The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25

[Flashsabre]

https://www.nhltraderumors.me/2024/11/wild-rumors-marco-rossi-could-be-on-move.html
 

Chris Johnson says Rossi could be used in a 1 for 1 trade. I know it was said last year Minny wants more size.

If the Wild offered Rossi for Cozens would people consider it? Rossi has 15 points and is +7 right now. Cozens has struggled.

Rossi played junior in Ottawa with Quinn.

I’m not sure how I would feel about that deal. I like Cozens but he has continued to struggle and I don’t see him as having the hockey IQ to be a 2C. Rossi has the brains and skills but does not have the size/speed combo Cozens has.

[steveoath]

Interesting proposal. I really wanted Rossi at the time. Not sure why Wild would be getting ready to trade tbh. If Cozens doesn’t pick up soon then I’d think about it. But Adams wouldn’t trade one of his guys imo. 

[mjd1001]

Rossi and Cozens seem to be opposite type players in many ways:

Cozens is 6'3" and 210. Rossi is 5'9" and 180.

Cozens is fast (usually in the top 20-25 percentile in terms of top speed), Rossi is not (metrics have him in the bottom 50% of skating speed)

Cozens is, frankly a bad shooter. (Career 10% and dropping, hasn't shot in double digits since 2022-23)  Rossi is a pretty good shooter (14% this year, 12.6% last year)

Cozens likes to take his shots a bit farther out (he works a lot more than average from the dots to the top of the circle).  Rossi works from the dots in to the goal crease for a greater percentage of his shots.

Cozens is VERY hot and cold. (between this year and last year he has had 5 different streaks of 8 games or more without a goal)  Rossi is more consistent scoring (Between this year and last year, he only had 1 streak of 8 games or more without a goal)

In terms of size, style, and consistency, they are really really different.

Edited November 22, 2024 by mjd1001

[Mr Peabody]

Cozens seems to be a Lindy guy and doubt he’s going anywhere.  His scoring is lagging the improvement the rest of his game has taken since the season started but I believe it will come along.  
 

Rossi came in with a solid physical build but once Cozens builds his strength I think his upside is very high.  I always thought it was tough to judge Rossi because  he was a man against boys. 

[bob_sauve28]

Article on Cozens

 

https://www.diebytheblade.com/the-curious-case-of-dylan-cozens/

 

When it comes to Cozens, there is a reason so many teams are circling the Sabres for his services. Dylan is a little different from the other youthful players for Buffalo. He is the closest thing we have among the young talent to being a great all around player. Solid in all aspects of the game. Sure his offense is struggling right now but I don’t think many would doubt his heart. He is a tough kid too, playing with more passion than his teammates usually. He also has better size than Quinn and Peterka and Kulich and others. There are leadership qualities there too as Cozens has not been afraid to call out the team before. And we have seen his scoring talents already, he just needs to find his groove again.

At this point, we can not give up on such a valuable young hockey player. It would be short sighted. We all know the success stories of other former players traded away in the past 5 years. The Sabres need to stick it out with Cozens. The scoring will return with more experience and better talented line mates. If there is one young core piece at the forward position that Buffalo can’t afford to lose, it is him.

[bob_sauve28]

 

Most young NHL players will struggle for 2 or 3 seasons earlier in their career. Even if they have strong rookie or second year success. It is a real trend. For whatever reason, many players take a step back for a few seasons before eventually taking off again. Look no further than Washington Capitals leading scorer Dylan Strome. The 27 year old has 38 points in 33 games this year. He put up 67 points last season and 65 the year before. He is playing his best hockey after age 25. Before that, he struggled through 3 straight years of under performing. His only strong season early on was his first full year with Chicago after Arizona moved him. Strome carried a “bust” label for a while there after 3 seasons of struggling but just look at him now. Time, experience and determination has finally made him a strong NHL player. Many years after being selected 3rd overall in his draft.

 

Another example, J.T. Miller for Vancouver. He had 56 points in his 4th NHL season, his highest total to that point. He then went 3 straight seasons not coming close to that number before suddenly breaking out with 72 points. He has since gone on to score more than 80 points a year in 3 of the next 4 seasons. He too did not become dominant until after he was over 25 years old.

Now let’s look at superstar Nathan MacKinnon. He scored 63 points in his rookie year and he looked to be unstoppable. Yet he went the next 3 seasons in the league not matching or eclipsing that point total. Then suddenly in year 5 he scored 97 points and has never looked back. MacKinnon was so talented he took off well before age 25. But he still managed that 3 year “setback” that so many seem to do.

