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The Cozens Conundrum, 2024-25


LGR4GM

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Dylan Cozens, Buffalo Sabres

It’s been 13 seasons since Buffalo last made the playoffs. Sabres fans are sick of being told they have a promising core or an elite prospect pipeline; they want meaningful on-ice progress.

The biggest reason the Sabres regressed last year, following a breakout 2022-23 season where they finished one point back of the playoffs, is that their offense fell off a cliff. Buffalo fell from being the league’s third-highest goal-scoring team in 2022-23 to ranking 23rd in goals for last year.

The Sabres won’t surge back up the standings until their top forwards return to the level they showed two seasons ago, starting with Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens.

Cozens, 23, exploded for 31 goals and 68 points in 2022-23 but dropped to 47 points last season. He’s also yet to develop into an above-average two-way driver, at least according to the underlying numbers. There’s extra pressure for him to reach his potential as a high-end top-six center because he’s got six years left at a $7.1 million cap hit.

Cozens hasn’t registered a single point through five games. He needs to come alive as a key offensive driver if the Sabres have any shot of climbing out of their early season hole. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5843094/2024/10/17/nhl-players-2024-25-pressure/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983&userId=350729

This was from the Athletic and it leads to my question, what do the Sabres do if Cozens is nothing more than a 15g, 25a +/-5pts type of player with below average metrics? How do they move forward and when do we look at UPL, Samuelsson, and the Cozens long contracts and point fingers at Adams for being to free wheeling with term and $$$?

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What does everyone 'think' he is. A lot of this is repetitive, but its nice to have one place for discussion about him.

-I personally think he is at the age (going to be 24 soon) and experience level (300+ games by mid season) that while he still CAN develop, you are close to getting to the point of what-you-see is what-you-get with him.

-So what is that?  To me he is a 20 goal scorer.  Obviously he has the 'potential' to hit 30, but he also has the potential to be in the teens.

-That isn't the issue though. The main issue(s) to me are 2 things:

--He is bad defensively. He is horrible positionally. He costs you quality attempts against and he costs you goals against in the way a replacement level player would not. He has been bad defensively, and he continues to be to this date, where he is a net negative on the ice for you without the puck.  If he hasn't changed that part of his game by now, I doubt it is in him.

--The 2nd thing is, coaches seem to 'see' his raw talent and put him out there over and over, top minutes, PP, PK., etc. Its like they SEE something they can mold into something better (they can't) and they insist they will be the one to do it (they won't.)  Because of that, he is taking away ice time from someone who might do better, or even a roster spot (if Cozens wasn't given $7m per year, might Mitts be here instead at $5.5m?)  The final thing is maybe its not the coaches, maybe Cozens is "Pegula's boy" and he wants him to keep getting chance after chance. Terry looks at him through the eyes of a fan who likes his 'talent', not through the eyes of a 'hockey person' who looks deeper into his game and sees all the flaws.

So, in my eyes, you have a young player, with pedigree (1st round pick), that gets a lot of ice time, that 'looks' like he should be a good player that just isn't that good.  Kinda sounds like a forward/center version of  Rasmus Ristolainen. 

What did you do with Risto?  Trade him for a first round pick while there still is someone else in the league that may think he has that value.

Cozens is at the same level as Risto was, to me.

The NHL is a cap league right now. Well, it hasn't been for the Sabres, but if you ever get good, teams spend close to the cap. Its not only how good you are that matters, but its how good are you for what you are getting paid.  There is no way he is close to being a $7m player.  

Edited by mjd1001
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9 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

What does everyone 'think' he is. A lot of this is repetitive, but its nice to have one place for discussion about him.

-I personally think he is at the age (going to be 24 soon) and experience level (300+ games by mid season) that while he still CAN develop, you are close to getting to the point of what-you-see is what-you-get with him.

-So what is that?  To me he is a 20 goal scorer.  Obviously he has the 'potential' to hit 30, but he also has the potential to be in the teens.

-That isn't the issue though. The main issue(s) to me are 2 things:

--He is bad defensively. He is horrible positionally. He costs you quality attempts against and he costs you goals against in the way a replacement level player would not. He has been bad defensively, and he continues to be to this date, where he is a net negative on the ice for you without the puck.  If he hasn't changed that part of his game by now, I doubt it is in him.

