Optimist Alert- Shooting % Regress to Norm

[JoeSchmoe]

I'm pessimistic on the makeup of this team, but we've got a small sample size here, and the team has actually played ok... They just haven't buried pucks. If our shooting percentages were at their norms, we're likely sitting 1-1-1 or 2-1-0.

Game 1 Moneypuck gives us a >70% win chance based on the scoring chances... Even though NJ sat back with the lead, teams can and do come back when the scoring chances are that lopsided. 

Game 2 was a NJ win through and through and is likely the source of our frustration.

Game 3 Moneypuck has us at over 80% win chance based on scoring chances. We dominated the game... 3rd period maybe not as much, but their chances were pretty limited IMO.

Eye test wise, I can't recall a stretch over the last two years where we've missed on so many Grade A scoring opportunities.

Hate to be behind the 8-ball already, but there's still hope!

 

[Doohicksie]

So you're saying our goaltending sucks.

[LGR4GM]

7 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

So you're saying our goaltending sucks.

how many goalies win 3 games in a row 1-0, 1-0, 1-0?

[mjd1001]

Statistically, if every Sabres player was shooting at their career percentage, with the shots they have taken, the math says at their career percentage the team SHOULD have 7.25 goals right now. They have 3.

[JoeSchmoe]

10 minutes ago, Doohicksie said:

So you're saying our goaltending sucks.

I'm saying our shooting percentage sucks.

[JoeSchmoe]

1 minute ago, mjd1001 said:

Statistically, if every Sabres player was shooting at their career percentage, with the shots they have taken, the math says at their career percentage the team SHOULD have 7.25 goals right now. They have 3.

Moneypuck says our expected goals should be 9.75. That metric doesn't factor in shooter skill, but it still we should have a lot more goals than we do.

[Stoner]

Smart people who are dumb as *****.

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Moneypuck says our expected goals should be 9.75. That metric doesn't factor in shooter skill, but it still we should have a lot more goals than we do.

I just looked at how many shots each player has taken, multiplied that number by their career shooting percentage, and added it up.  Regardless, the results are the same...based on the shots, number of shots, quality of shots, who took the shots, they should have a lot more goals.