[Pimlach]

6 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

 

Most young NHL players will struggle for 2 or 3 seasons earlier in their career. Even if they have strong rookie or second year success. It is a real trend. For whatever reason, many players take a step back for a few seasons before eventually taking off again. Look no further than Washington Capitals leading scorer Dylan Strome. The 27 year old has 38 points in 33 games this year. He put up 67 points last season and 65 the year before. He is playing his best hockey after age 25. Before that, he struggled through 3 straight years of under performing. His only strong season early on was his first full year with Chicago after Arizona moved him. Strome carried a “bust” label for a while there after 3 seasons of struggling but just look at him now. Time, experience and determination has finally made him a strong NHL player. Many years after being selected 3rd overall in his draft.

 

Another example, J.T. Miller for Vancouver. He had 56 points in his 4th NHL season, his highest total to that point. He then went 3 straight seasons not coming close to that number before suddenly breaking out with 72 points. He has since gone on to score more than 80 points a year in 3 of the next 4 seasons. He too did not become dominant until after he was over 25 years old.

Now let’s look at superstar Nathan MacKinnon. He scored 63 points in his rookie year and he looked to be unstoppable. Yet he went the next 3 seasons in the league not matching or eclipsing that point total. Then suddenly in year 5 he scored 97 points and has never looked back. MacKinnon was so talented he took off well before age 25. But he still managed that 3 year “setback” that so many seem to do.

Agree.  This 2 to 3 year scoring slump is something I’ve seen for the last 50+ years.  I don’t know why it happens but it does happen to some players (not all).  They set high expectations early and then take a few years to get back - meanwhile they are learning how to be a pro.   Cozens having to play with young line mates, younger than him, and play high minutes, could be part of it.  I think it was a big stretch to make him 2C so quickly, especially with the added caveat of making the playoffs after a 13 year drought.   
 

When people talk about trading Cozens and Byram for Petterson I cringe.  The Canucks will benefit from that for a long time.  I think both Cozens and Byram will be better than Petterson in the next few years.  

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

Agree.  This 2 to 3 year scoring slump is something I’ve seen for the last 50+ years.  I don’t know why it happens but it does happen to some players (not all).  They set high expectations early and then take a few years to get back - meanwhile they are learning how to be a pro.   Cozens having to play with young line mates, younger than him, and play high minutes, could be part of it.  I think it was a big stretch to make him 2C so quickly, especially with the added caveat of making the playoffs after a 13 year drought.   
 

When people talk about trading Cozens and Byram for Petterson I cringe.  The Canucks will benefit from that for a long time.  I think both Cozens and Byram will be better than Petterson in the next few years.  

I'm very hesitant about them trading Bryam.  I really like his game and would love to see him here long term. I do question his re-sign-ability though and it may be an issue. They traded Mitts last year and I think the contract he ended up getting is going to be a lot less than what Byram is going to want.

Cozens, I am OPEN to him turning things around but I just can't share the higher level of optimism. The reason I feel better is not that he has scored a few goals in the past couple weeks, but that I haven't seen him make as many dumb/selfish plays without the puck. Maybe Lindy is trying to get something through to him and its starting to take hold.  

I still see him as only a 10% shooter long term.  Can he have another 30 goal season? sure, but I see him as guy that is not going to score 150+ over I think the next 5, overall he will average in the 20's at best.  So he NEEDS to become better without the puck, and he NEEDS to make his linemates better (he doesn't distribute well at all in the offensive zone.  I have seen him become a bit better without the puck, that is encouraging, but I haven't seen anything yet about him getting other players on the ice involved.  He's like a black hole with the puck, once it comes into him, it doesn't come out most of the time.

I do think Cozens and Byram is too much for Pettersson (with his contract.) if that deal was made, I'd need another usable piece coming back to Buffalo with it.

Edited December 26, 2024 by mjd1001

[EM88]

A very interesting Dylan Cozens stat to myself I just came across.

Since Dylan Cozens has been in the NHL, he has played 329 games.

In his career the Sabres overall as a team have been credited with 132 game winning goals.

Dylan Cozens has 4 game winning goals in 329 games. Less than 1 in every 82 games he plays.

For comparison the other top forwards:

Alex Tuch has 17 game winning goals, 1 in every 14 games played.

Tage Thompson has 15 game winning goals, about 1 in every 20 games.