--The 2nd thing is, coaches seem to 'see' his raw talent and put him out there over and over, top minutes, PP, PK., etc. Its like they SEE something they can mold into something better (they can't) and they insist they will be the one to do it (they won't.)  Because of that, he is taking away ice time from someone who might do better, or even a roster spot (if Cozens wasn't given $7m per year, might Mitts be here instead at $5.5m?)  The final thing is maybe its not the coaches, maybe Cozens is "Pegula's boy" and he wants him to keep getting chance after chance. Terry looks at him through the eyes of a fan who likes his 'talent', not through the eyes of a 'hockey person' who looks deeper into his game and sees all the flaws.

So, in my eyes, you have a young player, with pedigree (1st round pick), that gets a lot of ice time, that 'looks' like he should be a good player that just isn't that good.  Kinda sounds like a forward/center version of  Rasmus Ristolainen. 

What did you do with Risto?  Trade him for a first round pick while there still is someone else in the league that may think he has that value.

Cozens is at the "Risto" level position for me right now.

The NHL is a cap league right now. Well, it hasn't been for the Sabres, but if you ever get good, teams spend close to the cap. Its not only how good you are that matters, but its how good are you for what you are getting paid.  There is no way he is close to being a $7 player.  

At this point, Cozens and Risto seem like two pees in the same pod... and I didn't like that pod the first time we had it. 

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He's only 23, he'll be fine.   

He's in a bit a of rut at the moment, seems to be thinking too much out there trying too hard by overthinking instead of playing instinctually.   

He has all the tools and he's been getting scoring chances.   

He works hard, I'm not concerned.

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36 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

Maybe he will do better tonight without his invisible winger Quinn. 

 

This is Kulick's chance to steal a position on the team. Take Quinn's spot until Quinn earns it back. Competition makes everyone better 

I don't think you want to throw a 20 year old kid with a left handed shot on the right wing and tell him to go figure it out. I would like to see him back in the line up but replacing Quinn with Juri is not a good option.  

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Maybe Cozens will have a breakout game soon. No bad mistakes or turnovers, five or six shots with one or two goals and help the team win. 

Tonight would be a good night. 

If that happens, I don't think we sound the Bell that all is clear with him, but if he's going to be on this team long-term, one of these games, he needs to take a step like that.

Sometimes the way to go from playing like a $1m per year player to a $7m a year Player.. is taking a step and becoming a $3m for a few games along the way.

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2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This was from the Athletic and it leads to my question, what do the Sabres do if Cozens is nothing more than a 15g, 25a +/-5pts type of player with below average metrics? How do they move forward and when do we look at UPL, Samuelsson, and the Cozens long contracts and point fingers at Adams for being to free wheeling with term and $$$?

UPL?  Cozens and Samuelsson have t lived up to their contracts for over a year. UPL has been below average for 3 games. A little early to draw a conclusion on UPL, I think. 

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Whenever Cozens plays for Team Canada, he's a star.  Why can't he bring that to his play with the Sabres?  By all accounts, he's a hard-working kid with speed, skill and a willingness to be a team player.  Why can't the Sabres coaches get the most out of him?  There's still time, but it's definitely frustrating.  And Quinn has been invisible so far this season, from what I've seen.

Also, I agree with the above post about UPL.  He has not played particularly well so far this season, but it's a bit early to judge whether he's lived up to the contract after 3 starts.  Although he was certainly not a difference maker last night, he was hung out to dry by his defense on multiple occasions last night.  On the late goal to tie the game, Power had 2 Pens in the crease area who had a chance to make a play and score the goal and he took out NEITHER of them.

I'm a big Lindy Ruff fan, but so far, nothing appears to have changed from last season.  I'm typically patient, but a poor early season record is exactly what cost them the playoffs the last two seasons, so if they don't fix things soon, the streak will extend to 14 years.  I think the Sabres should have gone beyond releasing Granato (who I like, but it was time) and they should have cleaned house on all of the assistant coaches too, letting Ruff pick his own guys.  Even if Ruff realizes that the assistant coaches are a problem and wants to make a change, who is going to be available mid-season?

