be a  competitive team. The model I would like to follow is the Washington Capitals. Their smart organization made a series of smart medium deals that made it one of the better teams in the league and a serious cup contender.   

Or make a Power/Tkachuk deal, trade Cozens and sign Raantanen in the off season. 

I'm just throwing that out there to say there are always things that can be done and there are wild and crazy things and big things and small things and this GM does not seem very active or competitive and just seems prepared to wait for his beloved draft choices to develop. Other GMs make moves and try things. Some work some don't but they try. 

We have players teams want. We have picks and prospects. We have cap space and an increasing cap. We have an owner who is filthy rich and has money to burn if he would want to. What we don't seem to have is a will and a real desire to try to win. 

[bob_sauve28]

🍎🍎🍎

And a great interview following the game.

 

Go Dylan!