Victor Olofsson had 14 game winning goals, about 1 in every 20 games.

Skinner had 10 game winning goals, about 1 in every 28 games.

Peterka has 8 in only just over 200 games, 1 in every 25 games.

He just might be the least clutch forward in the league considering how much ice time he gets in those situations.

 

Edited Saturday at 10:15 PM by EM88

[PerreaultForever]

I've been watching Cozens lately to try to figure him out. I think ultimately his decision making is too slow. Whether he's hesitating out of a lack of confidence or he just thinks slow is hard to say but when he gets the puck he doesn't react and act instinctively, there's delays and pauses and it allows him to be defended easily. 

I think he could thrive on a slower more structured type of team but he might just be incapable of playing well in this sort of up tempo type of thing we seem to want to do in Buffalo. the cliche "not a good fit" would seem to apply. So unless we change our style (unlikely) it's probably best to trade him. 

[inkman]

8 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

I've been watching Cozens lately to try to figure him out. I think ultimately his decision making is too slow. Whether he's hesitating out of a lack of confidence or he just thinks slow is hard to say but when he gets the puck he doesn't react and act instinctively, there's delays and pauses and it allows him to be defended easily. 

I think he could thrive on a slower more structured type of team but he might just be incapable of playing well in this sort of up tempo type of thing we seem to want to do in Buffalo. the cliche "not a good fit" would seem to apply. So unless we change our style (unlikely) it's probably best to trade him. 

I think it’s mental.  He thrived when he had no responsibilities just skate and make plays. Now that he’s being asked to make smart decisions and do the right thing, he has paralysis by analysis.  Overthinking every single shift.  He’s needs a therapist or something.  Maybe a drinking habit. Something to get out of his own head. 

[Carmel Corn]

10 minutes ago, inkman said:

I think it’s mental.  He thrived when he had no responsibilities just skate and make plays. Now that he’s being asked to make smart decisions and do the right thing, he has paralysis by analysis.  Overthinking every single shift.  He’s needs a therapist or something.  Maybe a drinking habit. Something to get out of his own head. 

Perhaps, but I think he’s been a tire fire ever since he lost the fight and got hurt last season.  Part of me thinks he’s also pi$$ed at GMKA and the organization for not having his back last season when he said the Sabres were being bullied.

[LGR4GM]

McLeod out played Cozens again tonight. 

[PerreaultForever]

41 minutes ago, inkman said:

I think it’s mental.  He thrived when he had no responsibilities just skate and make plays. Now that he’s being asked to make smart decisions and do the right thing, he has paralysis by analysis.  Overthinking every single shift.  He’s needs a therapist or something.  Maybe a drinking habit. Something to get out of his own head. 

Ya, I agree, he's definitely "thinking" and thus hesitating and that throws the plays off. idk the cause or anything exactly, we can only guess, but he's currently broken. 

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

McLeod out played Cozens again tonight. 

because he just plays a simple speed game. He just goes and makes instinctive plays. 

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Ya, I agree, he's definitely "thinking" and thus hesitating and that throws the plays off. idk the cause or anything exactly, we can only guess, but he's currently broken. 

because he just plays a simple speed game. He just goes and makes instinctive plays. 

I guess my thinking is.. I don't think he's thinking too much. I think he was a bad all-around hockey player before this year as well as every year of his career and that hasn't changed. 

He scored 31 goals one year... He still wasn't a well-rounded player. He still played poorly defensively. The difference was for one single year of his career, His shooting percentage, for whatever reason, was above his career average.He's reverted to what he is. And that is a 10% shooter, not a 15% shooter. 

The number of shots he takes, the location of the shots he takes, how often he distributes the puck to his teammates, the defensive mistakes that he makes, it's all the same as it's ever been.

When you look back at his 31 goal year, he still made terrible defensive plays. Then. He still was a non-factor on the power play. He still didn't score any game-winning goals, he wasn't a difference maker. 

He just has NEVER thought the game well, he's always been in that negative player for his line mates, even in his 31 goal season. We still see a game after game that he actually looks directly at the puck and he has no sense of what's going on around him. He has taken out one of his teammates now in three of the past five games that I've seen. Just because he doesn't even look where he's skating and He runs over them.

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 hours ago, EM88 said:

He just might be the least clutch forward in the league considering how much ice time he gets in those situations.

This is so Buffalo.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

McLeod out played Cozens again tonight. 

That's not exactly a high bar to climb over.  Kulich outplayed Cozens.  Kozak outplays Cozens when in town.  Even Krebs has outplayed Cozens of late.  