Edited by msw2112
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Just now, msw2112 said:

Whenever Cozens plays for Team Canada, he's a star.  Why can't he bring that to his play with the Sabres?  By all accounts, he's a hard-working kid with speed, skill and a willingness to be a team player.  Why can't the Sabres coaches get the most out of him?  There's still time, but it's definitely frustrating.  And Quinn has been invisible so far this season, from what I've seen.

Also, I agree with the above post about UPL.  He has not played particularly well so far this season, but it's a bit early to judge whether he's lived up to the contract after 3 starts.  Although he was certainly not a difference maker last night, he was hung out to dry by his defense on multiple occasions last night.  On the late goal to tie the game, Power had 2 Pens in the crease area who had a chance to make a play and score the goal and he took out NEITHER of them.

I'm a big Lindy Ruff fan, but so far, nothing appears to have changed from last season.  I'm typically patient, but a poor early season record is exactly what cost them the playoffs the last two seasons, so if they don't fix things soon, the streak will extend to 14 years.

Culture change takes time. It isn't like flipping a light switch. That being said, Adams re-worked the 4th and part of the 3rd line.

He has to know the really big job, the one with the pain hardest to swallow, is now before him. Re-working the top lines, lines 1 and 2. Some pieces can stay, some......must go. And it's not just about subtraction, this will have to be subtraction with addition. The prices to pay to bring in the required superstar talent at line 1 center is going to be painful I'm afraid.

Peterka needs a better center than Tage, sorry, just calling it as I see it based on elevating the line.Then there's line 2, which needs to be addressed in a very serious way to get production going.

just one fans observational opinion.

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I’m not letting Cozens 100% off the hook.  No forward on the team, though, has more expected of him. Thompson is not expected to be a two-way offensive and defensive player. Until recent, nobody thought Thompson a leader. From the near beginning of Cozens’s time in Buffalo, the expectation and projection was near elite 2-way centre and future captain…oh, and he’s going to do that with 2 guys on the wing who are younger and less experienced than him (Quinn’s struggling, let’s put Kulich on that line!). He needs lowered expectations and some veteran help. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, msw2112 said:

Whenever Cozens plays for Team Canada, he's a star.  Why can't he bring that to his play with the Sabres?  By all accounts, he's a hard-working kid with speed, skill and a willingness to be a team player.  Why can't the Sabres coaches get the most out of him?  There's still time, but it's definitely frustrating.  And Quinn has been invisible so far this season, from what I've seen.

Also, I agree with the above post about UPL.  He has not played particularly well so far this season, but it's a bit early to judge whether he's lived up to the contract after 3 starts.  Although he was certainly not a difference maker last night, he was hung out to dry by his defense on multiple occasions last night.  On the late goal to tie the game, Power had 2 Pens in the crease area who had a chance to make a play and score the goal and he took out NEITHER of them.

I'm a big Lindy Ruff fan, but so far, nothing appears to have changed from last season.  I'm typically patient, but a poor early season record is exactly what cost them the playoffs the last two seasons, so if they don't fix things soon, the streak will extend to 14 years.  I think the Sabres should have gone beyond releasing Granato (who I like, but it was time) and they should have cleaned house on all of the assistant coaches too, letting Ruff pick his own guys.  Even if Ruff realizes that the assistant coaches are a problem and wants to make a change, who is going to be available mid-season?

Just a theory here..

Cozens plays "pond hockey" He chases the puck. He's not good when you tell him to be someplace and to stay there.  He wants to play like a bunch of teenagers who have never played together.  That is who he is.  Hard on the puck, but all-gas-no-brakes, even when the situation may call for brakes.

That style doesn't go well in the NHL. When you are playing teams that are well coached, that have players that have practiced and played together for years, they can take advantage of Cozens playing that way.

Now think of the World Championships when he plays for Canada.  He may be playing against 'lesser' competition (not as many NHL stars on some teams). But even bigger than that, those teams are thrown together. They get a fraction of the time to practice together compared to what he sees in the NHL. The systems the coaches give them i'm sure are a lot 'looser'.

You can succeed in the World because it is much, much less discipline hockey, simply because the players don't know each other as well and don't get to practice together. Cozens can thrive in that environment. But when he's playing NHL players who are getting paid top dollar to play a very tight and discipline NHL game....Cozens doesn't play against that too well.

I'm sure other NHL teams have advanced scouts watching the Sabres, they see his tendencies, how he is one of the most undiscipline forwards on the team. They take advantage of that and I'm sure they probably have some set plays to work against him.  In the Worlds, I don't think that happens, again, not enough time.

 

1 hour ago, LabattBlue said:

There isn’t a single player on this team or in the system, that if traded, I would be upset.  As far as Cozens goes, a big contract and underachieving would be a bad time to try and trade him. 

Now would be a bad time to trade him only if you think he will get better in the future and be worth more later.

If he ends up being a "Risto" type player, then the longer you wait to move him, the less you will get in return.

 

1 hour ago, Scottysabres said:

Culture change takes time. It isn't like flipping a light switch. That being said, Adams re-worked the 4th and part of the 3rd line.

He has to know the really big job, the one with the pain hardest to swallow, is now before him. Re-working the top lines, lines 1 and 2. Some pieces can stay, some......must go. And it's not just about subtraction, this will have to be subtraction with addition. The prices to pay to bring in the required superstar talent at line 1 center is going to be painful I'm afraid.

Peterka needs a better center than Tage, sorry, just calling it as I see it based on elevating the line.Then there's line 2, which needs to be addressed in a very serious way to get production going.

just one fans observational opinion.

I'm not saying 'better than Tage' but I could go with 'different than Tage'.

Tage is not a distributor. He is at his best when he is taking the shot. Tuch is a well-rounded winger and that goes well with Tage. A Sniper like Peterka....I agree he might be even better with someone who can feed him the puck.

They had someone like that last year (Mitts). But this year 2C is Cozens, not a playmaker for sure. I'm not sure where you get one.

 

36 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

Zero interest in trading Cozens; if he bottoms out in 2/3 years we can pay to dump him. He still has very high potential and the last thing we should be looking to do is trading Cozens. We need to work to help fix his confidence issues

But what about his away from the puck liabilities? Those aren't confidence issues, he has done that since he was a rookie and keeps doing them. He has shown amost zero signs of changing, wanting to change.

Even if he scored 15-20....to me that is his break even point in terms of being of any value to this team.  I just dont' know if he gets back to the 30 goal point.

 

14 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

I never thought of it that way, but it's a good theory.  Thanks for posting!

The worrying thing about that theory is....if he does thrive in a 'pond hockey' system, that is not what you want long term.

Think about this...as mentioned above, he plays well for Team Canada when there are very few 'systems' in place and you can kinda get away with doing your own thing.

2 years ago Granato said openly in several interviews on WGR that he wanted the guys to learn to score. He said defense could be taught later but he wanted them to play a bit looser and score.  That is what the team did and that is what Cozens did...that ONE year. 

The year after (last year) Granato stated the team needed to 'tighten up' and play better defensively. They actually did that the 2nd half of the year, but Cozens? He didn't adapt. Not only did he not play well defensively, but when the whole team played that 'nhl system', he floundered.

Ruff comes in and states they need to be even MORE discipline in their play...and Cozens is even worse in terms of production.

Lets go back to his first year under Kreuger.  Sure his rookier year and only half a season, but Kreuger was VERY rigid with what he wanted with his system..and Cozens had a total of 4 goals in half a season.

So, to summarize:

Under Krueger in a system that requires discipline: Bad Cozens (albeit his rookie year)

Under Granato when he openly states "go for it boys":  Good Cozens

In the worlds where there really isn't a system:  Good Cozens

Under Granato the next year where defensive responsibility is asked for:  back to Bad Cozens

In 5 games under Ruff who requires system play and accountabilit:  So far, AWFUL Cozens.

Maybe Cozens will still evolve, but all signs point to a player that when you require any kind of accountability and any kind of system that functions in a competitive NHL...he just doesn't fit well.

Edited by mjd1001
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22 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Now would be a bad time to trade him only if you think he will get better in the future and be worth more later.