[EM88]

15 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

McLeod out played Cozens again tonight. 

There is a circle that I cannot square with Dylan Cozens.  If he is so bad, why does he keep getting opportunities?

I see what many people are saying. I see for myself the mistakes. The dumb plays without the puck. Him missing wide open teammates and instead blasts shots into the goalies chest.  It is all there for me to see.

He is the least productive Power Play producer maybe in the league.  I think he has the least number of Powerplay goals over the last few years of any forward in the league with as much ice time as him on the power play.  Many advanced stats show the powerplay functions better when he is not on the ice than when he is. Yet the coaches keep putting him out there.

As per the other message, he is not clutch at all. He scores one game winning goal every 82 games. Yet in close games the coaches keep putting him out there at the end.

Other users have posted videos of him on the penalty kill where he is single handedly responsible for goals allowed by being the only defensive player way out of position. Yet the coaches keep putting him out there.

Advanced metrics that some have posted recently show that players advanced stats like Corsi for, Net goals for minus goals allowed, have players that leave his line get better, and players who join him get worse. He is awful at making line-mates better and usually makes others with him worse.  Yet whenever there are line changes or opportunities to move him up to a higher line, the coaches keep giving him those chances.

From what I can tell this is not only this year but these things have happened for most of his career.  They have happened with him through various head coaches and assistant coaches.

I do know that coaches ultimately know a lot more about hockey than I do, and they have access to a lot of information than I do.

So to repeat myself from above, I cannot square the circle that Dylan Cozens, through everything we see and almost every measrable metric, is a bad hockey player. A hockey player that makes the team worse whenever he is on the ice. Yet how is it every coach just gives him chance after chance, and failure after failure he keeps continuing to get those opportunities and ice time?

Is he really a much better hockey player than we all think and we are missing it?

[mjd1001]

Just now, EM88 said:

There is a circle that I cannot square with Dylan Cozens.  If he is so bad, why does he keep getting opportunities?

I see what many people are saying. I see for myself the mistakes. The dumb plays without the puck. Him missing wide open teammates and instead blasts shots into the goalies chest.  It is all there for me to see.

He is the least productive Power Play producer maybe in the league.  I think he has the least number of Powerplay goals over the last few years of any forward in the league with as much ice time as him on the power play.  Many advanced stats show the powerplay functions better when he is not on the ice than when he is. Yet the coaches keep putting him out there.

As per the other message, he is not clutch at all. He scores one game winning goal every 82 games. Yet in close games the coaches keep putting him out there at the end.

Other users have posted videos of him on the penalty kill where he is single handedly responsible for goals allowed by being the only defensive player way out of position. Yet the coaches keep putting him out there.

Advanced metrics that some have posted recently show that players advanced stats like Corsi for, Net goals for minus goals allowed, have players that leave his line get better, and players who join him get worse. He is awful at making line-mates better and usually makes others with him worse.  Yet whenever there are line changes or opportunities to move him up to a higher line, the coaches keep giving him those chances.

From what I can tell this is not only this year but these things have happened for most of his career.  They have happened with him through various head coaches and assistant coaches.

I do know that coaches ultimately know a lot more about hockey than I do, and they have access to a lot of information than I do.

So to repeat myself from above, I cannot square the circle that Dylan Cozens, through everything we see and almost every measrable metric, is a bad hockey player. A hockey player that makes the team worse whenever he is on the ice. Yet how is it every coach just gives him chance after chance, and failure after failure he keeps continuing to get those opportunities and ice time?

Is he really a much better hockey player than we all think and we are missing it?

No, hes that bad.

The only explanation I can come up with is....he's Adams 'favorite' or Pegula's 'boy'....or someone just refuses to admit the contract is a mistake so there are orders to keep playing him. Being stubborn at the highest levels of this franchise.

[shrader]

18 hours ago, EM88 said:

A very interesting Dylan Cozens stat to myself I just came across.

Since Dylan Cozens has been in the NHL, he has played 329 games.

In his career the Sabres overall as a team have been credited with 132 game winning goals.

Dylan Cozens has 4 game winning goals in 329 games. Less than 1 in every 82 games he plays.

For comparison the other top forwards:

Alex Tuch has 17 game winning goals, 1 in every 14 games played.

Tage Thompson has 15 game winning goals, about 1 in every 20 games.

Victor Olofsson had 14 game winning goals, about 1 in every 20 games.