If he ends up being a "Risto" type player, then the longer you wait to move him, the less you will get in return.

Zero interest in trading Cozens; if he bottoms out in 2/3 years we can pay to dump him. He still has very high potential and the last thing we should be looking to do is trading Cozens. We need to work to help fix his confidence issues

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14 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

But what about his away from the puck liabilities? Those aren't confidence issues, he has done that since he was a rookie and keeps doing them. He has shown amost zero signs of changing, wanting to change.

Even if he scored 15-20....to me that is his break even point in terms of being of any value to this team.  I just dont' know if he gets back to the 30 goal point.

I trust he can be a highly effective player with the right teaching and training; I have zero interest in dumping Cozens so he can explode elsewhere and win a Cup

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1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

I’m not letting Cozens 100% off the hook.  No forward on the team, though, has more expected of him. Thompson is not expected to be a two-way offensive and defensive player. Until recent, nobody thought Thompson a leader. From the near beginning of Cozens’s time in Buffalo, the expectation and projection was near elite 2-way centre and future captain…oh, and he’s going to do that with 2 guys on the wing who are younger and less experienced than him (Quinn’s struggling, let’s put Kulich on that line!). He needs lowered expectations and some veteran help. 
 

 

Not sure I've ever had this view of him and truthfully don't recall ppl saying that about him either. 

Also and this isn't directed at you specifically, there's a lot of blame being shifted off Cozens on to Quinn and Benson. Benson, has actually played fairly well, Cozens converted nothing Benson created. Quinn has been bad but putting Zucker there won't help impo. 

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51 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Just a theory here..

Cozens plays "pond hockey" He chases the puck. He's not good when you tell him to be someplace and to stay there.  He wants to play like a bunch of teenagers who have never played together.  That is who he is.  Hard on the puck, but all-gas-no-brakes, even when the situation may call for brakes.

That style doesn't go well in the NHL. When you are playing teams that are well coached, that have players that have practiced and played together for years, they can take advantage of Cozens playing that way.

Now think of the World Championships when he plays for Canada.  He may be playing against 'lesser' competition (not as many NHL stars on some teams). But even bigger than that, those teams are thrown together. They get a fraction of the time to practice together compared to what he sees in the NHL. The systems the coaches give them i'm sure are a lot 'looser'.

You can succeed in the World because it is much, much less discipline hockey, simply because the players don't know each other as well and don't get to practice together. Cozens can thrive in that environment. But when he's playing NHL players who are getting paid top dollar to play a very tight and discipline NHL game....Cozens doesn't play against that too well.

I'm sure other NHL teams have advanced scouts watching the Sabres, they see his tendencies, how he is one of the most undiscipline forwards on the team. They take advantage of that and I'm sure they probably have some set plays to work against him.  In the Worlds, I don't think that happens, again, not enough time.

I never thought of it that way, but it's a good theory.  Thanks for posting!

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It seems like every GM in the league are betting big money on their goaltender, so putting UPL there doesn't feel right.

The other contracts are not looking good. Samuelssons contract is long but if he can stay healthy I think he will improve.

Cozens has been one of my favourites on the team, but even my patience is running out. He is working hard, but he should do more working with his head instead of his skates. I honestly think he want to help the team more than anyone on the roster, but he tries too much. IMO There are three options to get him going. First, move Peterka to play with him and Quinn, it might get both going. Second, move him to the wing, first with Krebs at C, later hopefully a trade for a C. Third, if that is not working, then he has to be traded. I have not looked at what kind of trade that would be, and I really hope I do not have to either.

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39 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm not saying 'better than Tage' but I could go with 'different than Tage'.

Tage is not a distributor. He is at his best when he is taking the shot. Tuch is a well-rounded winger and that goes well with Tage. A Sniper like Peterka....I agree he might be even better with someone who can feed him the puck.

They had someone like that last year (Mitts). But this year 2C is Cozens, not a playmaker for sure. I'm not sure where you get one.

I can't use Mitts as an example, he's gone. I am looking at the inconsistencies, and Peterka is the only line 1 talent we have currently with consistency. We need a superstar line 1 center, and a line 2 with....consistency. I don't mind Tuch on line 2 wing, but yes, I'm honing in on Tage as part of a package to bring in a real superstar.