Skinner had 10 game winning goals, about 1 in every 28 games.

Peterka has 8 in only just over 200 games, 1 in every 25 games.

He just might be the least clutch forward in the league considering how much ice time he gets in those situations.

 

Or guys playing in the top line wind up for more chances at those GWGs. Or there is Olofsson who may as well have only been used in offensive situation. Each of those guys also should have more total goals too other than the one big year for Cozens, which of course means more opportunities at GWGs. 
 

I think you’re over-reading this one a bit. There may be a little something to it, but there’s a lot of noise around it. 

[mjd1001]

42 minutes ago, shrader said:

Or guys playing in the top line wind up for more chances at those GWGs. Or there is Olofsson who may as well have only been used in offensive situation. Each of those guys also should have more total goals too other than the one big year for Cozens, which of course means more opportunities at GWGs. 
 

I think you’re over-reading this one a bit. There may be a little something to it, but there’s a lot of noise around it. 

A few game winning goals in the next month can change the numbers drastically...that is for sure.

He's 2nd in total ice time for any forward this year behind Tuch.....and over his career with the Sabres he's 2nd in ice time only behind Thompson.  He's also not logging huge minutes with the Sabres up by 5 or down by 5.  So I would surmise....when game winning goals are scored (tie games)....His ice time mirrors his overall ice time....again, 2nd most among any forward for his entire career with this franchise.

He's had as many chances for GWG as anyone other than Thompson.

But, Cozens, for the last 2.5 years now, has pretty much been on the '2nd' line, and he gets almost every offensive opportunity as the first line (minuse about 1-1.5 minutes per game).  He is almost always out there in close games (up one, down one) and tie games at the end of the games.  Pluse he is a fixture on the PP....If not the first unit....he is on the 2nd unit, but he is out there on every single powerplay.

I'd say he gets 95% of the 'opportunities' that Tage and Tuch did....and in close games/tie games actually had more ice time than VO.  

So again, sometimes the numbers can be a bit out of wach due to sampel size, but his numbers are SO out there that there has to be something to it.

Edited Sunday at 05:19 PM by mjd1001

[Thorner]

41 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

No, hes that bad.

The only explanation I can come up with is....he's Adams 'favorite' or Pegula's 'boy'....or someone just refuses to admit the contract is a mistake so there are orders to keep playing him. Being stubborn at the highest levels of this franchise.

You aren’t a Cozens fan?

first I’ve heard of it 

[mjd1001]

3 minutes ago, Thorner said:

You aren’t a Cozens fan?

first I’ve heard of it 

Now you are just trying to get me going....

[kas23]

At this rate, I would be open to getting picks (or pucks) for him. It would be addition by subtraction. At this point, he is the player that is blocking. I won’t say that Cozens doesn’t have the heart, but there are better players that can take his place and we’ll get out of a horrible contract.

 

Edited Sunday at 05:26 PM by kas23

[mjd1001]

6 minutes ago, kas23 said:

At this rate, I would be open to getting picks (or picks) for him. It would be addition by subtraction. At this point, he is the player that is blocking. I won’t say that Cozens doesn’t have the heart, but there are better players that can take his place and we’ll get out of a horrible contract.

 

Yep, agree.

This franchise does not need more draft picks or prospects, they NEED players.  But what is Cozens value?

We think he was possibly on the way to Detroit (strong rumor) but Detroit is the one that nixed that (Strong rumor).

Also, several of the 'insiders' on 590 out of Toronto have been asked over the season about the Maple Leafs need for a 2nd or 3rd line center and when Cozens is brought up, those 'insiders' I have heard all say Toronto has no interest in Cozens at all.  When you listen to the hockey show every day, once in a while you will hear Toronto really REALLY wants a middle-6 center but Cozens no where near something they want.

I personally have only heard rumors of 2 teams considering Cozens in a deal this year. In both of those cases, the other teams said "we changed our mind, no way" or just "no way".

Maybe the rest of the league is seeing what many of us see. Maybe the scouting guys or analytics guys around the league see that he is a net negative player...that the slight extra offense he brings over a journyman/veteran center is more than negated by his defensive mistakes and how his linemates get worse when he is out there?  Mabye the would rather have that 'journeyman' guy than Cozens, and that isn't even taking into consideration his contract.

At this point, he might have virtually zero value on the open market to most teams, especially considering what kind of hockey player you are getting and then figuring those teams need to fit in $7m per year for many more years...and most teams around the league are at or near the cap already.