Understand this, until these moves are made, i.e. Tage and Cozens gone, superstar/elite puck possession with consistency in high volume danger play talent is brought in, nothing will change, in my most humbled opinion.

The cupboards of talent are overflowing, the lower end of the forward roster is a positive, the defense is maturing, last night not withstanding, the time to strike is now. Waiting is not an option with success, again, in my most humbled opinion.

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4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Not sure I've ever had this view of him and truthfully don't recall ppl saying that about him either. 

For what it's worth, I DO recall Cozens being projected as an all around player and potential future captain.  Coming in, he had a good mix of size (thin but tall and potentially able to fill out as he grew into a man from a teenager), speed, talent, and grit.  A skill guy that wasn't afraid to mix it up - which was true until he got his face broken fighting a goon.  Good teammate, etc.  Cozens still has those qualities, but he obviously needs to gain a lot of discipline and properly learn to apply his talents consistently in a NHL system.

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6 minutes ago, msw2112 said:

For what it's worth, I DO recall Cozens being projected as an all around player and potential future captain.  Coming in, he had a good mix of size (thin but tall and potentially able to fill out as he grew into a man from a teenager), speed, talent, and grit.  A skill guy that wasn't afraid to mix it up - which was true until he got his face broken fighting a goon.  Good teammate, etc.  Cozens still has those qualities, but he obviously needs to gain a lot of discipline and properly learn to apply his talents consistently in a NHL system.

The "all around player" part I think was people looking at his raw skill and thinking "he can hit, he'll be a great 2-way center". He hits, but he never got the 2nd part of the '2 way center' thing.  Since he got here, in all 5 seasons so far, he is one of the worst '2 way' players on the roster. 

He may 'look' like what many people want in a 2-way player, but in the back half of the ice and when he doesn't have the puck, he just is pretty bad, and has been all 280+ games of his NHL career.

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13 minutes ago, SabreFinn said:

It seems like every GM in the league are betting big money on their goaltender, so putting UPL there doesn't feel right.

The other contracts are not looking good. Samuelssons contract is long but if he can stay healthy I think he will improve.

Cozens has been one of my favourites on the team, but even my patience is running out. He is working hard, but he should do more working with his head instead of his skates. I honestly think he want to help the team more than anyone on the roster, but he tries too much. IMO There are three options to get him going. First, move Peterka to play with him and Quinn, it might get both going. Second, move him to the wing, first with Krebs at C, later hopefully a trade for a C. Third, if that is not working, then he has to be traded. I have not looked at what kind of trade that would be, and I really hope I do not have to either.

I am not a fan of Cozens as much as you, but with your ideas of what needs to be done with him, I agree almost 100%.

I also agree with Sameulsson...I think, with the example of one glaring mistake, he has played well. If I get a very young D-man, tied up long term who plays like he does, that contract looks better as time goes on.

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4 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

 

So, in my eyes, you have a young player, with pedigree (1st round pick), that gets a lot of ice time, that 'looks' like he should be a good player that just isn't that good.  Kinda sounds like a forward/center version of  Rasmus Ristolainen. 

What did you do with Risto?  Trade him for a first round pick while there still is someone else in the league that may think he has that value.

Cozens is at the same level as Risto was, to me.

 

I respectfully but strenuously disagree with the comparison where you put Risto in the same class as Cozens from a player and contract standpoint. Cozens is somewhat struggling and not producing offensive stats. But the effort and willingness to go to the dirty/tough areas is apparent. My suspicion is that he might be better suited as a winger. In the International Tournaments he has thrived on the wing against high end competition. That's one of my arguments why the Mitts trade was a bad deal for us. I thought putting Cozens on Quinn on the wings with Mitts centering made a lot of sense. 

I strongly recommend being a little more patient with him and even Quinn. The player that has perplexed me is Dahlin. He's simply not the same player that he was under Granato. Right now, it seems as if he is resorting back to the Krueger era being tied to a system instead of allowing his copious talent to take over. Maybe it is too much thinking and not enough free flowing???

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